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Everything posted by IKnowPhysics
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That would be the two, yes. If that were to occur, then you'd have at least two of the following available, if Lafreniere, Byfield, and Stutzle are off the board: Raymond, Rossi, Perfetti, and Holtz. Which means you would be guaranteed one of Raymond, Rossi, or Perfetti. Nice.
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There are so few defensemen in the top 15, that I can't help but wonder if there will be an early run. And by early run, I mean two, not one, defensmen are selected before #8.
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Finally sitting down to actually sift theough this. For the #8 pick... Obvious: Lafreniere (1.0), Byfield (2.8), and Stutzle (3.4) are all basically guaranteed to be gone. If for some reason they're not gone, that's a no brainer decision. Almost not worth thinking about. That mathematically leaves at least one of the following players to be available at 8: Lucas Raymond (LW/RW, 5.0, NHLe 27-51) Jamie Drysdale (D, 5.2, NHLe 12-18) Marcus Rossi (C, 6.6, NHLe 41-61) Cole Perfetti (C, 6.8, NHLe 34-52) Alexander Holtz (RW, 8.2, NHLe 18-27) Immediate impacts: I think Raymond, Rossi, and Perfetti each could potentially make the team this year in sheltered roles, especially Rossi. Rossi and Perfetti have maxed out in the OHL and are too young to go to the AHL. Drysdale would likely benefit from another year in juniors and is too young to go to the AHL. Raymond and and Holtz would likely benefit from staying in the SHL another year (they could play in the AHL, though too).
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Irrational thoughts I harbor: Reinhart can never be traded because he is the result of Intentional Tank Season #1. Eichel was Intentional Tank Season #2. Dahlin was Unintentional Tank Season #3. Imagine intentionally tanking an entire season, only to sell that player within a couple of years. It's irrational attachment, but damned if it wouldn't piss of a lot of fans. If the Sabres violated this precept and traded any of them, it would be Reinhart, because he's the weakest of the three. And they would ask for the moon, especially as he is a legitimately productive player on the current roster, and verifiably not just because Jack. They couldn't sell him for a package because the precept of the tank was to acquire elite -of-the-elite talent through the draft. To sell him for several mediocre pieces, even first round draft picks outside the top three overall picks or "good" pieces, would be traitorous to the goal of the tank. They would need a blockbuster one-for-one deal that brings back elite-of-the-elite talent that helps the team. Logic time: BUT, if you trade your 1RW, who the ***** left on this roster plays 1RW? Trading Sam endangers the one functioning elite-level element on this team- a competitive first line. Do we just assume Jack elevates Dominik Kahun to a 1RW? Risky AF. The only way you logically sell Sam is if you're in a risk-accepting burn-it-all mentality to rearrange this team big time OR you're ok with getting pieces back. I think they keep Sam or they go off the deep end. It'll be fun either way.
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Updated chart below, now with ranges on the NHLe based on the standard deviation of the conversion factors from eight different sources (not every league has eight conversion factors). The problem with the USHL and some other leagues are too few players joining the NHL directly, causing wild variation in the traditional NHLe calculation methods because of small sample size. Some folks have used the newer Wilson method to calculate the jump to an intermediate league and then to the NHL (this is harder and more complicated), but it seems to work decent enough. Brisson, because of the wild difference of opinion on the conversion factor for the USHL now has a wide spread on his NHLe, and this uncertainty is somewhat represented in his middling ranking. Specifically to investigate options for the #8 pick, the chart I created only took included any player that made it into the Top 15 on any of the rankings below. Players that didn't get ranked that high by anyone didn't make the cut, including Marat Khusahfjdlsagjsdflgjlhuroewhrwejrnjekwnrweifgdsfdsdfsnfdov. I also updated some math on the composite rankings, counting any non-ranking as #32 for averaging, then re-ordering the composite.
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Montour will be fine. Kevyn Adams will be fine.
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Yep. They don't exactly correlate to any of the composite rankings. I'll have an updated chart sometime tomorrow.
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Seems out-of-family. A different calculator I'm using is giving me a different number. Give me a couple hours and I'll doublecheck my math and the various conversion factors.
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Composite rankings including the top 15 players from five different sources plus CSS, NHLe, and NHLe ranks for forwards and defensemen: Disclosure edit: this chart is updated downthread.
