Chad D: expect a Byram trade at or around the draft

[Thorny]

3 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

1) No one is really expecting the Cup. Failure is missing the playoffs for 15 years in a row. 

2) Folks want this to be an entertaining part of the year. When your regular season is habitually disappointing, it is common for the off-season to be a time of hope. Problem is when the off-season moves are predictably underwhelming, and the accountability for those making decisions appears close to non-existent.

I'd say the general consensus is the team on balance may be slightly better or the same as last year, barring further changes, which would mostly be provided by trade. Everyone is hoping, but the majority has lost patience. I am with the majority here. I'd feel better about things if the goalie situation was stronger. If someone steps up, that would palpably increase the chances of breaking the historic record of playoff absence.

Lumping on the the bold here (and touching on 1 at the same time), there’s a level of disingenuousness in “we don’t have to win a cup to enjoy it”’ as you point out in that no one is labelling that as their bar for enjoyment. As you allude to with the bold, it IS about enjoying the experience: one of the most negative aspects of never making the playoffs is actually that our *regular seasons* have no meaning. We haven’t been able to enjoy the league and feel a part of it for so long because we’ve realized our regular seasons are DOA by Canadian thanksgiving

[GrassValleyGreg]

Today at 5 pm is an important deadline because players must file for arbitration by then. However, filing removes their ability to sign an offer sheet. 

All eligible players have three options:
1) Agree to an offer sheet before 5 pm today 
2) Decline arbitration and wait for an offer sheet, which gives up leverage
3) File for arbitration and give up possibility of an offer sheet

 

From AFP Analytics (not embedding for me)

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, GrassValleyGreg said:

Today at 5 pm is an important deadline because players must file for arbitration by then. However, filing removes their ability to sign an offer sheet. 

All eligible players have three options:
1) Agree to an offer sheet before 5 pm today 
2) Decline arbitration and wait for an offer sheet, which gives up leverage
3) File for arbitration and give up possibility of an offer sheet

 

From AFP Analytics (not embedding for me)

Did not realize this.

Do we know if the Sabres face the same deadline to take Bo to arbitration?

And does that also remove the threat of an offer sheet?

[GrassValleyGreg]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

Did not realize this.

Do we know if the Sabres face the same deadline to take Bo to arbitration?

And does that also remove the threat of an offer sheet?

Team deadline is tomorrow at 5pm but player will get to choose 1 or 2 year deal.

My read on Bo not choosing arbitration is that the offer sheet is now the most likely outcome. He would not have given Sabres this non player arb leverage otherwise.

[dudacek]

22 minutes ago, GrassValleyGreg said:

Team deadline is tomorrow at 5pm but player will get to choose 1 or 2 year deal.

My read on Bo not choosing arbitration is that the offer sheet is now the most likely outcome. He would not have given Sabres this non player arb leverage otherwise.

Can he still sign an offer sheet after the Sabres choose arbitration?

Because I wonder if his camp is actually angling Adams towards arbitration deliberately because they aren’t getting an offer sheet.

Bear with me: the goal of Byram’s camp is to get him a high-dollar long-term deal in a place of Bo’s choosing where he can be “the guy”.

Plan A

Tell the Sabres you aren’t signing a long term deal and try to orchestrate a deal that matches the above goal. For now, that still includes the possibility of an offer sheet and the risk the Sabres will match.

Plan B

Failing that, manipulate the Sabres into paying Bo maximum cash for minimum term that either walks him directly into unrestricted free agency 2 years from now, or puts him in the driver’s seat for arranging a trade next summer to the team of his choice, like Matthew Tkachuk.

Having the Sabres file for arbitration now does exactly that.

Edited 20 hours ago by dudacek

[Trettioåtta]

Did Chad specify which draft he was talking about? Maybe he meant Bo will be traded at or around the 2026 NHL draft

[Wyldnwoody44]

17 minutes ago, Trettioåtta said:

Did Chad specify which draft he was talking about? Maybe he meant Bo will be traded at or around the 2026 NHL draft

I was just thinking this.... How bout that Chad? ... Sometimes the rumor mill gets to be just too much after the cup is won. 

[jahnyc]

To be fair, I have to assume that the Sabres had every intention of trading Byram before or at the draft.  Would have made sense to do it at that time for planning purposes for the draft and free agency.  I think the process with Byram has gone a bit sideways for them.

[krakensabr56390]

23 minutes ago, jahnyc said:

To be fair, I have to assume that the Sabres had every intention of trading Byram before or at the draft.  Would have made sense to do it at that time for planning purposes for the draft and free agency.  I think the process with Byram has gone a bit sideways for them.

