LGR4GM

What nonsense. You're using projections, which fine okay, and then you picked wingers based on your own feels. Meier at those numbers for example, would be not only highest scoring winger on NJ but the 2nd highest scorer period. That's not a "2nd line winger" Just a total garbage analysis here. Be better. It's what's the average pt production for the 4th winger on a playoff team, not this nonsense.

I did this once but tomorrow, I'll pull the numbers for toi. Again if Zach Benson were 6'3" none of you would say anything. If he were a rookie this year, you'd be excited. It's because he's 5'10" and played last yr at 19. Show you're work then. Give us the last 3 years.

No he didn't. He got a healthy dose of ***** including Cozens. Half his time is with guys with the yips.

Just so everyone knows... He went down by .1 g/60 and .1a/60 He also went to .8 from .6 in primary A/60 so sure, you're right. He went down a whopping 0.1

You know how yall whine about the lack of players going to the hard places on the ice? That's where Benson passes to. Not here on Sabrespace apparently

Dylan Cozens was awful. Jack Quinn didn't score on a goalie until December. You're proving my point and I've looked at the toi at even for those guys. So no, I don't mean Tage and Jiri.

Sabrespace: we need more guys tough to play against, who play the game the right way, are gritty, go to the tough areas. Also Sabrespace: well no not like Benson cuz he's short or something and only had 28pts as a 19yr old playing with a center who couldn't hit water if he fell off the titanic. The truth: if Zach Benson was 6' tall and this was his rookie year, expectations would be sky high. The crowd that ***** most about playing the right way totally discounts Benson for doing that. The guy is elite defensively, already, today. Zach Benson is going to be an elite nhl playmaker sooner rather than later. The big jump in production is coming. Will it be this year? Maybe not but he's still a top 6 forward without it.

Yikes. Might be the worst take in the thread. Benson will be about a 16g, 30a player this season and provide his excellent 2way play throughout. Soon to be? Benson won't be 21 until May.

I don't see how Benson will have only 18 assists this year. He'll have more because he won't be stuck with shooting impaired players.

Did the Senate pass this bill? Did the president sign it into law?

Ottinger, Wolf, Gustavsson, Woll, Dostal, were all 26 or younger this past year and were better than UPL. Hell, Soderblom in Chicago has a better sv% than UPL and that team is bad. He's 52 in sv% while being 16th in TOI, every single goalie with higher TOI has better numbers and only 1 has a sub .900 sv%. You gotta get to the 25th goalie in TOI to find someone with a worst sv%. UPL has a lot to prove this year and I do not believe that his awful 2024 season was solely a result of the defensive effort his team gave. Dude was a sieve for large stretches.

Trump being involved or not, you don't pardon a monster like Ghislaine Maxwell. You also don't quietly remove her to a minimum security white collar prison. She's an evil person, truly heinous in what she has done. Special treatment reeks of one thing only, cover up. Conservative friend tried the stunt I expect here, "What if Bill Clinton or Biden were involved in the Epstein files! What then!" Well, you put them in prison and let them rot for the rest of their natural lives because the crime is so disgusting there is no redemption. This isn't a Republican v Democrat issue. It is a common decency and morality issue and sadly it won't play out that way. There's plenty of evidence that the political elite in the US are not beholden to the rule of law.

A lot of stats are contextual so they don't translate directly. That said, if a guy on Buffalo is bad and you swap him for a guy from a different team that's got better stats, hoping the new guy is better makes sense. For example Doan was basically Utahs Benson (high in xgf% and hdcf%) so there's a better chance he's going to be decent defensively in Buffalo than if we got Utah middle of the road guy in the stats. Will he be? Idk. Idk if Benson will breakout. Idk if Thompson will score 40g or Dahlin 60pts. Stats predict but don't guarantee a future outcome. Oh and I'm not comparing Doan to Peterka here. I'm comparing Doan more so to Lafferty.

You vote for a party and then that party gets that percentage of seats. It is how the electoral college should already work. It is insane that if you get 1 more vote than the other guy you get an entire states EC.

I don't agree. +/- only tells us that players even strength goal differential. I think within a team it can tell you some things but I don't think he tells us how successful a player was. If I take Zach Benson and deploy him with Bryson and Samuelsson and he gets UPL being a sieve every night, his +/- is going to be ***** regardless of what he does. In the end, I think ppl will use the stats they like and I can't really argue with that. I use xgf% because it helps be contextualize both offense and defense.

Zach Benson is the best defensive player on the team. But you're right, he imported that himself. It's why I want Wilford gone and why they need to understand drafting better.

Let's say Cozens is a 10% shooter, he's that because he doesn't get to the spots he needs to and takes the shot types he needs to. Now Tage is a 15% guy. So they get to point X on the ice and take a wrist shot. You're arguing that Tage will score more there because the league average is 11% and Tage shoots higher, yes. But you're looking at 4 goals on 100 shots. We also know the areas players score more from. Xgf% would not be the same because of Tage scores more from a spot than so does others, so the average goes up. If Tage prevents shots from those spots it prevents xga. Cozens would have to shoot from the same places meaning he's skilled enough to get there and defend the same shots. It's just not happening. Versus actual goals for. If I put Tage on a team with a real goalie his actual goals against goes down even if his xga stays the same. He's still giving up what xga says. It's also why on ice sv% is important. Idk, I think we just fundamentally disagree about what xgf shows and why it's better statistically than actual goals for and against. Doesn't mean they both can't tell us things.

No xgf wouldn't be the same. You wanna know why? Good shooters get to the good shooting spots. And xgf% is also looking at the defensive side of things. You're suggesting actual goals, which are rarer than shots, measure individual players contributing to winning more but stats says they don't. Sure that noise might even out over a career for actual goals but the funny part to me is so would the xgf. The good shooters get to the good spots to shoot, that's the key.

That's not accurate. Xgf takes into account league average sh%. The problem with actual goals for and against is all the extra noise and all the randomness. There's simply a better sample of shots. We could get into GAR and WAR but that's really complicated and the models vary a ton.

He's actually a good puck carrier but he's too small/weak down low

Yea xgf is a better predictor than +/- Xgf predicts goals based on shot type location and movement. It better shows what a player contributed to. Yea it's why no one serious about this stuff uses 1 stats alone.

It's why you don't use 1 fancy stat to explain a player. It however has better predictive measures than +/- so what you say there is not correct.

Specifically, the Sabres moved away from a bunch of guys with bad xgf%. Whether that's deliberate or just more dart throwing, idk. The other issue is better coached teams have better xgf% overall. So we'll see what happens. Xgf% is impacted by how teams play. Buffalo plays or played a very rush oriented attack with limited ability to cycle, so they don't get a bunch of chances. On the inverse they were mediocre shot getting pucks out so that all comes together.

The crazy part is they brought back Bryson. I think the Sabres looked at some stats and decided to upgrade, I think without better gt, it won't be enough.

But the offense is experienced. Benson, Tuch, Zucker, McLeod, and evert Thompson know how to play on both sides of the puck. Norris could be included too. It's really only Kulich and potentially Tage who aren't stout defensively. The defense on the other hand lacks experience all over. Dahlin is the only defender with 300+ games.