
mjd1001
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Everything posted by mjd1001
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Agreed. Power shows flashes of ability so when we see that we put that together with his pedigree and say... "That's it. He's here!" With a couple noticeable exceptions, most defensemen can take three to five years... To their mid-20s sometime, before they turn into the player who they're going to be. Patience. Nobody wants patience but with Power, it's going to take a few more years.
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Yes, it is. Cozens his second year here Getting minutes against top lines. Dahlin and Power (before Dahlin started playing good) getting 20 to 25 minutes per game. When they pick a guy....Krebs certainly had no right to be on any NHL roster this early as opposed to a minor league roster for the time that he's been here.... Would have been much better served with a journeyman 28-year-old veteran in his place cuz he simply wasn't ready either .They certainly do throw them in the deep end. You can pick players in Rochester that they haven't done this with... But certainly there are young guys that they play much earlier than other organizations would. Maybe it's bad coaching in Rochester, but most of the young guys, at least the forwards, show up in Buffalo and have no clue. Clue positionally where they should be anywhere outside of the offensive zone. That's what they should be learning in Rochester, playing two times a week and watching film. Not up here Learning on the fly while the big club is trying to win games.
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I mentioned this in another thread, but since this one's about him, I'll go into a little more detail of my opinion... Power played well for a rookie last year. But he wasn't as good as many on this board thought. Power is playing worse this year than last year. He's more tentative, he's making more mistakes, and last night I saw a couple of major mistakes he made where he kind of didn't hustle or put the effort into make up for them. It was just like... Oh well! I still think he's going to be good, very good, but it's going to take a couple of years. It usually does with many defensemen. Dahlin, well not playing quite as well as last year is probably still this team's best player but it took him a few years to get to that point and I honestly think Darlene has slightly more talent than Power so it might take power even longer. The way that this team wants to develop their players is to throw them into the deep end of the pool. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. Hindsight, it may have been better to bring in that veteran 29-year-old guy to take 20 minutes a game, and have power play 15 to 16 minutes That's not what they decided though..
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As far as the top four defenseman... I don't know how you were going to improve them substantially because these are the guys that you want going forward but there's a problem still. Dahlin since the beginning of the year, looks like he's playing a half step behind what he did last year, and the past week or two it's getting worse. It's not that he's not trying, but I think he's so frustrated that he just is.... Again. I don't want to say he doesn't care, but his play has taken another step back in the past couple weeks. Power? I thought he was good last year although overrated by a few people, and I still believe he's going to be very good and it's going to take a couple of years. But this year, there have been some games where I've watched him where he doesn't even look average. He looks bad. You don't want to get rid of him and you want him to develop but a veteran 29-year-old defenseman probably makes this team better taking his spot. At this point I just don't know what you do. You can make change for the sake of change, but is that actually going to make this team considerably better? It's a tough spot.
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I don't totally agree with that. He's a 4th liner. He scores decently for a 4th liner. Goals per 60 over the last 2 seasons, he is only .08 behind Mitts, and better than his linemates (Okposo, Krebs, and Jost). Is he putting in 20 a season? No, but when he plays he does score as much as many other 4th liners...but you get the added benefit of him being really the ONLY defensively responsible guy among the forwards on the entire team. He is at .57 goals per 60 this season, and he consistently is near .6 - .65. Thats about what you can expect from a decent 4th liner. And yes, to account for limited ice time and lack of PP usage, goals per 60 is probably the best way to figure out contribution from a 4th liner. Look at the best teams in the league...Boston's 10th-12th forwards average .57 goals per 60. Rangers? .31 goals per 60. Kings? .87 Vancouver? .59. Vegas? .56 Colorado? .34 Toronto? .50 For a 4th line, he is in line...maybe SLIGHTLY better in terms of production than most. Its not his job on that line to put up points..its keep the puck in the offensive zone, bang on the boards, and yes, when you can throw the puck to the net. Even if you look at other Metrics...shooting percentage...in a limited basis he is matching Cozens this season..and over a longer time frame, he is at 9.4% which is equal to or slightly better than most other teams are getting out of their 10th-12th forward. He skates hard, still has speed, is one of your better penalty killers (he isn't out of position much), and he DOES score at an equal to slightly better rate than a typical 4th liner around the league. I'm not sure why so many are in a rush to get rid of him.
