GASabresIUFAN

Watching NHL Now and they are interviewing Jordan Samuels-Thomas who is now an NHL ref. First Kea now Samuels-Thomas .

I don't think this is to outlandish. There are 2 real possible places this happens. 1) Okposo line center. The Sabres need a better Cody Eakin and Asplund or Girgensons could become the odd man out because of it. I can easily see a deal of Asplund for a medium $ middle six center. 2) Depth on defense. Bryson is a nice utility D who I believe KA would prefer to keep, however he himself he wants another veteran RHD in this lineup. Like the Asplund deal, Bryson for a top 4 veteran RHD. From a Sabres standpoint neither player is irreplaceable and have deficiencies in their games that puts them down on the depth chart. However other teams would love to have them because of the reasonable skill level and cheap contracts.

The last one is Kalinin.

That won’t get us to the cap floor. We need to upgrade Eakin, Pysyk and the goaltending. I don’t think Fitz or Pysyk are good enough to be in our top 6 next season, except as injury replacements. I also think we need a center for KO’s line. One who can do what Eakin does, but adds significantly more offense and who can play up when necessary. Asplund and Girgensons aren’t those guys. They are better suited on the wing, and neither is stellar in the faceoff circle. Z is a career 45% and Asplund 42. Eakin has won nearly 57% of 860 draws this season. Z and Asplund have only taken 300 draws total.

Yep. We have pulled the goalie 30 times and have given up goals 17 times. While becoming a better team will eliminate the need to pull the goalie so often, even good teams give up 10 or so a year. Here is where improved D and G come in. The Sabres YTD have allowed 275 goals on 2596 shots with a save % of .894. Pitiful! The league average is only a .902 save %. If our goalies could save shots at just the league average it would shave 21 goals from our goals against. Get our shot suppression to the league average even with the current goaltending it also shaves 21 goals from our goals against. Do both, aka just get to the league average in shots allowed and save %, and we decrease our goals against per game from 3.53 to 2.99. At a 3 gaa per game we might have even been in playoff contention most of the year. KA job this summer is to get real goaltending for this team.

I think these are two different groups. Mitts and VO have passed their evaluations with their play since the calendar turned to March and they got healthy. Bryson has also passed and I can see him being re-signed to a 3 year extension. Asplund, Fitz and UPL are a different story. Quinn and JJP are pushing Asplund down the lineup and maybe out. Fitz is Rory Fitzpatrick 2.0 and UPL has next year to prove he belongs. Otherwise, he will be replaced.

I think athletes are hard wired to want to win championships. I think most of these kids would relish an opportunity to go to Rochester to try to win a championship regardless of level. They would all benefit from playing playoff hockey. I doubt any of the kids would take it as a demotion, but as an opportunity. They might be annoyed at missing NHL money for a couple of games.

The minimum age for the AHL is 18. However the CHL and NHL have a side agreement that keeps CHL kids in the CHL until basically they are 20. The cut off is 12/31. In our recent draft class Kozak was born 12/29/02 and therefore is eligible for the A next year, while Nadeau, born 1/15/03 isn’t. The exceptions are a CHL player can suit up in the A upon completion of his CHL team’s season and if they are foreign players on loan to the CHL. Alex Nylander was one such player on a loan. The last exception is a player under 20 can go to the A if they have completed 4 CHL seasons. Of course, a signed player can skip the AHL altogether and go straight to the NHL. There are no age limitations.

That’s what I thought when I looked it up for the Rochester thread. If I remember correctly only Kozak of the CHL players from Bloom’s draft class is eligible for A next season. I’m happy for Bloom. I thought he was drafted to early, but Bloom has really blossomed this season. I’m really looking forward to seeing how Bloom, Nadeau and Kozak build on their excellent junior seasons. We could really use the forward depth over the next couple years.

What about having one more chance at a National Championship?

I’m glad he is signed, but is he eligible for the A next season, or will this contract just slide next season?

That’s not a fair comparison considering the surgery Jack is recovering from. Assuming both are healthy next season, that will be a more reasonable comparison. I like the ROR comparison better. I also would ask knowing what we know now, would we be better off with Thomas, Kyrou or Thompson as the compensation for ROR?

No, but he does have a more lethal and accurate shot. Jack has been a pt a game player since age 22. Tage, 24, even with his breakout season still isn’t there. He is a good passer but not on Jack’s level. He also isn’t as fast. Ultimately, if Jack can stay healthy, I can see Jack putting up a 90 - 95 pt season. I don’t see Tage reaching those heights.

