Broken Ankles
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Posts posted by Broken Ankles
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4 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:
I would get our third back and use an offer sheet, if anything just to make them squirm for always getting ludicrous sweetheart deals.
They are a great team in a great location, and I think everyone but Kuch and Point have no trade clauses on their contracts. Make an offer sheet high enough and they'll sweat, deservedly so.
worst case scenario, life gets harder for a division rival. Best case, you get a player.
In concept, great idea. But the player still has to sign. Worst case is we make a ridiculous offer and he chooses to forgo and accept a bridge to stay. Then it’s leaked only exacerbating the perception of anti-hockey heaven.
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Hearing Bogo will not be going to Roch and announcing a retirement.
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3 hours ago, PASabreFan said:
Will they warm up in the slug?
That’s what she said.
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9 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:
More specifically, our top line only broke even for the first 18 games,, before Jack's hot streak started. 11 goals for at even strength, 11 against. For a team that is built to lean on a line, this isn't acceptable production. Like I was keeping track at the time, we'd have needed all of our other lines to fairly significantly (compared to what is typically expected of depth lines) outscore their opponents to have a shot at contention like that. 11 goals for in 220 minutes gave them a goal every 20 minutes of ES time. ie, on average, they were scoring less than a goal per game. Then Jack got hot, but he must have gotten power play hot too, as until Olofsson got hurt, they played 311 minutes of ES ice time together and scored 17 goals in that time (a goal every 18 minutes of ES time, a bit better) and were now a +4. so for 41 games, the line was +4 and scored 28 goals at ES. In the 15 games since the injury (and including any time Jack didn't play with Olofsson between 11/15 and his injury, which I don't think is much) the top line has 23 goals in 330 minutes, or one goal every 14 minutes, and is +13.
28 goals, +4 in 41 games AFTER a hot streak, Jack & Victor
vs
23 goals, +13 in 15 games without an Eichel 132 point pace streak, Jack without Victor (also with 5% more defensive zone draws)
That's the surface level production, I'll also post some other stats for the fancy stats guys
Eichel with Olofsson: 49.49 CF%, 47.35 xGF%, 49.1 scoring chance %
Eichel without Olofsson: 53.52 CF%, 52.82 xGF%, 52.02 scoring chance %
This is mostly just because, while Victor has shown tremendous even strength improvement over the years, he's still not quite ready to truly excel in all facets of the game in the role that comes with playing with Jack. Now that this year is kinda over, I wouldn't mind seeing them continue with Olofsson there because it's worked for his growth so far. But if we were absolutely desperate for maximizing every little thing we possibly can to win games, I'd probably not want Victor on the top line this season.But yet VO is such a better defensive option rather than Skinner. In Ralph’s world.
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On 2/8/2020 at 9:05 PM, Doohickie said:
We just saw it tonight. Pretty awesome flick.
As far as small screen goes, now that Bojack Horseman is complete I've been kind of looking at other shows... Usually it takes two or three shows to pull me in, but after one episode I think The Kominsky Method is going to be a winner.
Binge watched season 2 when it released. Great series.
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It makes no sense whatsoever. Tim Murray reported in to PLT and it was assumed that PLT would be involved in all aspects of what a GM does (UFA signings, trades, etc). PLT was not close to what was happening in the amateur leagues and TM was seen as a scouting guru. PLT hired TM because he was lacking and felt TM could improve this shortcoming in the scouting department. I can see where you hope your supervisor fails at something, so you can move up one rung, but not the other way around. Patty was a defacto GM at the time he left. Whatever disagreements he had were at a level higher than him, not lower.
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37 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
What do you mean O'Reilly factor?
Meaning if Sam was not playing with Jack, but was playing with O'Reilly (2015-2018), the results would have been similar to those with Jack. Taro was concerned about the results if Sam was playing alongside ROR. By using 2018/2019 data that removes ROR from the equation, I'm suggesting that using his replacements were less than replacement level 2C, so that should be considered in the result/numbers you provided of Sam without Jack.
