mjd1001

Ok, well I'm about to use, maybe manipulate some numbers to support that he is a top 15, or maybe higher center in the league. First a couple of opinions: 1.) I personally value goals a LOT more than points. A goal to me is worth 2 times, if not more a primary assist. Secondary assists are pretty much useless to me. Well not totally useless, but to me just about as good as a 'plus' on 'plus-minus'. 2.) I think Tage is above-average-to-good without the puck. His size isn't so much for hitting, but for taking up passing lanes. Also, when he is FOCUSED on defense (not looking to break out of the zone) I think he is actually good. 3.) a few of us have maintained that Tage played through an injury the first half of last year that impacted his performance. We do know he had an injury. We do know it was some kind of an upper body injury. We do know that Austin Matthews played through a similar injury the year before and his numbers dipped by almost the same percentages as Tage (goals, shooting percentage) and then when he had an offseason to heal, he came back better than ever. Now as for scoring. To account for that possible period he was playing through injury, take a look at breaking down his production every year since he was made a center (his 4th season now) by half seasons: 1st half of 2021-22: 39 games played, 14 goals in 39 games (29 goal pace per 82) 2nd half of 21-22: 39 games played, 24 goals in 39 games (50 goal pace) 1st half of 22-23: 39 games played, 31 goals in 39 games (65 goal pace) 2nd half of 22-23: 39 games played, 16 goals in 39 games (34 goal pace) 1st part of season through Feb 25: 48 games played, 16 goals in 36 games (27 goal pace per 82) I chose this date because everyting seemed to "click" after (this is when he was playing through the time closest to his injury) 2nd part after Feb 26: 23 games played, 13 goals in 35 games (46 goal pace) 1st part of 2024-25 so far: 9 games played, 7 goals in 9 games (64 goal pace per 82) Take out the only time we know he was playing through an injury (1st part of last season) and you get 105 goals in 200 games played since he became a center, or a 43 per 80 pace. Over half-season stretches, he is at least 'very good' and some stretches where he an 'elite' goal scorer/producer. So on one hand, yes, I split last season up in the way to make it look better for the 2nd part, but that is BECAUSE the farther he got away from the injury, the better he played. Now it was clear to me, and many others, he was playing injured the first half of last year. NHL edge numbers supported that (his skating speed was slightly lower and his shot speed was noticably lower.) Since he became a center, that is his worst production. If you look at his other production (goals per game, goals per 82, however you want to show it), he is one of the better goal scorers in the league. So, a guy who I think is pretty decent (average to above average) without the puck, and someone with goal production numbers like that, (top 10 in the league, maybe top 5 if you take out when he was playing through an injury), and yeah, he's top 15 to me, maybe much higher. Again, That is what I think, and I chose to present numbers to support that view, but the numbers ARE real.

Well, putting a gif up there dismissing someone else's post or taking a shot at what they say, I don't consider that humor, its kinda rude.

To me it doesn't look like a joke either. It looks like somebody who doesn't like what's getting said.... And that's your cute way to dismiss the other side of the argument. I agree with the new guy.

I was in and out with the game, didn't see the whole thing. I missed a lot. What happened to Power? he's listed as only getting 10 minutes of ice time?

So through 9 games, 7 goals and 11 points. No sarcasm here at all with this question....anyone who think he isn't in (or close to) the top 15 change their mind?

