Are we wrong about the Defense?

[Thorny]

19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This is what I've been thinking about a lot as well.

The Sabres need to be better defensively, but they are able to outscore that when they get good goaltending.

Replace 2025 UPL with 2024 UPL and we're in the race, in my opinion

The sabres were in d e a d  l a s t for the vast majority of the season. They finished with 79 points. They were, nonetheless, a few games away from being definitively “in the race”.

i know you know these oft-repeated facts but they bear repeating in this context to illustrate my point which is that we completely sucked and were “close”. Why? That’s the national hockey league. It’s *designed* to do that. They are ALWAYS one move away because making the playoffs i s  n o t  h a r d.

The sabres don’t have to improve goaltending, or D, or at F. But there’s significant room for improvement *at all 3* that more than anyone one player can close the gap on, on their own. We will still get just as much value from a guy that scores 50 as one who prevents.

they need to make considerable moves - position is less important 

Edited 3 hours ago by Thorny

[DarthEbriate]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That's the other thing... what if we just paid Byram and let him play with Dahlin?

Then, hope JBD is a valid top-4 with Power.

And secondly, depending on the timing of the Byram extension, say goodbye to either Peterka or McLeod via trade or offer sheet. Or bridge every RFA and simply push the can one year down the road and start losing them then.

With Adams as GM, it would look like the Montour/Reinhart/Ullmark 1-year deals all over again. Then, he'd re-panic again, and start dishing out the 7-years to all the kids: Benson, Östlund, Novikov, whoever would take them.

Edited 3 hours ago by DarthEbriate

[Archie Lee]

29 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I really think the Athletic player cards do a good job of illustrating the Sabres issues on defence:

• Dahlin Value: $12.3M * Cost: $11.0M * Offence ranking 99% * Defence ranking 90%
• Byram Value: $5.3M * Cost: $3.9M * Offence ranking 69% * Defence ranking 48%
• Power Value: $4.7M * Cost: $8.4M * Offence ranking 62% * Defence ranking 45%
• Samuelsson Value: $2.1M * Cost: $4.3M * Offence ranking 21% * Defence ranking 46%
• Clifton Value: $0.8M * Cost: $3.3M * Offence ranking 30% * Defence ranking 13%
• Bernard-Docker Value: $4.2M * Cost: $0.8M * Offence ranking 42% * Defence ranking 60%

Dahlin is an absolute stud, Power and Byram are positive players (good offensively, adequate defensively), Samuelsson is adequate defensively and bad offensively and Clifton stinks

The problem is we have one good defensive defenceman and two starters who aren't good on either end. (I'm not sure about those JBD numbers).

To me this shows an obvious solution: invest the $7.6M we pay Mule and Cliffy into two guys who are above average defensively.

I don’t disagree with this. Better is better. But, how much of Samuelsson and Clifton being bad is coaching and system related? How much better would they be on Dallas?  I look around the playoffs and see all kinds of d-men who were seen as journeymen, castoffs, not good enough, in some cases by the Sabres (Stecher, Klingberg, Sandin, Benoit, McCabe, Lyubushkin, Ceci, Petrovic, Collin Miller, Gostisbehere, Schmidt, Kulikov, Mikkola).  It feels a little to me like our need to improve the 4th line and then watching Okposo win a cup and Robinson and Girgensens play in the playoffs while Malenstyn, Lafferty, and Aubé-Kubel all underwhelm (to be charitable). I’m not advocating for no player changes. I’m just skeptical that the talent of the type of player we are most likely to bring in, will overcome the bad coaching and system and culture that they will encounter here. 
 

 

[Thorny]

The level of attention to detail on the “holes” on the roster comes off to me, I’m sorry, as tantamount to counting grains of sand on the beach (hyperbole): kind of pointless. It’s more akin to the sort of analysis you’d see on a team that’s made the playoffs consistently and won a few rounds but just can’t get over the last hump

i *promise* you, with hockey being such a fluid game, and with our final place in the standings, and the way we’ve seen issues morph over the year with a young team, that if you attacked the roster based on ONLY the final point total, and addressed it by way of BPA, it would yield better results than sitting and trying to dial down the variables to as small as we can get them in identifying where the “issues” are and then addressing as such

i guarantee you the totally blind approach would work better 

we finished with 79 points. Team is the issue 

it’s macro macro macro when you just want to get to mediocre 

Edited 3 hours ago by Thorny

[DarthEbriate]

27 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Jokiharju 26% O, 56% D. That seems to combine his Boston and Buffalo play, but it doesn't explicitly state that.

