IKnowPhysics

A thread to discuss the salary cap and contracts as we posture into qualifying offers and free agency. The salary cap for 2020-21 is $81.5M. As of today, 8/20/20, the Sabres numbers are as follows: The total 2019-20 NHL roster, not including LTIR: 13F, 7D, 2G. Cap committed to NHL players under contract (4F, 5D, 1G), totaling $46.225M of salary: Eichel, $10M Skinner, $9M Okposo, $6M Marcus Johansson, $4.5 Ristolainen, $5.4M Miller, $3.875M McCabe, $2.85M Dahlin, $0.925M Jokiharju, $0.925M Hutton, $2.75M Buyout: Hodgson, $0.792M For RFAs and UFAs and non-rostered players, this leaves $81.5M - $46.225M - $0.792M = $34.483M RFAs (4F, 2D, 1G) and previous salary, totaling $12.605M, and minimum qualifying offers, totaling $12.4975M: Reinhart, $3.65M - min $3.75M Kahun, $0.925M - min $0.8325M Olofsson, $0.7675 - min $0.7M Lazar, $0.7M - min $0.7M Montour, $3.3875M - min $3.525M Pilut, $0.925M - min $0.8325M Ullmark, $1.325M - min $1.325M Thompson (currently on LTIR), $0.925M - min $0.8325M UFAs (5F, 0D, 0G) and previous salary, totaling $17.975M: Simmonds, $2.5M Frolik, $4.3M Vesey, $2.275M Girgensens, $1.6M Larsson, $1.55M Sobotka (currently on LTIR), $3.5M Hunwick (currently on LTIR), $2.25M Non-rostered players and NHL cap hit if rostered (doesn't include UFAs): Oglevie, RFA - min QO $0.8325M Cozens, $0.85M Ruotsalainen, $0.925M Mittelstadt, RFA - min QO $0.8325M Asplund, $0.845M Pekar, $0.77833 Dea, $0.7M CJ Smith, $0.7M Remi, RFA - min QO $0.7M Murray, $0.775M Biro, $0.925M DiPietro $0.75M Hickey, RFA - min QO $0.8325M Bryson, $0.889M Borgen, $0.864M Fitzgerald, $0.858M Spencer, RFA - min QO $0.7M Samualsson, $0.925M Laaksonen, $0.853M UPL, $0.778 Jonas Johansson, RFA - min QO $0.7M Capfriendly chart: Contracts quantity rules: Maximum number of contracts, including NHL, LTIR, non-NHL players, and signed players returned to juniors, but not unsigned draft picks: 50. Minimum 24. Maximum active players on an NHL roster: 23. Maximum dressed players: 20.

We should start a 2020-21 cap thread to look at the big picture. It'll help weigh how much cap room we have in different UFA/RFA scenarios and inform threads like this and threads weighing whether we resign Simmonds, Girgensens, Vesey, Larsson, Sobotka, and Hunwick, etc.

Possibly. Could also have been Botterill stocking up on NHL-ready right shot Ds in case Ristolainen demanded a trade. At the time, after RIsto, the only right shot D we had was Montour. Bogosian had hip surgery the April right before that, and was expected to be out 5-6 months, threatening the season start. Borgen wasn't NHL ready, Casey Nelson was injured and wasn't NHL ready, Matt Tennyson wasn't NHL ready. I think Botterill bought Miller at a reasonable price, but still needed more depth, and taking on Jokiharju as a reasonable solution to a floundering Nylander was pretty no-brainer. Jokiharju was the blue chip prospect right hander we didn't have in the pipeline. It also gives Borgen, et al, time to develop. Wouldn't be surprised either way on who initiated.

New team, new environment, new coach, new culture, new partners (sometimes several), new personalities, new schemes, new outlet lanes and timing, new backcheckers, new goalies, new risk profiles, new player usage, new opponents. There's a lot to unpack. Certainly not insurmountable, but one or several challenges can impact time to maximum potential. That said, we're potentially jammed on NHL-quality right-shot D (Risto, Jokiharju, Montour, Miller) and bare on left-shot D (Dahlin [who plays the right side], McCabe, Pilut???). He's a workable contributor, 2nd pair on a decent team or 3rd pair guy on a contender.. But the roster currently being a mess makes it fuzzy on what his role will be.