Lots of ideas above are pretty good. The ones I like the most: First by a mile: You must be cap compliant in the playoffs -Expand roster size. I can't see why the players wouldn't like that. At least to allow a 3rd goalie. Lot of Vet 35+ year old guys would love this one I'm sure. -You are eligible for the AHL a year earlier now than going back to Junior. Guess what, the junior leagues will survive that isn't going to kill them. -College rule. We all know that a player drafted can just go to college for 4 years and then he is a free agent. How about simply making it..once you draft a player, you retain his rights until he is 23 or 24, or he has to play 2+ years PROFESSIONAL before you relinquish his rights? Some variation of that. -Does it need to be in the CBA? probably not, but WHITE UNIFORMS AT HOME! -How about this (more for the fans than the players). Start times. A lot of east coast teams have weekend games that start early. Boston has a lot, Buffalo has some. I have noticed over the last few years that Boston will sometimes play west coast teams during the afternoon, when back home that means the games start for THOSE fans at 10am. Of course, we know on west coast trips games start here at 10 or 10:30pm. Make an EFFORT to flip that. When on a west coast trip, the east coast team will often have games in L.A., Vancouver, san jose, etc be AFTERNOON start times locally on the weekend (so they are late afternoon here.) and East coast teams on the west coast during the week, start the games 30 minutes earlier? every bit helps. But West coast teams traveling east...under NO circumstance should a west coast team playing in the easter time zone have to play an afternoon game. An example of the above is Boston played Arizona at 1pm on Saturday in Dec 9 of last year...The Bruins played the Kings Sat Feb 17 at 12:30 in boston (9:30am in LA). Make an effort to make things better both ways for the fans. -I'd also like to see buyouts be a little less punitive in terms of cap hit. Now, I don't want them to be 'free' and have no cap consequences. If you sign a bad deal you should pay for it. But maybe don't stretch the penalty out quite as much. I like the idea, but if this had been in place, every team would have those extra slots so Giordano and Reimer would have probably already picked a different team.

It makes sense on the surface and its a better explanation than anything else I've heard but still, it doesn't explain that he came back after it LAST year and played pretty well for 1/3 of a season: -He scored in 4 of his first 7 games right after he came back last December -Last year he had 9 goals in 27 games after coming back (a 27-28 goal pace per 82) -Since he came back not only did he do that right away, but he's had another whole offseason to heal up beyond that. When you DO look at his NHL edge numbers, he isn't skating as well. 2 years ago before the injury his top speed was 22.4mph, which is/was above average for the league. This year, his top speed is all the way down to 21.05, which is well below average for the league. HOWEVER, last year when he came back from the injury he was at 21.86. So that leads to 2 questions, why is his top skating speed SO much below what it was 2 years ago...but more importantly, why is it so much below even LAST year, right after he came back from the injury? (random chance? not enough sample size yet?)

The Cozens line.... I think most of the solution is to 'wait'. 2/3 of the line will likely have its problems solved by 'waiting' -Cozens...this is something we talk in the other thread, but its just a matter of waiting for him to score. 90% of his game is the same as it was even in his best year, if not better. He's getting chances. He's getting high quality chances. He is even getting time to take those chances. His shooting percentage varies wildly from month-to-month and even half-season-to-half season. THIS is what we have seen from him before. If the coaches and him have his game to where he is getting chances....you wait. -Benson...He has played the whole season with a nagging injury. Let him rest and heal that, and when he does come back give him a game or two to 'get back' into playing shape. So with Benson....you wait. -Quinn....I have ZERO idea because his play has been a problem. Few shots. Few quality shots. No great passes, no great play along the boards. Basically invisible on the ice. Ultimately I think the solution to this line producing is MOSTLY something that is very anti-message board...and that is just sitting back and 'waiting' on Benson and Cozens. Benson to heal and Cozens to get out of his shooting slump by himself. If anyone has any ideas on Quinn though, lets hear them.

In many ways their numbers are remarkably similar, in terms of how 'streaky' they are, and in terms of both with the Sabres having similar shot totals but their shooting percentages varying wildly from one year to another...I guess yeah. That might be a very good comparison, at least in terms of what we have been, and can, expect in terms of goal production.

Cozens also routinely goes through streaks like this. -Toward the end of last Season, Cozens had a streak where he had only 1 goal on 43 shots over 18 games. -He had another 22 game streak mid-season where he had just 2 goals on 60 shots in those 22 games. -In his 31 goal year, toward the beginning of the year, he went scoreless for 10 games in a row over with over 20 shots. -in the end of the 21-22 seaons, he went 11 games in a row without scoring with 29 shots -In the last 29 games of that season, he had ONE goal in 29 games through 59 shots. My point again, that IS who Cozens is. He goes through incredibly hot and incredibly cold streaks. If he DIDN'T do that, that would be a sign of something very different. They key to evaluating his offensive game is...."Is he getting the same number of shots as usual" and "is he getting the same number of quality shots" The answer to both of those questions is not only Yes...but he is getting MORE. So, his offensive game overall is as good as ever with one exception (accuracy). We just have to 'wait' for him to get out of a shooting slump...a shooting slump that happens no differently than any other season in his career.