Bryson is 17% O, 3%D, 2nd-worst ranked skater in the Atlantic Division, ahead of only Ryan Reaves.

Those Bryson numbers...  but he's happy just to be here. Wants to be here. So, we're good. And his in-season signing -- how little faith do they have in Ryan Johnson to be a #7-8 next year?

I'd estimate Joker would then be something like a 33% O, 45% D while with the Sabres --- given that last season he barely played with Dahlin after the 1st month of the season (based on opening lineups).

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That's the other thing... what if we just paid Byram and let him play with Dahlin?

I'd rather pay Byram $7.4M than Mule and Clifton the same.

I realize its not that simple.

But keeping the overpaid bad players instead of overpaying the good one seems pretty Sabres-y

Edited 2 hours ago by dudacek

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I really think the Athletic player cards do a good job of illustrating the Sabres issues on defence:

• Dahlin Value: $12.3M * Cost: $11.0M * Offence ranking 99% * Defence ranking 90%
• Byram Value: $5.3M * Cost: $3.9M * Offence ranking 69% * Defence ranking 48%
• Power Value: $4.7M * Cost: $8.4M * Offence ranking 62% * Defence ranking 45%
• Samuelsson Value: $2.1M * Cost: $4.3M * Offence ranking 21% * Defence ranking 46%
• Clifton Value: $0.8M * Cost: $3.3M * Offence ranking 30% * Defence ranking 13%
• Bernard-Docker Value: $4.2M * Cost: $0.8M * Offence ranking 42% * Defence ranking 60%

Dahlin is an absolute stud, Power and Byram are positive players (good offensively, adequate defensively), Samuelsson is adequate defensively and bad offensively and Clifton stinks

The problem is we have one good defensive defenceman and two starters who aren't good on either end. (I'm not sure about those JBD numbers).

To me this shows an obvious solution: invest the $7.6M we pay Mule and Cliffy into two guys who are above average defensively.

Power was not a positive player.   He was terrible defensively and was out there for ~22 minutes per game with a -13 overall.  He defensive play was a big reason we had a bad season and he did not step up when Dahlin was injured.  

Whatever the defensive ranking % actually means, being ranked in the mid-40's is not good enough and points to the problem with the top 4 (includes Byram, Power and Muel).    

I can agree that Power and Muel are grossly overpaid and that Byram brough a lot of value for his salary.  But here we are, not willing or not able to pay Byram so we can keep Power.  

Edited 2 hours ago by Pimlach

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The level of attention to detail on the “holes” on the roster comes off to me, I’m sorry, as tantamount to counting grains of sand on the beach (hyperbole): kind of pointless. It’s more akin to the sort of analysis you’d see on a team that’s made the playoffs consistently and won a few rounds but just can’t get over the last hump

i *promise* you, with hockey being such a fluid game, and with our final place in the standings, and the way we’ve seen issues morph over the year with a young team, that if you attacked the roster based on ONLY the final point total, and addressed it by way of BPA, it would yield better results than sitting and trying to dial down the variables to as small as we can get them in identifying where the “issues” are and then addressing as such

i guarantee you the totally blind approach would work better 

we finished with 79 points. Team is the issue 

Some of us like to entertain ourselves by analyzing and 'fixing' the roster.

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'd rather pay Byram $7.4M than Mule and Clifton the same.

I realize its not that simple.

But keeping the overpaid bad players instead of overpaying the good one seems pretty Sabres-y

If you can get Byram for that for 6yrs no more, and then move at least Samuelsson out, I can see this working but 7.5x6yrs is the ceiling. 

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Some of us like to entertain ourselves by analyzing and 'fixing' the roster.

