mjd1001

Right now, a 92 point pace would get you in the way things stand. Usually you need 94-96. Sabres have 33 games left. To get to 92 points they need to play at a 109 'point pace.' To get to 95, the need to play at a 117 'point pace.' To play at a 109 point pace, that means you are playing like a top 6 (6th best) team in the league. a 117 point pace? Only Boston and Vancouver have played at the pace for the season so far, so you'd have to play at a top 2 or 3 team in the league pace. Their current spot in the standings (how many teams to pass, how many points out), doesn't mean nothing, but the goal is the point total. Right now its 92, but usually ends up being about 95.

Ok, a huge break now between games. No one get injured on vacation. Tuch, Thompson, wrap yourself in bubble wrap over the next week. Any lingering injuries/issues, come back at full strength.

I really really dislike Cozens game in every way this year. BUT, he is valuable when he puts the puck in the net. Empty net goals to me are just as good/important as regular goals. If he can get going and start putting up some goals and points, I'll feel a lot better about him. I'm beginning to get some hope.

Seems to make sense. His 'top speed' is about the same as last year, but he is pushing himself to get to top speed MUCH less than last year.

Digging through the site a bit more, some interesting things: -Tuch seems to be the one who is peforming worse/slower this year compared to last year. His 'speed bursts' per game are WAY down. -Skinner seems to farther down the list of top speed on the team and also a very low number of 'speed burts' over 20 mph. Way less than I thought. One thing Skinner is good at, he is 7th in the entire league in shots attempted over the past 3 seasons combined from the front of the net (high danger) area. He is the ONE player on this team that is willing to go to the 'dirty' areas and take some punishment for prime scoring chances. -Zemgus has one of the highest top speeds on the team, AND one of the higher number of bursts over 20mph. When you figure in his ice time, I'd guess he leads the team (both last year and this year) in speed burts over 20mph with respect to his ice time. -Tage. Last year he had 210 shots then entire year from the high danger areas (right in front of the net, and between the faceoff dots). This year he only has 84. From those prime areas, he is taking 22% LESS shots per game this year than last year. -Cozens. Everything about his numbers are similar to last year. Skating speed, Speed bursts. Shots on goal location, almost every single metric you can measure is about the same EXCEPT shooting percentage. The worrying thing is his numbers even the year before are about the same. The ONLY thing that is different over the past few years is last years shooting percentage. His game offensively and skating is the same each year. Really hope last year's shooting percentage wasn't just an anomoly. For anyone interested, the highest top speeds recoreed this year of forwards: (League leaders: Owen Tippet 24.21, Braydon Point 24.15, Nate MacKinnon 24.05, McDavid 24.05,) Sabres Forwards: Tuch 22.99 MPH Zemgus 22.88 Thompson 22.64 Peterka 22.43 Cozens 22.36 Krebs 22.36 Mitts 22.16 Skinner 22.04 Robinson 21.92 Olofsson 21.76 Greenway 21.72 Quinn 21.71 Okposo 21.53 Tyson Jost 21.08 Rosen 21.05 Kulich 20.83 Benson 20.80 Highest skating speeds recorded all year by Defensemen: (league leaders: Mackenzie Weeger 23.61, Zach Werenski 23.50, Sam Girard 23.43, Miro Heiskanen 23.36) Samuelsson 22.43 Clifton 21.96 Jokiharju 21.70 Bryson 21.52 Dahlin 21.44 Ryan Johnson 21.35 Power 21.27 Eric Johnson 21.22

Actually, mostly been in retail my whole life, with a few times dabbling in economics (major in college). I just like numbers and statistics. Math was/is always my favorite subject..as long as it deals with numbers. When it comes to calculus and beyond, never interested.

They aren't skating as hard as the did last year....or Their 'faster' players are playing hurt...or They are playing a different style than last year....or. Some or all of the above

If you are going to make a change and go with an older/experienced guy, I'd have Ruff near the top of the list if he is available.

I don't know the names, but in concept: -a legit top tier defensemen who is a veteran. 26-30 years old. At least 400 games NHL experience. A guy who is great as a 2nd pair, but could even fill in on the first pair. -Pay whatever you need to in order to give Granato some top tier assistants. Lets cut down on the number of former players getting their first or 2nd job coaching/developing on the Sabres. I don't want/need a new head coach, but if I'm going to keep Granato he needs MUCH better staff to work with. -A goalie to compete with Levi for the backup role next year. -A 6'5" or taller forward who is will be a physical presense on the 4th line, but skilled/fast enough to be a good penalty killer....someone with that size and reach will take up a lot of space on the PK. -Re-sign Mitts and maybe, MAYBE get another legit NHL center so you can move Cozens to wing.

