Zach Benson: how good will he be this year?

[DarthEbriate]

When you combine the overall tenacity, defensive acumen, and most importantly the ability to get passes to shooters/finishers - Benson is the best LW on the roster.

Is he ready to be a LW1 and play the most minutes? No, that'd be Zucker (or TNT if they moved him to LW). But, that's on Adams/Pegula and roster construction, not on the coach/lineup construction.

If healthy and if either Norris/TNT remain healthy to be said finisher, then Benson will have a 50+ point season, minimum. More importantly, depending on the play of the center, Benson could have an unexpectedly good season.

[Broken Ankles]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't see how Benson will have only 18 assists this year. He'll have more because he won't be stuck with shooting impaired players. 

By shooting impaired players, you mean guys like Tage and Juri?  His even strength line combinations don’t fit this narrative.  Others include Quinn/Krebbs, Cozens/Quinn, Tage/Tuch and McLeod/Zucker.  The guys mentioned score points.  You don’t see Lafferty/Greenway/Beck until you get to 11 minutes of ice time.  The fact is his ATOI increased last year, but his production in Points per 60 decreased, as did his goals per 60 even though he wasn’t stapled to Greenway and was given ample opportunity to actually score goals.  His shooting percentage is anemic at 9% and I just haven’t seen enough for me to think he is anything other than a third line Defensive winger, until he isn’t.  Which is completely plausible as he’s only 20.

I voted #2 because options were limited, but I was closer to 2 than 1.  I find myself aligned with this statement from Thorny -“all 3 of my first liners are bonafide first liners, not 2 guys who are and 1 who may be because of them.” (You see Thorny, some people do read your $hit)

So let’s slow down on the coronation to first line winger, and see if his offensive game matures this year.  

https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_linecombo.php?select=F&forward=BUF%3A7111%3AZACH%3ABENSON&games=2024-2025%3AR%3A99&period=ALL&situation=EV

[LGR4GM]

48 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

By shooting impaired players, you mean guys like Tage and Juri?  His even strength line combinations don’t fit this narrative.  Others include Quinn/Krebbs, Cozens/Quinn, Tage/Tuch and McLeod/Zucker.  The guys mentioned score points.  You don’t see Lafferty/Greenway/Beck until you get to 11 minutes of ice time.  The fact is his ATOI increased last year, but his production in Points per 60 decreased, as did his goals per 60 even though he wasn’t stapled to Greenway and was given ample opportunity to actually score goals.  His shooting percentage is anemic at 9% and I just haven’t seen enough for me to think he is anything other than a third line Defensive winger, until he isn’t.  Which is completely plausible as he’s only 20.

I voted #2 because options were limited, but I was closer to 2 than 1.  I find myself aligned with this statement from Thorny -“all 3 of my first liners are bonafide first liners, not 2 guys who are and 1 who may be because of them.” (You see Thorny, some people do read your $hit)

So let’s slow down on the coronation to first line winger, and see if his offensive game matures this year.  

https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_linecombo.php?select=F&forward=BUF%3A7111%3AZACH%3ABENSON&games=2024-2025%3AR%3A99&period=ALL&situation=EV

Dylan Cozens was awful. Jack Quinn didn't score on a goalie until December. You're proving my point and I've looked at the toi at even for those guys. 

So no, I don't mean Tage and Jiri. 

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Sabrespace: we need more guys tough to play against, who play the game the right way, are gritty, go to the tough areas. 

Also Sabrespace: well no not like Benson cuz he's short or something and only had 28pts as a 19yr old playing with a center who couldn't hit water if he fell off the titanic. 

The truth: if Zach Benson was 6' tall and this was his rookie year, expectations would be sky high. The crowd that ***** most about playing the right way totally discounts Benson for doing that. The guy is elite defensively, already, today. Zach Benson is going to be an elite nhl playmaker sooner rather than later. The big jump in production is coming. Will it be this year? Maybe not but he's still a top 6 forward without it. 

Being too young only matters if you play young. Being too small only matters is you play small.

