rakish
-
Posts
1,470 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by rakish
-
-
@LGR4GM The 500 posts for the week is, um... impressive, more than 70 per day.
Mom's Basement for 2021.
I think people under-emphasize the importance of order vs. valuation. A look at my board (page 79 in this topic) you'll see that if I had Cossa...Zellweger... Olsson instead of Stankoven...Olsson, I would have gained for myself a #14 pick I essentially didn't use, so I wasted the #14 pick by putting Cossa one spot behind Stankoven. Draftlook has the same issue, by drafting Wallstadt first (as compared to Liger's pick of Wallstadt at #14), Draftlook ended up with Wallstadt and Lambos instead of Eklund and Wallstadt, essentially trading #1 for the player selected #26.
I thought draftlook had more picks than they did, that's why they ran out of selections, I think they listed 32 picks. Liger ran out of picks for the last one, as did Button.
I was hoping to draft a goalie, I missed a couple opportunities by just one pick, oh well. The downside to having to make my list beforehand.
Sabres
#1 Owen Power (D),#14 Isak Rosén (F),#33 Prokhor Poltapov (F),#53 Alexander Kisakov (F)
#88 Stiven Sardaryan (F),#95 Joshua Bloom (F),#97 Olivier Nadeau (F),#159 Viljami Marjala (F)
#161 William von Barnekow (F),#188 Nikita V. Novikov (D),#193 Tyson Kozak (F)Pronman
#1 Owen Power,#14 Chaz Lucius,#33 Nikita Chibrikov,#53 Kirill Kirsanov,
#88 Justin Robidas, #95 Olivier Nadeau, #97 Vladislav Lukashevich (D), #159 Lorenzo Canonica (not drafted)
#161 Daniil Lazutin (not drafted), #188 Ty Gallagher, #193 Daniil PylenkovLiger
#1 William Eklund, #14 Jesper Wallstedt, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Simon Robertsson
#88 Dylan Duke, #95 Robert Orr #97 Sean Tschigerl, #159 Elias Stenman (not drafted)
#161 Trevor Wong (not drafted), #188 Simon Motew (not drafted), #193 xxxxxxWheeler
#1 Owen Power, #14 Chaz Lucius, #33 Sasha Pastujov, #53 Sean Behrens (D)
#88 Dylan Duke (F) #95 Joshua Roy #97 Connor Roulette, #159 Peter Reynolds (not drafted)
#161 Jeremy Wilmer (not selected), #188 Trevor Wong (not drafted), #193 Kelle Ervasti (not drafted)Button
#1 Owen Power, #14 Fedor Svechkov, #33 Samu Tuomaala (F), #53 Benjamin Gaudreau (G)
#88 Dylan Duke #95 James Malatesta (F) #97 Robert Orr (F), #159 Hunter Strand (not drafted)
#161 Dmitri Zugan (not drafted), #188 Nikita V. Novikov (D), #193 xxxxxxxxxSam (@draftlook)
#1 Jesper Wallstedt, #14 Carson Lambos, #33 Sasha Pastujov, #53 Sean Behrens (D)
#88 xxxxxxxxx42jerks
#1 Owen Power, #14 Jack Peart, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Sasha Pastujov
#88 Aidan Hreschuk (D), #95 Conner Roulette (F), #97 Guillaume Richard (D), #159 Kelle Ervasti (not drafted)
#161 Francesco Arcuri (F), #188 Eric Alarie (not drafted), #193 Zack StringerFCHockey
#1 Owen Power, #14 Jesper Wallstedt, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Simon Robertsson (F)
#88 Dylan Duke (F), #95 Ty Voit (F), #97 Vladislav Lukashevich (D), #159 Matvei Petrov (F)
#161 Connor Lockhart (F), #188 Dmitri Katelevsky, #193 Trevor Wong (not drafted)rakish
#1 Dylan Guenther, #14 Logan Stankoven, #33 Anton Olsson, #53 Connor Roulette
#88 Jack O'Brien (not drafted), #95 Victor Stjernborg, #97 Niko Huuhtanen (F), #159 Simon Knak (F)
#161 Mikey Milne (not drafted), #188 Eric Alarie (not drafted), #193 Rhett Rhinehart (not drafted)
-
1
-
-
10 hours ago, Hoss said:
This is something I’ll have to consider a little more going into next year’s evaluations which is something I’ll probably do sooner rather than later. Hope to be a bit more involved in the process next year.
