GASabresIUFAN

KA's modus operandi has been to sign his core players to long-term deals So far he has dished out big contracts to Samuelsson after 1 good year, Cozens after 1 good year, TNT after 1 good year, Power after 1 decent year, and now UPL after 1 good season. Have we received decent value on any of these contracts? Samuelsson has been hurt since he signed his deal as often as he's played. Cozens regressed in the 1st year of the new deal. TNT also regressed in year 1 of his new deal. Power basically repeated his prior season and now enters the 1st year of the new deal. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5014522/2024/04/19/nhl-player-cards-atlantic-division/ According to the Athletic our core players that KA extended had negative contract values. TNT's was -500K, Cozens -3.3 million, and Samuelsson -1.1 million. Power's and Dahlin's new deals kick in this year. Last season Power gave us 4.4 million in value. His new deal is for 8.35. Dahlin's value was 9.5 million and his new deal is for 11 million. Honestly, I have no idea how Power will every play up to the new contract. The Sabres just aren't getting their money's worth on these big extension, and UPL's deal will probably follow suit. The truth is KA should have bridged Power, Cozens and Samuelsson and he should have bridged UPL for 2-3 years and then handed the reigns to Levi.

I like Quinn, but he is not an elite playmaker. Maybe he can develop into one, but his stats don't justify that label, not his total assists or his primary assists. Yes, he Jr scouting reports say he has good passing skills, but the stats say his primary usage in the pros is that of a goal scorer. What I will say is that his develop curve is looking more and more like Tuch. In LV, Tuch was primarily used as a depth goal scorer. However, once he joined the Sabres, Granato elevated his role and gave him more opportunity to be a playmaker. Over the last 2 years, Tuch's assists and primary assists are second on the Sabres behind Mitts. Quinn may also eventually be better than Zegras, but he isn't right now. Zegras is only 6 months older, but has played 211 games in the NHL (107 more than Quinn). He has 155 pts in those games (.735 pt/gp) vs Quinn's 58 in 104 games (.555 pt/gp).

No he hasn't and Levi is the NHL backup heading into training camp. Here are UPL's pro save% 19/20 AHL .874 (10 games), He spent most of the season in the ECHL .912 (23 games) 20/21 AHL .888 (14 games) 21/22 AHL .900 (35 games) 22/23 NHL .892 (33 games) 23/24 NHL .910 (54 games) Outside of last season, UPL's record of accomplishment in pro hockey is mediocre at best. These are not the stats of a "top prospect." The best thing someone can say is that UPL has steadily improved. Compare to Ullmark. Linus' in 3 AHL seasons had save % of .902, .909, and .923. His save % in Buffalo .912 over 117 games. Those are top prospect numbers. We have no idea if this guy is a long-term franchise goalie.

This is a stupid contract for a goalie with only 1 good pro season (AHL & NHL) to his credit. 5 years makes no sense, especially if Levi is your long-term franchise goalie. This contract will not be easy to trade if (when?) UPL regresses.

But how much better would Quinn be (& Cozens for that matter) if he had a gifted playmaker feeding him pucks for his very accurate shot?

Necas, 25, 362 gp - .268 g/gp, .671 p/gp Zegras, 23, 211 gp - .261 g/gp, .73 p/gp Zegras has 2 60 pt seasons, while Necas only has one. Zegras has 2 years left on his current deal at 5.75 while Necas is an RFA and looking for a long-term deal over $7 mill per season. How is Zegras a step back and Necas a step forward?

The Hischier, 25, of today is not the Hischier of age 21. Zegras had two 60+ seasons under his belt by 21. Hischier didn’t hit 60 pts until 22. Getting Zegras now, you may be getting a player about to make the next jump in level of production.

Agreed. As I pointed out in the OP, Ana needs ready young vets across their lineup, especially on defense. Their cornerstone young players are McTavish and Carlsson up front and Mintyukov on defense with F Gauthier coming soon and D Owen Zellweger securing a full time NHL gig this fall. Troy Terry is their good youngish vet F at 25. I think they need to fill in between the 9 30+ players and the young kids with more guys in the 23 to 27 range.

