TrueBlueGED

I would like this, but in the interest of discussion: given how F'd up the locker room was, is there some value in a totally clean break? I don't feel strongly one way or the other, I just know I don't want any lingering stink from the last two years!

Interesting thought experiment--what would people hate more: Kane-Tanev, or Reinhart-Tanev?

I still expect a rather low-key defensive addition that will excite few, but be quietly effective when coupled with a more aggressive play style. I think Botterill is smart enough to recognize the strength of this team is the forward group, and savvy enough to recognize the value in a forward-defenseman swap isn't going to morph us into Nashville or Anaheim. Put differently, I'd be surprised if we saw the equivalent of the Hall-Larsson trade. We don't have Crosby or Malkin, of course, but sans Letang, that blue line in Pittsburgh is the envy of nobody...but it worked due to forwards and style of play. I also expect they're going to try to rehabilitate Bogosian, and think it's somewhat likely they believe he can at least be serviceable, with pushing the Dmen to jump into the play more.

I didn't mean to imply people want to trade him for this reason, just that I think it plays into the general lack of enthusiasm for his game. I think both Kane and Reinhart have lower trade value than we'd like, and fans of either will be bitterly disappointed by the return should they be moved.

Naturally. I also think there's a lot of buyer's remorse and #becausebuffalo because Draisaitl had a great year and looked like a total stud in the playoffs. I keep going back to comparisons with players who have a similar skill set, and their development track: guys who don't have a standout physical trait, but rely on hockey sense and passing to make their impact. Sam had more points as a rookie than Henrik Sedin did in any of his first four seasons. O'Reilly didn't score more than 26 points until his 3rd season. Scheifele didn't break the 50 point barrier until his 3rd season. Neither did Joe freaking Thornton. And so on.

He was smoldering poop in November because he came back from the injury too soon and couldn't play. He was on fire starting in December. Oh, I know...like I said, I'm really bad with dates. I legitimately have to do the math to remember what year my parents were born :lol: I don't think we should ignore any stretch where he played, especially when we're dealing with a sample that could easily be a blip rather than a trend, but I do think context is important to consider. As Liger has said, and I think you agree, I don't think moving Sam to center is a switch to flip where he'll instantly fulfill his draft promise--there's learning to be done. I also think who he is playing with is really important. We all know that Sam isn't the most fleet of foot out there (another contributor to the learning curve at center, IMO), so he needs speed on his wings that he can distribute to. He was dominant in the WJC because Domi and Duclair could skate like the wind, and maximized what Samson did well. I wouldn't expect Samson to thrive at center between, say, Foligno and Gionta. His best stretch came with Kane on one side, and at least part of it with Bailey on the other. Yes, it's a tiny sample, but the stats matched the eye test which matched the scouting and his junior career, which is why some of us are more comfortable projecting that performance out. The fact we were realistically dead in the water with respect to the playoffs for the entire season (last year too, really), and Samson only got such limited time at center, is part of my disdain for Bylsma. Wouldn't it be nice if we had 60 games to talk about, rather than 15? Yea, for sure. I'm looking at you, Marcus Foligno, shooting 40% in your first stretch of NHL games while scoring off your butt!

I'm not backing off the point: you have the wrong window. In fact, I think we both have the wrong window. Dudacek is right that Sams' center stretch came between Bailey and Kane, but Bailey wasn't a regular in the lineup until the end of December. Have I mentioned recently I'm terrible with dates? :lol: We need Flagg. I know he knows this. FLAGG STOP BEING A RESPONSIBLE PERSON AND HELP US ON AN INTERNET FORUM!!!

Yes, but when we're already talking about a sample of games that's less than a quarter of the season, I think cutting down the sample further might actually impede our ability to assess this. I think so too. Hell, the stretch of games I'm referring to convinced Freeman, who has always come off (to me) as very lukewarm on Sam in general, that Sam's a center.