 

 

[LGR4GM]

You know how yall whine about the lack of players going to the hard places on the ice?

That's where Benson passes to. 

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Being too young only matters if you play young. Being too small only matters is you play small.

 

 

Not here on Sabrespace apparently

 

[dudacek]

I agree it's weird how Benson's defensive excellence is completely handwaved away by some who can't stop complaining about the team's lack of defence.

But I don't think its weird at all to question whether Benson can produce enough to play on a first line.

Thompson and Kulich played almost exactly the same amount of minutes with Benson as they did with Peterka.

• Their xGF% with Benson: 57.7%, with Peterka 50.6%.
• Their actual GF% with Benson: 55.6%, with Peterka 65.4%

And it's not like the eye test doesn't show Benson forcing turnovers and shooting into the crest in high danger areas, while Peterka bolts the zone early and picks corners from impossible angles.

[tom webster]

 

People just have the wrong belief that the league continues to get bigger and bigger. The median weight of skaters continues to drop and the median height has stayed constant at 6’1” throughout the salary cap era. Florida plays a tough, gritty, hard nosed game but on average, they were the third lightest team in the playoffs ahead of only Tampa Bay and Colorado. 
Benson will be a star in this league but right now or he is fully capable of playing in the top six on a playoff team.

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, Broken Ankles said:

By shooting impaired players, you mean guys like Tage and Juri?  His even strength line combinations don’t fit this narrative.  Others include Quinn/Krebbs, Cozens/Quinn, Tage/Tuch and McLeod/Zucker.  The guys mentioned score points.  You don’t see Lafferty/Greenway/Beck until you get to 11 minutes of ice time.  The fact is his ATOI increased last year, but his production in Points per 60 decreased, as did his goals per 60 even though he wasn’t stapled to Greenway and was given ample opportunity to actually score goals.  His shooting percentage is anemic at 9% and I just haven’t seen enough for me to think he is anything other than a third line Defensive winger, until he isn’t.  Which is completely plausible as he’s only 20.

I voted #2 because options were limited, but I was closer to 2 than 1.  I find myself aligned with this statement from Thorny -“all 3 of my first liners are bonafide first liners, not 2 guys who are and 1 who may be because of them.” (You see Thorny, some people do read your $hit)

So let’s slow down on the coronation to first line winger, and see if his offensive game matures this year.  

https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_linecombo.php?select=F&forward=BUF%3A7111%3AZACH%3ABENSON&games=2024-2025%3AR%3A99&period=ALL&situation=EV

I'm as guilty as anyone of letting my posts digress into indictments of Adams and Ruff (and this post will be no different). To the bolded though (Thorny's comments on what his first line would be), a couple of things:

1.) Of course there are wingers better than Benson and of course Benson would be ideally slotted lower in the line-up.  In the context of the Sabres's current roster, he is likely to be a top-six player though. In that regard and context, I think he is going to be good, and he is not high on my list of concerns.  I'm much more concerned about Norris and Kulich filling top-6 centre roles than Benson playing left wing on a line with Thompson or Tuch. 

Which lead's me to:

2.) Please define what a "bonafide first line forward" is, and then list the NHL teams that have 3 of them? I'm not defending Adams's roster: We don't have a #1 centre (maybe we do in Thompson, but the coach can't/won't adjust his system to allow this to be effective); the current 6 roster defenseman and starting goalie are average aged 25 with the oldest being 27; only 8 of our projected 23 player roster have been in an NHL playoff game; etc..  But, it's just not the case that playoff teams have three "bonafide" 1st line players with a spare fourth one on line 2, and then three or 4 bonafide 2nd liners, with 1 or 2 playing on line 3, and so forth.

If the point here is that in this critical off-season, Adams should do more to build a more playoff-likely roster and that if he did so that would more appropriately slot Benson in the middle-six instead of the top-six, well, no argument from me. I'm not sure though, what that has to do with someone having the opinion that Benson can be a good/effective (even "very" good) top-6 player this year. Thompson and Tuch are legit 1st line NHL players and Dahlin is a legit Norris contender, and that hasn't made us a playoff team. A fan thinking that the balance of evidence supports Benson can and/or will be an effective top-6 player this year, doesn't by any extension mean that they also think everything is ok with the roster.