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And highlights from the NHL Central Scouting's top ten European Skaters: #1 Tim Stutzle (LW) Date of birth: Jan 15, 2002 Height/Weight: 6'0" / 187lbs Born: Saint-Eustache, QC, CAN Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 7G-27A-34P in 41GP for Adler Mannheim (DEL) NHL equivalency: 42P #2 Alexander Holtz (RW) Date of birth: Jan 23, 2002 Height/Weight: 6'0" / 183lbs Born: Saltsjö-Boo, SWE Shoots: R 2019-2020 regular season stats: 9G-7A-16P in 35GP for Djurgardens IF (SHL) NHL equivalency: 22P #3 Anton Lundell (C) Date of birth: Oct 03, 2001 Height/Weight: 6'1" / 187lbs Born: Espoo, FIN Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 10G-18A-28P in 44GP for HIFK (Liiga) NHL equivalency: 37P #4 Lucas Raymond (RW/LW) Date of birth: Mar 28, 2002 Height/Weight: 5'10" / 183lbs Born: Göteborg, SWE Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 4G-6A-10P in 33GP for Frolunda HC (SHL) NHL equivalency (estimated): 15P #5 Rodion Amirov (LW) Date of birth: Oct 02, 2001 Height/Weight: 6'0" / 168lbs Born: Salavat, RUS Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 10G-12A-22P in 17GP for Tolpar Ufa (MHL) NHL equivalency: 48P #6 Helge Grans (D) Date of birth: May 10, 2002 Height/Weight: 6'3" / 192lbs Ljungby, SWE Shoots: R 2019-2020 regular season stats: 1G-2A-30P in 21GP for Malmo Redhawks (SHL) and 4G-23A-27P in 27GP for Malmo in SuperElit. NHL equivalency: Unknown; maybe 7P, maybe 25P. #7 John-Jason Peterka (LW) Date of birth: Jan 14, 2002 Height/Weight: 5'11" / 192lbs Born: München, GER Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 7G-4A-11P in 42GP for EHC Munchen (DEL) NHL equivalency: 13P #8 Topi Niemela (D) Date of birth: Mar 25, 2002 Height/Weight: 6'0" / 163lbs Born: Oulu, FIN Shoots: R 2019-2020 regular season stats: 1G-6A-7P in 43GP for Karpat (Liiga) NHL equivalency: 9P #9 Noel Gunier (RW) Date of birth: Oct 07, 2001 Height/Weight: 6'2" / 174lbs Born: Luleå, SWE Shoots: R 2019-2020 regular season stats: 4G-9A-13P in 45GP for Lulea (SHL) NHL equivalency: 14P #10 Roni Hirvonen (C) Date of birth: Jan 10, 2002 Height/Weight: 5'9" / 163lbs Born: Espoo, FIN Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 5G-11A-16P in 52GP for Assat (Liiga) NHL equivalency: 18P
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Let 's get this thread moving. Highlights from the NHL Central Scouting's top ten North American Skaters: #1 Alex Lefreniere (LW) Date of birth: Oct 11, 2001 Height/Weight: 6'1" / 192lbs Born: Saint-Eustache, QC, CAN Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 35G-77A-112P in 52GP for Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL) NHL equivalency: 50P #2 Quinton Byfield (C) Date of birth: Aug 19, 2002 Height/Weight: 6'4" / 214lbs Born: Newmarket, ON, CAN Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 32G-50A-82P in 45GP for Sudbury Wolves (OHL) NHL equivalency: 48P #3 Jamie Drysdale (D) Date of birth: Apr 08, 2002 Height/Weight: 5'11" / 170lbs Born: Toronto, ON, CAN Shoots: R 2019-2020 regular season stats: 9G-38A-47P in 49GP for Erie Otters (OHL) NHL equivalency: 25P #4 Jake Sanderson (D) Date of birth: Jul 08, 2002 Height/Weight: 6'1" / 185lbs Born: Whitefish, MT, USA Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 7G-22A-29P in 47GP for US National U18 Team C (USDP) and 2G-12A-14P in 19GP for USNTDP Juniors NHL equivalency (estimated): 12-20P #5 Cole Perfetti (C) Date of birth: Jan 01, 2002 Height/Weight: 5'10" / 185lbs Born: Whitby, ON, CAN Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 37G-74A-111P in 61GP for Sagniaw Spirit (OHL) NHL equivalency: 48P #6 Marco Rossi (C) Date of birth: Sep 23, 2001 Height/Weight: 5'9" / 179lbs Born: Feldkirch, AUT Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 39G-81A-120P in 56GP for Ottawa 67's (OHL) NHL equivalency: 57P #7 Jack Quinn (RW) Date of birth: Sep 19, 2001 Height/Weight: 5'11" / 176lbs Born: Cobden, ON, CAN Shoots: R 2019-2020 regular season stats: 52G-37A-89P in 62GP for Ottawa 67's (OHL) NHL equivalency: 38P #8 Kaiden Guhle (D) Date of birth: Jan 18, 2002 Height/Weight: 6'3" / 187lbs Born: Sherwood Park, AB, CAN Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 11G-29A-40P in 45GP for Prince Albert Raiders (WHL) NHL equivalency: 17P #9 Braden Schenider (D) Date of birth: Sep 20, 2001 Height/Weight: 6'2" / 209lbs Born: Prince Albert, SK, CAN Shoots: R 2019-2020 regular season stats: 7G-35A-42P in 60GP for Sudbury Wolves (WHL) NHL equivalency: 17P #10 Dawson Mercer (RW) Date of birth: Oct 27, 2001 Height/Weight: 6'0" / 179lbs Born: Carbonear, NL, CAN Shoots: R 2019-2020 combined regular season stats: 24G-36A-60P in 42GP for Drummondville and Chicoutimi (QMJHL) NHL equivalency: 33P
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Troof. For instance, the Hackensack Bulls had a train that would interupt play as it passed through the outfield:
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Peter Griffin: "A 2C is just a 2C, but a #8 pick could be anything. It could even be a 2C! And you know how long we've wanted one of those!"