Looks to me that his "speed" dip is a reflection of his broken ankle from last year. Those numbers look very similar to one Zack Benson. Who according to the chart posted in the speed thread had a max speed of 21.47 and only 22 bursts of 20+. Is Lindy going to toss him to the curb? Quinn is only 21.86 with 29 20+. Zegras is a high IQ player that feeds his linemates. Isn't that what we need? Lindy has had success with similar players. Hischier comes to mind.

The time for patience has passed. I do agree that odds are KA isn't trading Benson for any reason, especially not just 2 years of Zegras. I also don't think he'd move Byram, the asset he got for Mitts, plus other assets to acquire a Mitts replacement. To make the money work, I think the deal starts with Greenway (or Jokiharju), plus Rosen and a 1st (or Kulich and a 2nd). Would Krebs be another piece? Kulich or Rosen probably make the Ducks out of camp giving them two roster players from the deal.

I would never say something like that. 😉

Let’s say for arguments sake that Ana is actually interested in trading their top pick from a couple of years ago after a difficult injury affected season. Buffalo’s need for a player like Zegras is obvious. The Sabres need a top 6 forward and need a playmaker of his skill to replace the lost playmaking from trading Mitts. The biggest hurdle to a deal is Ana is only 1.28 million above the cap floor. Moving Zegras (and I assume his full salary of $5.75 million) without taking a contract or two back, would put Ana about $4.5 million under the cap. Ana is also a surprisingly old team. They have 5 forwards 30+, their top goalie is 31 and their top 3 D are also 32+. The Sabres also have 13 forwards under contract once Krebs is signed. If Ana trades Zegras, they are going to want at least one or two roster players, preferably someone who can become part of their core. My guess is Benson is at the top of their list. I also think they are going to want 4 pieces in total. If we use the Eichel deal as a reference, the Sabres gave up Eichel and a 2023 3rd for Tuch (a good, but injured vet with term), Krebs (a young highly touted near ready prospect), a 2022 1st and a 2023 2nd. Honestly, I’m having a problem making the pieces work. Greenway is likely to be one of pieces heading the other way. Krebs? Rosen? Kulich? Our first in 2025? Thoughts?

https://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/after-trade-to-move-up-sabres-possess-mature-prospect-in-brodie-ziemer/ Good read. This kid will be a Sabres someday and a good one.

They probably did, but it takes two to tango.

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/buffalo-sabres/latest-news/sabres-have-serious-interest-in-ducks-star This is the only "credible" place I've seen it, but there may be others. This is from late June.

A follow-up note on differential. Of the teams since 2005, 61% of the teams with a positive differential of +1 to +10 made the playoffs (30 of 49), and 83% of the teams with a positive differential of +11 to +20 made the playoffs (50/60). If the Sabres have at least +20 differential in 24/25 they will make the playoffs.

Actually he is the complete opposite of what they have in droves. He is a pass first playmaker. We have no one like him on the team. Tuch is the closest, but he is a more balanced mix of shooting and passing. JJP, TNT, Cozens, and Quinn are all shoot first players. Benson is an unknown, but seems to be more in the Tuch mold, just smaller and slower. As to Beck, it’s a fair deal given his one year in the NHL. If he can repeat with 20+ points, while hitting and playing PK, the deal will look good from a cap $ standpoint.

Here is a good stat Sabres fans. Only one team since the NHL returned from the lock-out in 2005 has missed the playoffs with a +20 differential (strike and Covid seasons exempted). That was the Avs in 06/07 with a +21 and they missed the playoffs by 1 pt (they still had 95 pts). Only 5 other teams missed the playoffs with a +15 or better differential. The Sabres of last season are tied with Minn of 05/06 with the lowest point total (84) for a team with a +differential. The Sabres also managed to miss the playoffs with a +13 in 07/08 and + 16 in 08/09.

Yes you are wrong. When the parties to a lawsuit or arbitration agree to a conclusion prior to a judge or arbiter reaching a decision it’s called a settlement.

