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Everything posted by IKnowPhysics
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Agreed. Buffalo corporate dollars are already scraping by to support two of the big four. The economics of baseball with a soft salary cap would kick the hell out of the profitability of a MLB team in WNY. It'd likely force even a rich owner to downgrade payrolls and strap competitiveness. Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, and Red Sox all spent north of $200M last year. These teams are major corporations supported by major corporations. The Bills only spent $158M AAV in 2019. It's highly unlikely that we could field a competitive MLB team that at least breaks even in profit. The silver lining - not to be overlooked - is that we have the best and biggest stadium in MiLB located in the heart of our downtown, field a competitive team (when our affiliate isn't hot trash, cough, Mets, cough), have dirt cheap tickets that make going to games extremely family friendly (as opposed to MLB-mandated ticket prices), good local food at concession stands, make a sustainable profit, and still have money left over for fireworks*. Minor league dirt piles are old-timey romantic fun, but Pilot Downtown North AmeriCare Dunn Tire Coca-Cola Sahlen Field is a true gem for sports spectatorship. Its architecture started the now continent-wide trend of modern retro-classic stadiums. *Story time: I will never, ever forget seeing a walk-off grand slam whose celebration went straight to fireworks (because Friday Night Bash). Simply awesome.
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Sabres Trade Alex Nylander to Chicago for D Man Henri Jokiharju
IKnowPhysics replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
Tangent time: We were real close to drafting Bennett. Unanimous consensus in 2014 was that Florida was going to take Ekblad, leaving us our choice of Sams. Rankings were split between the two; and Bennett was the higher ranked skater according to several sources, including Central Scouting. Several mock drafts had us at Bennett, likely moreso than Reinhart. Draisaitl/Sabres conversations were late to the party, and while he was an interesting pick pre-draft, consensus was that Draisaitl was a top-five pick, not a top-two pick. The Sams' first seasons after the draft were pretty similar. Reinhart put up 0.53P/GP, Bennett 0.48P/GP. But the next three seasons would tell the tale, as Bennett put up 26P, 26P, and 27P, while Reinhart put up 47P, 50P, and 65P (more than double!) . Bennett was surpassed by his CGY peers, and it shows in his TOI, whereas Reinhart is playing top line minutes with EIchel: Bennett played 12:38 per game this past season; Reinhart played 20:32 per game. I, and most others, didn't expect Buffalo to take the risky chance on Draisaitl. I think the majority of people who second guess that decision use hindsight. Our decision at the time was between the two Sams, and we chose correctly. Anyone who thinks things couldn't be any worse for our franchise right now, isn't taking the time to imagine if we had tanked that entire miserable 2013-14 season, and then came away with Bennett instead of Reinhart. -
Based on [math], I think he could pull 40.
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Sabres Trade Alex Nylander to Chicago for D Man Henri Jokiharju
IKnowPhysics replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
Seems possible. I remember watching Kyle Turris dominate for a season at Wisconsin and then stall by making the jump too early. He was given up on and traded, then he refocused in the right role with the right development. -
The fan base is reallll angsty right now. All of it stems from losing, but it's pointed in different directions. Many, but not all, fans were calling for Botterill's job, but those folks don't seem to be expressing pleasure regarding what has occurred. I can't remember of a time when fans called for a firing, got it, and then still weren't happy. I don't know if that's because we hired Kevyn Adams, or because we hired a GM without a publicized search, or people wanted a different/better-known name (who would that have been??), or what. Maybe it's because we have major holes in the roster that aren't yet addressed. Maybe fans will be more excited if we make start making good roster moves. But the post-Cup finals offseason doesn't start until potentially October 4th, the Draft is October 10th, and the next season start is December 1st, so we could be in for three to five more months of mopey dregs. I wasn't screaming for Botterill's head, but I recognize the newly present opportunity to gain traction and move forward. I still have some singed notion of hope. I'm hoping some of the glaring roster issues get attention so we can ice a remotely competitive team come December. I'm excited about some elements: Eichel, Dahlin, Cozens, and much more, but they need some help.