No? Disagree.

Before this continues to spin feverishly into petty ridiculousness, this was already clarified and resolved on twitter. Lance Lysowski was interviewed by Gene Battaglia on ESPN Rochester. Gene tweeted Lysowski's answer to a question without context, and Lysowski immediately clarified and regretted his own poor wording. Communication about development with Rochester was run through the GMs, as you would expect it would be; he never intended to say that Kruger and Taylor never spoke:

When you hear dumbass rumors from the internet.

If we're talking Holtz, Sanderson, Lundell, Quinn, I'm with you. Trade them and take the now-talent. You'll definitely find a buyer. But this isn't Casey Mittelstadt or Alex Nylander. If we're talking Rossi or Perfetti (or better), and there's a very good chance we are, we're talking centers that will likely put up at least 35P their first year, and potentially be 60P+ centers in year two, and more in the future at a fraction of the cap hit of a veteran. You end up in the rare situation like Provorov being pushed out of the top five in 2015 and being taken by Philly at #7 simply because Eichel, McDavid, Strome, Marner, and Hanifin exist in the same year. It shouldn't be overlooked. We still need help on top of this kind of pick for next season, no question. But I think it's possible to move other pieces, even future 1st round picks, or go bigger in free agency to do that and preserve the pick.

On weighing draft vs trade, there's been more than a few sources indicating this a very strong draft for a few years now: Edmonton Journal: "2020 NHL draft has most attacking talent of any draft of this century" 5/14/2020 The Puck Authority: "The Historic Talent of the 2020 Draft" 9/24/18 SBNation: "Road to 2020: Could this draft get any deeper?" A #8 pick in a strong draft class with plenty of elite talent to go around is incredibly valuable, and while we'd have to wait a year to three years for that talent to develop, it may be worth the wait. I'd be more inclined to sell a weaker pick.

Not my personal overall favorites, but definitely shouldn't be missed: Miroslav Satan for Craig Millar and Barrie Moore. Jeff Skinner for Cliff Pu, 2019 2nd round pick, 2020 3rd round pick, 2020 6th round pick. Rhett Warrener and a 1999 5th round pick (Ryan Miller) for Mike Wilson. And who can't forget this chestnut: Islanders promised to not draft certain players in 1972 expansion draft for 1972 8th round pick (#117-Rene Levasseur).

