Thorny

Yup. I think the fact it’s hard to nail down a solid projection is sort of the emerging key - like you said, there are a lot of ifs. Therefore we can’t imo say we have enough with anything close to the amount or certainty a team on the verge of missing the playoffs 5 straight times under this regime deserves to have

I agree. It’s “can you see a path with what we have?”, again. Yes. There’s a path. But this isn’t being proactive to seize the goal. We MIGHT score enough goals with this lineup and it’s not a poor argument to think we will, but no we certainly don’t KNOW we have enough and we should be adding more. Adams job is to do it, not configure a lineup where it’s reasonably possible. It’s ok to take steps to ensure it happens. It’s ok to aim for more than just enough or prevent more goals. 2 way 3C would help both things

This seems well reasoned I’ll go with your number lol 260 to be precise. That seems a good over under. That would have been good for 15th

I’m not close to being able to figure that out. For comparison, I do know that when you see those predictions online for new seasons, how often does our point projection for example look eerily similar to the one that came right before and we all say, “ah well that’s too low…you forgot to account fo…well, Boston is old!” and we end up within 2 points of the projection at years end. They know more about those prediction models than me I don’t know what I’d EXPECT but I bet you it’s closer to what we just did than you’d think, particularly when, looking in the macro and being honest, we’ve had a fairly uneventful offseason Ruff is an admitted wildcard it’s also hard to separate bias. I want to say i wouldn’t be surprised if we go boom and Quinn and Benson explode and we are second in the Atlantic and the goal total reflects

It’s definitely possible. We’ve never discussed it. I’m on record saying I think Quinn becomes our best forward I merely said Mittelstadt was producing as our best forward and you said I had a “constant refrain” that was “false”

Stickler for me here is the use of “expect”. I think the range of outcomes are wide and the end result far from certain. Averaging out the most recent two seasons and calling that the projection is more so good practice for formulating an educated guess, rather than an expectation. It’s honestly hard to say what will happen. By default I’d think most recent performance would be more predictive overall than older performance, but of course not always. 10th is a reasonable guess but I can’t expect it when, a) we also have to *expect* injuries! b) it’s questionable whether we brought in more goals than we sent out. In fact it might be the opposite. - to elaborate on this, there’s a little bit below the surface shenanigans: Mittelstadt slides out really nicely for us here as his goal totals aren’t that high, but he’s the guy setting up the other guys. With his playmaking gone, I’m not sure we can rule out the goal totals being affected in some way .. tldr : I think it’s reasonably possible they finish top 10 but not reasonably expected. To me, expected means a safe bet. I’m not so sure

I even put the “producing as” (indisputably true in context) our best forward hedge in there and it still wasn’t enough 😫

lol ok man - - - all you ever do is quote my posts and tell me I’m wrong. I get it. We disagree, it’s fine lol But candidly, do you ever get tired of having to argue not in good faith because you are so set on winning an argument? Ya dude. Goals. Let’s intentionally leave out what the playmaker does best haha. What he nearly led the *league* in when we dealt him, 5 V 5 assists do you have to make the bias THAT see through? You removed the assists from the assist man.

Happy Independence Day to my America friends

Savoie really will be the next Danny B

But it’s likely “cabin season”

Well said

Depends who the prospect is, too. Top prospect is sort of vague. This is one of those things we just have to disagree on because it’s a manifestation of us not valuing playoffs in the same way. Using the term “rental” for an entire year period doesn’t even compute for me. The league is measured in seasons. The entire lifespan of the best Sabres team I’ve seen is 2 seasons. My entire fandom is holding on because of 2 seasons - one season is a lot. It doesn’t surprise me Adams wouldn’t be confident that a successful season could convince an Ehlers to stay, he doesn’t seem a good recruiter in ideal circumstances, never mind having to sell a player on not yet apparent success Back to the prospect. If the top prospect is, say, Rosen. Krebs - irrelevant asset rosen - superfluous asset 2 first round picks yes, I pay two first rounds picks for Ehlers. There is zero evidence not trading our first round picks leads to a modicum of success It’s a pittance in reality. It’s only “ludicrous” by this artificial adherence to the market video game we all partake in for fun its 2 draft picks. Who seriously cares. (I get people do. I just don’t and can’t understand it.) With a guarantee of playoffs, would you make the move? If the answer is yes, it just then comes down to our belief in Ehlers but also and probably more importantly our willingness to risk paying the price and failing. I think the reason it’s so easy for me to risk it is because I for one contemplate and also weight the risks of NOT making the move. Not trading for Ehlers under those circumstances and further decreasing our likelihood of making the playoffs is more risky to me. The fallout missing the playoffs would entail, in several facets you don’t think we can afford to pay the price, I don’t think we can afford not to. Simple as that

The abundance of left handed shots is def a part of it. Many are adept at both sides. But it’s significantly more common to play on your “proper” hand and playing off-hand on a top pair is quite unusual. There are disadvantages, but offensively it may help with passing lanes I guess

It’s all joever

Almost as ludicrous as a 14 year playoff drought

Come on I don’t look THAT much like him

So what you are saying is Bowen Byram was a net negative player Just so I understand, you want to fight the battle that being only *somewhat* of an…overall disadvantage to your hockey team is a reasonable return for not only the player producing as your BEST forward but also, the largest trade chip your GM has ever utilized in a hockey trade?

Right right. The defense at least in ability definitely improved because of Byram. Remains to be seen if the team did. i think I said before I wouldn’t be surprised if they added no one on D (and they really haven’t). I think the group looks fine / good. There are some advanced stats out there suggesting otherwise maybe I’m being too traditional on this but the talent there looks good. Byram’s defensive impacts were the worst on the team. Like, the actual last position Train wreck in his own end and he’s a dman Also Casey’s good playoffs fairly or not prob factors in to perception

Johnson is a lefty just don’t see the relevance in terms of needing to play power with Dahlin Dahlin’s metrics are slightly better on the left They both play both Ya the handedness thing tends to bug me too

And?

So you are 100% certain the Sabres make it. I thought I was the guy selling the time share @dudacek

But, as of their current play, certainly not easier to replace Casey Mittelstadt than Bowen Byram, which, forgive me, is far more salient than somewhat arbitrary line designations I’ve had this discussion with you multiple times. That if we don’t address the need at F, we are relying on a potential Byram advantage on D to make up the gap, plus goaltending. I think I posted that literally today. We’ve also discussed how it’s only a concept: we aren’t getting good hockey from Byram yet. Perhaps it’s not so hard to understand why he’s an afterthought when his play was also an afterthought when measuring quality The ball is in Bowen’s court to show he can be that good Byram NOW In *Buffalo*