My commentary wasn’t on the usefulness of doing so in terms of entertaining one self online merely in fixing the standings placement

ie it wasn’t just “that won’t work”, i made the argument on how to fix it, too . It wasn’t, “don’t have the discussion”, it was “this discussion isn’t going to get the team to the place people think it will.” 

If Adams hyperfocuses on one area, he’ll do so to the tune of ignoring the rest, as we’ve seen, and he’ll probably get ripped off cause everyone knows he’s over a barrel

he should use the assets we can to acquire the best (VETERAN) player possible regardless of position 

maximize the return, THEN fill out the rest of your plan. Adams always pigeonholes himself 

Edited 2 hours ago by Thorny

[Jorcus]

If you took a poll of Eastern Conference coaches and asked which team had the best defense this year, If it wasn't Washington or Florida it would be Carolina. Where are they according to the WAR charts? Not in the top half in D or goaltending. Without considering how the forwards play defense I think it's just a exercise in frustration. All the parts fit together and if one part is weak then the whole thing is probably weak. It can be an individual player or pairing. It can be a forward who thinks getting back in the zone is for other people. It can be a goal tender who goes from shutout to giving up 5 the next time out. I know all the analytics try to parse this out but it seems incredibly difficult when it comes to hockey. I know this much I never want to see Bryson with Clifton ever again.  

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, Thorny said:

My commentary wasn’t on the usefulness of doing so in terms of entertaining one self online merely in fixing the standings placement

ie it wasn’t just “that won’t work”, i made the argument on how to fix it, too . It wasn’t, “don’t have the discussion”, it was “this discussion isn’t going to get the team to the place people think it will.” 

If Adams hyperfocuses on one area, he’ll do so to the tune of ignoring the rest, as we’ve seen, and he’ll probably get ripped off cause everyone knows he’s over a barrel

he should use the assets we can to acquire the best (VETERAN) player possible regardless of position 

maximize the return, THEN fill out the rest of your plan. Adams always pigeonholes himself 

I don't agree. You have finite assets, just acquiring the best say LW is silly. We need a defender, you only pigeon hole yourself if you decide you must make a move. If you can't find that veteran defender, you do have to hold. 

I do agree that it's harder because Adams is up against it. 

[Doohickie]

2 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I watch the games in and games out guys just standing around while pucks are in the back of the net.

After every single goal in the league you'll see guys standing around while the puck goes into the back of the net.  There's nothing like a goal to make a defender look dumb.

[Thorny]

14 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't agree. You have finite assets, just acquiring the best say LW is silly. We need a defender, you only pigeon hole yourself if you decide you must make a move. If you can't find that veteran defender, you do have to hold. 

I do agree that it's harder because Adams is up against it. 

Meh, I don’t really think the few LW that can only play LW need represent an obstacle to my thought process here. I know Marner can play both side, for example. 

if I can get a better player, for the same relative cost, I’m going with the better player regardless of position 

that’s my outlook at least 

Edited 2 hours ago by Thorny

[Doohickie]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Speaking of goaltending:

Who's our green goalie?  The one we won't be signing this offseason?

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Why not both?

Because the data presented in this thread suggest otherwise.  That's the point of the thread.

Edited 2 hours ago by Doohickie

[Doohickie]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

One thing. You can't do this last part and pay Byram and Power.

But Byram's already packed up his Buffalo house, so...

[Thorny]

9 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Who's a green goalie?  The one we won't be signing this offseason?

Because the data presented in this thread suggest otherwise.  That's the point of the thread.

Data can be misleading 

the sabres were 11th in goals against two season ago and 23rd in offence. Then they flipped. Young team.

address the overall talent 

I’ve been calling it a shell game for 3 literal years. Why can’t I just be right? I’ve called every single Adams aspect starting with Eichel. Like, MAYBE I just have the pulse on this guy? No? Ok carry on. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Thorny

[Thorny]

On 1/1/2024 at 4:17 PM, Thorny said:

“We have no room for Connor Hellebuyck” 

But don’t forget: his early numbers were comparable to Hasek (Levi)

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Thorny

[Demoted]

I been asking for better goaltending for a while now. They seem to still be hanging onto the hope that Levi can be better. UPL should not have been our starter.

