rakish
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Posts posted by rakish
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Can I dissuade you from watching this? It's 29 dreadful minutes of me talking data visualization in general, and how it relates to hockey.
It's called Supply Chain Management and Sam Reinhart.
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My bad for starting this, and Batista, that was who Drane talked about
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Just now, Taro T said:
Are you "eye testing" to alter your ranks when your model's raw numbers are close? (I.e. why is Beniers ahead of Eklund and L'Heureux ahead of the next 4 guys?)
One issue is you're not seeing age 16, which would complicate things for the viewer. The second is that I rely on @pi2000 and @LGR4GM to tell me whether Power can play defense, or he can't. Whether you can plan on Beniers covering the other teams best players or not. I could spend hundreds of hours watching tape trying to decide on Power, but Pi and Liger tell me. The third, if I put L'Heureux behind O'Brien, there is zero chance of getting L'Heureux. My order, it's possible I get both. There are some picks that can't happen, like Fyodor Svechkov, but that's pure virtue signalling.
If I was more organized, I had planned on having the MODO player I looked at on my board for @MODO Hockey, and the Halifax player for NS, and the Penn St player for the guy Drane used to go on about in the Sabres hierarchy, starts with a B.
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The numbers in parens are where others rank the player, it's helpful to me for ordering. The rakish: number is the 17th year raw valuation using my app. Defensemen didn't get the raw number because it's on a different scale. Goaltending is a lark, mostly to test some ideas.
Dylan Guenther (2-12) rakish:1320 (12 games)
Owen Power
Matt Beniers (1-18) rakish:1012
William Eklund (2-10) rakish:1125
Cole Sillinger (10-20) rakish:747
Mason McTavish
Brandt Clarke
Simon Edvinsson (2-11) D
Logan Stankoven (13-44) rakish:732
Sebastian Cossa (14-32) G (Only select one goaltender)
Anton Olsson (32-98) - D
Olen Zellweger (31-88) D
Connor Roulette (39-95) rakish:675
Brett Harrison (29-84) rakish:694 (not many games)
Samu Salminen (31-98) rakish:652
Ville Koivunen -- (30-91) rakish:580
Riley Kidney -- (70-92) rakish:600
Zachary L'Heureux (11-35) rakish:514
Xavier Bourgault (15-36) rakish:552
William Stromgren (21-92) rakish:557,543
Jack O'Brien (84-215) rakish:544
Fyodor Svechkov (9-37) rakish:534
Colton Dach -- (50-96) rakish:496
Victor Stjernborg -- (43-71) rakish:475
Niko Huuhtanen (117-157) heavy rakish:328
Simon Knak -- overager (86 NA css)
Isaac Belliveau (62-239) D
William Trudeau (83-200) D
Jack Bar (37-87)
Mikey Milne -- (162 NA css) rakish:512
Eric Alarie -- (51 NA css) rakish:474
Olivier Nadeau (74-101) rakish:461
Rhett Rhinehart - overager
Benjamin Gaudreau (Only select one goaltender)
Thomas Milic (only select one goaltender)
Oliver Satny (Only select one goaltender)
Jeremi Tammela -- (112 EU css) tiny rakish:406
Matic Török
Bogdan Krokhalyov
Viktor Hurtig -- overager (51 EU css) huge
Hunter McKown - overager
Kevin Pasche
Nikolas Hurtubise
Sebastian Trygg -
Forgot about McCabe, losing McCabe here is possible
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3 minutes ago, Taro T said:
Okposo & Miller too.
Likely 1 of the 2 D is the selection. With Botterill's ties maybe they go off the board & select Girgensons.
There are others like Eakin available, but would be shocked if the selected player weren't one of those4. (With Seattle getting something extra for certain should Okposo go.)
My argument is that Okposo, Skinner, Eakin, and Miller would each need sweeteners, and the market price for sweeteners will be set by the teams trying to manage their cap, and to try to hold on to their depth. BS have none of those problems, so will find the price of getting rid of Okposo, Skinner, Miller, Eakin too high
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1 minute ago, Weave said:
So, for the lazy, who does that expose?
Borgen, Girgenssons...
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36 minutes ago, SDBillsfan said:
So why aren't we making a deal with Florida (say sending them a 2nd or 3rd round pick) to get Driedger, protect him and expose Tokarski, who Seattle will never select? Both teams would benefit. I'm really puzzled over our lack of attention or urgency to our goaltending situation, and this seems like a golden opportunity to snag a young, promising goaltender without having to make it any part of an Eichel, Reinhart or Risto trade. And if they do have another goaltender in mind to be a piece of one of those trades, then Driedger would probably be an excellent backup candidate. Am I missing something?
What I think you're missing is that if Florida trades Driedger to Buffalo for a 3rd, they will still lose another player to Seattle. In your hypo, they now lose 2 players and get back a 3rd, instead of losing 1 player.
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8 minutes ago, ubkev said:
The Don didn't treat Carlo as a part of the family because he didn't approve of his daughter marrying him. He always believed him to be of low character. Plus he was half Northern Italian, and he was a hand laborer from Nevada. He was given a small sports book and he ran it pretty poorly. Carlo sucked.
