GASabresIUFAN

I’m kind of with you right now. I think the offense will be ok. Assuming the kids continue to progress the center of Mitts, Cozens, R2 should make up 3 capable scoring lines. I’m more worried about our 3rd D pairing getting caved every night and our complete lack a goaltending. We could have a -100 differential with a Dell/Anderson combo

Any surprise in the roster cuts?

That's fair.

I haven't heard that term being floated. I’ve heard he might not be the same player after either surgery but not career ending. Since TM isn’t a GM anymore, hard for teams to trade damaged goods for big returns.

Sounds like the reason the agents got fired. Sabres decide the surgery, Sabres hold the contract and the Sabres have the injury insurance policy that probably gets voided if Jack opts for the replacement surgery. Jack has the NMC that kicks in next summer, and I guess the ability to collect his money on IR while damaging his career. Sounds like we are going to be here for a while.

About 4 inches. Allen is also the better QB. Allen has already learned he doesn’t have to do it alone. Baker isn’t quite there yet. I’m also a Baker fan. He won me over during the GA vs Okla Rose Bowl.

I believe both sides have overplayed their hands, but I don't think there was ever much of a market for an injured player who is owed $50 mill in a flat cap world. Jack was always going to have to get back on the ice for Buffalo to get value for him. The two sides should have figured out a way to get some sort of surgery done already so that Jack could be ready by camp. Both sides needed to move to get something done. Jack's old agent basically told KA to allow him to get the surgery he wants, pay him all the money and trade him immediately and never negotiated to get a deal done. KA should have and did says FU and I think this ultimately lead to the agent change. My guess is the new agent is willing to change something in Jack's position to get a deal done. Could it be waiving his coming NMC, could it be the type of surgery? Both are possible, but I think the more likely solution is the purchase of an insurance policy of some kind to protect the Sabres $ wise if he gets the disc replacement surgery. I have a friend in the specialty insurance business, I'll have to ask him what is possible. Ultimately Jack is going to have to get some type of surgery and prove healthy before the Sabres can trade him. It's way past time for Jack and Ka to figure something. out.

What you are forgetting is the effectiveness of the 100+ games. In these general calculations grinders are counted the same as superstars. It doesn’t feel like 30% because most are, sorry to say, easily replaced players and many of those bounce between the NHL and AHL. My guess is maybe 10-15 reach 800 games each year.

Those numbers look similar but success rate later a little higher. What is the same is the cliff after pick 25.

The number that play at least game varies year to year depending on the strength of the draft, but 45-52 % is a good figure. Hockeydb.com has the % on their draft pages. As to the 4th It is lower. Scott Cullen, then w TSN, did a study and it’s about 18% or less. It goes down to 11% in later rounds. I’ll dig up his study and post the numbers when I get a chance.

Jack is certainly not starting the season on any roster at this point. It's very unlikely that he'll be recovered enough to play whichever surgery he gets at this point. The longer the continued delay on the surgery, the longer it will be until he is back on the ice. That said, I'm actually of the belief he'll have to return and play for the Sabres before anyone will make a legit offer for him. This is speculation on my part, but it seems to fit the facts as we know them right now.

I'm not sure if Red Wings fans are more optimistic or if our fans smarter or more bruised. What I do know is we have a right to be somewhat skeptical of the decision making of the last 3 GMs and our drafting reflects this. For example Jbot drafted Johnson when he could have taken skilled O players that had higher consensus ratings and who are already in the NHL or KA's draft of Quinn when young centers like Rossi and Perfetti were still on the board. He also reached on Rosen (ranked in the 20's on most boards) and took two Russians in the second who may never come to the NHL. Add to the fact Tm drafted Nylander over Sergachev, how few 2nd rd picks for this organization have made a positive impact here since 2013 and that RK nearly destroyed Mittelstadt and we the fans have earned our skepticism

I'm as negative as anyone about the team's chances this coming year. I agree that this is a full on reset. I have stated in other threads that with our current goaltending we'll be lucky to win 20 games this coming season. I'm as pissed as you are. I thought if we got good goaltending, added a few stay at home veteran D and kept Sam, this could be a very good hockey team even with a ton of kids in the lineup. Instead, KA blew it up. No McCabe (or suitable replacement), No Ullmark (or suitable replacement) no upgrades anywhere in the lineup at all. That said, this thread is about hope for the future. I was and am hoping for which pieces here today are the core. Cozens, Mitts, Dahlin, and Power are pretty obvious. However R2 is the player that intrigues me. He is the one guy I can see forcing himself into the future core. I just like the way he plays. Also Asplund is a guy who I think will be this new core's Jochen Hecht.