What was your impression of Connor Hurley his draft year?
I haven't worked on this chart in a while, so it's not current. But here's 5 2nd rounders, 2 successful, and 4 Sabre picks. That is Aho the Finn. I gave you an extra year (to 18 or dy+1). Two dots means he played on 2 different teams
-
2
-
-
20 minutes ago, Hoss said:
An entire room of people thought this was a good idea. Maybe we need more women in front offices.
For me it's an NHL problem. Take him off the board, put him back in the draft next year. There's zero benefit to alienating a significant group of potential fans.
-
I find it hilarious that Montreal took Logan what's his name.
How could they be so out of touch?
-
12 minutes ago, WildCard said:
Does it though?
no
-
1
-
-
21 minutes ago, WildCard said:
Liger I lost it, repost your rankings. I wanna follow them tonight
Liger, do you pay Charlie or something?
-
2
-
-
A member of HFB joins Mom's Basement for the second consecutive year, giving Mom's 9 contestants.
42jerks board:
Power
Peart
Olausson
Koivunen
Pastujov
Kapanen
Salminen
Hreschuk
Martino
Roulette
Harrison
C Dach
Helenius
G Richard
Ervasti
Brabenec
Cardwell
Chiasson
Hinds
Alarie
Stringer
Guevin
Alexander
MacInnes -
4 minutes ago, Thorny said:
But couldn't they be playing Dahlin away from Marchand because they are trying to maximize what Dahlin does best? Or at least that may be equally reflective of their position on Dahlin. Does Marchand play on PK1?
Also, what about on the road? Unless I missed that. Wouldn't the opposing coach be more likely to move his good players away from our good ones, if possible?
This is 5-5, so there's no PK involved. I could only look at the road, but if XGA is degree of difficulty, it doesn't really matter if Buffalo was trying to play Dahlen against Marchand or not, it only matters if he did.
-
1
-
-
21 minutes ago, Thorny said:
Another interesting one.
I'm a bit confused on Reinhart. He seems to be reasonably far along to the right on those charts, maybe mid-pack on difficulty of opponent, and his expected goals against is really low. If I'm reading it right - I feel like that performance is pretty good? I think you mentioned you were interested in a trade re: Sam.
Thanks for watching. I'll link the two charts so you don't have to watch the video.
In the first png, I think you can make your argument that if you look down the 'right side' of the line, or look down the 'left side' of the line, you can differentiate between good defensive play and bad defensive play. I'm rejecting that argument, saying that expected goals against, or what I call 'should have against' IS difficulty of opponent. I'm arguing that Brad Marchand decides how many shots he's going to get, Brad's opponents' only job on defense is to make sure he gets worse shots. I'm arguing that your expected goals against is really just how much you are on the ice with Marchand. This turns the analytics value system upside down, as they believe that, say, Rasmus Dahlen is good because the stats say he's not on the ice for a lot of shots. I'm arguing that what that means is that Rasmus Dahlen is bad because the Sabres try to avoid having him on the ice with Marchand.
I call this the analytics death spiral because the Sabres (as they are deep into analytics) are purging the good players who play against Marchand, and signing to long term contracts the bad players who don't play against Marchand, because the Sabres believe XGA is important, while I argue that their valuation is upside down.
So therefore, for me, the relevant chart is the second one, as it tells you the difference between the expected goals and the actual goals, which is more or less shooting percentage. in raw values, I have Reinhart's expected goals against as 2.71 per 60, and what actually went into the net was 3.83 per 60. Which is worst on the team, not counting Caggiula and Dea.
-
1
-
-
Last call on Mom's Basement Stakes. The rules are simple, post a draft board, we take the highest undrafted player left on your board each time the Sabres pick. This is year 8, the previous history is posted over at hfb https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2020-moms-basement-stakes.2769630
Unless someone jumps in here at the last moment, this years eight contestants look like me, (listed on page 79 or so above), Liger has a PDF (maybe page 81 or 82 above), the usual suspects: Pronman, Wheeler, Button, and two boards that interest @LGR4GM Sam on Twitter (@draftlook) https://draftlook.netlify.app/ and FC Hockey https://nhlentrydraft.com/rankings/, and of course, the Buffalo Sabres
-
1
-
-
Part 3 of my series on Analytics. Part 1 is called Risto and can found a page or 2 back, it's a general introduction at 14 min, if I remember correctly. The second part is a 29 minute slog into what your data analysis tools need to do for you, it's a tough road, I get it. It can be found on my podcast page and is called Reinhart. Part 3, at about 7 minutes, I argue that analytics misinterpret a key variable, which they call XGA, which leads them to value the poor defensive players and get rid of the good defensive players, creating the analytics death spiral.