I looked at last year....below are the charts for last year. Main difference, while this year they are near the bottom for 'speed burts' over 18, 20, and 22 mph......LAST year they were above average compared to the rest of the league in speed bursts over 20, and near the TOP in terms of 'speed bursts' over 18. In terms of skating, last year they were an above average time, near the TOP of the league in how many speed bursts they had over 18, while they have turned into one of the, if not THE slowest playing team this year. Last year's data:

I didn't know about the NHL edge site, I stumbled upon it today. Lot of tracking data, I thought the Sabres were always one of the faster teams in the league, but not even close. They track individual players, teams, Top speed attained skating by forwards, by defensemen, and the total number of 'burts' each player/team has had over 18mph, over 20mph, and over 22mph. What does the data show? Sabres are, or at least they play VERY slow. Only 14 times all year have they had a player with over a 22mph speed (70% less than leage AVERAGE) . 716 times over 20 (23% less than average) . 3982 over 18mph (5.5% below league average) I didn't go through every team, but in the first chart below, the closer you are to the outer edge of the circle, the higher you rank compared to other teams, the closer you are to the center, the closer you are to worst in the league. Here is the link to the Sabres page on the site: https://edge.nhl.com/en/team/BUF

With Cozens, I am probably harder on him than I should be becasue I always watched him and wondered what people saw that was so great...until last year. Last year, he put in 30 goals, and I was like "finally, if that is what he is, he is going to be a very good player". But as I mentioned above, I think he needs to produce close to that level to be of much value. Power I was hesitant to list. I think he is OK for his age. I guess the only reason I put him up there is, at the end of last year and earlier this year...there were a lot of fans thinking he was a top D-man in the league. I think he is middle of the pack in terms of D-men in the league, over-rated by many Sabres fans even last year...but I'm not down on him. I just think he'll take time and 'patience' is the one thing very few around here want to hear.

I'm not sure if this thread will go anywhere, but Its someting we talk a lot amongst each other without specifically saying...so... Compared to everyone else you debate with on here, or the impression of the general fanbase, who do you like more on this roster or think is better? And who do you think gets too much credit and is worse than general perception? For me: Better: Girgeonsons. He's a 4th liner and not more than that, but I see a coupel posts a week from people saying they can't wait to get rid of him. But to me, he still is an above average skater/speed, 2nd best forchecker on the team, is good enough on the PK, rarely makes obvious mistakes in his own zone..and he scores at about the same rate as an average 4th liner around the league. Better: Jokiharju. Is he great? No, but I think his 'defensive zone mistakes' are often where he looks bad trying to cover for a forward who has no idea what he is doing. Again, not a top pair guy, but I think he has well-rounded talent and should still get better as he gains more experience (he still is only 24) Worse: Krebs. I don't see anything in his game I like. His offense to me looks accidental. He is VERY slow on the backcheck and many times I have seen him coasting back when one more step of effort could have prevented a goal against. Hes not big, he doesn't win many loose puck battles. Yes, he IS still young and some forwards come into their own in their mid 20's, but I don't see much from him at all that I like Worse: Cozens. As a Center, he is worse than a train wreck in his own zone. He NEEDs to produce 25-30 goals to make up for how bad he is in his own zone, and he doesn't sem to be getting better back there. He had a 30 goal breakout year he got paid for, but EVERY other year (including this year) seems to show that 'breakout year' was really a 'career year'. At least as a Center (where this team insists on playing him) he seems to have below average 'hockey sense' in the offensive zone, and ZERO hockey sense in the defensive zone. I wish every day they move him to wing because he is a bad center. BAD. Worse: Power. For now. I hope/think he will get better, so I don't feel as bad about him as Cozens and Krebs, but he is very tenative when he seems to have the talent not to be. He is confused in his own zone (I THINK that will get better with experience). Again, I think he will get better but, in terms of how good he is now, I think many fans were looking at him throgh rose colored glasses last year, he's going to need more time.

There is no doubt that was intentionally, late, not needed...etc. In a perfect world that should be 20+ games. Get THIS stuff out of the game, and you might be able to justfiy other physical play.

I actually worked that out a while ago mathematically a while ago... The odds of winning a stanley cup are pretty simple. 32 teams in the leage, 14 times the cup is awarded. Simple odds are 43.7% a team will win a cup in a 14 year period. 1 in 2.28. Odds of missing the playoffs 14 years in a row? Simple odds are .0045%. Or 1 in about 22,000. A lot of things can determine your odds for making/missing the playoffs. For example, the Bills drought...much of it was contributed to by Brady being in the division, but in Hockey its different. Statistically, you can say you have a 50% chance of making or missing the playoffs in a given year. For any time, after 2 years, the 'odds' are 25% you miss both years, 25% you make it both years, and 50% chance you miss one year and make it the next...and so on and so on. Now, with expansion, the odds change slightly. It hasn't always been EXACTLY 50%, sometime you had a BETTER chance (beginning of the drought, 8 of 15 teams in the conference made the playoffs, so your odds to make it were even better than they are now. So, what are the pure statistical odds that any hockey team would take a 12 year period and not make the playoffs even once? 0.018% chance. Or, in other words, a 1 in 5,531 chance that, over the last 12 years, any team in the Sabres division/conference would not make the playoffs one time. If you 'simulated' an average team through 12 seasons, 5,531 times, only ONE of those times, on average, would a team miss 12 years in a row. If the Sabres miss this year, with half the conference making the playoffs again, the odds of missing 13 years in a row would be 1 in 11,062. Chances of missing 14 years in a row? 1 in about 22,000. Or 0.0045% If you could find a sportsbook to give you odds that ANY team, starting today, would miss the playoffs for the next 14 years.....you would likely win about $2 million dollars on a $100 bet. So yes, they made the decision to tank, but again, those are the numbers for ANY team with a few years of 8 out of 15 teams making the playoffs and most other years 8 or 16 making it. Hockey Heaven? The sole reason for them existing is to win the Stanley cup? You would think that even if you TRIED to be that bad it would be hard to do so. That can't be all bad luck..or it can't be a new owner 'learning curve', there has to be a whole lot of ineptitude in there.

I agree with you on a lot of things, the above included. I really think with Cozens, I don't know....is it that he doesn't know where to be? or just he can't control his urge to chase the puck. Its like when little kids start to play hockey at a very young age, you TELL them where they should be, but put the skates on and it doesn't matter, they all just chase the puck, ignoring what they SHOULD be doing. With Cozens, I see the same thing. There are times I swear the team is set up in their own zone, Cozens SHOULD be covering the slot, but then he just leaves to chase a puck he can't get to, and the spot he vacates an opposing player steps into and there is a scoring chance. Skinner on the other hand, I think he just doesn't want to play defense. I watched a replay a couple weeks ago where a goal was scored against the Sabres, and as the puck came from the neutral zone to the defensive zone, Skinner was on his way back and he literally slammed on the brakes, he STOPPED at the blue line and didn't enter the zone. Was he supposed to do that? Meaning was the 'plan' to have 4 guys in the D-zone and he was supposed to be there waiting for a breakout pass? Maybe. Its just that when you watch the games, Skinner isn't often noticable in the D-zone. 2 Different issues with both of those players. Honestly, I think Cozens does more harm in the defensive zone. There hare been discussions lately saying it might be part of the 'system', that the Sabres in their own zone aren't supposed to play 'zone' defense. Still, even if that is true, Cozens is VERY noticable at doing things that no one else does in the D-zone. He is Awful. Move Cozens to wing please where him chasing the puck along the boards in the defensive zone is where he SHOULD be, he hurts this team when he vacates the slot and leaves it wide open.

This offseason was nothing compared to losing Briere and Drury from that mid 2000's Sabres team. Not even close to as bad. And that without even putting any thought to any other teams.

I'd go with a much different approach, I certainly would not bring in another young, inexperienced d-man. How to fix this team without totally blowing it up? -Bring in a 27-30 year old LEGIT 1st or 2nd pair D-man. Give up a high draft pick and prospect it you must. Doesn't need to be a tough guy, doesn't have to score a lot. Just someone you can rely on when the forwards make their usual mistakes in their own end. -Move Cozens to wing. Maybe he'll get less of the scoring chances that he wants/needs, but the rest of his play is better suited to wing. -Clean out most of the assistant coaching staff and develpment staff and bring in EXPERIENCED guys, overpay them if you must. -Put in a system where forwards play positionally in their own end, and when they fail to do so, sit them for a period. -Start Levi as many games in Rochester as possible. Next year, the goal is UPL as the starter, Levi as the backup up here but Levi should be getting playing time now. -Your 4th line should be 3 guys who excel on the PK. Why? do whatever you need to keep Cozens and Thompson (and Tuch) for that matter off the PK. You need those guys for goals, don't eat up their minutes on PK or have them standing in the way of shots that can lead to further injuries. -Pray for better injury luck. Is there more you can do? probably, but that is the list of the things I can think of that are the easiest that would have the greatest impact on this team.