Ok, I keep going back and forth on this, but I do NOT want Cozens 'play' to be shaken up right now. The only thing he is doing poorly the last few games is his shot accuracy. He is finding open areas of the ice in the offensive zone to get shots off better than anyone with the possible exception of Thompson. He actaully IS getting the most shot attempts. I honestly do not want to take a chance at changing that. Its just a matter of him shooting better. Now, Quinn needs something. But right now, at least in the offensive zone, Cozens is doing everything and anything you want other than shooting accurately.

Its a lot of what you just said. People want to see him hit the opposition. When he DOES make a bad play that can often be an excuse to jump on his play. Its kinda like "He doesn't hit anyone and then He makes THAT play!?!?" Right now when Power plays well in his own zone, you don't really notice it. If he is where he is supposed to be (he USUALLY is) and he is making the safe play getting the puck away from the zone, those things aren't always noticed.

They will probably be OK. This is what the Leafs do early in the season before they straighten things out. Last year Toronto was 6-5-2 (basically 6-7) after 13 games and the fans were booing. 2 years ago they were 4-4-2 after 10 (basically 4-6) and the fans were booing. 3 years ago they were 2-4-1 (2-5) after 7 games, riding a 4 game losing streak, and the fans were booing.

New Jersey, they have such a solid team but can't get good goaltending again. It looks like they dominated Detroit last night but ended up losing as Markstrom had another bad game. Great team, but so farm Markstrom and Jake Allen both have a GAA over 3 and a save percentage under .900

I wanted to take a look around the league and look at guys who are goal scorers (average 20+ or more goals per season over the long term) and see if any of them have wildly fluctuating shooting percentages year to year, and month to month, like Cozens does. Most of the top guys, not really. They have some up and down years, but for the most part, they are fairly consistent. A good year vs a bad year is just a couple points apart through most of their career. I did find a few that are wildly eratic year to year with shooting percentage..... McKinnon: yeah, hes good, but he's not a high percentage shooter, he is more of a volume shooter. Early in his career he routinely shot below 10%, his 4th year in the league he shot 6.4% for the year (16 goals on over 250 shots). Since then he has been a bit more consistent late in his career, but still he is usually between 9.5 and 13%. He scores on volume of shots. Max Pacioretty: 5 time 30+ goal scorer. He went from 9.2% one year, up to 14.4% the next. Then in another 4 year stretch, he shot 9.9%, then up to 13.1%, then the next year down to 8.0%, then back up to 11.5...all in the prime of his career. Joe Pavelski. former 40 goal scorer, 12 years of over 25 goals. But year to year, no consistency. In his prime, he has had FULL YEARS where he shot 7.1% and 9.8%, and then other years where he was at 20.2%, 17% and 18.2%. Claude Girioux: in his prime, he had a 3 year stretch of full seasons where he shot 9.1, 9.0, and 7.1%. He followed up that stretch with a full season where he shot 17.6% Patrice Bergeron: I never thought of him as a bit time scorer, but he had 14 20+ goals seasons, including 12 in a row, and 6 30+ goal seasons. Well in terms of his shooting accuracy...He had a 4 years stretch where he shot 13.4, 15.6, 15.3, and 12.6%. In his prime he also had seasons as low as 7.0, 9.8, 8.0, and even 5.2% So again, usually scorers are consistent, within a few points of shooting percentage, year to year and do not have wild fluctuations. But as the above numbers show you, some really good players often go into shooting slumps for seasons, even multiple seasons in a row before coming out of it. Cozens just may be THAT kind of player. A player we have to judge his offensive production not in terms of games, weeks, or months, but years instead. If Cozens is that type of player, we may see entire seasons where he struggles to get 15 goals, only to be followed up by the next season over 30. As fans, it will likely drive many of us crazy.