As I’ve said before, KA pivoted from a support young team reset to a full rebuild once Ullmark bolted (and my guess is no one else of quality was interested in coming here). However, I’m going to try to pull this thread back on the tracks. Regardless of how we got here, this team is now firmly in the hands of the kids which for the most part is a good thing. The question is which of these kids are the new core and where will be in 2 years. As @dudacek pointed out there a few pieces of this puzzle waiting to appear. The proceeds from the Jack trade could significantly alter the perception of what we have today and going forward. How long until Rosen and the 2 second round Russians come to NA? Does Rosen have a chance of being a Sabres in 2 years? Is his possible move to center a significant positive development for the team? One thing that is bothering me is KA’s no blocking policy. I think there is a fine line between not blocking a prospect vs supporting a young core. We saw this past season how KA, RK and even Jbot blocked some of the kids. Why were Asplund and Mitts on the taxi squad to start the season? Hindsight is 20/20 but why were guys like Eakin, Sheahan or Reider ever playing ahead of either guy. This time I think KA has gone to far the other direction (see UPL). For this reset to work KA and his staff need to determine who is core is pretty quickly and supplement from there with vets where appropriate.

Admittedly I have beaten this dead horse pretty badly over the signings of Anderson and Dell. I don't think either guys is currently an NHL caliber goaltender any longer. Maybe Dell will prove me wrong. I also don't think and frankly can't understand why KA (other then incompetence) would think that UPL, whose save% was 37th in goalies with 10+ games AHL last season, could suddenly be NHL ready. However there is a small ray of hope for the goaltending. There are two major events coming where a new goaltender could find his way here. First the Eichel trade. Maybe a decent goaltender will be the cap casualty or a young vet in the Eichel trade. For example, maybe Georgiev will be a piece if Eichel is traded to the NYR. Secondly, trades or waivers during or following training camp. Last year guys like Nedjelkovic and Forsberg were waived following camp. Det smartly grabbed Nedelkovic. Right now Dallas has a 3 headed goalie monster and in desperate need of cap space. Right now any of the 3 would upgrade our group, but they can only waive Holtby or Khudobin. I expect a trade here rather then one getting waived. See I'm not all negative.

Not trying to finish last? They are deliberately selling off their most value assets in Eichel, Reinhart and Risto. Once we have sold Eichel, the key center position has been downgraded. Once they failed to retain Ullmark, (a conclusion that was probably inevitable given the last place finish, the selloff of assets and offers from contenders), KA clearly pivoted to "full reset" by replacing Ullmark and Hutton to 2 goalies who are not long fit to be called NHL goalies. Are they trying to finish last. I think they absolutely are. If they truly wanted to support the kids and give them a chance each night they would have worked harder to get a suitable replacement for Ullmark.

That is a banned phrase my friend. The euphemism on the day is "reset"

That isn't exactly true. The signed Tokarski and he ended up playing 13 games for us. We also had a ton of goalies in the system last year. We had a good starter, Ullmark, and questionable backup Hutton, a good prospect in UPL, 2 signed vets in Tokaraki and Houser and an aging prospect in Johansson. All appeared in the NHL for us last year because of injuries and trades. With this stable, my only disappointment was not upgrading Hutton because of his past poor performances and Ullmark injury history. KA spent all his money on Hall and didn't upgrade Hutton. Instead he added Tokarski as Hutton 2.0. This season we need a real plan in net beside pray that the injury prone starter wanted to stick around. Instead we got the declining 3rd stringer from NJ and a guy contemplating retirement.

There is one huge difference. Cozens, R2, Samuelsson, Mitts, and Asplund have shown they can handle the NHL. UPL hasn't shown that he can handle the AHL. His save % was 37th in the AHL of goalies with 10 or more games last season.

Questionable is a generous term

It’s a reset without goaltending

I tend to agree. How many teams ever field a squad with 15 or more internal prospects on their roster. I think the Blackhawks when they won their first Cup with Kane were close. That said, if we stay as a budget team and with the current philosophy of letting the kids play, I think the likelihood of this kind of roster increases. This is also an exercise in seeing which prospects do the people here thing will force their way on the team over the next couple of seasons.

Please see below

Dell's save % over the last 3 seasons is .895 in 65 games on terrible teams. Ullmark's over the same period on equally bad teams in .911 in 91 games.

Yes. Ullmark's line is better. He is 4 years younger and his play has been improving while Dell's play has been going the other direction. KA will look like a genius if Dell somehow returns to the form of 2017/18, but don't count on it.