Another fun "Goalies Suck" stat

[JoeSchmoe]

Rounding up, the Sabres goalies have let in 10 goals they shouldn't have in 5 on 5 play. Only 11 teams are on the bad side of even for this stat and the next closest team is about 3 goals better. 

Of Adams' many failings, not finding a #1 goalie in 6 years is his worst achievement... Especially with all the extra 1st rounders we've had as trade chips in this time.

Edited 16 hours ago by JoeSchmoe

[PromoTheRobot]

Who decides these goals that shouldn't have gone in? I'd really like to know how that judgement is made.

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Who decides these goals that shouldn't have gone in? I'd really like to know how that judgement is made.

Statistics is how. It's a reflection of shots faced and league averages.

[bob_sauve28]

We could of drafted this guy

 

https://www.nhl.com/wild/player/jesper-wallstedt-8482661

[LGR4GM]

GSAx works like this. The league tracks every shot on the ice and they get assigned a shot percentage, which means they also have a corresponding sv%. This tells us that compared to league average (shooters and goalies) the Sabres goalies give up the most goals or they are the worst in the league. 

A lot of us focus on defensive breakdowns. "Of course Sabres Goalie (I won't pick on anyone specifically) allowed a goal there, the shooter was left alone on at the dot!" Ok but let's chart all the shots from that spot without a defender within 5ft (they can do this now). Let's say that it goes in 500 out of 1,000 times. That's a .5xGF if you stop it as a goalie you get +.5xGA but if it goes in you get -.5xGA. Some of you are like, "well doesn't that just add goals against!?" and no. You have to remember the majority of shots are saved. Also the majority of shots have a like a .1xGF with stuff like breakaways up around .3xGF so to get up to 10 full goals within 2 months isn't great. That means each game the Sabres goalies are allowing an extra .3goals which doesn't seem like much but image if we swung that in the opposite direction and we were saving .3 more. That means the Sabres goalies are giving up a half goal more per game than the inverse goalies. 

The bottom line is the Sabres are inexperienced and yes there are defensive breakdowns. All teams have defensive breakdowns. Our goalies however are the worst in the league at making saves. We aren't particularly high on the list of giving up HD chances (someone can look at exactly where we are) so my conclusion is 2 things. First is the defense unit (forwards and defenders) are mediocre in their coverages, when a breakdown occurs, they take forever to cover it up. Second, our goalies are not good. Ellis and UPL have not been steady at all and Lyon was good until Lindy decided he should sit for a couple of weeks. The 3 goalie rotation doesn't work and Buffalo should move 1. I favor moving UPL due to the cost of his deal.

[Mustache of God]

It drives me nuts that this is the 3rd year in Adams tenure where they've run 3 goalies, and at the end of each season everyone admits that the 3-goalie thing doesn't work, nobody likes it. 

Just waive Ellis already. You gave up nothing to get him. 

 

#FREEOSTLUND

[DarthEbriate]

3 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

We could of drafted this guy

 

https://www.nhl.com/wild/player/jesper-wallstedt-8482661

Wallstedt (or Cossa) were both available at 15.

Remember, the first round was on 7/23 that year; they didn't trade for Levi until the next day. And although they were negotiating with Ullmark, he was already the established #1 veteran -- he needs a long-term replacement (right about last year in 2024). He left in FA 5 days after this pick was made.

When this pick was made on 7/23, their effective goalie pipeline was: Luukkonen coming off his hip surgeries, Tokarski, and Portillo still in college (and he was scared off by the GM's love for the undersized 7th rounder they acquired the next day).

They selected Rosén.

[PromoTheRobot]

15 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Statistics is how. It's a reflection of shots faced and league averages.

Without taking into account what led to those shots or the context they were taken.

Edited 1 hour ago by PromoTheRobot

[Thorny]

15 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Who decides these goals that shouldn't have gone in? I'd really like to know how that judgement is made.

There’s a little man that sits inside the goal that you can’t see, right behind the goal line on top of the camera at the back, who makes the call in real time 

sometimes on the broadcast you can hear a very faint “ow! goal..” when they get hit by the puck but still make the call 

Edited 1 hour ago by Thorny

[Jorcus]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

Wallstedt (or Cossa) were both available at 15.

Remember, the first round was on 7/23 that year; they didn't trade for Levi until the next day. And although they were negotiating with Ullmark, he was already the established #1 veteran -- he needs a long-term replacement (right about last year in 2024). He left in FA 5 days after this pick was made.

When this pick was made on 7/23, their effective goalie pipeline was: Luukkonen coming off his hip surgeries, Tokarski, and Portillo still in college (and he was scared off by the GM's love for the undersized 7th rounder they acquired the next day).

They selected Rosén.

I think this site would have gone bonkers mad if we had selected Wallstedt with that pick. He lights out right now but the Wild has for the most part been a defensive oriented team where goaltenders do well. Wallstedt may turn out to be a fine goalie but looking at his AHL stats you have to think he could go bad and any moment. in 27 games last year he had a .879 save percentage. That is bad for an AHL goaltender. Let's wait and see if he holds up before we complain about not going after him.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Without taking into account what led to those shots or the context they were taken.

This is inaccurate and also doesn't show an understanding of what is happening in the rest of the league. 

Some of the advanced models do take into account pre-shot puck movement as well as screens, shot type, nearest defender, you could really add any trackable variable to this formula. The other part is you assume that no other team is allowing a cross ice pass for a shot, or a breakaway, or a backdoor look. Most of these models are looking at shots over a 3 year rolling average. These types of plays happen EVERYWHERE on ALL teams. Buffalo's goalies save less of them than the rest of the league. Go ahead and defend UPL or whatever, the fact remains in all metrics that get tracked for goalies in the modern era, he is anywhere from below average to bad. Sure his numbers would improve with a better defense but some of these tracking numbers would not. If he sees an extra 1xG more a start than an average goalie with a bad defense and only sees .5xG more with a good one, that washes out in numbers. Basically if he sees 10 hard shots and saves 8 versus 5 hard shots and saves 4, it's the same.