Randall Flagg

Almost 700 of his 900+ ES minutes were with our two best offensive players last season, And yet their heat maps (and the shot/goal splits underlying them) were still markedly more active than his because in their time without him they generate a ludicrous amount of chances. Whereas most of his ice time is with them and it's the coldest and most desolate demonstration of high-percentage-shooting areas on the team, only excluding Nolan and Josefson, and Larsson. He does have them beat, and literally the only reason is because of Jack&ROR. His numbers away from those guys literally join the abominable depth. There's an underlying reason for the heady veteran with gritty shoulders having this happen. What do you propose it is? My proposition has been the thing I've noticed since his first game here, being amplified by external factors, that I've already annoyed everyone typing out so many times, and I have a hard time picturing the traces of these external factors just poofing away in the offseason bliss

Yes. The season after he almost died is the one I'm going to go on, because in my view th ehockey player he was in March is a lot more likely to be what he resembles from here on out than the one before all that stuff when he was still young and spry. When being the guy to give the puck to the generators of our power play got him a lot of assists and 6 power play goals in 76 games. But you haven't addressed the actual focal point - in your view, what are the things Kyle did to get those points? Because in the hockey I watched, it was the times he successfully got the puck to the guy next to him, ROR and Risto, where from there things happened with Jack or Sam (or Risto/ROR). His points came when he didn't screw up getting the puck to the most important pieces of the power play. The thing that I desperately want to make video of, and just don't have time, is that he's not actually good at this to the degree that you'd want on a power play, because of what has been typed out above, the combination of quick-twitch decision making and precise execution required when pressed on the power play and only one semi-good passing option. ROR was excellent at it when Jack-focus pushed the puck over to him and the defense responded. That's why I mentioned "picturing" him. Close your eyes and you see him doing the perfectly angled board pass after sucking in the forward just far enough to give Risto a second seam in case Jack is covered. If the play got to the boards, HE was the one that came out with the puck on his stick, ready to make a play. Kyle was lucky that this crazy mofo played on his side of the ice. if he was below Jack instead, things would have been a lot worse. He was really helped out with ROR there because he was often taken to the boards in sub-optimal conditions, teams know he doesn't have the quick-twitch hands anymore. And he lost a lot of pucks because of it anyway. So now that ROR is gone, our PP isn't going to run the same. And we have guys I'd much rather see out there than the guy that wasn't a creator, a guy whose reputation will continue to supersede what he actually brings, just like how I outlined this summer that we need to focus on not doing if we ever want to be a decent team again He's one of the worst at it on the team. His hands are bloody awful. It's why everything goes cold in the offensive zone in his ice time. The puck can't get to where it needs to go enough.

We're gonna have 6 co-alternate-captains

UPDATE: I counted the wrong column, he wasn't 7th on the team in power play goals. I retract none of the substance of my argument though.

Extending the stat base to seasons before his massive head and neck thing which very well could have started the end of his career doesn't do much either. He's a different player now, and if he can rebound to what he was before, the beginning of tangible proof of it happening hasn't appeared yet and so I can't and won't assume it will.

Production came because of what happens when he moves the puck along, which he just plain doesn't do well enough. Okposo is an anchor by any conceivable hockey definition. From the most basic and hated +/- hockey stat, to what he does to the production, shot shares, heat maps, and literally everything else that measures anything with any accuracy. They fall apart for players he plays with and rebound when he's gone. It just happens. His secondary PP assists, which I haven't seen a counter that show regularly generate anything, rather than just passing to a guy who passes to the guys who do, are unconvincing, as was his 7th place finish among Sabres in PPG last year. That's not strong enough of a case for me to have any interest in keeping a set of stone hands (and a great person) out there on PP1. There's nothing in the past that can change my mind on this, we'll need to see it actually change this coming month.

So phrasing it a different way, Okposo worked on a PP unit we removed one of three key pieces from, and by worked, I mean was not an integral part of and didn't screw things up too much relative to what could happen, and his shortcomings make me want to keep him from a PP that is now going to be fundamentally different, while we figure out what makes that one click, since we decided to go in a different direction and remove one of the fundamental parts of it. And I want to keep him from it because it needs to funnel at least through Eichel, and likely with Dahlin. And since teams know that and will lean towards Eich's side, that will open space on the other side, which means the puck will actually end up there a lot, and I think OK is at his weakest when he's got the puck and a fast, tough decision to make, and precise execution of the proper decision. Which is what we need over there. ROR being on the right, how many times do you remember him wheeling out of a tough spot and executing tough passes through legs and off the boards to use the Risto-pivot and bring things back to Jack? It's all I picture when I picture him on the PP. Without that on the right side, I think that would be a dead zone.

