Archie Lee

This is an anecdotal observation from a random Oiler game from last season that I happened to catch a portion of. The Oilers were playing in Columbus in late February. With 6-7 minutes left they were trailing 6-4. McDavid and Draisaitl were taking extended double-shifts. They eventually made the score 6-5. The Oilers called a time-out with a minute or so left. When they showed the Oiler bench during the time out, with the exception of the guys who were on the ice trying to get the tying goal, it was a collection of the most disinterested looking players I have seen. Nobody was into it. Nobody was standing up encouraging the guys on the ice. Guys looked entirely uninvested in the proceedings. I recall seeing one of them yawn. They looked like a group of guys who knew they had no role. The team would win or lose with how well McDavid and Draisaitl played and the rest of them were there to fill out the bottom half of the roster. Speculation is that McDavid is battling an injury. If he is not rolling at near 100%, I don't think there is a culture there that will see the team rally.

I recognize it was Savoie's 1st game, still it seemed odd to only play him 3:55. Krebs played just over 6 minutes. Last night was maybe the best indicator that Granato doesn't trust Krebs at this point as the underlying numbers matched the eye-test: when Krebs was on the ice the puck was in the Wild's end. It seemed weird to me that Granato put a lot of trust in him last season and now, even in a game where all indicators were that he was playing well, and where there were clearly guys getting more ice-time than their legs could manage, Krebs was stapled to the bench in the 3rd period. There is no fairness in pro-sports. A player gets the opportunity he gets and he either makes the most of it or he doesn't. Still, a little strange to me that we invested in Krebs as we have and do not give him extended time with any of our higher-end offensive players. I'm not down on Okposo and Girgensons. Last night was rough. I don't think Okposo should be on PK much if at all. But, if we are going to dress one or two players a game that Granato doesn't trust, then it is only going to further expose the weaknesses in Okposo's game. I don't think it is a sustainable model. We can look to the Tuch and Quinn injuries and say we will be fine when they are healthy, but the reality of an 82 game NHL season is that there will likely be others injured by then.

Maybe I’m misunderstanding, but are you comparing Gretzky being dealt at age 35 to McDavid at age 27-28?

If I could add a former high first round pick who is currently rehabbing from hip surgery, it would be Jesse Puljujarvi. Big, the right age, I think has always had good underlying #'s, but has just never produced the offence expected when he was drafted.

The Sabres did get the equivalent of 3 first rd picks for Eichel, at a point where Eichel needed neck surgery. I think the Oilers would do significantly better than that. The Gretzky trade was 35 years ago and involved the owner of the Oilers getting what would be the equivalent of $40 million today. I don't see a modern day McDavid trade as comparable. I do think that trade talk around McDavid and Draisaitl will definitely heat up if the Oiler season does not progress towards playoff contention. If things don't turn around significantly, extending either player (Draistaitl this off-season, McDavid next) seems unlikely. The Oilers will need to decide which is worse: being pilloried for winning nothing with McDavid and Draisaitl and having to trade them, or being pilloried for being the team that won nothing with them only to then see them walk as UFAs. It isn't something I would be interested in, but a Sabres trade for McDavid would likely start with Power and one of Thompson/Cozens and then add a combination of 3-4 top prospects and 1st rd picks.

I do think that spatial awareness plays a role in injuries. Some athletes have a natural ability to recognize when to bail-out of a situation that is potentially injurious. Others don't, at least not at the same level.

I’m not certain the statistics tell an accurate story (though, I’m also not certain they don’t). Do elite face off men put 100% effort into every neutral zone draw or into o-zone draws when they are up 3 in the 3rd? Do they ever set-up a future face-off win by intentionally losing a less critical face-off? How do elite face-off men fare in critical draws against non-elite face-off men? I’m certainly not trading valuable assets to get a guy who isn’t good enough to play PK/PP/OT, just because he wins face-offs 53% of the time. But no question we will be a better team if 1 or 2 of our centres become really good on the dot.

