GrassValleyGreg

Count me in the pro Firkus camp (although I didn't -- and still don't -- mind the Rosen pick). I'm working on some short write-ups on my top targets for the 16, 28 picks. So far, among the forwards, Jagger's there, along with Gleb Trikozov and Filip Mesar. Obviously I'm not a guy who disqualifies an 18 year old on size alone.

Elite Prospects did a deep dive on Marco a couple days ago with in depth video made available to the public. His skating: His physicality: How he scores: He makes his living at the front of the net, showing great creativity and hands in tight spaces and the ability to elevate the puck quickly and finish. Many see a low ceiling for Marco but I see a 30+ goal, glue guy as most likely outcome. Goal map: His passing: I called him a pass first center in my first write up but on deeper dive, I'm not so sure that is the case. Still, he has solid vision and I really like how he opens his hips and uses his edges to see the full ice.

The Athletic just published some insider quotes from scouts and execs on some of the more interesting and debated prospects heading into the draft. Pretty long write up from Pronman so apologies if the length here is obnoxious. Some key names/debates that have been discussed on Sabrespace: Geekie v. Savoie: “Geekie. He’s a true center, I’m not convinced Savoie is a center and it’s close enough that teams will take the center.” ; “Savoie. He has legit top six offense. He has NHL pace, skill, compete. Geekie is just big and has skill, but there’s no motor in his game.” ; “Savoie is too power-play reliant. I don’t see him driving a line in the NHL. Geekie will at least be able to use his size to win battles and help you a bit at evens so I lean Geekie.” ; “I want to love the idea of Geekie but when I actually watch the ICE, Savoie just accomplishes more.” ; “I would take Savoie. He’s a really good player, he will be a top six guy in the NHL. Geekie has the better toolkit but I think he can be too indifferent some games.” ; “Geekie has a lot of upside, he’d have bigger point totals on a different team. I buy him as a top six NHL center so my preference would be him.” ; “When he’s on, it’s Geekie. He’s a big center who can be physically imposing on his opponents and has legit skill. He’s so in and out though, so my preference is Savoie, who I think is much more consistent.” Takeaway: This seems to come down to scouts' preference on size, with some obsessed with a big bruiser at the center position. I'm always skeptical of young skaters who can be "physically imposing" on their age group. Such a wide range of size and maturity at that age that often does not translate to the pros. It sounds like most agree Savoie is relentless, which I've read before and is a trait I really gravitate towards. First I've heard of Geekie being "indifferent" and having "no motor", but as someone who was not a fan on limited viewings (can't get over his skating), count me out. Kemell v. Lekkermaki: “Kemell for sure. He has the skill and the shot, but he has an edge to his game. Lekkerimaki doesn’t get inside, can’t push a line by himself.” ; “Lekkerimaki would be my choice. Kemell is a good player, plays hard, but Lekke has a lot more skill and offensive upside.” ; “It would be Kemell. There’s more pro there, the compete is quite good, and you saw how well he did versus men this season when healthy. Lekkerimaki there’s a lot of talent but a lot of projecting still left to do.” ; “I would guess Kemell just based on what he did production-wise in Liiga. I think both are a little overhyped. There was a time where you thought both could go top 10, but I think one if not both of them will slide out of that range. It’s hard to sell your GM on small wingers who aren’t special at the top of the draft.” Takeaway: This confirms some things I've read and seen with Lekker. I'm nervous about the reliance on his shot from outside of 20 feet and his unwillingness to get into the dirty areas. I feel like I've read this same type of scouting report for Swedish players for years now, with many more resulting in Alex Nylander than Elias Pettersson. I'm not super high on either of these prospects. Lambert: “If you’re thinking of stepping up in the top 10 or 12 and taking him thinking he’s so talented he’ll figure it out, you’re kidding yourself. In the back half of the first when the next best alternative has nowhere near the tools he has then it will start to make more sense.” ; “I would take him somewhere in the teens. He didn’t have a great season, but you have to remember all he’s done before, and how good the skating and skill package is.” ; “He’s not for me. I’ve seen little progress in his game year over year. The skating is awesome but there’s not much else there that interests me, lot of circling the perimeter, doesn’t make many plays. We’ll let someone else take him.” ; “People talk about how talented he is, but outside a couple World Junior games when I watched him this season he didn’t really accomplish anything. If I had a top 20 pick I would hope to get a better player.” Takeaway: No thanks. Marco Kasper: “I’m in on him as a top 15 pick, maybe even top 10. His compete and character are excellent. The offense isn’t all-world, but he has good skills and plays a pro-style game.” ; “I think you’re for sure getting a player. He’s a third line center all day. Can he be a 2? I’m not sold there’s enough offense there.” ; “I’ve thought third line forward most of the season, but towards the end he started to persuade me there may be more offense to his game. I could buy a second line center but top 10 seems a little rich.” ; “I think he’s a stud. If we had a top five pick he would be in our conversation. I think he does a lot of things at a clear NHL level.” Takeaway: Marco brought me out of a 3 year posting hiatus