More irrational thoughts: When I see package-for-player deals, in order to be a fair deal, they simply cannot be even. No matter what's involved, you have to understand and overaccount for the risk of failure. On the single player side, if a player is healthy and is a proven high-level contributor, there's considerably low risk. For usual package pieces, there tends to be a littany of reasons why individual pieces don't work out: A player with injury history may: Get injured. A prospect may: Get injured. Not develop to their fullest potential. Not fill changing team positional needs by the time they're NHL ready. Get logjammed behind other players. A draft pick may: Get injured. Not develop to any level. Not fill changing team positional needs by the time they're NHL ready. Get logjammed behind other players. Not sign with the team. Each of those line items carries some percentage risk or probabilty of failure that's different for each player and situation. If value-added return for sending a healthy proven player relies on every single piece being 100% to maximum potential, the chances of that trade working out fairly goes way down. The chance that any given piece of a multiple piece package doesn't work is much, much higher than the healthy proven player. Package deals must overcompensate for risk. Trigger warning. The O'Reilly trade is a fantastic example. O'Reilly pushed the Blues over the edge to a Cup. Buffalo needs all elements of Thompson, Sobotka, Berglund, 2019 1st (Ryan Johnson), and 2021 2nd to pan out in order for that trade to be considered remotely fair. Thompson's at risk of not develping, Sobotka's injured and his role is in question, Berglund left the team, Ryan Johnson's too-early-to-tell, and the 2021 2nd is most obviously unknown. More specifically, Thompson, Johnson, and 2021 are payment for future years of not having O'Reilly. Sobotka and Berglund, both on the wrong side of 30, were supposed to make up for not having ROR in the years we waited for Thompson/Johnson/2021 to be NHL ready, and not only are they not doing that, it's not even close. Each package piece has/d substantial chances of failure, and the probability that some number of elements didn't pan out, wrecking the return for one of Buffalo best assets, was extremely high. So if I see a package proposal for Sam Reinhart, a player that was the result of all of this catastrophe (all of this happened between 2/2013 and 6/2014, leading into Reinhart's 2014 draft): Ruff being fired the February before the season. An offseason that saw trading away Regehr, Leopold, and Pominville with no replacements. Ron Rolston being hired, then fired. Darcy Regier being fired. Tim Murray being hired. Ted Nolan being hired. Pat Lafontaine being hired then quitting. Ryan Miller and Steve Ott traded. Ryan Vinz. John Scott-Phil Kessel lumberjack in preseason. Cody Hodgson leading the team with 44 points. Ville Leino scoring zero goals in 58GP. Henrik Tallinder round two. The team intentionally finishing 21-51-10. ...and has finished ranked in the following spots on the team in points, starting with his rookie year: 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, get traded for anything but a singularly good player, we best see immediate, healthy, proven return that is low risk and high reward. Don't waste my next few years hanging hope of a return for one of the team's best players on a 2nd rounder in 2023.

The more you constrain the picks, the more certainty you get. If the top three are gone, two defensmen are gone, and Perfetti is gone, then you get one of Rossi or Raymond. Not bad at all. We should commit information warfare on other teams' social media to ensure two defensemen are taken before us.

That would be the two, yes. If that were to occur, then you'd have at least two of the following available, if Lafreniere, Byfield, and Stutzle are off the board: Raymond, Rossi, Perfetti, and Holtz. Which means you would be guaranteed one of Raymond, Rossi, or Perfetti. Nice.

"I know nothing about this, but I'm generally upset with previous moves by the organization, so I will die on the hill that it is a bad move."

There are so few defensemen in the top 15, that I can't help but wonder if there will be an early run. And by early run, I mean two, not one, defensmen are selected before #8.

Finally sitting down to actually sift theough this. For the #8 pick... Obvious: Lafreniere (1.0), Byfield (2.8), and Stutzle (3.4) are all basically guaranteed to be gone. If for some reason they're not gone, that's a no brainer decision. Almost not worth thinking about. That mathematically leaves at least one of the following players to be available at 8: Lucas Raymond (LW/RW, 5.0, NHLe 27-51) Jamie Drysdale (D, 5.2, NHLe 12-18) Marcus Rossi (C, 6.6, NHLe 41-61) Cole Perfetti (C, 6.8, NHLe 34-52) Alexander Holtz (RW, 8.2, NHLe 18-27) Immediate impacts: I think Raymond, Rossi, and Perfetti each could potentially make the team this year in sheltered roles, especially Rossi. Rossi and Perfetti have maxed out in the OHL and are too young to go to the AHL. Drysdale would likely benefit from another year in juniors and is too young to go to the AHL. Raymond and and Holtz would likely benefit from staying in the SHL another year (they could play in the AHL, though too).

Irrational thoughts I harbor: Reinhart can never be traded because he is the result of Intentional Tank Season #1. Eichel was Intentional Tank Season #2. Dahlin was Unintentional Tank Season #3. Imagine intentionally tanking an entire season, only to sell that player within a couple of years. It's irrational attachment, but damned if it wouldn't piss of a lot of fans. If the Sabres violated this precept and traded any of them, it would be Reinhart, because he's the weakest of the three. And they would ask for the moon, especially as he is a legitimately productive player on the current roster, and verifiably not just because Jack. They couldn't sell him for a package because the precept of the tank was to acquire elite -of-the-elite talent through the draft. To sell him for several mediocre pieces, even first round draft picks outside the top three overall picks or "good" pieces, would be traitorous to the goal of the tank. They would need a blockbuster one-for-one deal that brings back elite-of-the-elite talent that helps the team. Logic time: BUT, if you trade your 1RW, who the ***** left on this roster plays 1RW? Trading Sam endangers the one functioning elite-level element on this team- a competitive first line. Do we just assume Jack elevates Dominik Kahun to a 1RW? Risky AF. The only way you logically sell Sam is if you're in a risk-accepting burn-it-all mentality to rearrange this team big time OR you're ok with getting pieces back. I think they keep Sam or they go off the deep end. It'll be fun either way.