Who said it was ok? He was trying to avoid a d-zone face-off when he should have prioritized fresh legs. Declaring that no goalie in the league makes that mistake is kinda ridiculous, even taking post-game frustration into account.

UPL is the only goalie in the NHL who has ever had a brain cramp?

I agree. Some will interpret this as being ok with losing the extra point. That’s not it at all. We’ve lost 4 or 5 games in regulation this year where the score was tied in the 3rd. If we get 2 of those to OT we likely have 3 more points. We will win more of these than we will lose. It’s possible to be unhappy with the loss and happy we got the point at the same time. If the Islander score holds, we are tied for wild card 2. I realize we have played a game or two more than other teams, but we are 3-1-1 in our last 5. The trend is in the right direction.

Agreed with everything here. Olofsson is prone to being streaky. Even last year there were stretches where he was the only guy, or one of the only guys, who was cooking offensively for a stretch or two.

The %’s you have noted actually prove that there is movement after Thanksgiving among bubble teams. The Sabres went into this year as a bubble team. I doubt that will change between now and Thanksgiving and we are likely going to be in the wildcard race for most of the season.

Tough crowd when it comes to Okposo. He played 17 minutes last night. He plays an important role on what is at the moment one of the league's top PK units. Is our captain and, by all accounts, is one of the most respected leaders in the league. I haven't seen a noticeable drop off from last season. Okposo, Krebs, Girgs (and Cozens) are tops among Sabres forwards in D-zone starts. How many goals do people think 4th lines score? Boston? Dallas? NYR? Colorado? The answer so far this season is fewer than ours.

I agree with this. I applaud his willingness, but if he plays another 10 years in the league I hope that he has no more than 2-3 strategically placed fights with carefully chosen opponents.

What fascination are you referring to? He’s played 3 NHL games. The Sabres are giving him and Rousek looks to see if their games translate to a higher level. I think this is important. You might have a Derek Ryan in your midst. Also, you give such players, who are most likely career minor leaguers, some hope and something to keep aiming for. If they don’t rise to the occasion they will be back in Rochester.

Sometimes it is hard to learn a lesson when you win. The Sabres could/should have learned a lesson on Wednesday about intensity, defence, structure, etc., but scoring on 33% of their shots and UPL saving 38/40, instead taught them that they can evidently win without being committed to those things. The lesson will be more obvious after last night’s game. I understand that we are well past the point for some where any excuse is acceptable. I still think though that these tend to be lessons that young teams learn the hard way. I stand by my view that if we can hover right around true .500 (NOT NHL .500) until game 60-65, we will be in it. We are a 5-6 game winning streak away from most people wondering what we were worried about. Along the way there are going to be some distressing nights.

Thanks. I didn’t know the 25% max on 2nd retention.

Someone who knows more about NHL contracts can advise if this is allowed: how about the Sabres trade Olofsson to SJ for Kevin Labanc while both retaining 50%. They are the same age, play the same position and make the same money. Both are on the outs and are UFA next year. If either gets going with a change of scenery, that’s good. Also, with their cap hits cut in half, they could be moved with further 50% retention getting their cap hits down around $1.2 million. Would this be allowed? Not ideal, but both teams would be giving a vet player a shot at a change of scenery. Labanc comes from the USNDP. As is, I think we would need to add a pick to move Olofsson, even with retention.

Also meaning nothing: the team’s winning % after 8-10 games. This time last year ours was .700.

To provide some context: - Prior to be becoming an NHL goalie last season, UPL had consistently been a ranked top-10-goalie prospect or an honourable mention top-goalie prospect for several years on many prospect lists - In UPL's first 13 NHL games split over the 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons, he had a .913 save %. - Last year, through January he played 20 games and had a .901 save %. He was the NHL rookie of the month for January 2023 - It's worth noting that UPL's save % through his first 33 NHL games is objectively better than Levi's to this point in Levi's career (not in any way a shot against Levi, who I am excited about) - UPL's Feb and March last year were very bad (though he did end the season with 2 wins and a .911 save % over his last 3 appearances) What team waives a young goalie who has been considered a top prospect for years, because they had two bad months in their rookie NHL season? Thankfully, not the Sabres.