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I think it isn't just one or two players, its a team wide/organization wide thing: -Okposo...hes a 'vet' but he makes plenty of mistakes in his own zone. Leaves open areas, doesn't know where to go. He never has played for a team in his career that excelled defensively. -Peterka, Benson and Krebs do a lot of 'stick waving' They could engage people more than they do. -Cozens. Probably the worst player at abandoning his man and leaving wide open areas of the ice for opposing players to walk in, just so he chases the puck. I know others love him, but He might be in the bottom 10% of players who know how to play in the defensive zone. -Mitts has gotten better, but he still does a lot of stick waving. Skinner likes to hang around the blue line and not go in too deep to help. Tuch and Thompson have good games and bad games. The only person I rarely see out of position, rarely leaving his side of the ice wide open to chase a puck is Girgensons. But a lot of people want him off this team for whatever reason, even though he might be the single one, the only sound forward on this team in his own end.
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Yeah, I put it as much on the players as I do coaching. Actually, the part that is coaching, I don't put so much on Granato (maybe he is a part of it) but on the staff in Rochester. Those guys down there play less games, they have more time to practice and watch film. It should be drilled into their heads over and over and over defensive zone positioning....who to pick up when the puck cycles, to never leave the slot wide open..etc. Coaching, that is an organizational thing that needs to happen in Buffalo but should have been done in Rochester because from what I can tell, the Amerks are pretty bad at it also. And as far as the style, I am 100% happy with them giving up more odd-man rushes in order to get more. This team needs to improve defensively when they are playing 'half court' defense, not worry so much about the fast breaks.
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I don't think so... But if they do that, how about the the northern city-based teams never having to play in Miami... Or Tampa... Or Jacksonville... In September or the first two weeks of October?
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GDT: Sabres @ Rangers - 7:30pm, Dec. 23, 2023, MSG/ESPN+📺 WBEN930 📻
mjd1001 replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
I'm responding to the fact that you said he was a lot worse after the injury than before...he wans't all that great before the injury. I NEVER said dropping his gloves was beneficial. Again, I just said he was playing bad both before AND after his injury. Its not like he was playing even close to how he was the year before. And how would I respond to that? I really wouldn't, i'm not disagreeing with you on most of your points, -
I realize I'm responding to an older post but here goes: There might be more opportunity on the big club than we think: Some of these guys could be ready next year, but some may need a couple years to be fully ready for the NHL. We might be looking for them to 'get a spot' in 1-3 years from now -Tuch is signed for 2 more years. He is the one guy up front i really, REALLY want them to re-sign, but at what cost? I hope he is back, I THINK he will be back, but in 2-3 years from now you never know. -Mitts. What are you paying him and what does he want. $6m? $7m? $8m? Again, I think he is LIKELY to be back, but as this team approaches the cap, you may find out that what he wants doesn't fit into your long term plans in terms of dollars spent. -Cozens. Signed long term. Young (should get better). But he is awful in his own end, he doesn't penalty Kill. He never has produced on the PP. He NEEDS to score 25-30+ goals per season to be of value to this team and other than last year..well, lets see if he can turn his game around. -Skinner, he's here for 3 more years, but that is just 3 years, and the last year or two of that, will he by then be seeing a diminished roll? Remember some of these young prospects may not be ready for 2-3 years. -Quinn, Peterka, Benson, and Krebs. Promising signs from most of them, but what if one (or a couple) hit a ceiling and never develop into more than a 10-15 goal guy. Id probably not want that in my top 6, so if that happens there could be more spots we aren't counting on now. So to summarize, you are going to seen need an entire 4th line, within 3 years an eventual Skinner replacement, POSSIBLY (hopefully not) but possibly a replacement for Mitts and/or Tuch in the next couple years...and Greenway is basically an interchangeable part. You hope you never ever get a trade demand or a long term/career altering injury, lets hope that doesn't happen here, but those things DO happen too.
