Archie Lee

The good news is there are comparable players on that list who are not among the games most highly paid. Mittelstadt, as an RFA whose overall #’s don’t quite match his 5v5 #’s, should slot in below Thomas/DeBrincat and above the current Guentzel and Hyman deals. The bad news is, based on how the 1st half of this season has gone, we will likely go into next season as a bottom 10 team with our highest paid 8 players (current roster) making nearly 70% of the cap and with only one of them, Mitts, coming off a good season.

The Ice/Wild WHL franchise is in their first year in Wenatchee. I’m sure their management would love to go for it, but long-term it maybe makes more sense to try and build something bigger for 3-4 years down the road. Maybe they keep everyone and take a run if Benson had been sent back. I’m not a huge fan of trading 16-19 year old kids mid-season. Savoie has been through a lot of moves though and players of his status get the best billet homes. He will be taken care of. Moose Jaw will be loaded with fun players to watch in the 2nd half.

The Sabres are in a somewhat unique situation in that they have two waves of young players, each of which is worth getting excited about. Somewhat arbitrarily, you can separate these players by whether they were acquired pre-arrival of Adams and post-arrival of Adams. Pre-Adams: Luukkonen, Dahlin, Samuelsson, Jokiharju, R. Johnson, Thompson, Mittelstadt, Cozens. Adams: Levi, Power, Strbek, Krebs, Quinn, Peterka, Savoie, Östlund, Kulich, Rosen, Benson, Wahlberg. The pre-Adams group is, for the most part, ready as individuals to play their roles on winning NHL teams. Collectively they are young though. Outside of Skinner, Tuch and maybe Greenway and Clifton, there are no older veterans in higher-end roles to support this group. Indeed, we are largely supporting the pre-Adams group with even younger players acquired by Adams. If the players in the pre-Adams group are not yet near to reaching their full potential, then how long will it be until a critical mass of players from the younger group reaches their potential? If the plan is to slowly integrate the even younger players into the line-up, then fans will be asked for not just patience but for extreme patience.

Reasonable people would say we are in year 3 of the Adams/Granato plan. Maybe we are approaching the end of year 3, if you consider that Granato's 3rd anniversary as head coach is coming up March 17th. Prior to this season, the trajectory was positive. This season has thus far been a setback. My opinion, based on how the team has played for 2.5 months, is that there is little hope for a turnaround this season. We will see if Adams makes moves that reflect a belief that a change in approach is needed or if he will stay with a "trust the process" approach. I think Adams is kidding himself if he thinks the 9 years that preceded his arrival should have no influence on how he manages the team.

There is nothing inpatient about making smart roster moves or coaching changes in an effort to win more hockey games. There aren't many people who are actively calling for Adams to do something dumb and shortsighted. I do agree that patience is important. Those who want to dismiss the positive results Adams has rendered and ridicule him for having a 10-15 year plan are being rash. Things were very bad (frankly, as bad as it can get) when he took over and up until this off-season we had seen steady positive progression under Adams. He should rightly get credit for that. I think it would be a mistake though, for Adams to think he can operate in a vacuum where the 9 years out of the playoffs that preceded his arrival are meaningless to the fans and to the players on the team. Dahlin, Thompson, Mittelstadt are in year 6 of this. Incredibly, Cozens is in year 4 of it. Losing is what lead to some players not "wanting to be here". He is fooling himself if he thinks the same can't happen with the current group of players.

Good coaches get fired all of the time. Lots of fans want us to bring in Bob Woods who was fired because the Wild special teams were terrible. Doesn't mean he's a bad coach. Sometimes the sum equals less or more than the parts.

I don't doubt that bringing up Appert was determined to be the least disruptive way to proceed. I do think it was an unusual decision though and that it does speak to the lack of NHL experience on our coaching staff. I think that most NHL teams have an assistant or two on staff whose presence would make the idea of bringing up the AHL coach for the weekend a non-consideration.

As a fan, one can only judge coaching by outcomes. We aren't in the room, don't see what is being taught or how the lesson is communicated. I have no reason to think that any of our coaches are incapable or are out of their league as individuals. The desired outcome has not been there though. Matt Ellis worked as a development coach on the same Sabre staff as Granato (under Krueger). I don't know that there is any reason to think that Granato has had any issue with Ellis being on his staff. We don't know what discussions occur internally. For all we know, Adams may have been interested in flipping Ellis/Christie to Rochester for Peca/Alpert and Granato said no (I'm not saying this occurred; but what do we know about internal discussions that may or may not have occurred?). The bottom line is, regardless of who made the decisions, it isn't working. When things aren't working you can let the people you have entrusted to the job adjust and try and do better, or you can replace the people. For now, Adams is opting for the former over the latter.

I’ve been pretty critical of Adams for how his decisions have, in my view, contributed to this season being derailed. I see no need to be hyperbolic though. His isn’t a 10 year plan. He did not have the option of making moves to try and “remain” competitive. The team had not been competitive for a decade.