I forgot to mention that in the first chart 5 players don't appear, the only 2 of consequence are Eichel and McCabe. I'm trying to demonstrate the relationship between what I call 'Should Have Goals Against' (they call XGA) and the quality of competition.
-
1
-
-
On 7/20/2021 at 6:29 PM, rakish said:
I skipped one as I decided Brawndo or Hoss would take my team while I was working on it, so I went with New Jersey. Slim pickins, 2nd place goes to 32 year old UFA goaltender Aaron Dell, if you corner the market on goaltending you might be able to distribute them back for picks. The better option for New Jersey is Nathan Bastian. Played fourth line against the other teams power play forwards and didn't get eaten alive. His shorthanded work? The entire team has scary PK numbers, who coaches that team?
He's young(23) and can play a role. Makes 850 or 875, I forget.
Nathan Bastian was, of course, a gimme.
-
38 minutes ago, Hoss said:
You act like they just referred to the Hurricanes as the Carolina Panthers or something
How many times do I need to apologize for this for it to go away?
-
13 minutes ago, Curt said:
The other side of the coin is what Seattle really wants Power. They can trade up to get him, or sit tight and watch the ducks or devils trade up to grab him. It’s not just Buffalo selecting him that Seattle would need to worry about.
Which is all true, but I really think y'all are overthinking this. It's like last draft, their magic formula said Quinn. They could have traded down 4, maybe 6 spots and Quinn would have still been there, but if you like Quinn, take him.
-
6 minutes ago, Digger said:
That's what I would do to. I wonder if there's any value (I'm sure that there's some) for trading the 1OA to either Seattle or Anaheim if we can get an agreement that they won't pick Eklund. Seattle would get the publicity of choosing 1st overall in their first year in the league.
I think GM's think in terms of value, and not PR. Once Seattle knows you don't want Power, they're not going to give you something so they can select Power, they'll just let you select Eklund. Anaheim? it gets too complex too quickly, you got important questions like Tarasenko or Dunn.
As for Florian Elias, I drafted him last year with Buffalo's 6th round pick (See top of this page). I highly distrust the scoring stats in a player's first year in a men's league, so I would value Elias' 17th year in U20 more than his 18th year in DEL. I didn't consider him for my board because I already have him. The first year in a men's league thing is why I will likely get Olsson at pick 33 instead of Zellweger, who I also like.
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, Digger said:
It's a strange year. I kind of wish that the Sabres did not have the first overall pick with the pressure to pick Owen Power (hopefully the team will make the right choice).
Looking back on previous drafts it's kind of like the 2014 draft. The hype that year was Sam Reinhart vs Sam Bennett. Which Sam would go first?
Of course neither did. Ekblad went 1st, then Reinhart (2nd), Draisaitl (3rd), Bennett (4th). Other notables in the first round were W. Nylander (8th), Ehlers (9th), Tuch (18th), Pastrnak (25th).
Draisaitl looks like he should have been the pick for 1st. Brings me to another point of how closely we have followed the Oilers. Think if we had picked Draisaitl and then had won the McDavid lottery. Where would we be today? Same place as sellers? I know our issues have been less about the players and more about the poor ownership, GM's, and coaching.
I don't think the Sabres feel the pressure to pick Power. They chose Quinn last year because that's who they felt was best. I think they take Eklund.
-
9 hours ago, Taro T said:
Keep seeing people making selections with statements to the effect of 'Seattle can flip this guy at the deadline.' (Realize that Sakman was saying it could go either way.)
Really doubt that Francis will be using that as his selection criterion for the vast majority of players he selects. He's going to try to put a team together that can get ahead of: LA, SJ, Anaheim, & Vancouver while not allowing 5 Norris Division teams ahead of it. That is a very reachable goal IMHO.
Well, you get, what 30 picks, to find 23 players? This isn't how the draft is going to happen, we don't know enough information about deals, one teams pick will influence other teams picks, we're just talking hockey here. Toronto/Pittsburgh deal indicates to me the Toronto has a deal in place, Pittsburgh doesn't, but I'm just guessing.