It really can go either way. To say a player should show you what he is early can be just as correct or wrong as to say one needs hundreds of games. -Tim Stutzle played about 130 games his first 2 years. His 3rd year he scored almsot 40 goals and 90 points at age 21. -Lucas Raymond as an 18 and 19 year old was already a 20 goal scorer on average. His 3rd year, coming into it with 156 games played, he scored 31 goals. -Matthew Boldy put up a 31 goal season, with only 47 games NHL experience coming in. -Brady Tkachuk had similar numbers to the guys above. Then on the other hand... -You have examples like Sam Bennett above, a high draft pick that didn't really break out until he was 25 with 400+ games -Mitts. Break out? He's not a star/superstar, but it took him a few years to really become a reliable player. -Lawson Crouse. He was drafted 11th overall, I remember many in that draft had him projected to go 7th or 8th overall. He didn't become a 20-25 goals scorer until he was 24-25 years old...in his 6th season after he played almost 300 career games. The thruth seems to be, some guys you know whether they are good or bad after just a year or two and maybe 100 games. Others, it takes hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of games and maybe 5-6 years after they were drafted to figure out what they are. It goes both ways.

I am almost 100% against fighting in the NHL at this point. However, I still wonder, if this Sabres team had a TRUE heavyweight, if it would not make players like power, not only more comfortable, but play more physical. If you are playing Washington with a Tom Wilson, or Philly with Nick Deslauriers...basically a team with a true heavyweight that you KNOW will go with anyone...and your team has no direct answer, then as a Sabre you may play a little more timid. You don't want to come close to, even by accident, crossing any kind of physical line because you know there is a chance YOU might have to answer for it. Now, if you have that heavyweight on your team, and something happens, its likely you aren't going to have to go in a fight with that guy, you have a designated guy who will do it for you. I'm not saying having a guy like that will turn Power into a physical monster, a hitting machine, but I think having a guy like that CAN make your team a little bit more physical. Lindy even mentioned that himself when he talked about coaching Rob Ray in the past. Now, I know Aube-Kubel is one who fights quite a bit. I think he has 5-10 in his career, and even some when he was in the minors (which is actually pretty good these days), but hes not a heavyweight. He will fight pretty often, and I can't wait to have that back on the team, but he's not someone that is going to bring that much more confidence, he's just not a 'heavyweight'.

Over the last 2 years, the 3 players I have been the most critical of on this message board were Power, Krebs and Cozens. For some reason, I have come around on all 3. Power is making some bad plays but I think is overall game is progressing. I think he is on his way, as the season goes on, to being really really valuable Krebs, for a short period of time, is looking like he found a 'lesser' role on this team but one he is actually good at. Cozens. He makes some awful decisions on the ice without the puck, but the last 2-3 games he has been good. And scoring? for months I said he's not a goal scorer, he's at best an 8% shooter. But the last few days, despite him not having a goal, I think he is actually going to break out soon. Of the above 3 that I feel better about recently, Power is the one I feel the BEST about. As the season progresses, and into next year, I think he will become the most valuable/best of the 3 by far.

Washington wins 5 in a row. 2nd in the conference in point percentage. Not even all easy wins. They beat the Stars. They beat Vegas. They beat Jersey. I can't think they will keep this up for long, but many of us said the same thing and they made the playoffs last year. In the first 2 weeks they are playing even better this year. Jacob Chychrun had a bad time in Ottawa and they wanted to get rid of him. From the little I have read in Washington, people say he is playing great. They are getting balances scoring (in only 6 games, 9 players already have multiple goals. Buffalo had played 8 games and only has 6 with multiple goals). And their goaltending has only been 'average' so far. They are playing a total 'team' game. lets see how long they can keep it up, but they look good so far.

