rakish
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Posts posted by rakish
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@WildCard Answering your question in the Eichel thread. On the one hand Guenther only played 12 games, on the other hand he outscored a good upper class player (Neighbors, but I would need to check box scores to see how Guenther played with Neighbors) and his numbers at age 16 are pretty good too. I got a month to think about it.
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2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
Is that Seth Jarvis I see way up there... it is!
I erred last year with my draft board. I think I believed that since there was no way Rossi was going to be there at 8, I didn't really need to think about whether I wanted Rossi or Jarvis.
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Ok, @WildCard, I spent a couple hours trying to answer your 2 questions, how do potential returning Eichel trade fruit compare and how do this years draft fruit fit in to previous drafts. So I took my model which is based on eliteprospects data (no PP split) and jammed in the pick224 data which splits out the even strength points, I used EV P1/gp. I couldn't use everyone as pick224 does not go back very far for say Liiga, but I think this gives you an idea. This solidifies my belief that we're not looking at a weak draft, it's just not very deep.
1 CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 1746
2 Jack Hughes (F)USDP 18 1531
3 JACK EICHEL NCAA 1444
4 Dylan Guenther***WHL 1320
5 Quinton Byfield OHL 1289
6 Seth Jarvis WHL 1192
7 William Eklund***SHL 1125
8 Marco Rossi OHL 1014
9 Matthew Beniers***NCAA 1012
10 Andrei Svechnikov (F)OHL 976
11 Alexis LafrenièreQMJHL 960
12 DYLAN STROME OHL 819
13 MITCHELL MARNER OHL 760
14 CODY GLASS WHL 741
15 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS QMJHL 662
16 Lucas Raymond SHL 640
17 NICO HISCHIER QMJHL 630
18 Trevor Zegras (F)USDP 18 605
19 Kirby Dach (F)WHL 585
20 Brady Tkachuk (F)NCAA 563
21 NOLAN PATRICK WHL 557
22 Dylan Cozens (F)WHL 539
23 Jack Hughes (F)USHL 502
24 Trevor Zegras (F)USHL 475
25 Peyton Krebs (F)WHL 360-
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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:
Was reading a report this morning that put Beniers ceiling around 55 points. Make of that what you will.
I get 75. In 5-5 Beniers scores about 75% what Jack did at age 17. Beniers outscored his cohorts by a little more, and they were, as a group, a little better, I might get talked into 80.
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I'm just starting to be done putting together my draft list for year 8 (?) of Mom's Basement Stakes, If you need to ketchup, last years' post is over at hfboards. https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2020-moms-basement-stakes.2769630/
I has planned on doing podcasts about my process, and all that, but I can explain in about 100 words, so we'll just do that. I use 2 strategies to find draft picks, the first I look for players that outscore their teammates at even strength at their particular age. If you chart everyone, William Stromgren jumps off the page. Big Bill didn't get many PP points in U20 because... well... no one on the team scored during power plays. When he moved to Allsvenskan, he didn't get many PP minutes, or that's my theory anyway. The second strategy looks for overagers, as they are the most underdrafted group of players, last time I checked.
Draft analytics use some varient of NHLe, or eNHL, I forget which. This severely punishes players that don't play on the PP, or play on bad teams, or for some reason scores more than his teammates at even strength. I came up with about 10 so far in this group. Beniers, Eklund, Simon Robertsson, Zachary L'Heureux, Stromgren, Connor Roulette, Riley Kidney, Topias Vilen, Eric Alarie, Ryan McCleary. The second group, the overagers, Ryker Evans, Ruben Rafkin, Viktor Hurtig, Simon Knak, Christopher Merisier-Ortiz, Josh Doan.
So get your draft board together for Mom's Basement, you'll be competing against Bob McKenzie, Craig Button, and whomever else shows up. You'll need somewhere between 30-80 picks, depending on how much your list resembles McKenzie's.
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16 minutes ago, Brawndo said:
That’s only for CHL Players. As a college player His ELC kicks in as soon as it’s signed.
I don't understand all of this. Bryson signed on April 15, 2019 out of NCAA, why didn't his ELC kick in for the 2018-2019 season?
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1 minute ago, pi2000 said:
Dies anybody have a list of point per game college freshman forwards who were selected near the top of the draft the past 10 years or so?