What about this? I think you can get sufficient goaltending, OK defense, and too many Nathan Bastian type players, who is a pretty good hockey player. What you can't get enough of is power play talent, outside of the odd Tarasenko. What about rolling 3 lines, and having guys that only play power play, but don't play enough defense to get on the ice 5-5? Nikita Gusev comes to mind.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Taro T said:
Don't believe it's from you. It's what we saw with Krueger starting Cozens off on Eakin's wing and his tending to bury the kids. Mittelstadt starting the year on the taxi squad and then playing on a line where he'd have to generate any O he produced pretty much independently. As just a couple of examples.
But, maybe it was a Robin Williams sort of thing. He lost a plagiarism lawsuit for stealing jokes he'd heard waiting to go onstage in comedy clubs. Claimed, and it was plausible, that he didn't even realize he'd heard the jokes. (He did have quite the coke habit at one time.) His solution to avoid similar situations was to stay out of the clubs until just before he went on.
Don't believe my views came from here, but don't doubt some like you or @Randall Flagg can & have helped color them.
It's kind of exciting when someone sees the same thing live that I see in the data.
-
1
-
-
I skipped one as I decided Brawndo or Hoss would take my team while I was working on it, so I went with New Jersey. Slim pickins, 2nd place goes to 32 year old UFA goaltender Aaron Dell, if you corner the market on goaltending you might be able to distribute them back for picks. The better option for New Jersey is Nathan Bastian. Played fourth line against the other teams power play forwards and didn't get eaten alive. His shorthanded work? The entire team has scary PK numbers, who coaches that team?
He's young(23) and can play a role. Makes 850 or 875, I forget.
-
Nope, this is last year, Button got Devon Levi in 6th round.
Sabres: Quinn 8,Peterka 34,Matteo Costantini 131,Albert Lyckasen 193,Jakub Konecny 216
42jerks: Rossi,Mysak,Ronan Seeley,Michal Gut,Ethan Cardwell
McKenzie: Perfetti,Peterka,Brett Berard,Pashin,Oliver Suni
Button: Perfetti,Pourier,Pashin,Devon Levi,Pavel Tyutnev
Pronman: Perfetti,Gunler,Connor McClennon,Pavel Gogolev,Ivan Didkovskiy
Wheeler: Rossi,Gunler,Veeti Miettinen,Alexander Pashin,James Hardie
rakish: Rossi,Grans,Rory Kerins,Florian Elias,Eric Juhlin -
Just now, LGR4GM said:
Add my list to mom's basement stakes and if you have my 2020 list please send that to me.
My memory is that you were busy last year, and never made a list, but I'll look.
-
23 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
1 guy I don't want in round 1: Simon Edvinsson and I have tried to like him but the mistakes he makes really bother me. Other guy is Sasha Pastujov who I love the numbers on but if you watch and read, there are some flags about most of it translating.
1 guy in the 2nd: Ville Koivunen or Olen Zellweger. I think Koivunen going in the 2nd is more likely as Zellweger might sneak in. Koivunen was atop the j20 in points pretty much as a rookie and the only knock on him is speed but he's really under weight (because he's super young). Koivunen did have a good line mate in Tuuomala but he's just a solid team guy who can slide into your top 6 and make everyone around him better. If he gets faster, he's going to be a really good 2nd round steal.
My issue with Pastujov was only that pick224 has team USA numbers botched, and I'm not willing to wade through box scores to figure it out. I don't expect to get Zellweger, and Koivunen is even less likely, but my model likes them both fine.
-
4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
In my draft list I plan to release tomorrow, I'm a tease, poor skating really drops you down my list. There's some really talented guys who just can't get around the ice.
It's great to get your list, I'm not convinced focusing on skating will work, but we'll know more in 3 or 4 years. In the past our draft boards have been pretty close to identical, it's good there will be more divergence this year. I look at Pronman and Button each year and think, What are they thinking, then 3 years later for each it's How'd they do that?
-
57 minutes ago, pi2000 said:
Can you point us at your lists for drafts past? Say 3, 4, 5 years ago?
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2020-moms-basement-stakes.2769630/
if you want the raw list pi, I might be able to dig them up, Mom only shows the results. I think liger does 1 or 2 drafts, certainly 2018, and I think another
-
1
-
1
-
2021 NHL Draft Rankings
in The Aud Club
Posted
As did I, though Nadeau was off the board by that point.