Updated chart below, now with ranges on the NHLe based on the standard deviation of the conversion factors from eight different sources (not every league has eight conversion factors). The problem with the USHL and some other leagues are too few players joining the NHL directly, causing wild variation in the traditional NHLe calculation methods because of small sample size. Some folks have used the newer Wilson method to calculate the jump to an intermediate league and then to the NHL (this is harder and more complicated), but it seems to work decent enough. Brisson, because of the wild difference of opinion on the conversion factor for the USHL now has a wide spread on his NHLe, and this uncertainty is somewhat represented in his middling ranking. Specifically to investigate options for the #8 pick, the chart I created only took included any player that made it into the Top 15 on any of the rankings below. Players that didn't get ranked that high by anyone didn't make the cut, including Marat Khusahfjdlsagjsdflgjlhuroewhrwejrnjekwnrweifgdsfdsdfsnfdov. I also updated some math on the composite rankings, counting any non-ranking as #32 for averaging, then re-ordering the composite.

Montour will be fine. Kevyn Adams will be fine.

Yep. They don't exactly correlate to any of the composite rankings. I'll have an updated chart sometime tomorrow.

Seems out-of-family. A different calculator I'm using is giving me a different number. Give me a couple hours and I'll doublecheck my math and the various conversion factors.

Composite rankings including the top 15 players from five different sources plus CSS, NHLe, and NHLe ranks for forwards and defensemen: Disclosure edit: this chart is updated downthread.

And highlights from the NHL Central Scouting's top ten European Skaters: #1 Tim Stutzle (LW) Date of birth: Jan 15, 2002 Height/Weight: 6'0" / 187lbs Born: Saint-Eustache, QC, CAN Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 7G-27A-34P in 41GP for Adler Mannheim (DEL) NHL equivalency: 42P #2 Alexander Holtz (RW) Date of birth: Jan 23, 2002 Height/Weight: 6'0" / 183lbs Born: Saltsjö-Boo, SWE Shoots: R 2019-2020 regular season stats: 9G-7A-16P in 35GP for Djurgardens IF (SHL) NHL equivalency: 22P #3 Anton Lundell (C) Date of birth: Oct 03, 2001 Height/Weight: 6'1" / 187lbs Born: Espoo, FIN Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 10G-18A-28P in 44GP for HIFK (Liiga) NHL equivalency: 37P #4 Lucas Raymond (RW/LW) Date of birth: Mar 28, 2002 Height/Weight: 5'10" / 183lbs Born: Göteborg, SWE Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 4G-6A-10P in 33GP for Frolunda HC (SHL) NHL equivalency (estimated): 15P #5 Rodion Amirov (LW) Date of birth: Oct 02, 2001 Height/Weight: 6'0" / 168lbs Born: Salavat, RUS Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 10G-12A-22P in 17GP for Tolpar Ufa (MHL) NHL equivalency: 48P #6 Helge Grans (D) Date of birth: May 10, 2002 Height/Weight: 6'3" / 192lbs Ljungby, SWE Shoots: R 2019-2020 regular season stats: 1G-2A-30P in 21GP for Malmo Redhawks (SHL) and 4G-23A-27P in 27GP for Malmo in SuperElit. NHL equivalency: Unknown; maybe 7P, maybe 25P. #7 John-Jason Peterka (LW) Date of birth: Jan 14, 2002 Height/Weight: 5'11" / 192lbs Born: München, GER Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 7G-4A-11P in 42GP for EHC Munchen (DEL) NHL equivalency: 13P #8 Topi Niemela (D) Date of birth: Mar 25, 2002 Height/Weight: 6'0" / 163lbs Born: Oulu, FIN Shoots: R 2019-2020 regular season stats: 1G-6A-7P in 43GP for Karpat (Liiga) NHL equivalency: 9P #9 Noel Gunier (RW) Date of birth: Oct 07, 2001 Height/Weight: 6'2" / 174lbs Born: Luleå, SWE Shoots: R 2019-2020 regular season stats: 4G-9A-13P in 45GP for Lulea (SHL) NHL equivalency: 14P #10 Roni Hirvonen (C) Date of birth: Jan 10, 2002 Height/Weight: 5'9" / 163lbs Born: Espoo, FIN Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 5G-11A-16P in 52GP for Assat (Liiga) NHL equivalency: 18P

