Chad D: expect a Byram trade at or around the draft

[jahnyc]

Sabres should re-sign Byram to a bridge deal.  At least one area, the defense, will be stronger than last season with the other moves made.  Unfortunately, this front office, led by Adams, is so overtly intentional that they will end up trading Byram even if the return is not what it should be.

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Agree with pretty much all of this.

Byram is probably better than any other option available and maybe that’s why Adams hasn’t moved him.

Sign him and use the next two years to try to change his mind about walking to free agency.

Use free agency or trade other assets to add another forward.

Interestingly, Kesselring played 701toi with Ian Cole at 5v5. He managed a 53.53cf%, 52.85xgf%, and 58.37hdcf%

Without him (so everyone else) he played 608toi with 54.35cf%, 55.64xgf%, and 54.31hdcf% 

Me thinks we do not value Kesselring as much as we probably should. Or Columbus was a lot worse than Utah which I am not sure I believe. 

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I don't think we can make the money work

Voronkov is an RFA looking for 3 to 5mil

Provorov at 7.5mil

The big thing is, we re-sign Byram and our offense is as is; there won't be any fixes because we all know the team isn't going to sign a splash offensive UFA. 

I really like this Voronkov idea. How do we get that guy?

[Taro T]

9 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I don't think we can make the money work

Voronkov is an RFA looking for 3 to 5mil

Provorov at 7.5mil

The big thing is, we re-sign Byram and our offense is as is; there won't be any fixes because we all know the team isn't going to sign a splash offensive UFA. 

Not necessarily.  They still have a lot of prospects and will still have cap space and MAYBE somebody sees Samuelsson's issues as being all Sabre issue related and if somebody could get him onto the right team then they could wash that Sabre stink right off him.  Plus, and don't want to send him out the door after just getting him, but maybe Kesselring peaks somebody's interest.  (There's still be a hole in the top 4, but trading Byram creates that hole too.)  People forget Steve Reinprecht was a Sabre briefly the summer that Chris Drury became a Sabre.

Tuch's extension doesn't hit until next off-season.  Worry about that year next summer.

[dudacek]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Interestingly, Kesselring played 701toi with Ian Cole at 5v5. He managed a 53.53cf%, 52.85xgf%, and 58.37hdcf%

Without him (so everyone else) he played 608toi with 54.35cf%, 55.64xgf%, and 54.31hdcf% 

Me thinks we do not value Kesselring as much as we probably should. Or Columbus was a lot worse than Utah which I am not sure I believe. 

@That Aud Smell’s video clip dropped me down the rabbit hole of when we signed Sam Ventura and I had dreams we were going to moneypuck our way to success.

Other than maybe Ryan McLeod, we haven’t seen it.

Was our analytics team not that good? Were they not being listened to? 

Trading 2nd round picks for Conor Timmins to dump Conor Clifton smacks of moneypuck.

Kesselring and Doan for Peterka smacks of moneypuck.

But the Buffalo Sabres history under Kevyn Adams smacks of anything but being the smartest man in the room.

Edited 5 hours ago by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

@That Aud Smell’s video clip dropped me down the rabbit hole of when we signed Sam Ventura and I had dreams we were going to moneypuck our way to success.

Other than maybe Ryan McLeod, we haven’t seen it.

Were they that good? Were they not being listened to? 

Trading 2nd round picks for Conor Timmins to dump Conor Clifton smacks of moneypuck.

Kesselring and Doan for Peterka smacks of moneypuck.

But the Buffalo Sabres history under Kevyn Adams smacks of anything but being the smartest man in the room.

Did the success of McLeod and the addition of Ruff open the door to give Ventura and Karmanos mor cache in the overall conversations around the team? 

I keep wondering if McLeod being good really opened up Adams to the idea that analytics does work and it doesn't have to be all his internal feels. 

[Crusader1969]

Are the Sabres better off with Byram on the top pair and Jack Quinn in the top 6

OR are they better off with Samuelsson or Timmins on the top pair and a legit top 6 winger? 
I'll probably be in the minority but I prefer Byram and Quinn option 

Hopefully Jack has a bounce back year.  

[CTJoe]

16 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I really like this Voronkov idea. How do we get that guy?

Byram.  CLB is losing Proporov so needs a D.  They also don't have cap issues.