I think it is unusual that they wouldn’t just have someone on staff takeover. This is likely going to be for tonight and tomorrow I would guess, so maybe with it being two games they wanted a more experienced voice. Also, my recollection is that Adams coached the game or games that Granato missed during the Covid year and that Alpert was brought up to assist.

My 5th would be Wahlberg. I understand that they all won't make it longterm. But if the plan is to just let it play out and see which ones make it and which ones fall by the wayside, then we have a long road ahead of us.

I started this thought in the Olivier Nadeau thread, and then realized it maybe belonged more here. Nadeau being assigned to the ECHL is not remarkable. I'm not personally too concerned with the fate of any particular prospect. Nadeau will get ice-time and hopefully he finds a role in Rochester next year. His situation does though, perhaps, speak to the issue of us having too many prospects. This is particularly the case when one considers how young our current base of NHL players is. Barring a trade or two and assuming none of our UFA forwards are brought back, 10 of our 12 forward positions are spoken for next year. The two open positions would be 4th line wingers flanking Krebs. If we bump Greenway to the 4th line, that opens one middle-6 forward spot. Only Greenway is a UFA after next season. We have, I think, 5 prospects (aside from Benson, who I still consider a prospect) who project as top-9 forwards. Again, barring trades, and assuming not all will develop as hoped, we won't have room for all of them at the NHL level. This is even taking into account that their arrivals can be staggered over the next 2-3 years. Never mind the reality that adding a couple of 20-21 year old forwards to what is already the NHL's youngest roster, is not exactly what the Sabres need if they are trying to become a playoff team. What's the point of this post? If the Sabres don't even have room for their top forward prospects, what space is left for the B, C and D level prospects to develop? There is no oxygen left for Rousek, Nadeau, Poltapov, Cederqvist, Neuchev, Kisakov, Marjala, Huglen, Constantini, Richard, ..., etc.. Of course, the odds of any one of these players developing into a middle-6 NHL player is not high. But there is no room for them here, even if they do. Is Adams serious about winning? I think he is. The path to getting there is becoming harder to find though.

Brind'Amour? Or any experienced coach? Brind'Amour is a long shot I agree. Not absolute zero but near zero. There would be experienced coaches willing to come to Buffalo though, I'm certain of that. There are currently three coaches available who coached in the NHL playoffs last season (Gallant, Woodcroft and Evason), a guy who won a Stanley Cup 5 years ago (Berube). Some will get snapped up by other teams of course, but there will be more who join the list of unemployed (the list of high-end coaches who may be vulnerable to being fired after an early playoff exit is actually pretty long). There won't be enough chairs for everyone. If we want an experienced coach with a history of 45+ win playoff seasons, we will get one so long as we are willing to let Donnie go and pay what it would cost to bring in an experienced winner.

I think only one move would be needed. Jost and Johnson are out to make room for Thompson and Girgs. If Johnson comes back up, that is when another player would need to be waived, traded or sent down. I don't see a Comrie trade as making sense for anyone. While I do think he would be better on a team that plays with more structure (he probably should have just stayed in Winnipeg), his performance hasn't warranted interest from other teams. We likely would need to retain 1/2 his salary and I'm not sure that makes sense for us. The return we would get, even at 50% retention, might not warrant using one of the three retention spots. As we head towards the deadline, there might be players who would return more with retention (E. Johnson, Jokiharju, Girgs, Olofsson, Okposo, Robinson).

This must be a short term paper transaction. It leaves them with only 6 d-men on the 23. Something else will need to give in the next few days.

Every underperforming player on this team gets an asterisk from me for this season. This team was not, intentionally or otherwise, built to be successful. That is becoming clear. I do think there is a role for nearly every player on this team on a playoff squad, but collectively and with the current coaches they are not good enough. Until we get serious about icing and employing an overall playoff level team, there will be players who disappoint and who will be unfairly ridiculed for things that are largely out of their control. Power is currently in that group. I think of the nights when Eichel would be caught looking disinterested on the back check and people would think he is lazy. Or, the other nights when he would race back into his zone only to be lost in space, picking up nobody, leaving people thinking this guy can’t defend. Funny how those issues largely disappear on a veteran cup contending team with a top-level NHL coach. I don’t want to see any particular coach fired or any particular player traded. I just want to see the GM make moves and decisions that send the clear message that it is time to win. If we don’t do that soon, then we are just setting up Dahlin, Thompson, Cozens to be the next Eichel, Reinhart, Risto.