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Pegula Sports Entertainment, behind the scenes
IKnowPhysics replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
I, for one, am really glad Terry Pegula isn't Dan Snyder. -
Saw that last night when it aired. The whole episode was hilarious, and when Bruce said "penis," everyone watching did a double take, Harvey then F-bombed, and everyone lost their *****. Good TV. I want to get a Bruce Smith jersey just for that moment.
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Benning says no on Boeser.
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Sens rebranding for this season, will go back to something close to the 1997-2007 logo, and unveil a new third. https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/1985413 Old logo:
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If I had to guess, it's the TV rights. There could be fine print in the TV contract in the event a season is shortened or playoffs are cancelled that describes very specifically how and when NBC/Sports can back out of counting a season as a season under contract or can somehow prorate their payment of the contract. Current TV contract was $2B for years, so it could be up to $200M in play. Especially important if the TV contract terms are distinctly from CBA terms (ie, this year counts as a contract year for players and they get paid, but the league doesn't get all of the TV money). And if it's not explicitly a contract language problem, it's the NHL posturing for the negotiations for the next TV contract, demonstrating that even in a disaster, the rights to the league broadcasts will still be profitable. The league has already begun contract negotiations, but put them on pause until the end of the year. Every single thing the league is doing is to boost that potential TV contract. The current contract was enormous when it was signed, and the next TV contract, as TV networks increasingly rely on live sports to fight revenue loss to streaming content providers, will be even bigger. The previous contract was $75M, current one is $200M. Throw in Seatlle (13th largest US TV market) and Vegas expansions, watch other leagues' rights skyrocket, and I wouldn't be surprised if the TV contract doubles to $400M/year.
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"Money over everything." - Gary Bettman
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I think the nature of the game and the nature of COVID transmission could mean that several teams have experience breakouts. As of July 6, 35 players tested positive. As of today, the Penguins isolated nine players because they were exposed to someone (not another player) who tested positive. Auston Mathews (TOR) tested positive, and confirmed today that he had the virus and is now healthy. Once games get started, it could get real weird, as the NHL has prohibited teams from announcing COVID-related test results or any other injury information. You might just see players disappear from benches and rosters for weeks at a time with little to no explanation, even if it's not COVID-related.
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Agreed. Life extends beyond the game. The health of the players, coaches, staff, workers in supporting industries, families, and fans is above sport. No one should be shaming those who exercise that right. In separate thoughts, it's going to be really interesting to see game rosters not at their fullest/best and it's going to be really interesting to see if they can keep COVID away from the games.
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NHL Draft Tentatively Scheduled for October 9th and 10th.
IKnowPhysics replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
From wiki: "The 2020 NHL Entry Draft will be the 58th NHL Entry Draft. The draft is tentatively scheduled for October 9–10, 2020, and will be held virtually after initially being scheduled for June 26–27, 2020, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec." Worst Zoom call ever. Knowing the NHL, it could work great, or it could be so shoddy that the frustrated Sabres draft Taro Tsujimoto Jr to make a point. -
By the way, with the possibility of Olympics comes the possibility that not only is Jack on Team USA, but by 2022, he's potentially the captain of Team USA.
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It's summer. Best *****-tier pisswater. Go. Personal Top Rankings: Blue/Blue Light Yuengling Canadian Genny O/Cream Ale Gansett Miller Lite PBR High Life Old Style Modelo Coors O Hamm's Tecate Corona XX Worse/worst: Coors Light Bud Heavy Bud Light Keystone Steel Reserve Kirkland Light
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Noted.
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That's a nice thing. I wish him well. I also like NJD hiring a rival NYR assistant coach. But according to the Devils website and wikipedia, Tom Fitzgerald is still only the interim GM. Interesting to see an interim make a permanent head coach hire.