Eh I think they can afford to linger on this trade because the player is willing it to sign back even for a couple years in Buffalo.

Peterka refused to sign here in any capacity it seems. The question is whether they could’ve gotten more at the trade deadline… But that sort of a dicey proposition. It’s funny that people are saying the Sabres  had complete control that situation because they did have complete control of his rights, but they could not let him go into the season unsigned and tank the first part of the season.

[Broken Ankles]

Hey Chad.  

[GrassValleyGreg]

17 hours ago, dudacek said:

Can he still sign an offer sheet after the Sabres choose arbitration?

Because I wonder if his camp is actually angling Adams towards arbitration deliberately because they aren’t getting an offer sheet.

Bear with me: the goal of Byram’s camp is to get him a high-dollar long-term deal in a place of Bo’s choosing where he can be “the guy”.

Plan A

Tell the Sabres you aren’t signing a long term deal and try to orchestrate a deal that matches the above goal. For now, that still includes the possibility of an offer sheet and the risk the Sabres will match.

Plan B

Failing that, manipulate the Sabres into paying Bo maximum cash for minimum term that either walks him directly into unrestricted free agency 2 years from now, or puts him in the driver’s seat for arranging a trade next summer to the team of his choice, like Matthew Tkachuk.

Having the Sabres file for arbitration now does exactly that.

No offer sheet if team arbitration is chosen. And the ability for the player to pick a two year deal and walk to UFA is pretty much a poison pill. The sense is KA will not take this to arb, which would make your Plan B moot.

It also sounds like Bo has no problem being a Sabre - he just wants to be paid. That is the North Star driving all of this, meaning your Plan A would be flawed.

Feels like we’re in the same place we have been with trade and offer sheet being the two most likely outcomes. A new potential outcome that has emerged if/when both refuse arbitration is an ugly hold out a la Swayman.

What is interesting to think about is what could be holding up the trade. It could very well be Bo and his agent’s stubborn negotiating for a long term, “$9 mill AAV” deal with the accepting team. It could be convincing a vet to drop their NTC/MNTC (I keep coming back to Justin Faulk). Either way, there are certainly other factors that could be at play outside of teams just agreeing on the players involved. 

 

 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, GrassValleyGreg said:

No offer sheet if team arbitration is chosen. And the ability for the player to pick a two year deal and walk to UFA is pretty much a poison pill. The sense is KA will not take this to arb, which would make your Plan B moot.

It also sounds like Bo has no problem being a Sabre - he just wants to be paid. That is the North Star driving all of this, meaning your Plan A would be flawed.

Feels like we’re in the same place we have been with trade and offer sheet being the two most likely outcomes. A new potential outcome that has emerged if/when both refuse arbitration is an ugly hold out a la Swayman.

What is interesting to think about is what could be holding up the trade. It could very well be Bo and his agent’s stubborn negotiating for a long term, “$9 mill AAV” deal with the accepting team. It could be convincing a vet to drop their NTC/MNTC (I keep coming back to Justin Faulk). Either way, there are certainly other factors that could be at play outside of teams just agreeing on the players involved. 

 

 

 

That makes sense if your primary goal is to move the player, or lock him up long-term.

Kevyn Adams is hanging on to his job by his fingernails and hasn't found a Byram trade that he thinks makes the team better in 2 months of trying.

There's incentive for him to lock Byram in to arbitration, back fill behind him with whatever cap is left over and try make the playoffs, especially if Byram has made it clear he's not signing a long-term deal with Buffalo.

If he's wrong, the poison pill will be something for the next GM to deal with.

Not filing for arbitration tells me Kev still thinks he can make a trade, or sign Byram to term.

Edited 1 hour ago by dudacek

[Dr. Who]

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

That makes sense if your primary goal is to move the player, or lock him up long-term.

Kevyn Adams is hanging on to his job by his fingernails and hasn't found a Byram trade that he thinks makes the team better in 2 months of trying.

There's incentive for him to lock Byram in to arbitration, back fill behind him with whatever cap is left over and try make the playoffs, especially if Byram has made it clear he's not signing a long-term deal with Buffalo.

If he's wrong, the poison pill will be something for the next GM to deal with.

Not filing for arbitration tells me Kev still thinks he can make a trade, or sign Byram to term.

Kev thinking makes me nervous. Your inference is likely correct, though. 

Edited 1 hour ago by Dr. Who

[sabremike]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Kev thinking makes me nervous. Your inference is likely correct, though.