GASabresIUFAN

If they call up anyone from the A they’ll most likely be in the lineup, unless it’s an injury insurance issue for a road trip. If that’s the case you recall someone like Bjork.

So who wins the Natty? Obviously I’m predicting a GA victory, but how is the game going to go? TCU plays an unusual D with a 3-3-5 or a 3-2-6. This seems like a bend and don’t break D with an emphasis of not getting beat on the deep throw. Their goal is also to try to bait QBs into Ints with this unusual formation and well disguised coverages. Sadly I think that plays into GA’s hands. I don’t see how TCU gets to Bennett rushing only 3. GA can go deep now that Arian Smith and AD Mitchell are finally healthy, but it doesn’t have to. Bennett is at his best when he doesn’t try to be a gunslinger and hopefully the unique D will force him to be patient. Honestly, GA is best when it runs well behind it’s 4 excellent tailbacks and uses short to medium passes to their slot guys (Jackson, McConkey, Jack Saint, and Blaylock). the TEs (Washington, Bowers and Delp) and the RBs especially McIntosh. If GA stays patient, I can see 5-6 long TDs drives. The bad news for GA is they are banged up on D and will be playing 4-5 freshman. DL Nolan Smith is out, Chambliss (Smith’s replacement) is also banged up. Also TCU has playmakers of their own including an excellent dual threat QB in Duggan, a top WR and excellent RB’s. They will score on GA if the Dawgs can’t contain Duggan and get the pass rush home. The bad news for TCU is much of their passing is set up on play action. They need to run effectively to set that up and no one rushes the ball on GA’s defense and OSU didn’t even try. With the game on the line GA’s D stepped up in the 4th QTR where GA outscored OSU 18-3 to win the game. I think the game is close in first half and even into the 3rd qtr, but GA’s depth allows the Dawgs to pull away in the 4th qtr and win by at least 10. 41-31 final score with TCU’s final TD coming in garbage time. One other note: I’d love to see the Bills draft Duggan. He reminds me of Josh. He has size and runs well. He is a top competitor and has improved as a passer.

If Vinnie goes down, I honestly doubt he'll ever return. At this point in the season they are going to want to get a look at Weissbach, Biro and Rousek if injuries strike. They also like Murray's game.

Actually he won't as Asplund is still on roster if Vinnie is waived.

He has made 7.2 for his career according to capfriendly. By the time a move is made, he’ll gave earned about 50% of this year’s 1.7. He very well could want the additional money, but he also might want an opportunity in another organization to try to earn a contract for next season. I don’t think spending the rest of the year in Rochester is the best way to earn an NHL deal for next season.

1.7 might be hard for some teams to fit him in under the cap, but at the vet minimum he might have a better chance of going to a contender.

That might be true if the money is more important to Vinnie than playing in the NHL. If Vinnie and his agent think someone will pick him up, he may just forgo the money. Admittedly Sheahan thought he'd be better off, but he's now in Switzerland (with 0 pts in 6 games so far).

Maybe not LTIR, because is primarily for significant injuries, but they could easily use the IR to rest guys with nagging injuries for a week. For example Bush has been playing through a few injuries, maybe it’s time to rest him for a week or two to get healthy. Anyone have any idea when Joki is scheduled to return?

I wonder if Vinnie will ask for a release like Sheahan did if management tells them he is going to be waived?

The easiest thing for KA to do when Comrie finishes his rehab stint is to send UPL down, but is this the right thing to do? It should be noted that only Det is currently carrying 3 goalies and waived Vrana (who cleared) to accommodate that situation. There is only one primary reason to keep UPL up and that is he has arguably earned the job and isn’t that what KA has been preaching during this rebuild? There is a secondary reason to keep him as well. That is the schedule. The Sabres have 4 games a week for the next 3 weeks. With Anderson limited to a weekly appearance and the Sabres playing well it may be in the team’s best interest to keep all 3 goalies to weather the schedule storm, especially with many “winnable” games in the Jan schedule. The downside of such a decision is that someone else would have to be waived, traded or sent down when Comrie’s rehab stint ends in a week. A similar second possible move might also have to happen when Jokiharju returns. Candidates 1) Waiver exempt players - JJP, Quinn, Samuelsson, Krebs, and Power. Anyone see any of the kids being sent down? I don’t either. Krebs was the most likely, but he has found a home with Z and KO. 2) Forward depth - The emergence of Krebs and Jost as the 3rd and 4th line centers have stapled Asplund (RFA) and Vinnie (UFA) to the bench. Some here may be cheering for a Mitts or VO trade to open up a roster slot, but that is highly unlikely at this point in the season. 3) Defense Depth - With Joki out, Clague (RFA) has emerged as a reasonably solid piece, who like UPL has earned his job in the top 6. Bryson has been our worst D, but is under team control with one more year on his contract (at 1.85) and then an RFA. Fitz (RFA), is our only R had shot depth at D. Pilut has already been waived. 4) Goalies - Could Anderson or Comrie eventually be traded? So what is KA going to do? My initial thought was that he sends UPL down unless he someone gets injured and we open a roster spot that way. UPL still needs work on his game (glove side) but the compete level is now certainly NHL caliber. Then I looked at the schedule and the team getting closer to a playoff spot and think that moving out Vinnie or Asplund is not an unreasonable decision given our depth at forward. I think both have some limited trade value. Maybe KA can something for them rather then just waiving them and hoping for the best. The downside: Who do you send out when Joki returns? I think we can afford to lose one of Vinnie or Asplund, but not both. I really don’t want to see Bjork on a consistent basis again ever. A 12-8-3 roster doesn’t work for me. Thoughts?

Neutral site in Atlanta? Count me in.

Honestly all the news has been good. We know and his team knows he is alive, responsive and making progress. He has a future and that is an awesome development.

I’ve never listened to many podcasts. Just curious who people here listen to.

I don't know where you get that number. Hockey-reference has his Ozone starts at 52.6%

This is a much better post then your last one.

Actually they aren't. Players in the top five are historically better. After that from picks 6-25 the player's odds of playing 100 NHL games are about the same. https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/ Dobber wrote an interesting article about that a few years ago and their results were very similar to what Scott Cullen published when he was with TSN discovered about a decade ago. I found a copy of Cullen's stats on a spreadsheet I had from 2009. He wrote then that a pick from 5-10 had about a 74% chance of playing 100 games and while it varied some from class to class, picks 20-25 had a 72% chance. After that it feel quickly. It stays at about 25% until mid way through the 3rd and then it fall quickly into the low teens.

I want them to upgrade the defense. DG himself has stated that he has saddled that line with the depth D.

Z is a decade into his career and Casey isn’t. I’d expect Z to know his role at this point.

Z was a top 15 pick. Why isn’t he an underachiever under the same standards being applied to Mitts? Z’s best season is 30 points but over the last 6 years he has averaged about 18 points. Casey already has 20 points in 36 games and is on pace for 45+. What more can Casey do with his role when DG admittedly has saddled that line with lousy D?

I didn't realize that Spacek was Jaro Spacek's son.

Oh by the way, I think people need to rethink what their expectations are for anyone forward drafted 8th overall. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/draft_by_pick.php?position=8 I went and looked at the history of that draft position for the last 25 years and for the most part the players end up being middle to bottom of the lineup forwards. For every star like William Nylander and Sean Couterier, you have 2 or more complete busts like Scott Glennie, Alex Nylander, Alexandre Picard, or Zach Hamill. You also have a large group of role players like Taylor Pyatt, Mark Bell, and Pierre Marc Bouchard

Robertson vs Thompson Robertson - age 23 - YTD 39gm 26g 29a 55 pts - Career 167gm 84g 96a 180 pts Thompson - age 25 - YTD 36gm 30a 25a 55 pts - Career 259gm 86g 72a 158 pts As much as I love what Thompson has become, Robertson is as good a player and is 2 years younger.

Casey is on pace for a 46 pts season. That's excellent production for a 3rd line player making only 2.5 million. There has been constant talk on this board about how Casey is a turnover machine. The stats don't bear that out. His 2.15 Gva/60 is 65th worst among NHL forwards, which isn't great, but not terrible either. Skinner is the Sabres worst forward on giveaways at 2.20 per 60. (57th worst). None of these guys are even close to the 4.72 by Pastrnak (NHL's worst), or even Kucherov (3.90), Barzal (3.84), Draisaitl (3.71), or McJesus (3.31). On takaways, Mitts is second at on the team at 2.36 behind only Tuch at 2.46. Mitts is a net +2 between Gva and Tka. Skinner is the closest we have to a "turnover machine" and he isn't even that bad. His net -6 is the worst among our forwards. The only other - Sabres forwards are Krebs (-1) and JJP (-2). Oh by the way Casey has 2g 5a for 7 pts and a +2 in his last 10 games. I thought it was very telling that Casey was the player DG promoted to the top line during Skinner's suspension. I'd love to see the chart which shows what D Casey and VO were most often paired with.

@Taro T I agree with your long post. Mitts has been significantly better since moving to wing. I like the chemistry developing between him and Jost. DG mentioned a few weeks ago that part of that lines problem is that he has given them significantly more PT with Bryson, Bush and other depth D. It's hard to create offense when the D can't even get the puck up to the forwards.

Why? He costs more and gets hurt more. I’m also not sure how he’d fit into KA’s plan. I think he has VO’s slot going to Savoie as early as next season.