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rakish

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  1. Sabres "Fantasy Gambling" Contest

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    I'm wanting to get a bit better at handicapping, so I've been looking at some stats

     

    What interests me about this game is tired vs. fresh. The Sabres played last night, the Islanders have had two nights off. In the last 15 years, against a team with two days off, the back to back road team with a worse team points per game is 193-420. Early in season (first 20 games), before the tired team is really tired, the win loss is a bit better 64-103. Replacing goal differential for team points per game gets similar numbers.

     

    You may argue that the reason for the back to back poor play involves the backup goaltender, which isn't an issue here.

     

    Previous total: 1000

    Today's bet: 150 Islanders

  5. OT: East coast Road Trip

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    If you like painting, the Metropolitan Museum in New York is my favorite, Guggenheim has novelty because of the building, but is tiny

    Air and Space in DC is good

    If you like baseball, I would see it in Boston

    Niagara Falls is great

    If you like auto racing, I would see the Daytona Nascar race or the Talledaga race, maybe Richmond

    Walk the Brooklyn Bridge, from Brooklyn into the city,

    Walk from the North end of Central Park to Wall Street

    If you are allowed to climb the statue of liberty, you must be on the first boat of the day.

    If there is a cuisine you can't get at home, you can find it in NY

    In my neighborhood, Monticello is good. Yorktown gives you a good feeling of space, as does Appomattox, because these three are relatively the same as they were 200 years ago. Avoid Williamsburg

     

    Beware the South during the summer

  10. Stafford needs to go

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    I don't listen much. But I can pretty much tell you in the next five minutes somebody will be talking about why having a consistent starting goal-tender isn't really what the team needs, and somewhere there is a team that has a guy on a run for 15 games that is cheap that allows us to consider that starting goal-tending can really be found anywhere.

     

    prescient

  11. Stafford needs to go

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    Certainly not a good contract, but to Eleven's point, we watch and believe that he's not trying, but you look at the stats, and, for the most part, he's on the ice for Sabre's goals, and he's not on the ice for other teams' goals. I would think that anyone trying can play in the defensive zone, and am not sure why Stafford's numbers aren't a whole lot worse.

     

    Just a disconnect I'm trying to figure out, not a defense of Stafford's floating, lack of scoring, or contract.

  12. Stafford needs to go

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    I hate watching Stafford, but his numbers are always better than what you might think, and it's gone on too long for me to attribute to luck. This year, his plus/minus with Hodgson is appalling (minus 6 in even time 24 minutes together, nothing on the PP). If you take either player's playing time away from the other, each player's stats are much better. Anybody have any theories?

     

    Last year Stafford's plus/minus numbers were great with Gerbe, Ennis, and Foligno. This year they tried the Stafford with Ennis and Foligno, but never really tried the Stafford/Gerbe pairing again this year. (Gerbe's historical great pairings have mostly left: Gaustad, Boyes)

     

    If this chart doesn't render, I'll try another method

     

    <table><tr><td>Teammate</td><td>Plus-Minus</td><td>Goals</td><td>GA</td><td>Time</td><td>PK</td><td>PP</td><td>Even</td></tr>

    <tr><td>26</td><td>-2</td><td>3</td><td>2</td><td>26</td><td>1</td><td>10</td><td>14</td></tr>

    <tr><td>29</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>0</td><td>21</td><td>1</td><td>15</td><td>4</td></tr>

    <tr><td>19</td><td>-6</td><td>0</td><td>6</td><td>45</td><td>0</td><td>19</td><td>24</td></tr>

    <tr><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>3</td><td>6</td><td>124</td><td>25</td><td>14</td><td>84</td></tr>

    <tr><td>42</td><td>-1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>24</td><td>0</td><td>4</td><td>19</td></tr>

    <tr><td>82</td><td>-3</td><td>5</td><td>8</td><td>165</td><td>0</td><td>8</td><td>156</td></tr>

    <tr><td>63</td><td>2</td><td>11</td><td>6</td><td>225</td><td>1</td><td>19</td><td>204</td></tr>

    <tr><td>55</td><td>-1</td><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>50</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>46</td></tr>

    <tr><td>32</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>5</td></tr>

    <tr><td>36</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>3</td></tr>

    <tr><td>25</td><td>0</td><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>41</td><td>0</td><td>5</td><td>35</td></tr>

    <tr><td>8</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>4</td></tr>

    <tr><td>37</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr>

    <tr><td>Total</td><td>-6</td><td>13</td><td>22</td><td>395</td><td>35</td><td>42</td><td>317</td></tr>

    </table>

     

    Ok, the chart didn't render, I'll try this

    Teammate Plus-Minus Goals GA Time PK PP Even 26 -2 3 2 26 1 10 14 29 0 3 0 21 1 15 4 19 -6 0 6 45 0 19 24 9 1 3 6 124 25 14 84 42 -1 0 1 24 0 4 19 82 -3 5 8 165 0 8 156 63 2 11 6 225 1 19 204 55 -1 2 4 50 4 0 46 32 0 0 0 5 0 0 5 36 0 0 0 4 0 0 3 25 0 2 2 41 0 5 35 8 0 0 0 4 0 0 4 37 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Total -6 13 22 395 35 42 317

     

    Almost, here's another try

    Teammate Plus-Minus Goals GA Time PK PP

    Even

    26 -2 3 2 26 1 10

    14

    29 0 3 0 21 1 15

    4

    19 -6 0 6 45 0 19

    24

    9 1 3 6 124 25 14

    84

    42 -1 0 1 24 0 4

    19

    82 -3 5 8 165 0 8

    156

    63 2 11 6 225 1 19

    204

    55 -1 2 4 50 4 0

    46

    32 0 0 0 5 0 0

    5

    36 0 0 0 4 0 0

    3

    25 0 2 2 41 0 5

    35

    8 0 0 0 4 0 0

    4

    37 0 0 0 1 0 0

    0

    Total -6 13 22 395 35 42

    317

     

    Screw it, the last one gets the point across

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