Exactly. One of the biggest mistakes people make is taking a small sample size and then thinking it means more than it does... The difference often times between a good player and a bad one...a great team and average team....is not how they look when they are at the top of their game.....but instead how OFTEN they can play close to the top of their game. Its encouraging to see that line play well because you know they 'have it in them', but before I believe they are a 'good' line again I need to see it several games in a row.

Maybe it is a coaching issue when you break it all down (coaches are responsible for the players actions) but to me it is more of a player issue for this reason...the breakdowns in the D-zone....Cozens, Okposo, and Benson probably account for almost half of them from what I can see on replays of goals allowed. While, when I watch the games myself, Girgensons, USUALLY Greenway and Mitts, and Thompson do not have anywhere near the same kind of breakdowns, hardly any that I see. How are some players just not able to hold their position on the ice, seeming breaking away and doing their 'own thing' causing goals against? While others hardly ever do that? The Cozens thing has me baffled. His ice time was down a bit this year so maybe the coaches are starting to realize he has problems this way, but at the same point, they keep on putting him out there on the PK and keep him at center. The 'can't stop chasing the puck issues to the boards" might actually be a STRENGTH of his game if his defensive assignment was that of a winger, but there must be something else coaching-wise going on under the surface that they know that I (we) don't.

For the second point you make, because mistakes of course are made where your goalie makes a save, but by focusing on goals allowed, we can look at where mistakes are likely made and see the result of them. Its just more efficient than spending 3 hours breaking down film is the best way to put it. As far as the first point who is freelancing? 2 parts to that question. Cozens is the #1 offender. There are times where the 5 man unit is in their own zone and everything is going pretty well, and then for ZERO reason he takes off and chases a puck into the corner, the puck comes back out to where he was supposed to be and there is your goal against. The best way I can describe it is he is like a Dog chasing a squirell, or a cat chasing string...he just can't control himself. Others make that mistake too (Okposo surprisingly a lot, and as much as everyone loves Benson, he can be a liability in his own zone this way) but by far Cozens has done it dozens of times in the past year leading to goals against. Who doesn't do it much? Normally Greenway. He had a bad game last night but he is pretty good as maintaining is D-zone coverage usually. Also Thompson and Girgensons. They both often look like they aren't doing a lot in the defensive zone but are holding position where they should be. A side not, while Girgensons is someone many think is close to useless or want to get rid of, he is one of the players on this team that USUALLY plays positionally well in his own end and is probabaly the 2nd best forechecker on this team next to Tuch. The 2nd part of that isn't 'freelancing', but just that when coming back into the defensive zone, the forwards seem to frequently all go to the side of the ice the puck is on. If the puck is on the far side, both the far side winger and the center are on the far boards, and the 'near side' winger even is near center ice, leaving the entire other side of the ice open (see the Kopitar goal last night for a great example). This happens a LOT! when watching the game I notice this even when goals aren't scored against. In some games numerous prime scoring chances against are allow simply because the forwards ALL go to the side of the ice the puck is on, while someone from the other team just slips into the open side of the ice very easily.

It could be, maybe your correct..... But the problem I see is is, the benefit of that would be to force turnovers, it rarely happens. When you watch the Sabres goals scored, very few of them start with 'tilting' your forwards toward the puck holder in your own side of the ice, causing a turnover and then taking it the other way. Plus, the screenshot I showed is just a symptom/example where you can see everyone doing it. Over the past year, many, MANY goals the sabres allowed were caused by one forward making that mistake. Some of the guys play the right 'zone' and one chases the puck....and the goal is allowed...with no one set up to take advantage of a turnover if presented. Its almost like in football terms, your best defense in most situations is a zone defense, yet the Sabres fowards in their own end prefer to play man-to-man...but they don't even line up on the right guy, they just cover whoever they want. Or worse, the coach calls a zone coverage, and one guy just decides....I want to play man to man so I'm going to chase someone and leave my zone open. It just happens so much with this team/forward group. I think the system is flawed, but your point about them making bad decisions seems like it happens also. Whether the system is flawed, or the players aren't good enough to play it...either way it seems a change should be made.

