mjd1001

How far out are they right now? Boston is in the last playoff spot now with a points percentage of .554. To be ahead of that number, the Sabres need to win 4 in a row. No losses. No loser points. 4 wins in a row..then they MIGHT be back into that last playoff spot. Might. The depressing part is, if they simply held onto that 4 goal lead the other day for 2 periods and won, and would have found a way to win yesterday even in OT or a shootout, They would right now be just a handful of percentage points behind the Bruins. Right there sniffing a spot TODAY.

Want to take it a step further? We want to win the cup, but how about the last time they WON ONE single playoff series? Take that playoff drought, and 4 more years to it. Last time in the playoffs? 2011. Last time anyone saw this team win a series? 2007.

Ok, in light of the above: -His advanced stats are AWFUL this year. I saw a post on SM yesterday saying they were bad last year and pretty bad for the last 3 years and declining. -His regular stats: -On a good rangers team he went from +25, to +7, to -4, to 'on pace' to be -11. In terms of offensive production his goals went from 11, to 8, to 3, to zero. Well, hes still physical and hits through, we need that, right? His hits per 60 are down almost 40% this year form the last couple years. Right now he would be 4th in hits per 60 among Sabres current D-men. He's over 30. He has a lot of wear and tear on him. His own team is trying to get rid of him. His stats have been in decline for years, this year he is among the worst D-men in the league in terms of both regular and advanced stats. Oh, and would take up the 2nd most cap hit on your team for this and next year. In light of all that, Why would he make this team better?

I'm not so sure I'd like that. I think his play has dipped quite a bit the last 2 years. Not sue why. But...while I am not a big believer in advanced stats, there are a lot out there showing he's playing like a typical 3rd pair guy..and the Rangers don't seem to want him around. Where there is smoke..... On the other side of it...its $8m per year but only for this year and next. If there is something that happened where he simply is not what he was (likely but maybe you can get something out of him), its Terry's money, not ours....and its not going to cause issues for years and years and years. He's still a decent skater and he hits, he could be a partner for one of the sabres big-young-top 3. I can be sold on him here, but in no way do I think he is any kind of savior and my expectations would be limited.

Yeah I know. No logic there but I WANT to think the Sabres will get back into it, and for some reason when I watch columbus, I have a 'feeling' they are going to be there. Again, no logic, just a feeling that I'm probably going to be WAY off on.

Not good enough to make this team a serious contender. You get McDavid, but you open up even more holes.

If I am going to look on the positive side, and yes, this may be a stretch.....This roster, with Tage being healthy and Dahlin not playing hurt, is enough to 'get' to the playoffs. I guess you can say that with any team (pick out a couple or handful of players that if things were different, the team would be different). But I think they are close to being in the 10th-12th best team in the league with 4 things: 1.) Tage is healthy. If he is you are getting 45-50 goals out of him. 2.) Dahlin is healthy. When he is playing 100% un-injured he is a top 10-15 D-man in the league. 3./4.) Cozens and Quinn. If they were replaced with journeymen who don't make mistakes you would be probably in a playoff spot now...If they would stop making dumb defensive plays and be on a pace for 40 goals between them (what you EXPECTED out of them going into the season), you are fighting for 3rd in the division. You need luck to get all of the above and the Sabres are not getting that. But yeah, they aren't super far away.

No one standing out? No stars? Tage is top 10 in the league in goals even with missing more games than those above him. 3 seasons ago he scored at a 40 goal per 82 pace. 2 seasons ago he scored at a 49.5 goal per 82 pace. Last year while playing a good portion of the year injured he scored at a 34 goal per 82 pace. This year he is playing at a 55 goal per 82 pace. He has 128 goals in the last 3 seasons (almost 40 more than 2nd on the team over that time) with 15 game winning goals. 11th in the LEAGUE in goals per game over that time (out of over 700 players who played more than a full season of games in that period) 3rd in the entire league in even strength goals per 60 (which many view as the BEST stat to show how good of a goal scorer you are), ahead of guys named MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Reinhart, Point, Ovechkin, McDavid, Kaprizov, and obviously everyone else except for 2 guys. 3rd out of over 700 players in the league. You may or may not think he is a great player, but to say hes not a star, bordering on a superstar? At least a star there should be no debate.

If they would have held onto that 4 goal lead and came away with a win against Colorado, even todays OT loss wouldn't have been so bad....but alas.....

The last playoff spot in the east is going to come down to Buffalo or Columbus.

I agree. Its almost as if some people don't want to like him and the moment he makes a mistake they are "trade him, he's awful". Well, 3rd pair guys are going to make mistakes, so are 2nd pair guys. For a 3rd pair guy, I think he makes less mistakes than many others in that situation, and when he does make a mistake he often covers up for it. Plus he's physical. I'm very very happy with him as a 3rd pair guy.

When watching replays of penalty killed goals allowed by the sabers, it seems like the vast majority of the goals they allow are when they lose the penalty killing box. Once that box turns into a rectangle, or a rhombus, or worse, that's when they seem to get scored on. Cozens is by far and away the number one offender of making that happen.

Interesting to see Bryson out there on the penalty kill. I know Dahlin is missing but still surprising.

He did hit the glove, so normally I would think it would be goaltender interference, but he wasn't in the crease. I don't think you can call that one if the guy wasn't in the crease.

When healthy, Thompson is definitely not a problem with this team. I know some people like to say he should be traded after he goes two or three games without a goal, but when healthy... He is an elite NHL goal Scorer.