Edited 2 hours ago by Demoted

[GASabresIUFAN]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'd rather pay Byram $7.4M than Mule and Clifton the same.

I realize its not that simple.

But keeping the overpaid bad players instead of overpaying the good one seems pretty Sabres-y

That's correct.  Even if you "shift" Samuelsson's and Clifton's money to Byram, you still have to allocate cap for their replacements.  

[Thorny]

On 7/4/2023 at 4:45 PM, Thorny said:

Under A) it’s certainly a possibility within the realm of believability

1) we scored lots

2) the window always opens a little sooner than you think, and closes a little quicker than you think. Jets were “ahead of schedule” in 2018..that was their best year.
 

Tage could win MVP *next year*

Make a compelling argument for why it’s unreasonable to think there’s a decent chance of that happening. That that’s not worth aiming for. That Tage can’t win MVP with a completely dialled in roster. One not needing to get back to cover for UPL

what about Dahlin? Who wants to argue he shouldn’t have Norris expectations? Im listening 

How about in net? Who wants to argue that.. wait, hold up

*Why* don’t we think Hellebuyck, who should threaten for the Vezina, guiding Levi, doesn’t have a very fun chance of sending us to great things next year, again? As he Nikolai Khabibulin‘s us to a deep run before handing the reigns to young Niemi for the Cup? I’d certainly like to find out, if at all reasonably possible.

No one wanted Hellebuyck when I was arguing to sell out for him 

[LGR4GM]

15 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Data can be misleading 

the sabres were 11th in goals against two season ago and 23rd in offence. Then they flipped. Young team.

address the overall talent 

I’ve been calling it a shell game for 3 literal years. Why can’t I just be right? I’ve called every single Adams aspect starting with Eichel. Like, MAYBE I just have the pulse on this guy? No? Ok carry on. 

One could argue Adams has been addressing overall talent. 

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

No one wanted Hellebuyck when I was arguing to sell out for him 

I still don't want Hellebuyck. He turns into UPL during the playoffs. 

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

One could argue Adams has been addressing overall talent. 

I still don't want Hellebuyck. He turns into UPL during the playoffs. 

I think he has a type. Norris is it to a T. Buy low, if things go really well there’s a ton of value to be mined. It’s the “hey, we think there might be a little something here, actually” guys. “Oh with a bigger role this guy should really blossom.” 

He loves high ceiling players, questionable floor players 

It has been quite blindly obvious to this poster’s eyes for a very long time that the Buffalo Sabres need to be in the business of targeting the maximization of the floor 

we’ve been using future verbiage for far, far too long. Give me the guy who is most likely will provide good value: not the guy who has the best chance of producing great 

“I still don’t want Hellebuyck”

”I don’t care about making the playoffs” 

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I think he has a type. Norris is it to a T. Buy low, if things go really well there’s a ton of value to be mined. It’s the “hey, we think there might be a little something here, actually” guys. “Oh with a bigger role this guy should really blossom.” 

He loves high ceiling players, questionable floor players 

It has been quite blindly obvious to this poster’s eyes for a very long time that the Buffalo Sabres need to be in the business of targeting the maximization of the floor 

we’ve been using future verbiage for far, far too long. Give me the guy who is most likely will provide good value: not the guy who has the best chance of producing great 

“I still don’t want Hellebuyck”

”I don’t care about making the playoffs” 

I don't care about making the playoffs. I care about winning playoff series. 

 

To the bold, that's been Yzermans plan. Hasn't worked great. 

[Thorny]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

One could argue Adams has been addressing overall talent. 

I still don't want Hellebuyck. He turns into UPL during the playoffs. 

Jets have made the playoffs 7 times of the last 8 years. Of those 7 appearances, Hellebuyck has played well enough to advance beyond the first round 3 of the 7 times. 

No room for making the playoffs and winning rounds on the Buffalo Sabres 

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't care about making the playoffs. I care about winning playoff series. 

 

To the bold, that's been Yzermans plan. Hasn't worked great. 

And? The exception that proves the rule? Yzerman is the clear statistical outlier along with Adams. We have tried every “strategy” at one point or another. Showing me the failure behind door number 3 ala Monty hall doesn’t prove anything: there will always be a fail we can point to