I didn't watch the whole game last night, saw some of it, rewatched the highlights. I like to take a look at the goals allowed and see what went wrong. Today, I'm not spending much time on it, it is the SAME THING over and over. The forwards do not know how to position themself in the defensive end. The ENTIRE team will look at and follow the puck instead of being where they should be. They do not hold the box in the PK. It is the same thing, game after game after game after game that allows goals scored against. 1st goal allowed: Mitts, Greenway, and I have no idea who the other forward was. Kopitar comes in on the near wing, no one picks him up. He scores. Look at the screenshot below. 4 Sabres players in the D-zone. No one at all on the entire near side of the ice except Kopitar. ALL FOUR sabres players looking at the puck, no one with any awareness to the WIDE OPEN half of the ice Kopitar is on. Easy pass to him, easy shot, easy goal.D-men, including Bryson, were OK, Forwards, its the SAME THING. (see Screenshot below) 2nd goal allowed: Both Tuch and Greenway chase the puck near the blue line. I guess BOTH of them could justify going after the puck from where they were, but they have to know that BOTH of them can't. They both chase the puck take themselves both out of the play, Puck comes to Kempe with NO ONE around him where he has all day to skate in, set up the shot, look for the opening, easy goal. The Sabres D-men were tied up with other Kings players down low, again I don't blame them. It was the Forward chasing the puck AGAIN that caused this. 3rd goal: I say this game after game on the PK. When the Sabres hold the box on the PK, they do well. The other team controls the puck sure, but they simply pass it around the perimiter and waste time and then eventually take a shot the goalie clearly sees and stops. WHEN the Sabres allow a goal it is almost always then they start chasing and the PK box collapses (lately a lot with Cozens on the ice). So guess what happened here? Well, this time it was Greenway and Cozens. They almost kill the entire penalty, but right at the end, the guy has the puck on the blue line on the near side (Greenway's side). He is drifting toward the far side (Cozens side). Greenway starts to follow him to the other side, leaving the near boards WIDE open. I put this more on Greenway, but Cozens could have stepped up a bit so Greenway had no where to go. Anyway, once Greenway is out of position, the puck gets moved to the area he vacated, the entire Sabres team has no clue what to do, collapses down low into a mass of humanity and the goal is scored. Greenway had an awful game defensively. The entire forward group is bad in their own zone. The Defensemen again, not great but not as bad as many think. They appear to have won this game due to some good quick wrist shots and suspect goaltending by the opposition. The forwards on this team have their eyes and their bodies follow the puck like a magnet. This is playoff team if you get a fraction of the missing scoring from Cozens and Tuch back, and if the Forwards can learn to play positionally in their own zone, and not just chase the puck like a pee-wee team full of 6 year olds does. See below picture. Every single player is looking at the puck. Does anyone know there is an entire other side of the ice? Anyone care to even glance over and look to not hang their goalie out to dry? guess not.

I agree with you here. The top 9 forwards LOOKED like they could be set coming into the year, but apparently they are not. Even if they were playing as well as last year, rosters are fluid, guys have good and bad years. Skinner is who he is now..but at some point with his age his scoring will fall off, and that leaves you with nothing. He's not there yet, but it could come in 2 years or in 2 weeks. Cozens, you would be 'set' if he was a 30+ goal guy like last year, but with each passing day it looks like he is more of a 15 goal guy than a 300 goal guy. Tuch, he's not at Samuelsson level of always being hurt, but he just might be a guy that will hardly give you a full 80 games at full strength. We have hopes for Peterka and Quinn and Benson, but the NEED to keep developing and get better. If that development stops (it shouldn't but it might) you aren't set there either. If you go by the theory that Pegula is reluctant to pay another head coach to sit at home, and Adams still wants Granato, how about assistant coach changes? Even without those 2 factors, I would pull Granato in and tell him, you NEED to make changes to the staff right now (and of course make sure you let him pick someone legit, don't force one of your development coaches on him) and go from there.

Hope they win hope they score a lot of goals. Zero chance I'm staying up late to watch THIS team though. If they play a great game, I'll watch the recap tomorrow.