Let 's get this thread moving. Highlights from the NHL Central Scouting's top ten North American Skaters: #1 Alex Lefreniere (LW) Date of birth: Oct 11, 2001 Height/Weight: 6'1" / 192lbs Born: Saint-Eustache, QC, CAN Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 35G-77A-112P in 52GP for Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL) NHL equivalency: 50P #2 Quinton Byfield (C) Date of birth: Aug 19, 2002 Height/Weight: 6'4" / 214lbs Born: Newmarket, ON, CAN Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 32G-50A-82P in 45GP for Sudbury Wolves (OHL) NHL equivalency: 48P #3 Jamie Drysdale (D) Date of birth: Apr 08, 2002 Height/Weight: 5'11" / 170lbs Born: Toronto, ON, CAN Shoots: R 2019-2020 regular season stats: 9G-38A-47P in 49GP for Erie Otters (OHL) NHL equivalency: 25P #4 Jake Sanderson (D) Date of birth: Jul 08, 2002 Height/Weight: 6'1" / 185lbs Born: Whitefish, MT, USA Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 7G-22A-29P in 47GP for US National U18 Team C (USDP) and 2G-12A-14P in 19GP for USNTDP Juniors NHL equivalency (estimated): 12-20P #5 Cole Perfetti (C) Date of birth: Jan 01, 2002 Height/Weight: 5'10" / 185lbs Born: Whitby, ON, CAN Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 37G-74A-111P in 61GP for Sagniaw Spirit (OHL) NHL equivalency: 48P #6 Marco Rossi (C) Date of birth: Sep 23, 2001 Height/Weight: 5'9" / 179lbs Born: Feldkirch, AUT Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 39G-81A-120P in 56GP for Ottawa 67's (OHL) NHL equivalency: 57P #7 Jack Quinn (RW) Date of birth: Sep 19, 2001 Height/Weight: 5'11" / 176lbs Born: Cobden, ON, CAN Shoots: R 2019-2020 regular season stats: 52G-37A-89P in 62GP for Ottawa 67's (OHL) NHL equivalency: 38P #8 Kaiden Guhle (D) Date of birth: Jan 18, 2002 Height/Weight: 6'3" / 187lbs Born: Sherwood Park, AB, CAN Shoots: L 2019-2020 regular season stats: 11G-29A-40P in 45GP for Prince Albert Raiders (WHL) NHL equivalency: 17P #9 Braden Schenider (D) Date of birth: Sep 20, 2001 Height/Weight: 6'2" / 209lbs Born: Prince Albert, SK, CAN Shoots: R 2019-2020 regular season stats: 7G-35A-42P in 60GP for Sudbury Wolves (WHL) NHL equivalency: 17P #10 Dawson Mercer (RW) Date of birth: Oct 27, 2001 Height/Weight: 6'0" / 179lbs Born: Carbonear, NL, CAN Shoots: R 2019-2020 combined regular season stats: 24G-36A-60P in 42GP for Drummondville and Chicoutimi (QMJHL) NHL equivalency: 33P

Troof. For instance, the Hackensack Bulls had a train that would interupt play as it passed through the outfield: