triumph_communes

Laine and Hoffman are power play specialists who we don’t need. With all the new defenders we have, there’s a good chance we won’t even be able to keep whatever forward we acquire from a Risto trade in the expansion draft. Only getting a couple years out of the target is all you should expect.

Laine wants a short contract taking him right to UFA. This kills his value. You only add something desirable, but small like Rodrigues or picks going back. I think it’s be funny if it was Ristolainen+Thompson for Laine. Analytics people hate Laine more than they hate Thompson

Need to be clear: The correction factor ***attempts*** to account for teammate effects, but by no means can it completely do so. It also has no ability to distinguish chemistry with one player va no chemistry vs another. When players have very few linemates, the model will fail them to some degree.

I wouldn't call it a mess when there isn't a player who would have to pass through waivers that anyone would mind actually losing, or have value any higher than a 3rd rounder. That's just healthy competition, with no externalities forcing him to make a decision beyond what's shown on the ice.

Okposo+Thompson, similar drags The collinearity tries to correct for individual players, but it obviously can't without data outside of it. The lowest errors for all these models happens for players who played for multiple teams. When looking at a teenage prospect who has had limited opportunities, you have to take it with a huge grain of salt. When you have Mittelstadt with less than 200 minutes with a replacement level player, it doesn't matter if there's 900+ minutes of data on it, he's never had a chance to do anything but be dragged.

The highest errors in the model come when percentages are above 60% for players with >700 minutes. And yes, quite literally, the author of these fancy stats states:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1006.4310.pdf Pages 34-37 A snippet: i.e., when a player spends the majority of his time with another skater, the player's stats become indistinguishable from each other. Casey spent all year with Okposo and in limited time with Thompson, and Thompson otherwise spent his year with Sobotka outside a few games. As a result, their charts are going to mimic those players to a large degree, a digression explicity noted by the creator of the statistics. The terms in the regression are built off of a massive dataset, so the error by smaller minutes played put into the model is relatively low. If this is what you think, then you really have no clue how this model was created. Read the links above.

Casey stuck with Okposo all year sucked, surprise! Casey in his 6 game stint the year prior, not saddled with idiots: People like you really undermine the usefulness of these charts when you take everything in poor context and post stats just to prove a narrative.

You mean, where he also played with Sobotka and Berglund, lol?

Girgensons never played with Sobotka. You aren't factoring in the Off_GF Off_xG Off_CF black hole that Sobotka had on everyone he blessed his minutes with. The guy refused to sustain a forecheck and gave up the offensive zone before his teammates would even lose possession. I get that stats can help tell a story, but they aren't some slam poetry with great applause. Thompson was put in bad situation after bad situation and I think some people should calm down on him. He tore up the AHL after being sent down the second time in Stl, and in Buffalo. Yes, he had his brain farts, but they don't completely describe him. He has a very active pokecheck and an elite shot, and deployed properly can be a serviceable player. Paired with Sobotka, he had none of that.

Risto+McCabe+Smith or Rodrigues+pick (~7.5AAV) for Ehlers+Lowry (8.9AAV) Jets need to shed some cap, especially long-term, which is why Ehlers goes cheap. I believe the Jets want to dump Kulikov, but I bet we are on his 6-team no trade list after the whole door incident. They would prefer to keep their youth over their guys under contract (Ehlers & Lowry). They also value McCabe highly because he is still RFA, and they have very few defenders currently under long-term control. I think they'd demand a cheap forward back if trading two forwards out.

Tage has also always played with anchor teammates. He only had a couple shifts on a line without a Sobotka, 4th line, etc, scenario.

Nylander will probably do better than he would have in Buffalo getting to play with Kane and Toews. Buffalo doesn’t have those kinds of players for him to play with though. Buffalo has a fragile locker room and doesn’t need yet another kid who struggles with motivation. Botterill obviously is obsessed with character and wants none of that.

So what was that Risto to Florida rumor again? Risto+McCabe+Erod for Huberdeau+Hoffman? I didn’t want to give up on Erod, but with the new depth I could make do if that’s what it took to land Huberdeau.

Dahlin-Risto Pilut-Montour McCabe-Miller Scandella-Bogosian Hunwick-Nelson Hickey-Jokiharju Bryson-Borgen x-Johnson x-Samuelsson x-Laaksonen x-Fitzgerald ok.... what's going to give? We're overcompensating on defensive depth here a wee bit..

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/will-jokiharju-start-the-year-in-rockford.2662329/

All the Chicago fans wanted to trade him for William... they're going to be so disappointed when he brings back only Alex..

Krueger is known for his unorthodox, yet top performing PP.

no, they don't

Thanks, I indeed was reading it backwards.

Given the interview responses, I feel like it's more likely that Johansson ends up playing center. Whether Mittelstadt or Johansson get more minutes (being the true 2nd or 3rd line) will just depend on how they play, but I expect a much improved Mittelstadt and for that line to get sheltered the most anyway: Skinner-Eichel-Rodrigues/Thompson/Nylander Sheary-Mittelstadt-Reinhart Smith/Oloffson/Rodrigues/Nylander-Johansson-Vesey Girgensons-Larsson-Okposo I think any combination of LW/RW really works in this Top-9, except that Reinhart needs to be kept away from Eichel. One thing to keep in mind about Krueger: He will keep lines together to a fault, as he believes as certain pairings face adversity they learn together. Different philosophy as our last few coach's. I'm not sure how far into the season it will be until he settles on his lines though.

Interesting graphs. I agree with your logic and assessment, but I just struggle with them as they really conflict with the eye test for me. There’s too many minutes of Girgensons/Larsson cycling in the o zone against Bergeron and Marchand last year for me to see such a small sliver in the 1-3.

6.65 for McCabe, Ullmark, Rodrigues, and Larsson 2 1.5 1 2 =6.5 Roster size of 24, minus 1 million for whoever is demoted and there’s the wiggle room. Dahlin’s bonuses can be carried over into next year worst case, when a lot of cap will open up, but I wouldn’t worry much with all the LTIR going on. What I was hoping for was a trade involving Risto to either Winnepeg or Tampa, depending on who Montreal offer sheets, to help them fill in their gap at defense while taking back some salary on a forward like Ehlers or Gourde in return. I don’t see how we have the room to do anything like that now with Johansson, but there’s still some cap magic possible (Bogo straight to IR, buyouts, etc)

Skinner-Eichel-Thompson/Oloffson Johansson-Mittelstadt-Reinhart Smith/Sheary-Ruostalainen-Vesey Girgensons-Larsson-Rodrigues Okposo

Most of the guys edging out are waiver trash. He doesn’t need to get anything for them really, just bury them and be done.