As far as Krebs skill, to me he has average speed (not bad, but not great), average overall skating (again, not bad but not exceptional), a below average slap shot/one timer, average shot accuracy, average size, and above average vision/hockey sense. If he does take well to coaching and has a good work ethic/drive, that helps him become a more useful player. He does seem to be skating really hard out there, being phyical, pushing himself. I wonder how much of that is because he is only getting about 10-12 minutes of ice time and he is fresh? If for some reason he got 16-18 minutes of ice time, would he not be as effective, needing to 'pace' himself a bit more? Its Kinda the same with Clifton on defense. He is hitting everything, He has as many hits Power, Jokiharju, and Byram combined....and twice as many as Dahlin. But he has the least ice time. If Clifton had more ice time, would have have to back off the physical play out of self preservation? A few weeks ago we were talking a bit about Ruff, about having a new coach....and that there would likely be guys who simply play better under a new coach becasue they react well to his style...and other guys who seem to have no reason (other than a new coach) that don't react well and play worse. So, who would the guys be that just really play better under Ruff and who would take a step back. Its early, maybe too early to make a definitive judgement, but right now it looks like Krebs is reacting better than most thought, and Quinn is the one who is having a hard time with something.

Well, if his last name was "Smith" but he was a first overall pick a few years ago, being the same size he is, making the contact that he currently is and playing the exact same way, I think people would still be complaining. But if your point is, just looking at his play and not his height/pedigree/contract....then yeah, he would probably be complained about less. The physical part is something that can be hard to separate from his style simply because he is so tall. People expect him to be more physical. But if you look back over the last 20 years, there are plenty of really good D-men that weren't physical at all: -Duncan Keith, Cam Fowler, Chris Tanev, Roman Josi, Ryan Suter, Nick Leddy, Hampus Lindholm. You know what they all have in common? They really didn't hit anyone (under 2.5 hits per 60, just like Power) Many of them weren't beasts in front of the net clearing guys out. In their own end, they played well positionally, and vacuumed up loose pucks and got them out of the zone. Now Power, He needs to work a bit on his positioning in the D-zone (I STILL think he is better than many say, when he looks bad its often the D covering for the Forwards not picking up guys going to the net), and he goes get spun around in front of the net a bit....but he will get better at those things with positioning. I often say Tage is better without the puck than people give him credit for because of his size. With Tage, its like NLF zone defense. Him simply being there with his size and his reach prevent plays from happening. Power can/does have the same ability. Maybe he won't clear guys out of the front of the net, but he doesn't have to 'chase' as much, he can stay in position and with his reach get to a lot of loose pucks and deflect passes (maybe even prevent them from being made) simply with his size and reach. Some of that can't be taught though, some of it he is going to have to simply learn by 'doing'. He'll learn what he can and cannot do with is size and reach, and as time goes by, likely get better.

I am starting to lean toward him staring to score, and when he does it will come in bunches. Now, I don't mean he's going to put up back to back hat tricks, but I think we'll get a to a point where he has a multi-goal game, or at least score in 2 out of 4 games in a stretch. I mean, EVERYTHING else is there. He is taking the shots, good shots, getting the ice time. It has to turn into something positive eventually.

In golf there are swing coaches. Even the best golfers have their swings analyzed by coaches or computers and try to tweak things. We know when QB's break into the league, they have coaches giving them even the most subtle advice about small changes to their throwing motion. Does that happen in the NHL? If Cozens is so hot and cold with his shooting, do they have any way of analyzing his shots, in game or practice, and seeing something, ANYTHING that is so subtle but might make a change he can work on?

I'm normally one of the first to criticize Cozens and stand up for Power...But as well as Power played last game on the scoresheet...over the last 3 games he has been a bit questionable in the defensive zone. Cozens, on the other hand, who is normally a trainwreck away from the puck, has actually looked decent (at least there haven't been any super obvious, painful bad decisions made by him).

Bingo! Look at Cozens this year vs his 30+ goal season from 2 years ago..... Shots: 2.6 per game played 2 years ago. 3.4 shots per game played this year. More total attempts this year High Danger shots: 0.84 per game played 2 years ago. 1.13 per game played this year. Even his zone time, 41.3 vs 43.9 in the offensive zone in favor of this year vs his big year 2 seasons ago. He's getting more shots, he's getting better shots, hes in the offensive zone with puck possession more. No external factor like teammates, D-pairings, etc is likely to help him much as those numbers are all really good already. He needs to shoot better. Thats it. And per my post earlier with how 'streaky' he is, its likely to happen at SOME time....everyone just has to wait for it.