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GDT: Sabres @ Rangers - 7:30pm, Dec. 23, 2023, MSG/ESPN+📺 WBEN930 📻
mjd1001 replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
I understand your bigger point, but up through that game Cozens has 7 points through 11 games, just over a 50 point pace. Since then he has 12 points in 22 games, about a 45 point pace. He hasn't been setting the world in fire recently, and honestly he wasn't even before he got hurt. -
There's a reason why Kane did not sign with the Sabres
mjd1001 replied to RETURNTOGLORY's topic in The Aud Club
He is off to a good start. Better offensively than I thought. Yet, while he has 10 points (5 goals) in 3 or so weeks there he has already been on the ice for 13 goals against, he's a minus player. Not that +/- is a perfect stat, but it isn't as useless as some people think, when he is on the ice the other team is better than his team. If he keeps scoring at his current rate and ends up with 30+ goals then it will probably be a good signing for Detroit. I just look at his all around game and think, that is the OPPOSITE of the type of player the Sabres need. There are some that love Kane, that think of him as a hometown guy and probably WOULD go to more games if he were hear. Others feel the opposite. To me, one of the biggest problems if not THE biggest problem with this team is how the forwards play in their own end. They need 2-3 vets who know how to do that in order to actually do it AND to set an example for the younger guys (for whatever that is worth). The absolute, definitive WORST player to add to this team now is a forward who is bad, or doesn't like playing in his own end. -
GDT: Sabres @ Rangers - 7:30pm, Dec. 23, 2023, MSG/ESPN+📺 WBEN930 📻
mjd1001 replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
This team has problems, most teams do. People pick what they want to complain about, some want a different coach so its his fault, some want the young guys up from Rochester, some want more veterans, some say the D is bad, some say its Adams fault for having bad goaltending.....but ultimately if the first line (and Cozens) do what you expect them to, this team would be fine. Obviously everything else could have been the exact same last night but if you got production from your first line, you win. They didn't. For all the problems this team has MOST of the change from last year is the missing production from Thompson and Cozens from last year. If they were doing what they did last year, your PP is a lot better and you have a lot more goals. -
Lots of reasons for production and lack of, but I haven't looked at the Sabres goals per 60 in a while. One of my favorite stats...how many goals per 60 minutes of play even strength...basically tells you who is making the most production out of the time they are given on the ice. Looked at the Sabres forwards (excluding anyone with only a handful of games): The top 5 forwards for the Sabres in goals per 60: 1. Peterka 2. Thompson 3. Skinner 4. Tuch 5. Benson The bottom 5 forwards in goals per 60 so far: Worst: Krebs 2nd worst: Girgensons 3rd worst: Jost 4th worst: Greenway 5th worst: Cozens Of course that leaves VO, Mitts, and Okposo in the middle Benson a bit surprising to me. Its not automatic that he gets more goals with more ice time, but I'm ready to give him that chance. His goals per 60 is 1.26. That would pretty much put him on the top 5 on this team any of the last few years. I'd want to see his ice time bumped up and see if he can continue at that pace.
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This is my go to thing right now. Many times I'll watch replays of the goals allowed, online its great to see replay from different angle and you can slow it down frame-by-frame. Often times I have posted what I saw on each goal allowed for some games, I started that last year about mid season and have done it for about half the games this year. What I see is the third...its the positioning in the D-zone that is killing them: -The D-men on this team are not great, but as I posted in other thread, they aren't as bad as we make them out to be. When you watch some replays, they look like they make awful decisions, but often times they are caught between what they SHOULD be doing and what they might have to change to doing because the forwards are the worst I have ever seen in their own D-zone. -They pretty much all make mistakes. Don't confuse Okposo's exerience with him knowing what he is doing back there. Cozens is probably the worst on the team, he abandons his man and leaves GAPING zone open in his own zone when he chases a puck into a spot a Sabres D-man is already there (and he does this over and over and over and never learns). Krebs and Peterka like to wave their stick at guys when even the slightest bit of contact would distrupt a play. Skinner doesn't make many mistakes in the D-zone but that is because he tries to spend as little time there as possible. The young guys kinda 'float' around like they don't know where they need to be. Thompson and Tuch are OK but make some mistakes. The only semi-regular that really doesn't make many mistakes in his own zone is Girgensons, but he's not on the ice all that much. Mitts has gotten better, I see less instances of him making mistakes in the D-zone than I did last year. Oh, and Olofsson? As much as he doesn't do much to disrupt plays, he is one of the lesser liabilities in his own zone among forwards. Cozens can chase pucks and dig in the corners and hit people, but when he leaves the spot he should be, he leaves an open zone for an opposing player to jump right in and take a wide open shot. VO doesn't do the 'hard work' but he occupies those prime zones by just existing there, often times not allowing an opposing player to get to those areas. He doesn't "Do much" but he doesn't make mistakes. Its like a DB playing Zone defense in football. you don't have to make a great breakup of a pass, you just have to 'be' where the QB wants to throw the ball, and by being there you prevent a completion from that part of the field. Again, the D-mean aren't all that bad, its just they have to cover for themselves AND have to be aware of what the forwards are leaving open.