In what will almost certainly be our 13th consecutive year out of the playoffs, I won't make excuses for the team's record or performance or for management's failure to act. It is possible though that it just isn't realistic to expect this roster (the youngest in the league, with inconsistent goaltending), to play consistently good defence against NHL competition. It might just be that the team is not yet ready and able to play that particular way night in and night out. This perhaps supports your first point, that the roster as constructed is fatally flawed, but only if one views making the playoffs this season as a critical accomplishment (which most fans do, but which doesn't appear to be the case for the organization). I come back to what I've stated earlier, the core of the team's spine (top four centres, top four D, two best goalies), went into the season with an average age of 22 (Thompson the oldest at 26). We are 3-4 seasons away from that core being in the collective prime of their careers. It is not shocking to me that we struggle to consistently play structurally sound defensive hockey.

Recognizing that line placement (3rd line? 4th line?) is a bit subjective, per CapFriendly’s depth charts, Okposo is the 10th most productive 4th line player in the NHL. I have no issue with those who think it is time to move on from Okposo, but the most misguided narrative of this season is that Okposo has been bad. Frankly, we would be better off with 2-3 more Okposos than we would be without him.

I agree with your first paragraphs and strongly disagree with the conclusion of firing Adams. Of the 3 GMs Pegula has hired, Adams has by far been the best at executing an actual plan. There is near universal belief that any success Pegula has had in hiring quality people for the Bills or Sabres has been a happy accident. Pegula firing Adams would just result in him then taking another low % shot at hiring a new GM. I’ll pass on that for now. Adams was clearly reluctant to declare that this was a year with expectations. What I am somewhat shocked by is that he seems to have misunderstood that was not a narrative that he alone gets to set. The fans have no interest in another year of rebuilding. People would accept, begrudgingly, another year of growth where we take a run at the playoffs and fall short, but a year like this is only going to result in fans getting more brazen in voicing their displeasure. Good vibes have gone bad and may soon go toxic. The best we can hope for at this point is that Adams learns from his mistakes and course corrects. The challenging part for fans will be that if he indeed does this, it may take a little time and not be obvious at first. For example, while there are good coaches available now, it might be best to wait until the off-season when even better options are available. Regardless, at some point between now and the end of the next offseason, Adams needs to do something that makes clear that the organization now expects to win. He doesn’t have to say it, but he needs to do something that clearly positions the organization as one that expects to be a playoff team. If he doesn’t, and the plan is to do what they did this year and just make the team younger, then we are on the path to seeing the next group of star players ask for mercy and a move to another team.

22+ minutes a game playing every important situation. Wearing an A. Being the top-guy. World Juniors. Another deep playoff run with a contending team. Things that most elite 18 year olds get an opportunity to do. The sort of things, if not directly the same, for which Power and Levi were praised for choosing to do over turning pro.

For the record, I’m not giving up on this year and I am certainly not stuck on the development hamster wheel. I’m a bit frustrated that the organization has created an environment where an 18 year old can assume the role of the team’s balls. I’ve said all along that if we can be real .500 by as late as game 70 (76-78 points) we will be positioned for a possible strong finish and a run at the playoffs again. That should be the goal. Even better if we can get to real .500 by game 50 or 60. It’s only happening though if we get healthy upfront and multiple players returns to last year’s form. I reject the conclusion that Benson has been so good that we needed to keep him in order to have a chance at a playoff run. I think we have kept him at the expense of what would have been better development opportunities. I simply think that his future, and by extension the team’s, would have been better served by him being in junior. It’s cool that people disagree.

I get it. Benson has been “fine at the NHL level” or he’s “holding his own”, as you and others have said. I actually think he has been quite good and looks very much like an NHL player. He has been one of maybe 4-5 bright spots this year. He has been a reason to watch games. But the “we need him to win” argument kinda falls apart when we aren’t winning. I’m not predicting that Benson’s career will suffer from staying in the NHL. I don’t know the future. But there is a long list of players who made the NHL early and who failed to reach expectations. Generally it is concluded that such players were unnecessarily rushed. There is no player whose development was wrecked by playing junior as an 18 year old.

Benson could be playing 20-25 minutes a night, getting power play, penalty kill and last minute work in critical games while being a leader on a contending junior team and a world junior favorite. Instead he is getting 15 minutes a night with limited special team time on what to this point in the season has been a bad NHL team. We 100% disagree on how this should have been handled. Fair enough. It's all good. Cheers.

I'm not insisting on anything. Just expressing my view that the threshold for a non-playoff team to keep an 18 year old in the NHL who was not a top 5 pick should be higher than "he's holding his own". Precisely. Why the rush?

What message was sent to the roster in the off-season when Quinn was injured and everyone knew that the organization had lost faith in Olofsson and with rumblings that Tuch's health was precarious and with the league's deepest prospect pool and with 7-8 million in cap space, they opted for a competition in camp between rookies to fill a vacant top 6 position on the team? In this, seemingly, most critical of seasons, the message I think was clear: management did not consider this a critical season. No help is coming. Benson the player and person is not the issue: he is a breath of fresh air. That he was even an option for this team, in this season, is the issue. Now they are doubling down on their mistake.