[That Aud Smell]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

@That Aud Smell’s video clip dropped me down the rabbit hole of when we signed Sam Ventura and I had dreams we were going to moneypuck our way to success.

Other than maybe Ryan McLeod, we haven’t seen it.

Were they that good? Were they not being listened to? 

Trading 2nd round picks for Conor Timmins to dump Conor Clifton smacks of moneypuck.

Kesselring and Doan for Peterka smacks of moneypuck.

But the Buffalo Sabres history under Kevyn Adams smacks of anything but being the smartest man in the room.

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Did the success of McLeod and the addition of Ruff open the door to give Ventura and Karmanos mor cache in the overall conversations around the team? 

I keep wondering if McLeod being good really opened up Adams to the idea that analytics does work and it doesn't have to be all his internal feels. 

I can well picture Pegula as one of the old school scouts sitting around that war room table in Moneyball.

[CTJoe]

1 minute ago, Crusader1969 said:

Are the Sabres better off with Byram on the top pair and Jack Quinn in the top 6

OR are they better off with Samuelsson or Timmins on the top pair and a legit top 6 winger? 
I'll probably be in the minority but I prefer Byram and Quinn option 

Hopefully Jack has a bounce back year.  

I think Byram is as good as gone.  Adams never would talk about "possibly" trading a player and not trade him.  It may take a day or so after UFA opens as teams who didn't get the UFA dman that they wanted might reach out to Adams. Unfortunately there's Adams excuse for not being active in UFA right away, other than at Goalie.  He won't sign an UFA dman or forward not knowing if Byram is going to be traded (and for whom)?  We'll see his normal "rochester UFA signings)

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, CTJoe said:

I think Byram is as good as gone.  Adams never would talk about "possibly" trading a player and not trade him.  It may take a day or so after UFA opens as teams who didn't get the UFA dman that they wanted might reach out to Adams. Unfortunately there's Adams excuse for not being active in UFA right away, other than at Goalie.  He won't sign an UFA dman or forward not knowing if Byram is going to be traded (and for whom)?  We'll see his normal "rochester UFA signings)

Yep.  Remember, the same Kevyn Adams that refused to answer a direct question about whether JJ Peterka asked for a trade has said he's open to offers on Byram.

[DarthEbriate]

3 minutes ago, CTJoe said:

I think Byram is as good as gone.  Adams never would talk about "possibly" trading a player and not trade him.  It may take a day or so after UFA opens as teams who didn't get the UFA dman that they wanted might reach out to Adams. Unfortunately there's Adams excuse for not being active in UFA right away, other than at Goalie.  He won't sign an UFA dman or forward not knowing if Byram is going to be traded (and for whom)?  We'll see his normal "rochester UFA signings)

Technically, the Rochester UFA signings would be Karmanos doing what's best for his AHL roster. For example, signing Dunne last summer. Those signings can be more-or-less independent -- Karmanos just has to operate within the allotted budget for the Amerks.

[CTJoe]

58 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Better yet... 

trade Byram for Provorov's rights and Voronkov and a 2026 2nd. Make it on the condition Prov signs a 5yr 7mil contract extension. It is less than he would get with UFA but maybe if you get exclusive rights to sign him he feels really wanted and would want to come play with Voronkov and Dahlin. 

I don't love Provorov tbh. He gets hard minutes and is just okayish at them. He's got a ton of turnover as well but they aren't tracked well. Provorov played 356 minutes with Werenski and was at 52.77% corsi and 51.63%xGF. 

Ivan played 1178 minutes with everyone else and was 46.38cf% and 44.84xgf% at 5v5. These numbers are very similar to Byram away from Dahlin. 

Why not just pay Byram 7x5yrs and keep him with Dahlin. He is the same thing with probably more upside. 

 

Prob too late for Prov rights as UFA basically starts in 5 1/2 hours.  prov also reminds me too much of Risto - not enough hockey IQ

[dudacek]

I think the Byram situation is pretty clear, at least from Adams perspective:

Bo has made it clear to Adams that he doesn’t “want out” now and he’s going to give him everything he has for as long as he’s here, but he is not currently interested in a long-term deal with the Sabres because he wants an opportunity for a more significant role.

Adams believes him and has told him he will shop him to see if there is a deal to be made with a team that will give him that opportunity. But he has also said he’s only going to pull the trigger if there is a deal that makes the Sabres better.

If the deal materializes, he gets moved. If not, they’ll negotiate a short-term deal.