This thread asks the fundamental question, what needs to happen for this team to make the playoffs. 1) There are internal questions Offense: A) EV offense. Two seasons ago our EV offense was the among the best in the NHL but it wasn’t enough to get the team into the playoffs. Last season, the EV offense fell off significantly and we fell further away from the playoffs. For this team to make the playoffs the EV offense must get better get back closer to the 22/23 offense. I’m relatively confident that the top 6 will show some rebound, but I’m not sure the bottom 6 will give us more. Still any rebound will get us closer to the playoffs. B) PP. In 22/23 the PP was extremely effective for half a season (23% for the season). After that and through 23/24, the PP was boring predictable and ineffective (16% in 23/24). Over the last 2 years, teams that execute at 22-23% or better nearly always make the playoffs. Buffalo in 22/23 is one the exceptions. Defense: A) EV Defense. In 22/23, despite one of the best offenses in the NHL, the team’s defense was horrendous. The teams’ defense was so bad, the team had a negative differential. HDCA was among the worst in the NHL. The 23/24 team was marginally better, but still one of the worst in NHL in HDCA. B) PK. Again it was terrible in 22/23. At 73% it was in the bottom 5 in the NHL. In 23/24 it was improved. It went from terrible to middle of the road at just under 80% dropping from 61 ga to 49 ga. Having at least a middle of the road PK would be nice. Goaltending: This is the real area of improvement for the Sabres last year which lead to the huge drop in GA both EV and PK. Sadly, it wasn’t great to start last season which dug a Sabres a hole they couldn’t get out of. However, UPL ending up having an excellent year and marginally kept the Sabres in playoff contention through February. However the entire goaltending still was just league average for the season. In 22/23 the Sabres save% was .890 (league ave .899). EV save% was .911 (league ave .920). In 23/24 the Sabres save% was .899 (league ave .898). EV save% was .920 (league ave .920). 2) External questions? Will any of last year’s playoff teams take a step back? Will any of last year’s bottom feeders, besides Buffalo, take a step forward? In the East over the last 2 seasons there hasn’t been much movement. In the East, 6 of 8 playoffs teams repeated from 21/22 to 22/23 and 7/8 repeated from 22/23 to 23/24. So what will it take for the Sabres to make the leap. The Offense, both at EV and PP, must get back to the above average performance. It doesn’t have to be top 5 in the NHL, but 265+ goals will go along way to securing a playoff spot, assuming everything else, such as the goaltending, EZ defense, and PK, remain league average or better. We are looking for a differential of at least 20+ to break the 13 year playoff drought. It would also be helpful if teams like the NYI, Car, TB and Wash take a step back.

So Benson is slow and small. Are those the reasons he slipped to 13th ? I noticed how little offense is generated by our new speedsters. Also surprised by how comparatively well Mule faired on these charts and how relatively poorly Joki faired.

Size matters. As much as we all like Benson, he does get knocked off the puck and that will continue. Also no one wants a team full of 5-9 to 5-11 guys. They wouldn’t fair very well. Still this is kind of an argument about interior vs perimeter play. So far, the Sabres have been a perimeter team with few guys, including big guys like TNT, willing to drove the net and even fewer forwards willing to embrace back checking. This is a question of heart. Benson has the heart to do what’s necessary. I question whether many of his teammates have the same commitment.

You could have said that about their best all-around forward. I’m not saying they shouldn’t re-sign UPL. All I’m saying is that they are in a much better position to weather the loss if UPL isn’t re-signed than they were when Ullmark walked. There are two other truths here as well. UPL isn’t going anywhere. He’ll either be re-signed through the arbitration process or an extension will be reached. Second, UPL has one good pro season to his name and even last season had extended periods of lousy play. He isn’t a proven NHL netminder. Let’s not act as if he is Ullmark 2.0. There is a very good chance that Levi outplays him next season.

At Ameris Bank Amphitheater seeing John Waite, Foreigner (or the cover band allowed to call themselves Foreigner) and Styx.

That's a better comparison.