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New Royal Blue Jerseys To Debut August 11, 9am
IKnowPhysics replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
100%. -
New Royal Blue Jerseys To Debut August 11, 9am
IKnowPhysics replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
I respectfully disagree. I like the clean OG look of the matching collar and it avoids the toilet seat collar problem on NHL and NFL jerseys. Would it be out of place if we had gold collars? No. I love the oversized crest. We have a great logo and it should be showcased. It's big and and beautiful and in your face. Plus Hairy Buffalo. Going bigger on the crest is enabled by the clean look granted by not going with the gold collar. A big logo and a gold collar could end up a little cluttered or misproportioned. I initially looked at it funny for a second, but it's a neat detail that adds pop and depth of field to the stripes that prevents them from looking flat. They're perfectly thin. And it sure as ***** doesn't look like any thing St Louis ever had or was ever close to having. -
New Royal Blue Jerseys To Debut August 11, 9am
IKnowPhysics replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
Sweet. Preordered. -
New Royal Blue Jerseys To Debut August 11, 9am
IKnowPhysics replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
A fine choice. I went with 26 the draft year and 9 the 50th Anniversary. Debating my next move... 23... 53... 19... or do a wait-and-see... Cozens... 10... free agent 2C... or the ever classic 74. -
New Royal Blue Jerseys To Debut August 11, 9am
IKnowPhysics replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
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Don't be so hard on yourself.
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Why are the draft lottery threads locked? No matter. I typed this up before it was announced and I'm gonna post it anyway. *****in' called it. *****'s rigged to maximize paper NBA style.
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New Royal Blue Jerseys To Debut August 11, 9am
IKnowPhysics replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
Thinking back carefully about allof the crest iterations and detail changes, this could ultimately be correct. I really do like the modernization update from the 1994 logo to 2010, minus the choice of navy over royal and the continuance of gray. But this is a logo feature addition that really adds to the crest some visual depth, flash, and a feeling of regality without taking anything away at all; there's no downside or regret. And I don't think you can say that about any logo except the original. And you don't have to change signage or images or trademark patents. You limit the change to only jerseys -on the players and on the fans- for a cool sense of exclusivity. -
New Royal Blue Jerseys To Debut August 11, 9am
IKnowPhysics replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
Hairy Buffalo is dope AF. I would love to see that carried forward. -
Bob McKenzie announced his retirement on twitter: He is one the ***** best. Probably the best on-air analyst at the national level, perhaps of all time. He also holds the gold standard for trustworthiness in hockey news in the digital era- it wasn't official until he said it. He as some work to do yet per contract, but he'll be missed.
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Depends on your goals. If you want to max number of Cups, then you want the greatest probability of getting to the SC Finals through the easiest competition, which means having worse players in your conference. If you want max pure sportsmanship, then you want to strive to win against the best competition possible playing their best, which means having better players in your conference. But pure sportsmanship on ice is necessarily modified by player-personnel elements of the game, that are definitely and necessarily still part of the game: injuries, salary caps, trades, coaching effectiveness, drafts, free agency, callups, holdouts, etc. Practical sportsmanship in modern pro sports now encompasses these elements as part of the competition. There's no moral judgement attached to any of this. Fans can fan how they want to fan. I personally fan the practical model of sportsmanship, keeping in mind that the winning the Stanley Cup is likely the tangible aspect of outperforming all other hockey organizations, but isn't an all encompassing definition of peak performance. Example: Do I feel that CAR was the pinnacle of hockey when they won the SC? No.