That isn't to say it isn't useless to have corsi stat available for pairings. We should collect all the stats we possibly can like that to get as much information as we can in as many ways as we can. But when it comes to things like Matt Tennyson, who, I stress, is so, so, so bad,

Corsi starts doing its predictive stuff at much-larger-minute sample sizes than that. If we're stuck with such limited data, we may as well use the +/- that we would prefer corsi and stuff to improve on. Or even better, we should ignore what the stats say and just watch them. From this starting point then, the thing is, Beaulieu is just bad. So is Tennyson. Nelson can sometimes not be so bad, but is usually bad. But Tennyson is the worst, by far. And when you have to ice any of them, you have problems, for the most part, but doubly so for Tennyson. And thus they should never play Tennyson. I'd totes to a video project on this but it's in-semester nao and that's not gonna happen "The data aligning with Housley's decisions" isn't really a thing for me for small-sample-corsi - Corsi improves goal-based metrics to still-bad-predictive results, so when corsi gets leaned on for bad hockey decisions, it's hard to just say "well he's doing what the stat sheet says." Well, I can find some ludicrous things to do that are backed by a ~.3 r^2 value myself, and it probably wouldn't be a good thing if I were to actually do them. The Corsi stat sheet is why Moulson stuck around for 15 games last year. Phil can't just use a list of corsi to make his decisions, because they don't really provide a nuanced description of anything, even if they improve on goal-based metrics, which also shouldn't be used as doctrine. If he did that and followed just that data, that would display, IMO, a huge unawareness of the context and application aspect of sports analytics, and I would huck all the rocks at him that I can.

I'd argue this board looks too easily at point totals and doesn't actually watch what happens out there. Matt Moulson was the leading goal scorer on the best PP in the league in 16-17, and he shouldn't have been anywhere near the team or the first unit. Kyle was seventh on the team in power play goals last year, and find a clip where his pass was the key part of the assist, the generator of the play, and not giving Risto or ROR the puck to create the actual main scoring play, versus what you could put together for the other guys. The power play was what it was because of ROR and Jack, with Risto effectively moving the puck from one to the other, and Sam out front. Kyle got a lot of assists because of that, and could occasionally bury a nice wrister, but he was not a cog, and we don't have ROR on that side anymore to help. It must have been noticed by everyone now, what happens when Kyle is over there and has to do something quick when the defending forward pressures him. His success rate in that situation is far lower than desirable WITH Ryan's ability to bail him out on occasion. It actively disrupts things and I don't see the sole plus, his decent shot, being worth it. It's a no from me

I did two teams tonight because I'm busy tomorrow - exam in the AM and my parents showing up for a visit in the afternoon. This is every team, so if anybody even read this thread, you're all ready for the start of the season! Puck drops tomorrow night!

Eichel, Reinhart, Risto, Dahlin. Let Mitts and Skinner fight for the last spot. Tage keeps the puck away from the other guys too much, usually for ill-advised shots. Unless he changes that when he isn't the oldest player on the ice. KO still folds under pressure, so while his shot is useful on the second unit, I don't want him out there messing with the flow of the first unit, which almost always seems to happen.