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2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
Since I looked at the numbers, Reinhart is slightly worse away from Eichel. Eichel is just as good if not better without Reinhart. My Conclusion is that Skinner should play with Eichel and Olofsson and Reinhart should be on your 2nd line with a decent center. I think Cozens would actually fit well in here but that is another debate for another day. So Sam is not better away from Eichel, nor is he much worse.
Nice effort on pulling this, especially considering the O'Reilly factor. I think the assumptions are fair that if you included a top rated center with his numbers in 2016/17 they might be show better. But this also mean the inverse is true. You take into account that the 2018-19 lines where Jack has a slightly better Goals for, High danger, etc and assume that when not paired with Sam, Jack was playing with Jeff most of this time. (I believe 20% of his TOI was with Jeff, and not Sam). While Sam was playing with Casey, Evan, Conor, Vlad and Tage when not with Jack. (Shown below as a % of total on ice for 2018/19). The results displayed for a positive Corsi and only a slightly worse than scoring for are not bad considering the caliber of center and wingers he played with. I would love to try to see how this manifested in this years numbers, but unfortunately a stubborn RK refuses to pair Jack with Jeff, and split Sam from Jack so who knows. Either way, the numbers to me show that if paired with a competent center (2C) and a better than average LW (Johansson) Sam has a positive upside to the analysis provided.
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1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:
I think part of what makes our defense look bad is that our offense is bottom of the barrel in terms of what they're capable of doing in the offensive zone. So in a game, we see our defense give up chances, looks, passing plays that we haven't seen ourselves in years, and think it's a function of our awful defense. In reality, we may even do better about limiting these chances than the average NHL team, we just never see our offense capable of doing this to other teams.
The issue really is our offense (and backup goaltending). The talent of Jack and Olofsson and Sam and Skinner (until the last few months) has kept the raw goals scored out of the basement but we are the worst chance creation team since Botterill got here, measured by either of expected goals for or scoring chances for.Agree with all this, plus add in an extremely poor PK unit. Dovetailing on your point about Scoring chances (raw), the SCA the Sabres rank #11 in the league. Now these chances are not qualified as A/B/C but comparatively they are in the company of the Caps, Panthers and Avs, and better than the Preds and Columbus. They are #18 in total shots against. And lastly they are #12 in High Danger Chances against. Not bad. These positions do not reflect them being a bottom seven points team. Being third worst in PK% (and really close to the absolute worse), coupled with a below average save percentage (#21) point to goaltending in general.
Consider this: Winnipeg is in the bottom 5 in all these categories (Shots against, High danger against, Corsi 5v5 against, Scoring chances against) yet somehow in a playoff position. Losing your top four defense-man will do that to a team. But their offensive prowess keeps them in games. And having Helleybuyck doesn't suck.
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40 minutes ago, #freejame said:
Eichel isn’t in his prime, I’ve already argued that in another thread.
I know. Agitation. Kinda like Marchand.
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6 hours ago, #freejame said:
Someone said they wished we could sign him to a contract like Marchand’s. This shows Sam has provided more value than Marchand did at the time of his third contract and will likely be paid at a higher percentage of cap. You’re comparing one player who is currently in his prime to one player who is not. Of course Marchand is better now, he’s directly in his prime. Reinhart is not in his prime yet.
If Eichel is in his prime now, and Sams one year older than Jack, how is Sam not in his prime yet? ????
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2 hours ago, Pimlach said:
Hockey is a funny game. I don’t know why the Sabres that beat Vegas, Dallas, and the Rangers did not show up against Ottawa, Montreal, Colorado or Detroit.
After yesterday’s game I started thinking that just a few more really good forwards and maybe we can take a real step forward as a team. Then add in a stud goalie and look out. Which means blowing up the FO might be the wrong move. I am more inclined to put in someone over Boterill that will help him with trades, player evaluations, and strategy.
All I want now is to finish this season with the same level of compete like the Ranger game had, and do it every game, especially at home. Finish strong like a team, do not spiral down.