so I think you all know how I feel about him. I'd be ecstatic with him at 16. I have a similar takeaway after my deep dive on him to the quote about his improvement over the season. No questioning on his character, drive/motor, and development arc. I understand concern of a third line center ceiling, but I just think his skill set exceeds that. Best Dman after top 2: “Denton Mateychuk. Kevin Korchinski and Pavel Mintykuov have the flashy talent but they don’t play defense. Mateychuk can make plays and competes in his own end even though he lacks size at 5-foot-11.” ; “I think Mintyukov would have the slight edge on talent, but due to his Russian passport I would take Korchinski.” “I say Korchinski but with the caveat that I think it’s a massive drop from 2 to 3 on the D list. I wouldn’t take any non-Nemec/Jiricek defensemen in the top 15.” ; “It’s Lane Hutson for me. I get the size concerns but all he does is makes plays. He’s an elusive skater, and he has a high compete level. He was one of the best players in every game I saw him.” ; “It’s for sure Korchinski. He could be a top 10 pick. He’s a dynamic player, a guy you’re projecting as the next Shea Theodore.” ; “It’s Korchinski for me. Don’t over think this one. He’s 6-2, he’s a great skater, he makes a ton of plays. The upside is really high in his game.” Takeaway: Admittedly need to do a lot more work on defensemen, but really like what I see from Mateychuk. Again, it's mostly a size thing with some scouts completely discounting a player because they have some strict player prototype in their heard Excited to dig in deeper on these three, especially Mintykuov who Curt and LGR (two perspectives/opinions I often seek out) both mentioned him on previous pages. Do Korchinski / Mintyukov defend well enough?: “I think both are overrated for that reason, I don’t think either think it well enough in their ends or care enough about defending. They get you excited with their rushes and o-zone play but they’ll frustrate the hell out of coaches.” ; “I’m not as worried about it with Korchinski. The ice tilts when he’s on the ice, he must be doing something right in his own end. Mintyukov I don’t think tries to play defense, but I think part of that is what the team told him to do.” ; “Mintyukov is a little wild with his pinches, but he plays hard and can be heavy on his checks. I think you can work with him. Korchinski just never engages physically, I’m worried he’ll get pushed around in the NHL.” ; “Do I think they’re great defensively? No. But I’m not that concerned about it. They’ll generate so much offense and help you in transition that on balance you’ll be really happy to have them on your team.” Takeaway: Something I'll definitely keep an eye on when I dig a bit deeper. Does Bichsel have enough offensive upside?: “Not for me. I like him but I don’t see enough there to do it in the first round. He’s just big and physical.” ; “I think so. People are sleeping on this guy, not dissimilar to how they slept on Moritz Seider in his draft year. I don’t think he’s as good as Seider, but there are rhymes in their games.” ; “If he’s top four, it’s a No. 4 probably due to the puck-moving game.” Takeaway: Feel some people are obsessing with his size, especially in the context of how nicely he'll fit on our back line. I'd be prefer someone else at 28. Can 5'11'' Mateychuk play top four minutes in NHL?: “Where a lot of the public lists have him like top 15 is rich, I just don’t think that’s reality and where he fits in a draft. Once you get to 20-25, that’s where it starts to make more sense, where the talent level will be so much higher than the alternatives you’re willing to take on the size risks.” ; “I like him. He steadily grew on me as the season went along. I think you can get higher upside defensemen in the front half of the first like Korchinski and Mintyukov, but in the back half he’s more in play for us.” ; “I don’t see it. I get the skating and the skill, but there aren’t many top four D who look like him.” ; “I’m a believer. He makes a ton of plays, his team always has the puck when he’s on the ice. His skating is excellent so I think it will work in the NHL.” ; “If he was 6-1 we would be talking about him in the top five of the draft.” Takeaway: He won't be there at 28 and I'd prefer two forwards at 9 and 16, but I'm a really big fan on limited viewings. (Again, it's so frustrating to hear some of these scouts obsess with size! Not sure what he measured at the combine, but 2 inches is the difference between top 5 and back half of draft?!). How high can Gauthier go?: “I think he could go top three, he has immense pro potential. I’m not sure Cooley is a better pro prospect.” ; “He could be a top five pick for sure, especially for a team that covets those big, fast, hard type of players. I wouldn’t rule out even top 3, although top 5 is more realistic.” ; “I would project him between 4-8. I would guess that’s where most of the league has him, with a third higher having him higher or lower than there.” ; “He will go top 10, but I would personally have reservations on him there. The tools are awesome, he’s big, fast, strong, can shoot it as well as anyone but his brain concerns me.” ; “He’ll be a top 10 pick but his ceiling is 6. I think there’s a grouping at the top of 5 players: Wright, Cooley, Slafkovsky, Nemec and Jiricek who have distinguished themselves." ; “He’ll go somewhere between 4-7. I think he’s a guy teams will keep talking themselves into bumping up their list as draft day approaches due to how toolsy he is.” Takeaway: Like most, I would love him at 9 but he won't be there. I know some here don't think he has the playmaking ability to warrant a top 10 pick, but I feel his hands and vision are (or at least were) underrated. The brain/intelligence comment is interesting and