In my imaginary dinner with Ralph Kreuger, he explains that Jeff Skinner sucks, he's a hand laborer from Nevada, and OMG, half Northern Italian. That's RK's weakness as a manager, not his strength, he's out of a job partially because Jeff Skinner didn't score 45 goals this year. Anybody can pee on Jeff Skinner as coach, and Jeff will score 3 goal for you. It doesn't make you right even if Jeff's a hand laborer from Nevada. The competent manager, like Teddy, will get Skinner to score, because he's able to motivate him.
I agree with you that that is the Don's view of the world, and the fillmakers are telling you that this vision of the world leads to your daughter's husband going to the Tatanias because the Don never treated him as family. You can say Carlo sucked, and be sitting home like Krueger, because it's not important that you are right about Jeff Skinner, it's important that Jeff Skinner scores 45 goals for you. The Don needed to have Carlo believe he was part of the core. Kreuger needed to have Skinner believe he was part of the core. Asking Jeff to waive is exactly like peeing on Carlo, it's really bad management.
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$39? They're making me buy by the dozen?
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I'm trying to demo some software. It really needs to be 5 minutes, not 14 minutes, but if you want to know how other teams matched lines against Arttu Ruotsalainen when they have last change... what's 14 minutes?
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22 minutes ago, pi2000 said:
There have been Risto trade rumors for the past 3 years. This is nothing new.
My source and I don't believe a deal is close at this time.
Pi, this perspective will not get you 8 minutes on WGR
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ok, I'll bite
I often find looking through the lens of The Godfather's family relations helpful in explaining management decisions. One of Vito's weaknesses as a manager is his treatment of non-family. Carlo marries his daughter to open the film, which means the storyteller views this as 'where this story begins'. Carlo is never treated as core, Vito doesn't treat his daughter as core, let alone her husband. It comes as no surprise that Carlo doesn't buy-in to the Corleone family.
The GM of the BS is married to Jeff Skinner, he needs Skinner to buy-in. Skinner needs to be treated as core, because if he's not treated as core, he will not believe, and he needs to believe. If Adams has a deal in place to get rid of Skinner, which I doubt, then woohoo, but if not, asking him to waive his NMC is analogous to Vito not bringing Carlo into the family. This board yammers endlessly about culture and buy-in, but you all seem unwilling to pay the price of creating that culture. And yeah, I get there is a non-zero difference in value between your 8th available player and your 9th, but Skinner's got to believe.
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Victor Olofsson could become a star, but requires linemates who move the puck latterly in the offensive zone. The Sabres currently have no linemate for him, and I believe will never find one for him. If he ends up in, say, Boston, watch out.
Stats indicated the Sabres decided to trade Sam Reinhart a long time ago, as they played him against the weakest competition to pad his stats.
Adams met with Eichel just before Eichel's famous 'Wherever' quote and purposefully angered him so Adams would have license to trade from the fans. This now bites Adams in the butt as other teams know the price will come down as Eichel must be dealt.
The Sabres will once again form a defense with not enough players who can play the PK.
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8 minutes ago, dudacek said:
<snip>
These conversations are pointless because the underlying theme is the pro-Borgen camp sees him as McCabe and Risto as Meszaros, whereas the pro-Risto camp sees Borgen as Mike Weber and Risto as Tyler Myers.
This is why a teams valuation system is critical, because if you do non-contextual valuation (like analytics), you will hate all the players that play against Marchand, and love all the players that don't. I believe that once you have a analysis model that you believe in, you no longer see the player fairly, but your perception is highly influenced by the numerical valuation.
I tried to get @Randall Flagg and @Hoss to test this theory by watching Sabres' highlights to see if they could make me see one of the Sabres I hate, play well.
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3 minutes ago, rakish said:
I've started to use the laugh button, I don't want to, but I can't seem to stop
Your response was cold
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1 hour ago, Taro T said:
Again, where's the :rolleyes: emoji when you really need it? 😉
I've started to use the laugh button, I don't want to, but I can't seem to stop
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There's a nice youtube that the New Jersey Devils put out looking at each shift of Anton Olsson, it's kind of a nice pairing with my video if you want to deep dive.
Have you heard my Adam Boqvist conspiracy theory? I try to sort out the Anton Olsson comparables
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30 minutes ago, SDS said:
I love tomato sandwiches.
Now that I have a paddleboard, I don't even fear hosting someone's teenage children.
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5 minutes ago, Hoss said:
It has felt like the draft is months away for a while but luckily for all our sanity it’s a week and a half away.
Week and a half, crap, I got 500 videos to make
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6 hours ago, Pimlach said:
Help me @Thorny, what was that? I think I clicked on it by mistake? Who was it?
My girlfriend's parents acted exactly the same way when we first met
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3 minutes ago, SDS said:
I love tomato sandwiches.
First tomato came yesterday, tonight it's bread, cheese, tomato, sausage, olive paste, and wine, I'm starting to get full
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3 hours ago, inkman said:
See Edmonton 😀
Did I just get major trolled? Don’t mind the discourse. Glad you could bring some data to my near worthless opinion.
Trolled? No disagreed with. And I value your opinion very highly. Next time you drive to Florida crash here for the night, my girlfriend has a bigass house. And now that Virginia has gone legal, there's something growing in the backyard for company.
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5 minutes ago, Brawndo said:
Supposedly each Team’s List will be made public on Sunday
Fantastic news
Which Sabre Benefited Most Last Season from Granato Taking Over As Coach? And Who Will Emerge This Season?
in The Aud Club
Posted
Dave, I'm interested in your usage theory, I've talked about it a little bit, is this from me, or is it something you saw on your own?