 

Edited 4 hours ago by Archie Lee

[dudacek]

Did we know that Zach Benson ranks 87th in NHL history in points by a teenager? He also ranks 44th all-time in games played by a teenager.

His peers are such a weird list of names. One of his comparables — with 66 points in two teenage years — was Gordie Howe

Number one in points is, unsurprisingly, Gretzky with 301. In games played? Timmy Connolly, 163.

Connolly had 75 points to Benson's 58.

Looking at the past 25 years, there are only 37 players who have played 100 games as a teen. Among them, Benson ranks 25th in points

Here are some interesting two-season teenage comparables:

• Ryan O'Reilly: 55 points
• Jordan Staal: 70 
• Nico Hischier 99
• Tim Stutzle 87
• Alexander Barkov 60
• Juraj Slavkovsky 60

ROR, Stutzle and Barkov took big leaps in year three. Staal and Hischier did not.

The list of 2-season NHL teens is loaded with superstars but also has plenty of Kappo Kakkos, Jeff Skinners and Dave Gagners. Not a lot in there to establish firm trend lines

Edited 4 hours ago by dudacek

[oddoublee]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't see how Benson will have only 18 assists this year. He'll have more because he won't be stuck with shooting impaired players. 

Hope you are right. 

[JohnC]

52 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I'm as guilty as anyone of letting my posts digress into indictments of Adams and Ruff (and this post will be no different). To the bolded though (Thorny's comments on what his first line would be), a couple of things:

1.) Of course there are wingers better than Benson and of course Benson would be ideally slotted lower in the line-up.  In the context of the Sabres's current roster, he is likely to be a top-six player though. In that regard and context, I think he is going to be good, and he is not high on my list of concerns.  I'm much more concerned about Norris and Kulich filling top-6 centre roles than Benson playing left wing on a line with Thompson or Tuch. 

Which lead's me to:

2.) Please define what a "bonafide first line forward" is, and then list the NHL teams that have 3 of them? I'm not defending Adams's roster: We don't have a #1 centre (maybe we do in Thompson, but the coach can't/won't adjust his system to allow this to be effective); the current 6 roster defenseman and starting goalie are average aged 25 with the oldest being 27; only 8 of our projected 23 player roster have been in an NHL playoff game; etc..  But, it's just not the case that playoff teams have three "bonafide" 1st line players with a spare fourth one on line 2, and then three or 4 bonafide 2nd liners, with 1 or 2 playing on line 3, and so forth.

If the point here is that in this critical off-season, Adams should do more to build a more playoff-likely roster and that if he did so that would more appropriately slot Benson in the middle-six instead of the top-six, well, no argument from me. I'm not sure though, what that has to do with someone having the opinion that Benson can be a good/effective (even "very" good) top-6 player this year. Thompson and Tuch are legit 1st line NHL players and Dahlin is a legit Norris contender, and that hasn't made us a playoff team. A fan thinking that the balance of evidence supports Benson can and/or will be an effective top-6 player this year, doesn't by any extension mean that they also think everything is ok with the roster.

 

Sometimes resorting to stats isn't as informative as one would like them to be because players have different assets and roles. However, on how many other teams do you believe that Benson would have been on the first line? Not many, if any. 

I'm a Benson fan and admire how he plays more than what his production was last year. He certainly was rushed to the big league as a young player. But that's a reflection on how the GM went about rebuilding the roster when he took over. When a roster has a dearth of talent it's not surprising that a number of players play higher roles than they are fully prepared to handle. 

Will Benson be on one of the top two lines this season? I believe so. The difference will be that he will be better prepared to genuinely earn that role. (My opinion.)