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Sabres first, Bills during the intermissions of the Sabres game, Bills after the game ends. Of course, that all depends on the scores of both games. If they Sabres start losing big time, it'll likely be over to the Bills.
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I had a game on again about a week ago. Maybe I am overestimating the times it happened, but I know a LOT Of times after one team scored, the other team takes teh ball....dribbles it up court almost intentionally at a slow walking pace. That drives me crazy. NBA classic? the games I remember from a little kid were the opposite, fast breaks all the time, and a lot more full court press than I saw now.
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I used to love the NBA as a little kid. I was at the end of the Bird and Johnson era (remember it a little but not much) but on weekends if the NBA was on, I was watching it. Stopped for a while and a few years ago I tried it again. I'm trying to not be an 'old guy' here, but the game is WAY different and a lot worse. it seems to me that 90% of the time the ball is just being walked up the court really slow...then they take a little while to set up the half court game, attempt an isolation and the only play is really within a few seconds of the shot clock going off. Where is the pressure in the backcourt to make guys work a bit and tire them out? On the rare occasion I DO see that, it seems like a half hearted attempt. I'm not one of those guys that hates the NBA and hates basketball, because I used to love it...but when I watch a game now, it is just SO BORING! I think it is truly the sport that you can skip anything up until the last 5 mintutes of the game and just watch that and see what you need to...and even then half the games are over by 5 minutes left.
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If 'run and gun' is what they are good at, then go for it. It doesn't fix the PP woes though, and a large part of their scoring deficit is the PP. By this time last year they had 37 pp goals. this year they have 14. last year at this time they had 137 total goals. This year they have 103. So they are down 34 goals (basically a goal a game from last year). But the majority of those are PP goals. 23 of the 34 goal shortcoming is PP ( almost 70 percent). So yeah, I'll take the other 30 percent if it is there....but 'run and gun' does nothing to fix pp scoring, and the vast majority of this teams lack of scoring is due to the shortfall on the PP.
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GDT: Leafs @ Sabres - Thu. 7 pm ET, Dec 21, 2023, MSG-B 📺 WGR 📻
mjd1001 replied to Spoonman's topic in The Aud Club
1.) Fun game 2.) When this team is healthy they are a LOT better than when they were messed up early this year. 3.) After ANY big win in the past 2 seasons, I thought to myself "hey, they might be ready to turn this around". I'm just not there tonight. -
After the latest loss, what does accountability look like?