supports the playmaking critique. Third best USNTDP after Cooley and Gauthier?: “It’s clearly Nazar for me. His skating is awesome, he plays on the inside, he has a lot of skill. I think the potential there is really enticing.” ; “I would take Snuggerud. He’s continued to get better and better, he’s so far ahead of where he was a year ago. He’s big, skilled, competes, and can score. I think he’s scratching the surface.” ; “I saw the remark from Nazar about your scouting report that he can be like Brayden Point. That’s high, but I don’t think he’s that far off. He’s a big time talent whose game will work as a pro.” ; “It’s Rutger McGroarty. His compete is elite, he has skill, he scores, he has good hockey sense. The feet are tough but you know he’s going to work at it to improve that area.” Takeaway: I see Nazar as clearly ahead of Snugs and McGroarty, mostly because of the latter two's skating. If our scouts feel this can be improved significantly for one or both of them, I'd be open to them at 16 (McGroaty and then Snugs), especially because their character and vibes are off the chart. The Nazar character rumor wreaks of BS, although I haven't read anything openly positive there. I'm sure Sabres have done their due diligence though, and if they are comfortable with him, he'd be a dream at 16. Lane Huston: “I love watching him play, he’s probably one the most entertaining players in the draft, but I can’t see us picking him, I just don’t see it working in the NHL.” ; “I’m a believer. Torey Krug, Jared Spurgeon, Matt Grzelcyk, this guy’s next. He’s a unique small defenseman.” Takeaway: Size! Yurov and the Russia concern: “I can’t see a team considering him in the top half of the draft. He’s top 10 on talent, but if he’s close to the next best player the GMs are going to pick the next best player. I don’t think serious conversations start with him until about 20.” ; He won’t go close to where he belongs on talent, but after 15 I think it’s going to be too tantalizing for a team. He’s a big-time player.” ; “Everyone’s going to have a top tier of guys. For some it’s 8, 10, 12 players deep. It will depend. After those guys are all gone, you have to start talking about Yurov because the next best guy on your list won’t be close to the player he is.” ; “I think he could get out of the first round or go very late in the first. We love the player, but I think there’s going to be a lot of pressure on managers to not go that route.” ; “We’re not picking any Russians, I can tell you that. Those orders came from way over my head.” Takeaway: If he somehow drops to 28 because of some informal collusion across teams, we should absolutely take advantage. Won't happen though. Best chance to crack top 10 outside of usual consensus: “Kevin Korchinski. He kept getting better as the season went along. He’s got a lot of pro upside.” ; “Jiri Kulich. He looked the part in front of a ton of general managers and scouting directors in Germany at the U18s. I think that will be influential.” ; “Noah Ostlund. He was the best player at the U18s even if he wasn’t named MVP.” ; “It’s Korchinski. He’s a lot closer to Jiricek/Nemec than most people are giving him credit for.” ; “Nathan Gaucher. He’s a big right-shot center, he plays hard, I think there’s some offense there. He played well in front of a lot of GMs at the CHL showcase game too.” ; “It’s not the question you asked, but I think people are sleeping on Lekkerimaki in the top five. When you talk pure skill and offensive upside there aren’t many better in this class.” ; “Marco Kasper is my vote. He finished very well between the SHL playoffs and the Worlds. There’s a lot there to like from an NHL standpoint, he’s shown he can do it versus men, and he’s highly competitive.” Takeaway: No real surprises here. Korchinski top 10 could make our pick there even more interesting (e.g. does Kemell slide?). Need to watch some Kulich tape as a potential pick at 16. Most overrated in Top 10: “Joakim Kemell. I like the shot and skill, but I don’t see him as a driver in the NHL. I think he’s close to a finished product physically too.” ; “I think it’s Lekkerimaki. He’s got great skill and an elite shot, but I think he can be a bit of a passenger at even-strength. He drifts to the perimeter, can’t be the engine on a line. On the power play you love him, but I want more at the top of the draft.” ; “Probably Yurov and it has nothing to do with the player — just due to his passport. He may not go top 20.” ; “I don’t get the Conor Geekie hype. I get the big center thing. We all want big centers. He has skill but it’s not elite skill, he doesn’t skate that well and his compete is average at best.” ; “I think it’s Shane Wright. For a guy who is a presumptive No. 1, when I watch him it doesn’t jump out to me. I have to put the pieces together and overthink on why he’s No. 1. It doesn’t mean he’s not great but at the top spot I want it to be obvious.” ; “I would struggle taking either of Savoie or Lekkerimaki where they’re projected right now. They are great players, they will score in the NHL, but I’m not convinced you win with players like that.” ; “I’m guessing it’s Kemell. He kinda came back to earth in the second half of the season after that run he went on. That 5-foot-9 ½ measurement at the combine didn’t help his cause either.” Takeaway: Don't disagree with many of these assessments as I am lower than most on Kemell, Lekker and Geekie. Informal poll: Best skater: Cooley, Lambert, Nazar Best puck skills: Cooley, Del Bel Belluz, Isaac Howard, Kemell, Lekkerimaki, Neuchev, Trikozov, Shane Wright, Yurov Best hockey sense: Del Bel Belluz, Lane Hutson, Mintyukov, Nemec, Ostland, Slafkovsky, Wright Best shot: Gauthier, Kemell,Kulich, Kyrou, Lekkerimaki,Slafkovsky Most competitive: Bichsel, Gauthier, Jiricek, Kasper, McGroarty