 

[Broken Ankles]

47 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I'm as guilty as anyone of letting my posts digress into indictments of Adams and Ruff (and this post will be no different). To the bolded though (Thorny's comments on what his first line would be), a couple of things:

1.) Of course there are wingers better than Benson and of course Benson would be ideally slotted lower in the line-up.  In the context of the Sabres's current roster, he is likely to be a top-six player though. In that regard and context, I think he is going to be good, and he is not high on my list of concerns.  I'm much more concerned about Norris and Kulich filling top-6 centre roles than Benson playing left wing on a line with Thompson or Tuch. 

Which lead's me to:

2.) Please define what a "bonafide first line forward" is, and then list the NHL teams that have 3 of them? I'm not defending Adams's roster: We don't have a #1 centre (maybe we do in Thompson, but the coach can't/won't adjust his system to allow this to be effective); the current 6 roster defenseman and starting goalie are average aged 25 with the oldest being 27; only 8 of our projected 23 player roster have been in an NHL playoff game; etc..  But, it's just not the case that playoff teams have three "bonafide" 1st line players with a spare fourth one on line 2, and then three or 4 bonafide 2nd liners, with 1 or 2 playing on line 3, and so forth.

If the point here is that in this critical off-season, Adams should do more to build a more playoff-likely roster and that if he did so that would more appropriately slot Benson in the middle-six instead of the top-six, well, no argument from me. I'm not sure though, what that has to do with someone having the opinion that Benson can be a good/effective (even "very" good) top-6 player this year. Thompson and Tuch are legit 1st line NHL players and Dahlin is a legit Norris contender, and that hasn't made us a playoff team. A fan thinking that the balance of evidence supports Benson can and/or will be an effective top-6 player this year, doesn't by any extension mean that they also think everything is ok with the roster.

 

Tage, Tuch, zuck and Norris are bonafide.  After that, Quinn and Kulich each rank higher of who I think is a top 6.  Based on overall age, experience and scoring ability.  I understand the desire to have someone with a defensive skill set “compliment” the other two players.  Sometimes a player with zero defensive capabilities can complement a line by scoring 40 goals. In a previous post I shared that I went through last years line combinations and zero teams had a top line winger with less than 28 points and 10 goals for an entire season.  It doesn’t meet the standards.  FWIW, Zucker Tage Tuch was my “first line” under a different topic.   I also acknowledged that maybe Benson is middle six and based on his age and with growth could become a “legit top 6”,  but you & LGR are not acknowledging that he played more minutes, with better players and regressed in goals/assists/point per 60.  That’s not deserving of top line.  His size will not prevent him from excelling in the league.  But his lack of scoring and shooting percentage will.
 

If you have Quinn with Norris on Line #2 then I can see Benson supporting in a top six role.  But it’s not my definition of Legit.  YET.  
 

[pi2000]

If your first or second line winger has an NHLe of 30-40 points, you're not a playoff team.

Second line wingers on playoffs teams average around 55-60 points.

Do better.

Edited 3 hours ago by pi2000

[JohnC]

13 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

If your first or second line winger has an NHLe of 30-40 points, you're not a playoff team.

Second line wingers on playoffs teams average around 55-60 points.

Do better.

The issue regarding Benson is not whether his numbers were at a top line level last year. They were not. That doesn't mean that they won't be around the 55-60 pt. range you find acceptable this year. I think they will; many do not. TBD.

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

If your first or second line winger has an NHLe of 30-40 points, you're not a playoff team.

Second line wingers on playoffs teams average around 55-60 points.

Do better.

This is completely false

The 3rd and 4th highest scoring wingers from each eastern playoff team:

• Washington: McMichael 57, wilson 65
• Montreal: Gallagher 38, Laine 33
• Devils: Noesen 41, Palat 28
• Carolina: Roslovic 39, Martinook 36
• Tampa: Guentzel 80, Paul 41
• Toronto: Knies 58, McMann 34
• Florida: Verhaeghe 53, Rodrigues 32
• Ottawa: Giroux 50, Greig 34

 7 of the 8 playoff teams had 2nd line wingers with between 30-40 points.

Half the 2nd line wingers in the playoffs had less than 40 points. Only 4 met your average.

Do better. 