15 goals 45 assists. Since the calendar changed to March, Casey has 14 pts in his last 23 games (a 50 pt pace) with 18 of those games against playoff teams. Now add a Quinn to his line and the sparks will fly.

Actually it’s 6.5 mill under the cap floor. Typo. Sorry!. However don’t forget it’s actually more than that. If Hinostroza, Pysyk, and Anderson aren’t retained, that’s another 4 mill under the Cap Floor. Waive Bjork, that opens up another 1.1. The way I look at it is there are 4-5 open jobs for next season; starting goalie, Okposo line center, veteran RHD (upgrade over Pysyk), and extra skater (could be either a 14th forward or 8th D). The 5th opening is the backup goalie if UPL isn’t ready. To fill these jobs, they have to spend at least 11.5 mill to get to the cap floor (16.5 if VO isn’t re-signed) and up to 31 mill to get to the cap ceiling.

Actually my bad at 55 mill we are 6.5 under the cap floor.

https://www.nhl.com/stats/teams?report=goalsagainstbystrength&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20212022&seasonTo=20212022&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=goalsAgainst&page=0&pageSize=50 Nhl.com breakdown they type of goals each teams scores and allows by type.

I've done this projection earlier. The Status Quo team is as follows https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/3200901 1) Re-sign VO for 4 years 5 mill per season 2) Re-sign RFAs Bryson and UPL for 1 mill each for 2 years 3) Re-sign UFAs Vinnie and Anderson for 1.5 each and Pysyk for 1.25. 4) Promote JJP, UPL and Quinn. This is a 23 man roster (14 F, 7 D and 2 G) for 55 million.(About 6.5 mill under the cap floor) Lines look something like this Forwards Skinner, TNT, Tuch VO, Mitts, Quinn Asplund, Girgensons, KO Krebs, Cozens, JJP (Bjork and Vinnie are extras) Defense and Goaltending Samuelsson Dahlin Power Jokiharju Bryson Pysyk (Fitz) Anderson, UPL

Maybe to many variables? For example what type of franchise are they going to in the NHL. When Ryan Miller, Roy, Vanek and Pommers came up from Rochester after a dominating season in the A, the Sabres were already turning it around and were ready to take a leap forward. I feel much the same way about the influx of Power, Quinn and JJP. However this isn't always the case. Often Calder Cup winning teams in the A are very veteran laden squads. I went and looked at the leading scorers in the AHL. Using points, the Sabres have 2 of the only four legit prospects in the top 22 scorers. They are both the youngest two scorers on the list. Glass (13th) has been called up. Quinn is 22nd in points but Quinn is second in the A at Pts/GP at 1.40. JJP in 14th in points. Not bad for a 19 year old.

by team or player? Haven't people done extensive research on NHLe based on age in the AHL and how it translate to scoring in the NHL?

That’s the error. We played on Jan 1 and the NHL included that in your numbers. That would be 11 "dec" games with an 2-6-3 record or .318 Here is food for thought. In the 20 games from Nov through Jan in which Dell or Subban didn't play, the Sbares were 8-8-4. That's hockey 500.

LOL, the last one should have been easy. I was so concentrated on older players I forgot an obvious one.

Where did these numbers come from? I get the same points % for Nov, but in Dec I get .300 (2-6-2 or 6 pts out of 20) and in Jan I get .417 (4-6-2 or 10 pts out of 24). FYI in Nov the Sabres opponents had a current win % of .537, .599 for Dec and .518 for Jan. The JAG numbers are staggering in those games. Bjork played 86%, Hayden 89%, Butcher 67%, Miller 86% before he got hurt. Caggiula 71% before he got hurt at the end of Nov. Dell/Subban played 16 games in that period and combined for a 1-13-2 record.

I wonder how much of that dip in Nov - Jan is because of a young team without much depth getting hammered by injuries? It would be interesting to see how many games Hayden, Caggiula, Bjork, Butcher, Miller, Pysyk, Subban, and Dell played during that span. I'd also like to see the winning % of our opponents in those months.

Bodger and Van Boxmeer have to top the list. Guevremont, Korab, Zhitnik, Galley, Myers, and Soupy for sure. Hannu Virta I believe as well. I'm not sure if Schoeny, or Mike Ramsey, but they had to have gotten close. Does Lindy Ruff count? What about Krupp and Smehlik?