Maybe not. Your post mentioned points, and I brought up goals. Perhaps that's the issue? Edit: I got my numbers from https://puckalytics.com/#/ I wasn't talking about only even strength points, I was looking at total points. Need Flagg here, he probably has the exact date range.

I do not, but I know others here will corroborate. It was early-ish in the season when Eichel was out and O'Reilly was hobbled/out. It's the combination of SV% and SH% when a player (or team) is on the ice. Over time it regresses hard towards 100. Of course some teams have true talent to be at like 102 sustained, and others are poop and 96 or whatever, but it's just a nice tool to spot outliers due for regression when taking into account the players/team. When looking at Jack and Sam, I don't think they're a 98 (see: below average) tandem.

While I think the magic Sam and Jack had together certainly dried up relative to the way it started, and Bylsma should have split them up, I don't think this is entirely fair. Eichel's GF/60 went up from 2.22 to 2.41 with Reinhart, his CF/60 went up from 50.86 to 58.42, CA/60 down from 64.58 to 58.42, for a net increase in CF% from 44 to 50. Edit: That was with a PDO together of 98.1, while their PDO apart was 100.5 for Jack and 100.3 for Sam...so you'd expect their raw point totals together to uptick over time. Edit 2: upon further review, it appears the PDO drop together was due to SV%, not SH%. So you'd expect their GF% to get better, but not total goals/point. My bad for the hasty work.

The opposite: he excelled. He had like 13 points in 14 games and passed the eye test better than at any point. And I don't think waiting 2-3 years to move him to center is a viable plan. He'd be a 4th-5th year pro...is there any precedent for a winger to center position change that far into a career? Secondly, whenever the swap happens, there are going to be growing pains. In 2-3 years when we're trying to win Cups, do we really want a core player going through those growing pains?

I propose Reinhart to 3C, with a relatively equal distribution of minutes for the top three lines. Girgs to wing, Larsson at 4C. O'Reilly to wing could work, but I'm interested in creating havoc for the other team by forcing them to try to match up against three threatening lines, which I don't think many teams can do.

The degree to which Sam Reinhart is underappreciated will forever make me sad, but it's completely unsurprising. Little of what he does pops off the ice: his shot is forgettable, he doesn't skate like the wind, he doesn't lay people out, and he doesn't dangle through defenders. Yet some how, some way, he ends up as one of our best 3 forwards in every major statistical category and makes every player he plays with put up better numbers. While playing out of position.

I like Drouin a lot, but to this point he's been more flash than substance. Definitely wouldn't be comfortable with that contract for him, which methinks is part of why Yzerman dealt him. I also trust Yzerman a lot more than Bergevin.

Much like Botterill's intro presser, it just struck me as a guy who wasn't intimately familiar with the roster rattling off some names he knew. I doubt he has much of any idea of the intrscacies of what has gone on the past couple years here under Bylsma.

I mean, how are we going to objectively do this? Consider yourself no longer welcome in the Bunker.

Re: a potential Bogo revelation: no. I think Housley will allow Bogo to play to his strengths, but no coaching can change his Canadian penny hockey sense and inevitable 20 game injury. He'll be better, but thinking he'll suddenly be a legit top-4 on a good team is bordering on delusional.

Agreed.

Oh god. Please no. I'd rather have Tocchet run a new gambling ring while coaching.

I was thinking it sets them up nicely to move Johnson for a Dman, assuming Yzerman sees Galchenyuk as a center. Agreed.

Yea, I'm not a fan. At all. How many of these kids give a rat's backside about the Bills, Buffalo, or #onebuffalo? As practice jerseys I wouldn't care at all. But game jerseys? Yuck.

He didn't play well, and much like this year's Avs, it was the worst team in hockey. If Nikita Zadorov is penciled in anywhere in your top-4, you're not even a bubble playoff team.

If Zadorov is on your top pair, you're a terrible hockey team. He was barely getting 2nd pair minutes on the worst team in hockey.

My guess is they want to free up money to throw at Shattenkirk.