[Archie Lee]

42 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Tage, Tuch, zuck and Norris are bonafide.  After that, Quinn and Kulich each rank higher of who I think is a top 6.  Based on overall age, experience and scoring ability.  I understand the desire to have someone with a defensive skill set “compliment” the other two players.  Sometimes a player with zero defensive capabilities can complement a line by scoring 40 goals. In a previous post I shared that I went through last years line combinations and zero teams had a top line winger with less than 28 points and 10 goals for an entire season.  It doesn’t meet the standards.  FWIW, Zucker Tage Tuch was my “first line” under a different topic.   I also acknowledged that maybe Benson is middle six and based on his age and with growth could become a “legit top 6”,  but you & LGR are not acknowledging that he played more minutes, with better players and regressed in goals/assists/point per 60.  That’s not deserving of top line.  His size will not prevent him from excelling in the league.  But his lack of scoring and shooting percentage will.
 

If you have Quinn with Norris on Line #2 then I can see Benson supporting in a top six role.  But it’s not my definition of Legit.  YET.  
 

Just for clarity, are you saying Zucker and Norris are bonafide first line forwards or top-6? I would not consider either, nor Benson, to be a "bonafide first-line" forward. A healthy Norris, perhaps, has a chance to be; we really don't know what an 80 game healthy Norris is.  Last year's Zucker, I think, can certainly be a top-6 player on a playoff team and could play on the first line of a playoff team in the right set of circumstances, but I don't think he's anyone's idea of a legit/bonafide first-line player.  But, I think we really just we have different views of what Benson is going to be this year (not what he has been). I think his scoring will improve to 40 points at minimum and he will prove to be a legit, effective, top-6 winger this year.  That's just my projection though; I acknowledge I could be very wrong.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Broken Ankles said:

Tage, Tuch, zuck and Norris are bonafide.  After that, Quinn and Kulich each rank higher of who I think is a top 6.  Based on overall age, experience and scoring ability.  I understand the desire to have someone with a defensive skill set “compliment” the other two players.  Sometimes a player with zero defensive capabilities can complement a line by scoring 40 goals. In a previous post I shared that I went through last years line combinations and zero teams had a top line winger with less than 28 points and 10 goals for an entire season.  It doesn’t meet the standards.  FWIW, Zucker Tage Tuch was my “first line” under a different topic.   I also acknowledged that maybe Benson is middle six and based on his age and with growth could become a “legit top 6”,  but you & LGR are not acknowledging that he played more minutes, with better players and regressed in goals/assists/point per 60.  That’s not deserving of top line.  His size will not prevent him from excelling in the league.  But his lack of scoring and shooting percentage will.
 

If you have Quinn with Norris on Line #2 then I can see Benson supporting in a top six role.  But it’s not my definition of Legit.  YET.  
 

Just so everyone knows...

He went down by .1 g/60 and .1a/60

He also went to .8 from .6 in primary A/60 so sure, you're right. He went down a whopping 0.1 

[Broken Ankles]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Just so everyone knows...

He went down by .1 g/60 and .1a/60

He also went to .8 from .6 in primary A/60 so sure, you're right. He went down a whopping 0.1 

…..With better players - throughout the season, which you fail to acknowledge.  Your take that his points will increase by playing on the first line is based on nothing.  It’s a fallacy and wishful thinking.  Could they increase?  Maybe?  But it’s more probable than not Zucker is a better option to start the season. Please don’t force us to create a Concept of Benson. 

[pi2000]

50 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This is completely false

The 3rd and 4th highest scoring wingers from each eastern playoff team:

• Washington: McMichael 57, wilson 65
• Montreal: Gallagher 38, Laine 33
• Devils: Noesen 41, Palat 28
• Carolina: Roslovic 39, Martinook 36
• Tampa: Guentzel 80, Paul 41
• Toronto: Knies 58, McMann 34
• Florida: Verhaeghe 53, Rodrigues 32
• Ottawa: Giroux 50, Greig 34

 7 of the 8 playoff teams had 2nd line wingers with between 30-40 points.

Half the 2nd line wingers in the playoffs had less than 40 points. Only 4 met your average.

