GASabresIUFAN

Wait until the recession hits.

One of our best AHLers last year. Any way to watch a rebroadcast of the game?

You don’t think they also have Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson and Cozens inked into the core. The only unknown is how much they are getting paid when re-signed. i think there is a great deal of pressure on Mitts and Krebs to perform this year and next. Both are RFAs after 2023-24 and could easily be bypassed in the lineup by Quinn, JJP, Savoie, Kulich and possibly others. If I had to project a top 9 for 2024-25, I see Cozens, TnT, Skinner, Tuch, Quinn, JJP, Savoie and Kulich and maybe Kisakov or Rosen or VO if he continues at a high level. That doesn’t leave much room for Krebs or Mitts, unless they seize the opportunity now.

I don’t know if this was already discussed in this topic, but Girgensons’ roster spot is in danger beyond this season just from talent coming up from below. The Sabres have the following forwards on expiring contracts; UFA - Vinnie, Z, KO and Sheahan; RFA’s - Bjork, Asplund and Cozens. I think this is Bjork and Vinnie’s last season with the Sabres (or Amerks in Bjork’s case). Assuming for arguments sake that Cozens, KO, and Asplund are re-signed, that gives us a forward group for 2023-24 of Tuch, VO, KO, Skinner, Cozens, Mitts, TnT, Krebs, Asplund, Quinn and JJP. That literally leaves one starting forward slot and one 13th forward slot with the following candidates: NHL - Vinnie, Girgensons, Sheahan AHL - Rousek, Kulich, Rosen and possibly Cederqvist, Kisakov or Kozak CHL - Savoie The funny thing is I think Savoie is the most likely candidate for the starting job, if he has a great year in juniors this coming season. Because of his age, he must return to the CHL for 2023-24 unless he makes the NHL club. I suspect he dominates, the Sabres decide he has nothing left to prove in the CHL and he makes the club in 2023-24. Rousek is my second choice. I think the rest of the kids will play at least 2 years for the Amerks. So where does that leave Girgensons? IMHO KA isn’t going to pay Z 2.5 to be a 13th forward. Sheahan or someone like him can fill that role for the NHL minimum. The real issue is that Z is part of KA’s leadership group, but with Tuch and Cozens stepping into leadership roles, KA can afford to move on from Girgensons. By the trade deadline, KA should know where the Sabres stand playoffs wise and if we are out of playoff contention I can easily see Girgensons’ getting traded for futures. PS I love roster speculation questions.

Except in this case. 😉

I was talking about development. To me once a guy is in the system, his performance dictates how quickly he moves up regardless of where he is drafted. Kozak is a great example of what I'm referencing. Given what he did in the CHL last year and how he has performed in training camp, do the Sabres care at all where he was drafted? No obviously not, they care that he is a quickly developing player that's going to suit up for Rochester next season.

I think your view is to limited. Looking at guys from 2015 draft and asking why they aren't over 100 goals is asking to much for a guy who just maybe getting his career underway. In 2015 for example, 14 guys played in the NHL last year. 5 are currently over 200 games, a 6th, John Marino is nearly there. VO was taken in the 7th round of 2014. Don't you think he'll easily get to 100 goals? I better way to look at late from picks is to look at the decade prior, even though many of the best ones are still making an impact in the NHL. This gives a better view of the possible upside because there guys have had time to play a career's worth of hockey. From 2000-2009 6th and 7th rounders have produced 16 players who have played 400-599 NHL games, another 13 with 600 to 799 and another 10 with 800+. 14 of these guys have 100 plus goals with Joe Pavelski the leader with 421 and still going. 2 others, Bryon and Spurgeon are a goal or 2 away. Hall of Famers like Henrik Lundqvist and Pavelski were drafted in the 7th. Plus good to excellent players like Byron, Hornqvist, Stralman, Lee, Spurgeon, Atkinson and Haula among many other familiar names.

I think Kozak is proving his scoring ability is just fine. Maybe he is destined for a depth role, but guys mature at different rates. We might just end up being VO 2.0. I’ve learned the lesson that once a guy is a year or two from the draft, where he was selected, outside of 1st rd picks, has little to do with where they end up. Go look at the 2005/06 team and research where guys were drafted. Kotalik, Max, Soupy, Goose, and Miller were all after the 2nd rd picks. Hell we took Peters in the 2nd rd in 1998 and Kotalik in the 6th. Kozak is already a better player with a better future imho than 3rd rd pick Sardarian

https://www.nhl.com/news/buffalo-sabres-2022-23-season-preview/c-335501386 https://thehockeywriters.com/sabres-3-bold-predictions-2022-23-season/

I thought there was a lot to like in the game. Defense wasn’t one of them. I thought the kids carried play for extended periods although spacing was an issue. I liked Kozak and Cozens. I thought JJP brought a good deal of energy. UPL looked ok, but good in the shoot-out. I like that they are trying to win every game when they play, be it prospects games, preseason games or regular season. Create that mindset and hopefully it will translate to the standings in April.

We’re just going to have to get to the QB to protect the young secondary. The good news is that Miami’s OL is banged up.

That’s the point. Bush knocks Joki down to the 3rd pair and thereby Joki getting 3rd pair minutes.