mjd1001 replied to Porous Five Hole's topic in The Aud Club
Agree on most of it. D-men being young, well, when you are basically saying/hoping that Dahline, Power, Samuelsson, and Jokiharju are going to be your top guys, there aren't many minutes left for anyone else. On the forwards though, you know I agree with that, the issue is, again, if you bring in a vet guy, who's spot does he take the place of? Plus the key is you need a vet who knows how to play a full game. Okposo....this was brough up in another thread but he has never been on a team that played a good 200 foot game. As much as he is a veteran leader, I don't think he knows how to play defensively from up front. When was the last time we had a forward on this team that was somewhat productive with EXPERIENCE on a team that played a good 200 foot game? -
100% + agree. THIS is the single biggest problem on this team. I know many have stopped replying to some of my comments because I'm not really saying much else, but the D-men are not the problem on this team, nor is goaltending (they both could be BETTER, but they aren't the problem). How the forwards pay in their own zone is the worst I have ever seen, worse than the Sabres tank teams, I think worse than some college teams I have watched. If I was a D-man on this team I'd probably look really bad too because at times I'd be frozen in space, looking like I don't know what I'm doing because I am just in shock at how little support I get from the front 3 or just how many times the forward leave gaping, wide open holds in the slot for opposint teams to just walk right into. There are countles replays of goals allowed this year (and last) where the D-men get blamed, but when you break them down, the forwards either aren't there at all, or the forwards are just skating in circles on their own...and the D-men have to make a choice....cover their own guy..or step up and cover the slot or faceoff circle (prime scoring spots) where the forwards SHOULD be but aren't. On THIS team, the D have to make a choice...if they guess and make the wrong choice...or they try to straddle both responsibilities but not do either one perfectly, it is THEM that look bad when its really the forwards hanging them out to dry. If the reason for the forwards being so bad at this is coaching, then by all means, bring someone in who will fix this ONE aspect of the team. But if its just the guys not 'getting it', then those forwards are the problem with the team (and Tage and Cozens lack of scoring). Its not the play of the D-men by themselves, not the goaltending, and not any other aspect of coaching other than the forwards being possibly the worst team ever at defending in their own zone and knowing where to be. Scoring on this team may be down, mostly due to injuries and Tage and Cozens drop in production, and effort MAY become a problem as some players just get frustrated, but the lack of 'effort' will simply be a sign that is caused by the frustration at the lack of results due to losing mostly because they have zero clue how to defend and cover open opponents in their own zone.
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Would Anyone Care If Any Current Player Was Traded?
mjd1001 replied to CallawaySabres's topic in The Aud Club
When he is healthy, Tuch is one of the best forecheckers in the league, certainly the best on the team. Its not all about 100% full speed ahead either...he can do that, but he seems to know how to position himself and take angles on the forecheck. To me Tuch gets a pass on any Defensive zone mistakes (honestly he doesn't make as many as most other forwards on this team do anyway) because he is the guy I want on the forecheck all the time. -
Would Anyone Care If Any Current Player Was Traded?
mjd1001 replied to CallawaySabres's topic in The Aud Club
I apparently will die on the hill disagreeing with this. I'm not sure where they "cozens is good" crowd gets that from, because he skates hard and will hit people? The reality is, he isn't producing offensively and he is a disaster, one of the worst in the league in his own zone. I have done the work, on goals allowed where he was on the ice many times, I'd even say most times, he vacates a zone, he leaves a player, he chases the puck into the corner when a D-man is already there and the spot he left is now wide open for an opposing player to step into. Seriously, I have posted many times after watching replays...and even posted screenshots showing where he is. He did that a lot last year, he is doing it a lot this year (dozens of times) and he just doesn't learn or change. He is bad, he is AWFUL, he is just like a dog that only knows how to chase the puck and can be easily fooled by any other team into getting out of position. He has to score 25-35 goals at least just to even out how bad he is defensively. The proof is there. Watch how he defends in his own zone on goals allowed. I (and others have pointed it out). NHL.com has replays of all the goals this team has allowed from numerous angles. Unless he changes, No way is he a good overall player, right now I can't see how he isn't anything but bad for this team most of this year. -
Let's talk about how bad Mattias Samuelsson has been
mjd1001 replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
He seems to have regressed from last year, I will agree with that. Is it that he is dealing with a nagging injury? If so, he might be a guy who is ALWAYS dealing with a nagging injury so that doesn't help. Does he/did he have the Dylan Cozens disease where we all thought he was better than he is because of one 'early career year'? Possibly. I still think this D-unit mostly suffers from how bad the forwards are in their own end. I'm not an expert on the fancy stats, but I think even they might be making the D look a little worse than they are many times, as the forwards are really non-existent in their own end and the D often have to make decisions on who to cover/who to leave open on the other team because the forwards aren't helping, and that might make the 'fancy stats' on them look even worse.