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It is. Speaking of which, Dominik Kahun finished the season with 3.36P/60, which was good enough for 15th best in the league. If he plays the same time on ice per game as Eichel, he should finish next year's 82 game season with 101 points.
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Interesting read, but the method is shady AF, which the author recognizes, but then ignores when wielding judgement. The author lays out the weakness: But then smashes Buffalo for taking Brayden McNabb instead of Mike Hoffman, because defensemen don't score points. Additionally, the method characterization is not performed round by round, because it loses, badly, where it counts. The Sabres clearly beat the hell out of this method in the first two rounds. Summing up the WAR for the top-60 picks, the Sabres outscore this method by 22.6 to 8.3. It's an overly simplistic approach and the author over simplifies the analysis of its effectiveness. It also ignores many real draft pick benefits not measured by NHLe, such as, meeting organizational depth needs. I'm not sure Rochester would ever get any defensemen if BUffalo exclusively used this technique. However, like any good fiction, it does raise an interesting philosophical question. Regarding later rounds, should teams ignore organizational depth needs in later rounds to try to swing for the fences for the NHL team?
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In happier(?) news, the NHL is attempting to schedule three games per day in the two hub cities, at 12pm, 4:30pm, and 9pm local time. This means that if you're on the east coast, you could be seeing games nonstop from noon to 2am, as Edmonton is 2 hours behind. TBD how many games will be nationally broadcast. If you were jonesing for hockey and you wanted to get your hockey fix, that would do it. https://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-41095824-4
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[trigger warning: this will make you mad, one way or another, and it's too heavy of a post for the "Around the NHL" thread] My .02. Gary Bettman is a coward and a liar, who held bias at a critical moment when courage and objectivity was needed, damaging the sport and effectively making him a cheat. I will hate him until he admits and apologizes for "No Goal," which I do not expect he will ever do. I will never forget Jim Kelley's recollection of his experience that night. An excerpt: The fallout of that night stretched on for months, if not years. Bettman's character was exposed in the weeks after that night. From a Jim Kelley article: Bob Swados intimated in his book that Bettman, driven by television ratings, never wanted the Sabres to win that series. A published review of that book: The closest Gary Bettman ever got to apologizing was in 2012, on an episode of "Costas Tonight," when he admitted that the rule (but not the incident) was one of the worst mistakes of his career. Some say that the league assuming control of the franchise operation after the Rigases until finding a new owner was Gary Bettman's penance for No Goal, but I think it was his penance for John Spano, the would-be Islanders owner who swindled Bettman just five years before. Just as in Long Island, Bettman needed to find an owner that would revitalize the Sabres and he personally needed to oversee a heightened level of due diligence investigation into potential buyers to avoid another Spano- especially with the mess left by the Rigases and the money owed to Adelphia. This was mostly to protect his own employment and to protect the league from massive financial loss. To do otherwise would have resulted in enormous disaster as a lose-lose-lose for the fans, the league, and his career. And he still bungled it somewhat. The league turned down Golisano's initial bid, then entertained Mark Hamister's bid that needed $40M in public funds, only for those funds to be rejected, causing Hamister's creditors to pull out, and Golisano successfully submitting a revised lower, but realistic, bid. Golisano protected the Sabres. Bettman protected the league. Some other fan bases have rational reasons to hate Gary Bettman too, and I support them. He's been booed since the '94 lockout. I've booed him several times. In the recent years, he seems to revel in the booing, like a cartoon supervillain gloating about his misdoings.
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Some WOWY with Jeff, Jack, and Sam. Short version, in terms of CF%: When the three of them are together, they are great. Almost unstoppable. Eichel benefits from having either Skinner or Reinhart (benefit is mutual). When Reinhart or Skinner play without Eichel or eachother, they basically play as good as the rest of the team does without Eichel on the ice. This is subpar and needs improvement. When Reinhart and Skinner played together without Eichel, it was atrocious. The sample size was smaller here, but it was still measurably bad. I don't know what positions were played when this occurred.
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I knew I was forgetting someone.