I enjoy advanced stats. Using them for single game evaluations can be misleading though. Goals saved above expected really does not work as a single game stat. To begin with, you can’t give up 1.26 goals in a game. If you face a Jack Hughes breakaway the first shot of a game and are scored on you will be negative on goals saves above expected. Doesn’t really tell you much other than you got scored on by Jack Hughes. Also, UPL faced 22 shots against NJ in only 28 minutes. Vanicek saw 27 shots over 60. Workload matters. What was the team corsi over the 28 minutes UPL played against NJ? I was listening to the new Expected Buffalo podcast last night. They are not UPL fans. They glossed over Levi’s poor start, largely blaming it on how the Sabres managed his workload (I agree that they overused Levi to start the year, but can also acknowledge he has been below average in performance through his four games). Then they proceeded to pick apart individual goals that UPL gave up while labeling people who defend him as “UPL-lovers”. I don’t see a lot of people blindly loving or defending UPL. I mostly see that some of us want to put in context that he is a young goalie who for most of his NHL career has not enjoyed the luxury of a stable defensive environment in front of him. At the start of the season the Sabres were the league’s youngest team by average age at 25.5 (per capfriendly). UPL is a year younger than our average age, playing a position where it is universally understood that development takes longer. Some of us just think there is a good goalie in there and want to give the kid a break.

Worst case scenario with Krebs is he is a versatile bottom six forward who can kill a penalty, win a draw, get under the other teams skin. If those are the things he can do in the NHL, then he will probably be better at them when he is 25-26 than he is at 22. No need to lose patience or be disappointed yet. No reason he can’t be our Casey Cizikas.

Thanks for this. I agree. I should add though, that I think Adams did himself no favor when he failed to get Ullmark signed. My position going back to Ullmark's final year with the Sabres is that the Thatcher Demko 5 x $5 million deal was the benchmark for getting a goalie like pre-Bruins Ullmark signed long-term. It is, basically, the deal Tristan Jarry got this off-season as well. All three were basically .911 - .915 goalies (not stars, but upper-mid-level starters) at the time they signed their current deals. Ullmark, to his full-credit, is benefiting from the team-impact on his #'s. Had Adams offered Ullmark 5x5 before the end of the 2021-2022 season, I can't imagine that he would have declined. Adams's reluctance to go past 4 years, I think, helped Ullmark decide to test the market and when the Bruins matched our offer he took the opportunity to go to a winning team rather than stay with the Sabres through a rebuild. Make no mistake though, Ullmark at .911 - .915 here, would be plenty good enough. Vanicek, in my opinion, is at least a grade-level below Ullmark, Demko, and Jarry and I'm not convinced he would be better here than the goalies we have on our roster have been.

NJ were 3rd best in xga last year. We were 27th. I’m not convinced that Vanicek would have thrived here or that UPL/Comrie would have floundered there. For clarity, I’m not of the view that this is undoable. We are 8 games in and I think there is a clear effort to get the team to play better defence. I don’t think Eric Johnson makes the comment he made if coaches were not emphasizing D. He was, in my view, imploring his teammates to take serious what is being preached. The lack of great results thus far does not mean it is not being stressed or that it won’t be successful as we get deeper into the season.

If the point is that Adams should have got a better goalie then my answer is, fair enough. I think you judge results and thus far the goaltending results have not been good. But not every team in the league is 25th in expected goals against. 24 teams do better (so far this season). UPL won’t magically turn into Connor Hellebuyck. It doesn’t take magic to play better defensive hockey than we are playing. We can wish and hope for better goaltending or we can reduce the number of opportunities we give to other teams.