As for these fans protesting, its their right and it can’t hurt for Pegula to see it. Hopefully Pegula interprets correctly - the low attendance speaks volumes - many people in WNY do not care about this team anymore.
Could not agree more. I am extremely concerned about the current managements bond or ties to draft picks or players brought in via trade. Specifically Carter Hutton. A new GM would look at this situation, the flexibility of a buyout and this guy would be gone in the off-season. Especially with talent like Holtby or other UFA goalies this summer. I would doubt the current regime makes any changes at the position and stays with the status quo until his contract expires next year. The experiment has failed. Same to a lesser degree with Montour and Casey. A new GM with no ties to these players can be much more objective in evaluating these assets as collateral in a trade.
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3 hours ago, Doohickie said:
Bold prediction: Sabres score the first goal, then go on to lose 11-1. Terry finally shows up for a game and fires JBot and RFK before they leave MSG. Chris Taylor promoted to interim coach for the rest of the season. Ray Shero hired as GM.
Shero? Do Better (or so I have heard)....
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1 hour ago, Pimlach said:
Ok. But we don’t have that kind of coach or GM.
We are waiting for all JBots stars to align. After X years all the prospects will be stars and Rochester will be a great pipeline. Just like Pittsburgh right?
Meanwhile, other teams make moves to improve rapidly. Colorado’s entire 2nd line is made up of free agents signed last summer. We could not find even one top 6 forward last summer. Johansson is not it. Who knows what Olofsson is without Eichel. Look at the fall of Skinner, a proven scorer and competitor.
Burokovsky and Kadri were trades. Nichushkin was a UFA and a nice reclamation project. He’s a good example of a player surrounded with great talent and asked to play a 4th or 3rd line role can play without pressure and get elevated to the second. Whether it’s a trade or UFA the point remains that they made moves and have improved their standing.
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4 hours ago, Ruff Around The Edges said:
I envision a 4-3 Wings victory
If you feel strong about this you need to bet it pronto. The Sabres are -240 on the money line. DET is +205. Vegas sees this as an easy win tonight. The Isles for example are only -210 against the Kings, and they are HOME.
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7 minutes ago, Kruppstahl said:
Of note:
"The toxicity of the Sabres' lack of success is beginning to seep into the marketplace. Buffalo's average tickets distributed per game is 17,146 (90.8% capacity), down from 17,908 (93.9%) last season. In the Pegulas' first full season as owner, it was 18,550 (99.9%)."
"Here's what I know, according to sources: The Sabres were looking for a president of hockey operations-type last season. They never hired one, and seemingly cooled to the idea. If Botterill comes back, I can't see a scenario in which he doesn't have someone above him to help facilitate this turnaround, or at least sign off on his plans."
"If they don't retain Botterill, there are two other directions in which I'd support the Sabres going.
Scenario No. 1: If the New York Rangers ever allowed Chris Drury to take another job, I think Buffalo hires him in a millisecond as its Joe Sakic/Steve Yzerman conquering hero.
Scenario No. 2: Krueger becomes coach/general manager, which we haven't had since Darryl Sutter in Calgary. Look, if anyone could do it, it's that guy."
#1 please.
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28 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:
we can go around and blame whomever we want but I think the blame lays squarely on one players shoulders.
Carter Hutton - Since Oct 24th
He ranks last in NHL goalies (min 6 appearances) with a SV% of .869, 2nd last with a GAA of 4.03 and has a record of 1-4-9
Even if he is avg over that time frame and has a record of 5-4-5, you are 2 points behind the leafs with a game in hand. Maybe you can blame JB for not finding a decent back-up but at some point in time the player has to face criticism.
Fix your goaltending and a lot of all the other issues go away.
I know its tough to preach patience in this current environment but I honestly believe the plan was to just get through this season and take advantage of this summers cap space and start again in 2020/21. hopefully getting contributions from players like Mitts, Cozens, Asplund and maybe even UPL. Plus. further growth in Dahlin as he will no longer be a teenager.
so 29 more games to go. close your eyes if you have to. on to the lottery!