LOTS of empty seats. At least watching on TV. As many on the sides as I can remember seeing recently.

I know they have tried, but how about just getting into, and staying in, a playoff spot the entire season. They don't need to be fighting for a presidents trophy. Just be in the top 12-14 in the league (yeah, you can even hover in that 10-14 spot) and never more than that...and that would be enough to get people to come to the games. They can't do it, but it would seem to be SO much easier than the emails to season ticket holders, private events, press conferences...etc.

I, among others, have brought this up in great depth in other posts over the last few weeks. To give a very, very quick summary of what I have written: -The Sabres roster and coaching staff (entire operation) is smaller than the Bills. There is less 'separation' between him and the team, therefore much more easy to get involved in a short bursts. -Pegula has admitted he thinks he knows more about hockey than football. Upon taking over the Sabres, he wanted to be actively involved in selecting players, roster construction, etc. The Ville Leino, Erhoff contracts are one example. Also it may have been partly a covid/business side of things, or a player input, but we also know, with quotes from the Pegula's themselves, they fired Botts because they weren't 'being heard' by him regarding their input. An example of smoke if not direct 'fire'. Pegula speaks how he admires Cozens game, how he plays. At the heritage classic, Cozens gets ejected in the third. and ends up watching the game from beside the rink, Pegula walks up to him and talks to him for most of the rest of the game. Pegula doesn't talk much, but there was a report on Twitter from one of the Sabres beat guys that Pegula singled out in a conversation how much HE liked Dylan Cozens. A few months later, Cozens gets a $7m contract extension. Does it PROVE anything? No, that is 'smoke' as I said and not 'fire' but it still leads some of us to think he has an outsized input into roster and contract discussion. -With the Bills, he is around, but he seems to be more of a 'fan'. If you watch the videos of him, he is around the players as much as the coaches and management. He is watching practice often from a distance. With the Sabres, he is frequently next to Adams during games and even practices. We know he frequently attends pre-draft and even draft day meetings and there are witness accounts and some video if him giving his input. I think the Bills management has learned how to massage Terry's ego just enough to keep him at a distance and out of every single decision. He seems, for whatever reason, to have more input into the Sabres.

There is a difference, USUALLY, between "media availability" and a "press conference". I take media availability as someone will be there ready to take questions. A "press conference" is where you are going to announce something. Maybe the Sabres aren't that formal with their definition of things though?

Karmanos as gm...I have a question: How would things be different? We have heard over and over that decisions on roster and players are not made by one person, but are more of a 'group think' exercise. Its like a bunch of guys sit around the table, and its more of a consensus with one or two dissenting opions. Now, Adams has said that is how it works. Pegula I think has said it. We have video of the 'behind the scenes' over the last few years on draft day and preparing for the draft that SHOWS us that is how it works with this team. As much as Adams may or may not be the problem wouldn't you need to change the process, how this team makes roster decisions, before any GM change can really mean much? So, if Adams is fired, wouldn't Pegula probably have the room 'without Adams' as gm operate the same way? Even if he didn't, was Karmanos part of the decision making group that was making the decisions that got us here? And finally, if Adams is 'bumped up' to a different position but is still in that room....wouldn't the ONLY 2 things that change would be who picks up the phone to make the final phone calls and the title on the nameplate on the desk or door? I know people want Adams gone, but how are things any different unless Adams is TOTALLY out of the organization, AND most or all of that entire decision making group (including Karmaos) are gone, AND Pegula declares the new guy has autonomy and the old way of 'consensus making' is done in his building?

It is not a fact for EVERY situation. How can you say something is a fact, just because you want it to be? I have personally found that when I evaluate a player on a team, when using plus-minus with a little 'common sense eye test', it works better than the expected goals that people throw out on this forum. But hey, I guess the definition of what a 'fact' is has to run through you now? Um..nope.

I guess we disagree on that one. When comparing players on the same team, I think expected goals is much worse. They are different stats, they measure different things. But just as plus-minus can get something totally wrong, so can expected goals. A few times over the past few years expected goals was used to say how bad of a game Bryam had or how good of a game Cozens had, and It was obvious to many of us on this board it was way off base.

That is my problem with the xGF% and related stats. It measures where the shots are taken from if I am correct, but are the 'good shots'? I shot that you have time to set up for, maybe there is a screen in front of the net but is from a typical 'bad' area will be rated higher than a shot that is taken from a supposed better area but has no screen or is rushed. Also, as others have said, it doesn't measure a particular players shooting percentage. Tage is, has been, and will always likely be a much better shooter than Cozens, yet some of the advanced stats will not show that. So it takes me back to plus-minus. Yeah, there are flaws and exceptions with it. But on this forum goals expected and other advanced stats that are similar are used often as the end-all-to-be-all to judge a player, and they can be just as flawed as plus-minus. At least plus-minus measures something that actually HAS happened, not something that could happen. If there was only a single stat that somehow incorporated plus-minus, weight that plus-minus with relation to where you were on the ice, and merge that with expected goals for AND shooting percentage.

That is what a message board is for, talking about things and if more than 1 person wants to keep talking about it, than it is a converstation. If we discussed something in the past, should it be off limits to ever talk about it again? Who are you to decide if its a 'failure' because others want to talk about something that YOU PERSONALLY don't want to or need to hear? Geez.

He made Pegula feel comfortable. He wouldn't talk back to Pegula. He wouldn't say "no" to Pegula. Basically, its not that Pegula "Trusted" him....its more that Pegula "Trusted adams to do what Terry wants".