Making up for the loss of scoring from JJP (and Cozens among others).

[JohnC]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Doan and Kesselring ranked 1st and 5th respectively on Utah in terms of Corsi at 58% and 54%

They were 7th and 3rd in ESGF% at 53.7% and 56.5%

And they ranked 1st and 7th in terms of xG% at 60.6% and 53.3%

Neither player was getting the most mportant minutes, but they were clearly winning the battles in the matchups they were seeing.

An argument can be made that in the JJP trade we sent out the best player in the exchange. On the other hand, a good argument can be made that the trade made this a better roster by addressing other areas of need.

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

An argument can be made that in the JJP trade we sent out the best player in the exchange. On the other hand, a good argument can be made that the trade made this a better roster by addressing other areas of need.

Link? 

[dudacek]

38 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think they are almost entirely focused on cutting their goals against significantly and transforming from a -20 team goal-differential team to a +20 team, which almost certainly will earn them a playoff spot.

Analytically speaking, and superficially at 5 on5:

Norris for Cozens appears a wash

Doan for Peterka a small gain

Danforth for Lafferty a small gain

Kesselring for Jokiharju a small gain

Timmins for Clifton a significant gain

It kinda follows the Athletic analytics model: they got incrementally better overall, but not enough to make up the gap needed.

 

[dudacek]

Now nobody actually thinks the team improved by swapping Peterka for Doan and most of us could get invested in Cozens for Norris and Jokiharju for Kesselring no matter what the analytics say, but that's fancystats for you. 

[dudacek]

Analytically speaking the Sabres best hope might be this:

• Owen Power career 51.9% Corsi despite playing with a rotating cast of bad partners over his first three NHL seasons
• Jack Quinn significant drop-off across the board in all three categories after being a positive player in all three over his first two seasons.
• Mattias Samuelsson, see Jack Quinn

Along with Dylan Cozens, these seemed to be the skaters who suffered the most from the coaching change and the players with the most analytical potential to bounce back

 

[JohnC]

21 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Link? 

It's an opinion and doesn't come from a link. The returning defenseman hopefully improved the unit and we got a player who plays hard and two-way game. If the unhappy player didn't want to be here, then so be it. I wish the departed player the best and am happy to move on from his unhappiness. The last thing that this team needs is an unhappy player in a constant battle with a coach who isn't satisfied with his all-around game. 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I think it's broader than that.

They've added Norris, Doan and Kesselring and they expect growth from Quinn, Benson and Kulich. They also want to score more on the power play. Combined, they think those factors should at least mitigate things.

But I think that's an afterthought in terms of off-season strategy.

I think they are almost entirely focused on cutting their goals against significantly and transforming from a -20 team goal-differential team to a +20 team, which almost certainly will earn them a playoff spot.

and to do that they what? Added Kesselring? A lot on those shoulders then. 

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

and to do that they what? Added Kesselring? A lot on those shoulders then. 

Speaking only in terms of their play defensively, the Sabres seem to believe:

• Norris > Cozens
• Doan > Peterka
• Danforth > Lafferty
• Kesselring > Jokiharju
• Timmins > Clifton

They also think Lyon is more capable of supporting/challenging UPL than Reimer was because age limited Reimer's workload.

If you think that's basically boils down to Kesselring, I guess we'll see.

[pi2000]

7 hours ago, JohnC said:

The player made it abundantly clear to the organization that he didn’t want to be here. He wasn’t willing to sign an extension and was willing to ride out his contract another year to be an UFA. So he got dealt for a reasonable return. And it should be noted that shortly after the trade he quickly signed a new deal with Utah. I’m more than satisfied with the trade. 

He was an RFA without a contract, he couldn't become an UFA for 4 more years (7 seasons or 27 years old). 

Who cares if he wanted to be here... give him a fair offer, he can sign or sit out, don't trade him at a loss just because he doesn't want to be here. 

The entire point of RFA status is to protect the team that drafted and developed the player.    