No idea if Adams has read Byram correctly, or how desperately he wants to trade him.

But his words indicate he feels a degree of comfort with the situation, and both intends to trade him and is confident that a trade is there to be made.

Edited 4 hours ago by dudacek

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Are we? Dylan Cozens shot at 7.9% last year and Josh Norris shoots at 18.1% for his career average. Jiri Kulich shot at 11.2 but only played 62 games. Zach Benson shot at 8.3% 

I get it, Peterka's 27g is something ppl are worried about replacing but flipping Cozens for Norris probably replaces half of them straight up. Norris getting 24g compared to Cozens 11 doesn't seem far fetched. That leaves about 13g between Kulich, Benson, Quinn, and Doan. And that's if we are that worried about last years goal total. 

I hate agreeing with Adams, but I am just not convinced this team actually has lost that much scoring. 

Norris averages 15 goals a season since entering into the league. That would be the best place to start for a projection removed of bias one way or the other. Is the best way to build a team making all your choices based on  a collection of scenarios you are hoping for the best case result in or does it make most sense to configure based on the most statistically likely result considering missing playoffs isn’t an option?

Cozens has averaged 16.4. Cozens also the better assist producer which of course add to total goals. I’m not sure we can declare the offensive output much more than a wash unless we want to give Norris the added benefit of assumed health rather than going with his actual average. 

to say Norris not only outproduces Cozens but does so to tune of having a whole bunch extra to replace half the total of Peterka seems egregious, not to mention the fact JJ led our team in assists. There’s some massive Monday stretching going on here 

the sabres were 23rd in goals 2 seasons ago - that’s just as likely to be reflective of what to expect as last year. We were front runners last year, a lot of those goals were empty calories as Darth expertly laid out. Then you add in loss of Peterka and the fact there’s no cap on goals, our offence looks woefully short 

Edited 4 hours ago by Thorny

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

@That Aud Smell’s video clip dropped me down the rabbit hole of when we signed Sam Ventura and I had dreams we were going to moneypuck our way to success.

Other than maybe Ryan McLeod, we haven’t seen it.

Was our analytics team not that good? Were they not being listened to? 

Trading 2nd round picks for Conor Timmins to dump Conor Clifton smacks of moneypuck.

Kesselring and Doan for Peterka smacks of moneypuck.

But the Buffalo Sabres history under Kevyn Adams smacks of anything but being the smartest man in the room.

You’ve been talking about money puck for 5 years lol 

It’s not what’s happening

On 12/20/2017 at 1:21 PM, dudacek said:

Brought some stability to the second pair, stood up for his teammates with a pair of fights, and been a breath of fresh air in a dressing room that desperately needed it, while helping the team to its most successful run of the season.

 

Doesn’t matter what you or I think of him, I think it’s pretty clear Housley likes him.

 

I’d also be surprised if the hit the team will take on the cap by buying him out, added to the cost of acquiring an upgrade will make sense to a Botterill’s Moneypuck way of thinking. Better off overpaying him by a million or two for the role he plays.

Not even when Botterill did it 

I wish, man, I wish 

Edited 4 hours ago by Thorny

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

You’ve been talking about money puck for 5 years lol 

It’s not what’s happening

Pretty sure I stopped talking about it 2 years ago. 😁
 

That was kinda my point.

Edited 4 hours ago by dudacek

[Thorny]

Just now, dudacek said:

Pretty sure I stopped talking about it 2 years ago. 😁

I was wrong yes it was 8 years ago and stopped lol. But I see it trying to come back 

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Norris averages 15 goals a season since entering into the league. That would be the best place to start for a projection removed of bias one way or the other. Cozens has averaged 16.4. Cozens also the better assist producer which of course add to total goals. I’m not sure we can declare the offensive output much more than a wash unless we want to give Norris the added benefit of assumed health rather than going with his actual average. 

to say Norris not only outproduces Norris but does so to tune of having a whole bunch extra to replace half the total of Peterka seems egregious, not to mention the fact JJ led our team in assists. There’s so massive Monday stretching going on here 

JJ Peterka had 23 secondary assists. He had empty calorie assists, because he played with Tage Thompson most of the year. In fact Peterka had only 4 more primary assists than Zach Benson. What I am getting at is I don't think JJs assists are making up the difference here. 