Do better. 

You're cherry picking.

If we look at all recent NHL playoff teams, a second-line winger is usually producing in the ballpark of:

55–60 points over an 82-game season.

A 35-point NHLe (like Benson) projects slightly below a typical top-six winger on a playoff team.

[oddoublee]

1 minute ago, pi2000 said:

You're cherry picking.

If we look at all recent NHL playoff teams, a second-line winger is usually producing in the ballpark of:

55–60 points over an 82-game season.

A 35-point NHLe (like Benson) projects slightly below a typical top-six winger on a playoff team.

Well, to be fair, Zach Benson actually needs to get 35 points still. I'm predicting that happens in 26-27

[Broken Ankles]

27 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Just for clarity, are you saying Zucker and Norris are bonafide first line forwards or top-6? I would not consider either, nor Benson, to be a "bonafide first-line" forward. A healthy Norris, perhaps, has a chance to be; we really don't know what an 80 game healthy Norris is.  Last year's Zucker, I think, can certainly be a top-6 player on a playoff team and could play on the first line of a playoff team in the right set of circumstances, but I don't think he's anyone's idea of a legit/bonafide first-line player.  But, I think we really just we have different views of what Benson is going to be this year (not what he has been). I think his scoring will improve to 40 points at minimum and he will prove to be a legit, effective, top-6 winger this year.  That's just my projection though; I acknowledge I could be very wrong.

Tage and Tuch are bonefide top line players.  Zuck and Norris are legit top 6.

Zucker is an option on #1 based on available choices.  

Quinn, Kulich and Benson are not legit top 6 but I rank them in that order as options based on arguments provided before.  Quinn and Kulich have shown better acumen at scoring.  

We all can be wrong about our projections.  Kevyn was wrong keeping him as a top 13 player two years ago, and that’s his f$&king job.  I’m using history to determine where he is slotted.  

[Archie Lee]

1 minute ago, Broken Ankles said:

Tage and Tuch are bonefide top line players.  Zuck and Norris are legit top 6.

Zucker is an option on #1 based on available choices.  

Quinn, Kulich and Benson are not legit top 6 but I rank them in that order as options based on arguments provided before.  Quinn and Kulich have shown better acumen at scoring.  

We all can be wrong about our projections.  Kevyn was wrong keeping him as a top 13 player two years ago, and that’s his f$&king job.  I’m using history to determine where he is slotted.  

We just have different views on these players.  I think Benson is a better all around player than Quinn or Kulich already.  Indeed, when I look at our forward group, I think that Quinn and Kulich are the obvious positions where improvement could be made via trade.  I would move them for Rust and Rakell without hesitation, if such a trade was available. 

Agreed though, that Benson should not have been in the NHL two seasons ago, not because he was ruined or because he was unable to compete at the NHL level, but because there was just no good reason to keep an 18 year old, 13th OA pick on the roster of a team with $10million+ in cap space. That was negligence on Adams's part.

[LGR4GM]

53 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

…..With better players - throughout the season, which you fail to acknowledge.  Your take that his points will increase by playing on the first line is based on nothing.  It’s a fallacy and wishful thinking.  Could they increase?  Maybe?  But it’s more probable than not Zucker is a better option to start the season. Please don’t force us to create a Concept of Benson. 

No he didn't. He got a healthy dose of ***** including Cozens. Half his time is with guys with the yips.

[LGR4GM]

I did this once but tomorrow, I'll pull the numbers for toi. Again if Zach Benson were 6'3" none of you would say anything. If he were a rookie this year, you'd be excited. It's because he's 5'10" and played last yr at 19.

47 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

You're cherry picking.

If we look at all recent NHL playoff teams, a second-line winger is usually producing in the ballpark of:

55–60 points over an 82-game season.

A 35-point NHLe (like Benson) projects slightly below a typical top-six winger on a playoff team.

Show you're work then. Give us the last 3 years. 

[oddoublee]

This is an interesting thread. It's boiled down to: everyone here is high on Benson. It's a matter of whether or not you think he is top 6 this year, next year or the year after.