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

Speaking only in terms of their play defensively, the Sabres seem to believe:

• Norris > Cozens
• Doan > Peterka
• Danforth > Lafferty
• Kesselring > Jokiharju
• Timmins > Clifton

They also think Lyon is more capable of supporting/challenging UPL than Reimer was because age limited Reimer's workload.

If you think that's basically boils down to Kesselring, I guess we'll see.

Well, idk enough about Danforth to say he's better or worse than Lafferty but I don't think Timmins is better than Clifton. Maybe he is, we shall see, but I don't think so. Norris to Cozens??? That is an interesting one. Don't think Norris is known for his defense but we all felt let down by Cozens so again, we shall see. Kesselring and Doan better defensively but not offensively so how does that shake out? again, idk. 

The goalie. Now I find it interesting that one of our main competitors, Detroit, made a deal for a goalie (who is suspect in many ways) because they weren't happy with the goalie they had who we are lauding as some sort of improvement/answer. Does that not make you pause and wonder? It certainly doesn't give me optimism. 

[JohnC]

7 hours ago, pi2000 said:

He was an RFA without a contract, he couldn't become an UFA for 4 more years (7 seasons or 27 years old). 

Who cares if he wanted to be here... give him a fair offer, he can sign or sit out, don't trade him at a loss just because he doesn't want to be here. 

The entire point of RFA status is to protect the team that drafted and developed the player.    

Do you know who else does’t want to deal with an openly unhappy teammate? His teammates. Do you think the coaches will find a disgruntled player more receptive to their coaching? It was already reported that he had difficulty dealing with Ruff’s hard style of coaching.

If Kesserling turns out to be a suitable partner for Power and Doan adds an element of grit to the lineup, then this trade will work out for both teams. 
 

I didn’t want him to be traded.  However, he did. So goodbye to him and welcome to the new players who are happy to be here. 

 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by JohnC

[JohnC]

14 hours ago, dudacek said:

Now nobody actually thinks the team improved by swapping Peterka for Doan and most of us could get invested in Cozens for Norris and Jokiharju for Kesselring no matter what the analytics say, but that's fancystats for you. 

I can make the case that in the Peterka trade that our roster/team got better. If Kesserling becomes a good pairing for Power and Doan adds an element of grit and responsible two-way play to a lineup that needs an improved defensive game, then those player changes will better round out our roster. And if you consider that both Quinn and Benson should be able to improve their offensive numbers to offset JJP’s offensive numbers, then the deal makes sense for us.

In order to get something, you have to give up something. And that’s how I view this trade. On initial appearance it seems to have worked out for each of the trading partners. TBD.

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, JohnC said:

I can make the case that in the Peterka trade that our roster/team got better. If Kesserling becomes a good pairing for Power and Doan adds an element of grit and responsible two-way play to a lineup that needs an improved defensive game, then those player changes will better round out our roster. And if you consider that both Quinn and Benson should be able to improve their offensive numbers to offset JJP’s offensive numbers, then the deal makes sense for us.

In order to get something, you have to give up something. And that’s how I view this trade. On initial appearance it seems to have worked out for each of the trading partners. TBD.

I was very much in favour of trading the reality of Peterka for the concept of Kesselring and Doan.

The concept of Peterka for (what might be) the reality of of Kesselring and Doan is another story.

[JohnC]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I was very much in favour of trading the reality of Peterka for the concept of Kesselring and Doan.

The concept of Peterka for (what might be) the reality of of Kesselring and Doan is another story.

We don’t know for sure what the full reality of their Sabre play will be. That’s for sure. However, you deal with the hand you are dealt with and make the best of it. I have been a critic of KA. In this case, I believe he handled this situation well.

Edited 2 hours ago by JohnC

[...]

18 hours ago, dudacek said:

Now nobody actually thinks the team improved by swapping Peterka for Doan and most of us could get invested in Cozens for Norris and Jokiharju for Kesselring no matter what the analytics say, but that's fancystats for you.