Good call out. Should the Sabres be in on B. Holtby this summer? As a bridge to UPL? If another team is offering term, I would think we are out. The Sabres can save $1.8M with a buyout this summer, and they already have a fair amount of cap space.
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4 hours ago, dudacek said:
Krueger's reasoning for keep Jeff away from Jack is simpler than that, I think.
His strategy is to use Jack's line against the other team's top players (they actually did OK against the best line in the league last night despite the score).
He doesn't trust Jeff defensively in that role.
While I can say Olafssons defense before injury was improved from October, I cannot see that much of a difference between the two. And what is RK’s rationale coming out of the break? When it’s not an either or situation.
To Ligrs point about stats with/without Jack, it was imperative that he get jump started out of the gate against OTT. And it just didn’t happen. It’s like RK being stubborn to his detriment. I think I saw a partial shift where he was on with Sam and Jack and within seconds a scoring chance. -
44 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
So you are trading a roster player for a player 3-5 years away from NHL significance? We can't keep doing that. Keep Larsson but the rest of the UFA's I don't honestly care if this is what happens.
A good GM that can evaluate forwards (Sakic) could manifest this collateral into something much faster.
also - read this on why it’s easy to move on from Girgs and Johan.
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4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
Larsson is 1 of only 2 centers this team has. That's why.
You mean on this team that has not sniffed the playoffs in 8 years. I like Son of Lars, but he may be the only UFA that has any return value. We need to move on from the past, so take what you can get. Maybe Larsson plus another part can get you into the second /third round.
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1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:
Legitimately no reason this franchise shouldn't be near or at Colorado's level of skill and success. Colorado bottomed out in 2016-2017 with something like 48 points, playing hockey on par with the tank Sabres. They made the playoffs the year after with a very flawed but exciting team, continued to address needs and get stronger so that they won a round last year, and then added Donskoi, Kadri, and Burakovsky to get ready to send their young core deep into the playoffs.
Its very easy to construct a ladder for the Sabres that lines up with Colorado, or is just one year behind, and yet these two teams didn't appear to be playing the same sport.
it literally didn't even have to come close to being as miserable of a path as it has been. We have a bag full of meek and reactive hockey players
Sakic wins trades, we dont
Turris for Girard
Burakovsky for 2nd and 3rd
Grubaur for a 2nd
Graves for peanuts
top 4 for Duchene
Zadorov and Compher for O’Reilly
plus drafting four spots ahead of Buffalo in 2017 gave them Makar and us Casey.
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9 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:
Even if it is for 5th round picks(or later), or even some Amerks reinforcements, I'm attempting to trade every pending UFA(except maybe Girgensons and Larssons) on the team by the deadline...
Frolik
Sheary
Vesey
BogosianLarsson and/or Girgensons would garner morethan the others (if anything at all). They are UFA's. They have been associated with more losing than others on the team. Why wouldn't you attempt to trade them?
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4 minutes ago, Rico7 said:
Yes to Dudley all day. No to old man Babcock
Pretty sure Dudley is a $hite-Ton older than Babcock. By like 15 years.
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40 minutes ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:
So you're suggesting that there was absolutely no way for an NHL franchise to get some custom made sweaters? None. Not possible.
There are other ways of getting things done other than ordering them off the internet but they take time and planning. FWIW, the lack of goatheads didn't bother me that much. The misspellings on the other hand are inexcusable.
This is the correct answer. Had proper planning and logistics been done, they could easily have had a licensed supplier make a run of officially branded goathead Jerseys. Some for the players themselves, and others for the fans coming to pay homage to their 90's team. You think those fans coming (that night or later) might have purchased a few of these sweaters?
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Bogosian Signs a 1.3 Million Dollar Deal with Tampa
in The Aud Club
Posted
If we were playing Card Sharks I’d say this a high number. My guess is this not like Moulson where there was over 1.5 years at $5m AAV and he needed to be a good little soldier. I’m sure he has to get with agent and look at all options but the situation is toxic. I heard second hand from someone with knowledge that it was a retirement. But if the agent gets no feelers, Bogo might not want to lose the 1/3 of this years salary and report.