Agree that Kasper seems like a Red Wing type of pick, especially if Yzerman's stable of Swedish scouts see what many others are beginning to. And I understand the comp to Z to a point, and the obvious trepidation of wasting another top draft pick on a high energy guy. But I'd say Kasper has loads more skill. In my opinion, he's a high skill forward with some bite to his game, whereas Z was a bruiser with some skill who mostly outmuscled his peers in the USHL. Kasper certainly isn't outmuscling most in the SHL.

Count me in @dudacek / others camp with Gauthier. But I also expect him to be gone by 9 -- shooters with that size and skill don't come around often -- so a player I've really started to hone in on is Marco Kasper. While he'd be a dream at 16, I could see a scenario where he continues his rise to 9. Here's why I wouldn't be mad about it: For one, I think he is the most NHL ready prospect in the draft. He played 46 games (>11 minutes per) in his second season on one of the best teams in the SHL, and finished the year strong with 6 points in 13 playoff games. He also "played very well for Austria’s senior team, including four points in three games performance at a tournament in November and a major role for their World Championship team" (Athletic). The tape I've seen confirms this -- he was consistently leaned on to carry the puck through the neutral zone and gain zone entries, which he did often and with ease against men. What I really love about Marco is his reputation as a "wrecking ball" and "violent" skater (again, mostly playing men). From Elite Prospects: "Kasper starts every game by taking a run at someone along the boards. He looks for every possible opportunity to run into someone, limited only by his lack of strength. But Kasper’s physicality isn’t mindless. It’s integral to his game. He seems to thrive when turning hockey into pinball. Because when he’s locked into the physical aspect, he’s also winning footraces on pucks, turning board battles into inside-lane attacks, and stretching the ice with well-timed sprints to the opposing blue line." There's a bit of pest to his game and you can see him getting under opposing team's skin. When matched with his level of skill, I see Marco as the player type KA is looking to build around. I'd call him a powerful two-way, pass first center who can easily slot in to the Amerks top 6 or even the Sabres 3rd line out of camp (at least for the first 9 games). I see some Mason McTavish to his game and I can see him taking a similar path in his first year. He's a dynamic skater who pops off the screen when he has the puck, especially when he's able to gain speed through the neutral zone. He's got some dangle to him and is slick in tight spaces, especially around the net (where he drives consistently). He has great vision and is creative with his passing. It's also no surprise that he's a puck hound who is aggressive on the forecheck and in his own zone. He saw PK time in the SHL. He needs to improve his wrist shot and add strength, but has a great frame at 6'1" 200 lbs frame and is extremely coachable according to his SHL coach. All character reports I've read are positive. I haven't seen him talked about much on the draft threads so curious to hear what others think.