Winnipeg Jets Record last season: 52-20-10, 114 points, 2nd in the Central Playoffs: Lost in WCF to Vegas Coach: Paul Maurice GM: Kevin Cheveldayoff Captain: Blake Wheeler GF: 273 (2nd) GA: 216 (5th) PP: 23.4% (5th) PK: 81.8% (7th) Top 5G: 1.) Patrik Laine (44) 2.) Kyle Connor (31) 3.) Nikolaj Ehlers (29) 4.) Mark Scheifele (23 in 60 games) 5.) Blake Wheeler (23) Top 5A: 1.) Blake Wheeler (68) 2.) Mark Scheifele (37) 3.) Dustin Byfuglien (37) 4.) Nikolaj Ehlers (31) 5.) Tyler Myers (30) Top 5 PTS: 1.) Blake Wheeler (91) 2.) Patrik Laine (70) 3.) Mark Scheifele (60 in 60 games) 4.) Nikolaj Ehlers (60) 5.) Kyle Connor (57) Key Additions: Laurent Brossoit (G) Key Losses: Paul Stastny (C), Joel Armia (RW), Toby Enstrom (D), Shawn Matthias (LW), Matt Hendricks (LW) Projected Lineup: Connor - Scheifele - Wheeler Laine - Little - Ehlers Petan - Roslovic - Perreault Lowry - Copp - Tanev Morrissey - Trouba Chiarot - Byfuglien Kulikov - Myers Hellebuyck Brossoit Top Prospects we might/might not see 1.) Jack Roslovic, C, 1st round 2015 2.) Kristian Vesalainen, LW, 1st round 2017 3.) Dylan Samberg, D, 2nd round 2017 4.) Brendan Lemieux, LW, trade with Buff 5.) Tucker Poolman, D, late 2013 My thoughts I'm quite high on the Jets. Their vets are awesome - Wheeler is an awesome leader and great first-liner, Little is a great leader and a good 2nd liner, Perreault is the perfect 3rd liner. Buff can still play. Nobody is over the hill yet. Their older youngsters, Scheifele and Trouba, are everything you'd want in a C/D that age. Finally, their kids are freaking awesome. Look at their goal scoring list, everyone but Wheeler is a baby. Morrissey will be their best defenseman sooner than later, and that fourth line is the best energy-fourth-line-with-skill in the league. Watch out for Jack Roslovic too. Even if Trouba forces his way out, I wouldn't be phased long-term. These guys are cup contenders now and going forward.

Washington Capitals Record last season: 49-26-7, 105 pts, 1st in the Metro Playoffs: STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS Coach: Todd Reirden GM: Brian MacLellan Captain: The Great 8 GF: 256 (9th) GA: 238 (16th) PP: 22.5% (7th) PK: 80.3% (15th) Top 5G: 1.) Alex Ovechkin (49) 2.) Evgeny Kuznetsov (27) 3.) Nicklas Backstrom (21) 4.) TJ Oshie (18) 5.) Lars Eller (18) Top 5A: 1.) Evgeny Kuznetsov (56) 2.) John Carlson (53) 3.) Nicklas Backstrom (50) 4.) Alex Ovechkin (38 ) 5.) TJ Oshie (29) Top 5 PTS: 1.) Alex Ovechkin (87) 2.) Evgeny Kuznetsov (83) 3.) Nicklas Backstrom (71) 4.) John Carlson (68) 5.) TJ Oshie (47) Key Additions: None Key Losses: Their coach, Philipp Grubauer (G), Jay Beagle (C), Brooks Orpik (D), Alex Chiasson (RW) Projected Lineup: Ovechkin - Kuznetsov - Wilson Vrana - Backstrom - Oshie Burakovsky - Eller - Connolly Gersich - Stevenson - Smith-Pelly Orlov - Niskanen Kempny - Carlson Djoos - Bowey Holtby Copley Top Prospects we might/might not see 1.) Ilya Samsonov, G, 1st round 2015 2.) Jonas Siegenthaler, D, 2nd round 2015 3.) Alexander Alexeyev, D, 2nd round 2018 4.) Lucas Johansen, D, 1st round 2016 5.) Connor Hobbs, D, late 2015 My thoughts The cup champs are bringing back most of their roster. The coach is gone, and they might have a wicked cup hangover. But you can never count out the reigning champions. They should be a rock-solid hockey team with a lot of swagger.

I think doing that will be our best bet for depth scoring. it'll cascade and make things easier on the berglund group too

I commend your work in that thread. But if Housley uses a corsi sample size of less than 60 minutes with a bad hockey player to justify playing Matt Tennyson over Nelson, who rank dead last and ~8th in the organization pecking chart for me as far as actual hockey ability, then Housley has completely lost me permanently

good meme

I promise I won't be a party pooper in the actual GDT or on Thursday at all.

Halak was the main goalie on the team that allowed the second-most goals of any team since 2005-2006. We're totes scoring 1 goal and losing handily

He also scored against us in some recent prospect tournament, according to hfboards.

Elie had six goals last year but scored in both of the Stars' games against the Sabres.

Same. And if I find an easy way to figure that out, I'll report back with the results.

Go Yankees!!

Pi's minus point does support the idea that those three are varying degrees of "quite bad" in their own zone. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

I ultimately feel that Ottawa looks to be the worst team in the league. But what are the chances of them having a chip on their shoulder, as the offseason laughingstock of the league? They're talked about every day, and all it is is about how trash they are. I'd bet whoever winds up in that dressing room wants nothing more than to shut those people up. I don't think they could even ride that to a competition for a playoff spot, but it could be enough for them to not be worst in the league/bottom3. Just a thought. I'd still put money on them finishing last