There is no massive monday stretching at all. In fact I even showed my work. Josh Norris 1.1g/60, Dylan Cozens 0.9g/60. Further Cozens has eclipsed your goal average exactly 2 times. Once when he had 18 (wow) and then the outlier year where he shot 14.7% which is almost 5% over his career average. You wanna dismiss my arguments that is fine, but you wanna talk monday morning stretching, well you just did the same thing by averaging in a 31g year for a guy who hasn't even made it to 20g since. I used his 11g because that is how many Cozens contributed to Buffalo this past season. Norris has 3 20g seasons and you are right, he gets injured which is an issue. However, I think the shoulder injury which robbed him of his 23yr old season and lingered into his 24yr old season before being corrected is now corrected and I do have some faith he can get 70games in. If he does that, getting 24g (seems pretty low when he had 20 last year in 56 games) is very reasonable. Again, I showed my work so you little dismissive comment is notwithstanding. 

Cozens verse Norris in assists is something interesting but that wasn't the OG point. It was that regurgitated line "we have to replace 27g from Peterka!" when in reality we probably have to replace 10g and in reality reality we need to drastically reduce goals against. 

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

JJ Peterka had 23 secondary assists. He had empty calorie assists, because he played with Tage Thompson most of the year. In fact Peterka had only 4 more primary assists than Zach Benson. What I am getting at is I don't think JJs assists are making up the difference here. 

There is no massive monday stretching at all. In fact I even showed my work. Josh Norris 1.1g/60, Dylan Cozens 0.9g/60. Further Cozens has eclipsed your goal average exactly 2 times. Once when he had 18 (wow) and then the outlier year where he shot 14.7% which is almost 5% over his career average. You wanna dismiss my arguments that is fine, but you wanna talk monday morning stretching, well you just did the same thing by averaging in a 31g year for a guy who hasn't even made it to 20g since. I used his 11g because that is how many Cozens contributed to Buffalo this past season. Norris has 3 20g seasons and you are right, he gets injured which is an issue. However, I think the shoulder injury which robbed him of his 23yr old season and lingered into his 24yr old season before being corrected is now corrected and I do have some faith he can get 70games in. If he does that, getting 24g (seems pretty low when he had 20 last year in 56 games) is very reasonable. Again, I showed my work so you little dismissive comment is notwithstanding. 

Cozens verse Norris in assists is something interesting but that wasn't the OG point. It was that regurgitated line "we have to replace 27g from Peterka!" when in reality we probably have to replace 10g and in reality reality we need to drastically reduce goals against. 

Norris has the worst primary assist rate among forwards like ever 

Norris has 2 primary assists his last 105 games played 

2

He can’t pass 

[BullBuchanan]

Byram is a legit top-pairing defenseman. Why the constant rumors about trying to trade him pretty much since he got here? The defensive issues have been the 2nd and 3rd pairings which have gotten significantly better now, so I'd just keep him and see if we have a solid D with this group.

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Norris has the worst primary assist rate among forwards like ever 

Norris has 2 primary assists his last 105 games played 

2

He can’t pass 

I don't need him to pass, I need him to get to 24goals. 

[Thorny]

And he can’t stay healthy. I can’t believe we are arguing about Josh Norris in 2025 on verge of 15. Cannot believe it

not a commentary on you merely the absurd stances the sabres force you to take  

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Norris has the worst primary assist rate among forwards like ever 

Norris has 2 primary assists his last 105 games played 

2

He can’t pass 

I think of this when people float the idea of Brock Boeser. He’s a finisher who requires a playmaker.

I can’t think of a worse fit for the rest of our top six 6 at the price he’s going to demand.

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't need him to pass, I need him to get to 24goals. 

I know dude but you can’t just ignore the playmaking in totality which you completely did in you’re initial write up - no mention of it when Norris was supposedly replacing cozens AND jj’s offence - think of what you are saying. It can’t be made out a a negligent factor when it’s a severe weakness of Norris. It’s particularly egregious to not mention it when 24 goals represents 9 more than his career average 

I think we can agree that’s no sure thing 

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think of this when people float the idea of Brock Boeser. He’s a finisher who requires a playmaker.

I can’t think of a worse fit for the rest of our top six 6 at the price he’s going to demand.

Desperate need for a facilitator 

I’m having to remind myself of Benson just to cheer myself up! 

A kid! 

Edited 3 hours ago by Thorny