rakish
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Posts posted by rakish
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8 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:
Welcome to SabreSpace.
Is this the Ghost of @PASabreFan?
@PASabreFan would have added a random diacritical mark in the title, his comedy always goes one step further. It's his tell.
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Matic Torok
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1 hour ago, Hoss said:
Skinner - Reinhart - Tuch
Krebs - Mittelstadt - Smith
Bjork - Cozens - Olofsson
Asplund - Girgensons - Okposo
Dahlin - Joker
McCabe - Borgen
Samuelsson - Hague
FIND GOALIE
You can't send send Tuch to Rochester, or Dahlin...wait a minute, nevermind
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Rhett Rhinehart, 5th round? 6th round? Is he available to be drafted, EliteProspects doesn't say he is, doesn't say he isn't. 3 and a half minutes on Rhett Rhinehart
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2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
This isn't accurate. We know that linemates, systems, teams impact metrics. A players metrics fall on a bell curve, they aren't static and context matters. Analytics are an important tool just like watching the games. It's how you don't do dumb stuff like trade anything for Frolic.
What's a bit spooky is that you made this comment while I was making the video, which addresses the same issues.
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19 minutes, pretty brutal.
I should have removed @Randall Flagg from my list of people I read, I think it would have made him laugh.
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1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:
So lets basically turn this assumption into Quinn.
My eye test of him says he will be a middle six at least, maybe 1RW (hoping for a 50 a point mark stone type).
But buffalo analytics track record has him as a 4RW ?How far back do we go, because I really always thought our drafting got better in the Botteril years.
Liger believes the drafting is better, I'm not as convinced. But you're getting away from the conversation. We're talking about methods of valuing analytics, and who is doing it well. My argument is that a teams ability to correct for age bias demonstrates their sophistication in analytics.
How do you know Buffalo analytics track record has him as a 4RW? And what does that mean?
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40 minutes ago, BagBoy said:
Sorry if I'm twisting the original intent of this thread, but I am just as interested in how the NHL employees who are getting paid to crunch analytics data rank. Who is doing a great job and why? Who are the laggards and where have they failed? I'd like to have a feel for who's who as long as Uncle Terry is still doing the hiring.
I did a video about this in the 2021 draft thread. My argument is that you value a teams ability to do analytics by examining their draft picks to see how they deal with age bias. I looked at 4 teams, to summarize, LA is good, Carolina does OK, Buffalo not so much, Pittsburgh doesn't recognize there's a problem that they need to adjust for.
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Beniers
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Simon Knak
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2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
Side question, how does Beniers look in your data because he basically just puts up a PPG every level he plays at.
Didn't realize this was for me, I'll do 3 minutes on Beniers next time I do a video. Now is not good as I'm suffering caffeine headaches
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Now that I've covered the general overview, and a guess at how other teams are doing their analytics, I'll move on to individual players. My memory is that this is pretty short, maybe 3 minutes, on Jeremi Tammela
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47 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
Guenther is overrated because he beat up on bad teams in the shortened WHL season. It is a sample size issue for me with him.
But he beat them just as hard at age 16
Look, there's 9 guys you could take at 1, My method drafts Guenther, yours is Eklund. That's why I keep track in Mom's Basement, I am, most of the time, wrong.
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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:
Speaking of Eklund. He had 14 points in his first I think 20 games and then had covid and an appendectomy. Idk, the underlying numbers look good, the tape looks really good, and he seems like a good guy who works hard. For me I just don't find any red flags other than "needs to get stronger" which is basically every player.
The red flag for me is that his 16th year was just OK. It's how I separate Draisaitl from Bennett. Sam's career has reverted to his 16th year, the guy just traded to Columbus had a shaky 16, but scores fine like he did at 17. Eklund year 17 was great, but scoring wise not Guenther great. Taking Eklund would be great at 3, or definately 5, but for me, not at one.
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1 hour ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:
I suspect we are back where, being "a big, physical kid" trumps everything else. Which is hilarious given the charts shown on how the somewhat undersized players comparatively overperform their draft position.
You're overgeneralizing.
The 6'5" player is great to select within the first 15 picks, but if you get past 15, he's not athletic enough to overcome the clumsyness the height creates. Yet teams will draft the 6'5" in the 5th round even though they don't score because they are just shooting darts. So it is very true that undersized players outperform their peers (because GM's undervalue their scoring, and overvalue height past pick 15), but it has nothing to do with Power or Edvinsson being good defensemen, both are legitimate top 5 picks, of which, there are about 9.
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Pittsburgh, you can read these now, right?
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I meant to look at Pittsburgh too, but I forgot, I'll make a jpeg and add Pittsburgh below
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7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
Adjust for age kids.
I gotta video coming, just give me an hour
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It's me, @Buffalonill and Guenther's Mom vs the rest of you.
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I put out a video on my draft process. I was hoping to avoid google, so I went with the public option at patreon. Turns out I had to post it on Vimeo anyway. https://www.patreon.com/joecochrane or
If you'd rather just see the list rather than hear about the process for 20 minutes:
Guenther,Power,Beniers,Eklund,Edvinsson,McTavish
picks for 33, still thinking about the order, it'll be some arrangement of these 5 I think.
Anton Olsson, Olen Zellweger, Conner Roulette, Brett Harrison, Sasha Pastujov
I'm not sure I'll put out another video with the rest of the draft board, it's not very ... watchable?
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14 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:
Why was arvidsson so cheap?
Without thinking too hard by me, Nashville feels they have too many players for the expansion draft, LA feels they don't have enough, so they are moving futures to get a player at a discounted price
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11 minutes ago, SDS said:
Maybe I’m different, but I like to think of this in terms of goal differential instead of player X’s personality versus player Y’s grit. It’s measurable. Put a goal expectations tag on every player/line and let that be the ultimate measure and who’s under performing or over performing.
if the second line is scoring 30 goals when we need for 40 from them, that is what needs to be known.
That's why you break down the HTML reports so you can do this sort of analysis. I did this sort of analysis with @inkman on the podcast last offseason. If you watch it, let me know if I said anything totally insane, memory is weird that way, my memory is that it was all genius.
If you want to do such analysis, I'm happy to podcast with you for an hour.
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8 hours ago, SDS said:
Yeah I know, but we talk in the weeds a lot. I’m just trying to go a little higher up. Ultimately, the good teams are defined by goal differential. We should be able to allocate a reasonable number of goals for each of the four lines on offense and the three lines on defense.
Allowing fewer goals on defense is harder to compartmentalize. But we can estimate goals per game by the keeper.
I think looking at it this way you can see how close or how far we really are.
I think it's about the weeds. You gotta pull the weeds and plant Lafleur, no great teams were built around a guy named weeds.
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2 minutes ago, WildCard said:
Now that this is over we can move on to Eichel. The draft is July 23rd. I would expect any Eichel deal to be within the next two weeks in order to give the draft staff at least a week to potentially work with whatever extra pick(s) we receive.
If they are getting futures, it makes sense to me to make the trade between the expansion draft and the entry draft, as teams will not want to protect one more player. If they are getting multiple expansion protected player, I think you're right, it'll happen before the expansion draft.
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Expansion draft timeline and roster freezes
in The Aud Club
Posted
Last time they didn't, if I remember correctly