Both eliteprospects.com and pick224.com would likely answer your question, pick224 separates data more for each player, eliteprospects would have the 10 years or so
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1 minute ago, Buffalonill said:
This organization just gives me a headache.
Like first overall?
Yeah, I had him 6th for the decade
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7 minutes ago, Brawndo said:
I trust Your Abilities over Botterill any day, but I should have clarified that Rossi would have been Number One out of the remaining players at 8.
Thank you, I appreciate it
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1 hour ago, Brawndo said:
Rossi was Number One on Botterill’s List
I had Rossi at 1 as well, I just put Lafraniere on top so people wouldn't laugh as hard
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Get a nice steak, grill. Roast some root vegetables, carrots are nice. Make some guacamole. Red Wine, I love Gallo's Paisano, I buy it by the gallon.
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Just now, Taro T said:
Well, out of 4+ coaches that have deployed Skinner, not a single 1 DIDN'T bump him off the top line. Even Housley bumped him off the top line to get a look at Olofsson there but he did bump him back up at the end of the year to let him get to 40.
I'm not saying the 4 coaches are wrong, I'm saying Skinner almost certainly believes the 4 coaches are wrong. It's not me or you making the decision to waive, it's the guy that got bumped off the first line
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4 minutes ago, Taro T said:
Not even sure that Skinner's mom would take him at a $9MM cap hit for 6 more years. There's no way Francis would take him if available.
That should be a conversation Adams has with Jeff. Would allow the Sabres to keep all of Asplund, Bjork, & Thompson should they want.
Maybe they should have played him more on the first line?
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Just now, LGR4GM said:
In a good way or bad way 😄
Doohickey was talking about Reinhart
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1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:
Nothing, Seattle has a great analytics team put together and I would bet money they would riot over adding a player like Risto.
Maybe my fav comment of the year
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3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
Literally want him traded. Today, tomorrow, or in the summer but I want him gone. I am sick of watching his brand of defense "get the puck, throw it up the boards" rinse and repeat. If you can't trade him, expose him. Seattle probably won't take him because their analytics department will implode.
I think it depends if Seattle has an analytics team like Toronto's pre-Bogo or post-Bogo.
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It would be nice to know if Seattle has the opportunity to take him, this is why I find the expansion draft unfulfilling.
As for my view on Risto, to paraphrase Homer Simpson, Risto is neither the cause of, nor the solution to, the problems of the BS.
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11 hours ago, Thorny said:
So 9 even strength, 6 on the PP, but 1 of the ES points was a 6 on 5?
Edit - I can see one at 6v5 for, the assist on the Thompson goal, and another 6v5 against point, an empty net goal for Sam
missed that
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11 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
Maybe? Not sure about that.
There's one 6x5 assist during that time, on Thompson's goal.
Goals
BUF #23 REINHART(13), Wrist, Off. Zone, 30 ft.Assists: #21 OKPOSO(6); #55 RISTOLAINEN(6) 23,21,68,55,78,35
BUF #23 REINHART(14), Snap, Off. Zone, 17 ft.Assist: #53 SKINNER(3) 23,53,68,33,44,35
BUF #23 REINHART(15), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 19 ft.Assists: #24 COZENS(5); #10 JOKIHARJU(5) 23,24,53,10,26,31
BUF #23 REINHART(16), Wrist, Off. Zone, 19 ft.Assists: #68 OLOFSSON(14); #53 SKINNER(5) 23,53,68,33,78,31
BUF #23 REINHART(20), Wrist, Def. Zone, 138 ft. 15,23,37,54,55,1
BUF #23 REINHART(21), Slap, Off. Zone, 39 ft.Assists: #26 DAHLIN(18); #31 TOKARSKI(1) 23,53,68,10,26,31Assists
BUF #72 THOMPSON(2), Snap, Off. Zone, 31 ft.Assists: #37 MITTELSTADT(5); #23 REINHART(10)17,23,37,72,4,62
BUF #68 OLOFSSON(10), Wrist, Off. Zone, 35 ft.Assists: #21 OKPOSO(8); #23 REINHART(11)23,21,68,55,78,35
BUF #53 SKINNER(4), Backhand, Off. Zone, 8 ft.Assists: #23 REINHART(12); #26 DAHLIN(13)23,53,68,10,26,35though I haven't updated the last game
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For me, when you're structuring your lines, you do so vs opponent first, then sort out the minutes second. Who do you want playing against Marchand's line? For me, it's Cozens with Asplund and Thompson.