Again no Bush last year. I believe Joki’s PT was more a reflection of him being the best of a bad lot on the right side. The other options were Miller, Pysyk and Fitz and as you can see from your chart, DG thought they were lousy options and now they, along with Hagg and Butcher are gone. These options were so bad they moved Bryson to the right side and then moved Dahlin over when Samuelsson got healthy. Outside Samuelsson and Dahlin, Joki was our 3rd best D last season. This year we’ve added Power and Bush, which IMHO knocks Joki down to 5th. Frankly, when you look at Joki’s metrics, thats about where he should be in this lineup. His best chance to earn 20 plus minutes is to beat out Bush to be Power’s partner, but given how bad his analytics are, I’m favoring Bush in that race.

But that was before Lyubuskin was a Sabre and the alternative on the right side was Fitz or someone worse. The math doesn’t work otherwise. If the 1st pair is Samuelsson and Dahlin (24 min) and the second is Power and Bush (22 min) that doesn’t leave more than 14-15 minutes for the 3rd pair. As talent is added to the lineup, marginal players move down the depth chart. Unless Joki’s play takes a huge leap forward, he is a 3rd pairing guy at this point.

I just want him to take a regular shift and not be liability defensively. If he and his partner (Joki?) can give us a steady 12-15 minutes a night, that’s all we really need. If they add some O great, but it’s not really necessary.

Sounds to me that they are written into the Sabres lineup in ink.

I didn't make the analogy. Someone else compared extending KA's deal to extending Josh's. All I said was Josh had lead us to the playoffs before being extended. Not only are the sports apples to oranges, but so is comparing GM to player.

Except the NHL is made up of 58% CHL graduates (as of 2021/22 opening night). 8 of 27 picks is under 30% Now compare both to TM who drafted 13 CHL players in 25 picks or 52%. Consider how much better we drafted under Jbot and now KA taking significantly less CHL players, I'd say limiting CHL drafting has considerable merit.

Yes and No. I think those 6 team, especially NYI, CBJ, Buff and Ott are almost too close to call where they finish. Each of those teams have huge question marks that if answered correctly could vault them over the others. Can the NYI score enough and how will they play under a new coach? Can Buf and CBJ stop the puck? How well does Ottawa integrate the new talent. As I've said 50 times, Comrie's play is the key. He gives us even decent goaltending, our ability to roll four talented lines is our great advantage and should help us leap over the teams with more "proven" talent.

Jbot was of the mindset to get prospects outside of the 1st round with a longer lead time until they had to signed. I think this strategy has considerable merit. It has allowed guys like Cederqvist, Rousek, Huglen and others to develop at their own pace. A total ban on CHL I agree is foolish, but staggering when prospects need to be signed is smart. Even KA and company use this in their drafting. Only 6 CHL players have been drafted by KA in this 3 drafts outside the 1st rd (and only 2 of 6 there). 4 of the 5 came in the COVID draft, and I think that stemmed from a lack of scouting in many places. If you break his drafting out side of the 1st rd you see All 3 CHL leagues - 6 (Q - 3, W - 2. O -1) Also Komarov may not be subject to the typical CHL rules (like Nylander wasn't). Russia - 5 Sweden - 5 NCAA/USHL - 1 Other Europe - 3 other NA juniors - 1

Ultimately, his coaching picks and NHL roster decisions were his undoing, but even then we didn't know how really terrible RK was until year 2 and KA gave him Hall, Staal, etc... and the whole thing imploded. To KA's credit he picked the right coach, but has done a better job of bringing in talent since the mess in year one.

By the way that isn't correct. Unlike TM before him, Jbot made Rochester a consistent winner with the goal of the prospects gaining experience and learning to win in the A before coming to the NHL. Unfortunately TM left the cupboard of prospects pretty bare. He also drafted well. He only had 18 picks in his 3 seasons. 5 of those players currently have significant roles with the Sabres, another 6 are in the A including well liked late round picks Cederqvist and Rousek. Another 3 are still in college and all are considered legit NHL prospects. I would say that doing a good job of building the pipeline and helping to build the organization. He also acquired Thompson, Skinner and Jokiharju. He also signed Pilut, who may make the Sabres in camp. I understand the Jbot dislike, but to say he didn't improve the organization simply isn't true.

Thus this contract was premature. Also 4/6 of the D were drafted or acquired by the hated Jbot, plus our 2 top goal scorers, and our next 2 centers.

Yes, but that doesn’t mean anything until we see results on the ice in the NHL. I’m as bullish as anyone on the direction of the team, the depth in the pipeline and the improved organization. I have nothing against a long-term extension, but I think it’s was premature considering we are still near the bottom of the NHL in the standings. If this year go as I hope, then by all means give KA a long term extension as a reward for accomplishing what his predecessors failed to do. So far that’s not the case. Don’t forget Jbot also improved the drafting, improved the AHL and eliminated many pieces of dead weight from the roster. That couldn’t overcome bad coaching choices, some bad trades and other issues. KA has done many good things, but the failure to fix the goaltending is a huge hole in his resume that can also sink rebuild 3.0. I’d have waited one more year before giving the extension.