Sobotka is clearly not a good offensive forward but no other player can provide the faceoff support needed for a center who's started the year 7 for 24 in the circle. Surprised he has not taken more in the first 2 games, but I expect that to change if Marcus continues to struggle.

I know the Jets have been struggling, but shocked at how little confidence they are playing with. Laine has been non-existent. (knock on wood)

We've controlled the play for 2 periods now. It would be nice to be rewarded with 2 points.

Sobotka gets a lot of deserved heat on here, but there's little doubt that KO is the most stifling offensive player we have.

Confirms what many have seen with their eyes.

Its their development plan for one of our top prospects, which includes variables beyond advanced metrics (e.g. Tage's confidence, his adjustment to NHL speed, etc.). Sometimes The Plan will outweigh optimal lineup. It's a calculated sacrifice for sure, but you'll just have to trust the player/human level assessment from the kid's head coach and GM or else you'll drive yourself crazy. Definitely an easier decision to make when winning.

Will you two please shut up? Take it off the boards

Pretty sure that was the first MTL possession in our end, with less than 8 minutes remaining. Almost entirely due to two lazy plays from Berglund. Our possession game these last two games have been so impressive and foreign to the last 8 years.

The home ice is tilltttedddd big time

Happy to see our play carrying over. Definitely the better chances. Mitts with one of his better periods. Only a matter of time before the points start coming.

More Sabs fans at the Kings and Ducks game I attended last week. This is embarrassing and can't help team morale.

What an embarrassment this crowd is. Really pitiful showing Buffalo.

Fantastic shift from Nylander

Dahlin > Thompson drag > Mittlestadt ?

Borgen throwing his body around and getting under Devils skin.

Tage looks bigger, stronger and faster than any forward on the ice. Not surprising with his NHL experience, but still

Could someone PM me if you have a stream? Much appreciated!

IMO, Tage slides safely into third in our pipeline, bringing a power forward skill set we haven't seen in Rochester in some time. I'd put money on him starting the year with the big club. With 3 first rounders next year, our pitiful prospect pool will improve significantly and begin to blossom as our core peaks and we get major cap relief: the 2020-2021 season. Wish this happened 5 years ago but happy there's a clear three-year plan now. 1. Dahlin 2. Mittlestadt 3. Thomson 4. Nylander 5. Asplund 6. Guhle 7. Davidsson 8. Samuelsson 9. Borgen 10. Olafsson

Mostly a reader here, and I always appreciate your in-depth analysis and discussion Flagg, but in an effort to promote optimism, I just want to point out that your strong disapproval of this trade is grounded almost entirely in opinion. My sense is you're being overcritical of Berglund/Sobotka (clear bottom 6 improvements) and undervaluing Tage as a prospect, who I'd now put number 3 in our pipeline behind Rasmus and Casey (ahead of Guhle and Alex). From what I've seen (admittedly limited but nearly all his international play), he's a big, smart power forward with a super quick and hard release - something we sorely lack in our paltry pipeline. He can possess the puck, is good around the net, and can drive play. The comparison to Zemgus is an odd one. Also, I do like the idea of a nucleus of young American forwards who can grow together at a time when US youth hockey is at its best. Add another first and a second, and we can start to reconstruct an organization bereft of talent. It should have happened 5 years ago, but it didn't, and thats not on Bots watch. I'm positive on: the amount of draft capital we've accumulated watching another skilled American forward grow in the NHL next year an improved bottom 6, including a big smart Swede who can cycle and finish an overhaul of the locker room dynamic, with the reigns now handed over to our franchise player

Love these comps. LOL at the "I'm done with Botts" crowd. See ya.