Who do you next want playing against Marchand's line? I would put Eichel, Skinner, and Pommminville. Is Pommminville in shape? Who knows? Either way, we don't want Pommminville playing the minutes that Eichel does, so we'll play him once a week, or swap him with the 4th line in minutes. Give him a call. "Jason, 9 minutes a week, what do you say?"
Next you try to keep Reinhart's line off the ice when Marchand's on the ice. Reinhart like Olofsson is much better away from Eichel because they both defer to Eichel too much.
Last, you totally try to hide the Mittlestadt line, who is terrible defensively. (Watch the highlights of the first 2 goals 2 games ago) You only have Mittlestadt on the ice against the top line when you might be trying to lose games, what's that called? I forget. Development, that's what it's called.
So by minutes, if you need to number them, they are Eichel, Reinhart, Cozens, Mittlestadt.
So by opponent, it's Cozens, Eichel, Reinhart, Mittlestadt.
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2 minutes ago, dudacek said:
I don't think there is any mystery to the bold.
Johansson was traded because he was poised to become a UFA and the Sabres don't see him in their future plans.
They are going with UPL in Rochester next year and Tokarski is under contract and more than capable of being his battery mate down there. And, after this year, there is no way the Sabres should be going into next season with Johansson as the back-up.
As to the rest, I think it is very evident the Sabres have been using the finish of this season to observe and develop their youngsters by using them in as many situations as possible.
Yes, Dudacek, that's all a possible reading of their behavior, but at least admit that their are other possible reasons for their behavior. I'm not saying either reading is true.
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12 minutes ago, inkman said:
They aren’t tanking.
My nephews theory is that Johansson was traded because he was hated in the room. When the 2020 AHL all star goalie is traded for peanuts and Buffalo ends up playing the 2021 AHL goalie with OK numbers, my eyebrows raise a little.
Me and @Hoss talked about this yesterday, the team is playing an odd set of matchups. We talked about it in regards to whether Granato was keeping his job. Mittlestadt plays against the best opposing forwards, Dahlen is getting tougher matchups lately similar to Mittlestadt, to see if they can handle it? Maybe.
Not saying they are tanking, but not saying they're not, it's hard to guess motivation from the outside.
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OT: Your Dream Job
in The Aud Club
Posted
Stand-up.
I was trying to make youtube comedy videos in the early 1990s, well before youtube. I decided to look for actors at open-mics, so I started to go to faceboyz open mic and after about a month I decided I might be as good as all these people, so I signed up, and did that for a year or two.
The place in the East 90's, Comedy ______, I forget, (not Dangerfields) used to have open mic once a week. A couple times a year everyone would go to the club and sign up 6 months in advance, and part of their open mic is the woman that ran the club would consult for 3 minutes after your stage time. She asked me how often I performed, "Once a week" I lied, because I was performing about once every two weeks. "No. No. No, you gotta do 10 nights a week". If you've seen my podcast, you'd understand that I had a really low ceiling in my standup career, for multiple reasons.
15 years later I decide I still like the writing part, but the audience doesn't want to hear from someone my age, so I decide to write a script about a new performer being taught standup by her father, an updated All in the Family, with a 25 year old woman as meathead living in the basement of her retiring comedian father. My producer friend is interested, so we start development, which falls apart when he insists on doing blaxsploitation, "Dude, I can't write comedy for black people." But I got a lotta friends, what's one less? I decide to produce it on my own, so in 2017 I'm busing up to Queens once a week to shoot at a wonderful open mic, the actress is really good, we shoot about 20 to 25 performances, about an hour of material. She finds a working standup willing to play her father, and it's all good, until the working standup sees it as an updated My Three Sons, "I can't play Archie Bunker, it would be bad for my brand" ... sigh, it's terminally unfunny.
So searching around for another actress interrupted by covid: the youtube star who does Sabre game reactions and writes goofy songs would be perfect, she doesn't get back to me, the pole dancer in Arlington would take the project in an entire new direction, she goes to the wrong open mic in DC and changes her mind, the woman working at my dump actually reads the script...thinks about it...not doing it.
I gotta new plan... it's not over yet.