IKnowPhysics

It's a little surprising, but there are some interesting changes and developments that are driving it. First, there is a MASSIVE defense player usage difference under Granato/Wilford than under Steve Smith (both under Housley and Krueger). Smith put Risto and McCabe on the most defensive zone faceoffs and against the toughest competition, sheltering the ever loving F out of some of the other defensemen, both in competition and Dzone faceoffs. Granato/Wilford don't linematch against competition- the usage is nearly flat. They only shelter Butcher. Dahlin and Joker get a few more Ozone faceoffs and Pysyk gets a few more Dzone faceoffs, but the competition load is nearly flat. Maybe that's because there's no "stud" defenseman or maybe it's more development-centric to play everyone equally as long as they don't struggle. Second, there has been player improvement. Bryson is one of the most improved players from last year*. Colin Miller's role has gone from sheltered to top-level and hasn't suffered, meaning his game has elevated with his workload. Third, forward support has been much better this season than last. While a couple players have increased CF/60 at the expense of CA/60 (Skinner, Olofsson, for example), many have improved CA/60 drastically (R2, Eakin, Caggiula, Asplund all allow many fewer shots than before). *In fact, in net Corsi rate improvements (CF/60[2022-2021] - CA/60[2022-2021]), the most improved players are, in order: Asplund +14.37 (great improvement to both CF and CA) Thompson +9.96 (great improvement to CF) Mittelstadt +9.52 (small sample, but best improvement in CF, slight decline in CA) Bryson +8.52 (slight inprovement to CF, but great improvement to CA, this against harder competition than last year) R2 +7.27 (massive improvement to CA/60)

5v5, Sabres are 16th in CA/60, 21st in HDCA/60, and 18th in xGA/60. Not exactly the biggest strength, more middle-of-the-road, but D is definitely not the most deficient area on the team (and it could possibly be the strongest area currently)... The goalies are probably the biggest problem, which is why we're also 26th in both GA/60 and HDGA/60. Goalies are at 24th in SV% and 23rd in HDSV%. Sabres offense is also an enormous problem: we're 26th in CF/60, 31st in HDCF/60, 23rd in GF/60, and 32nd in xGF/60. We're not generating enough 5v5 offense, and when we are, it's not high danger opportunities. Frankly, I'm surprised we're up at 23rd in GF/60, and our PDO is pretty close to one (we're not particularly lucky or unlucky). Powerplay is ugly too: somehow 19th in GF/60 despite being 27th in CF/60 and 32nd in both HDCF/60 and xGF/60. PK is middle of the road: 16th in CA/60, 19th in GA/60, 22nd in xGA/60. So is our D group +Power, Samuelsson, and Johnson suddenly a contender-worthy back end? No, not without major development and likely a significant acquisition. But it doesn't matter anyways, because we're not sniffing the postseason until we fix the goalies and develop scoring.

Precisely. It is what is it is, and to many people, it's a spectacle that's really quite enjoyable.

IKnowI'mBoredAtWorkSomeFridayAfternoons!

Not sure what your threshold is at for gatekeeping "true Sabre all star." Briere was 07. There have been plenty of qualified Sabres since then. Jeff Skinner 2019 in the middle of his 40 goal campaign, finished 12th in league. He went along side Eichel, so the "one player per team requirement diluting the all star game" or whatever doesn't apply. Pominville 2012 in the middle of a 73 point campaign, finished 19th in the league. Vanek 2009 in his second 40+ goal season, 8th in NHL. Campbell 2008 in his 62 point season, 3rd in NHL. If your threshold is PHWA all star teams, then Miller 2010, Campbell 2008, and Vanek 2007 qualified, but Briere didn't. If the metric is "highest achieving players in the NHL their respective years," it's easy to argue that Okposo, O'Reilly, and Z aren't "true all stars." [start half-assed rant] But this supposes that the All Star Game is some exhibition of pure skill and is exclusive to the highest performing players in the league. It's not. It never was. Even back in the 1950s: The format and selection have always been *****. Because it's not a competitive match, it's a marketing showcase dickaround pickup game comprised of a mix of the fans' favorite players and representatives from every team. If you want good hockey, watch the Cup or Olympic finals. [end half-assed rant]

Skinner now on a 31 goal pace.

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/33043883/nhl-all-star-game-2022-rosters-schedule-skills-competition-how-watch 7 for 11 plus three alternates and 9 for eleven on positions from each team, partly because they haven't selected last men in.

Love it. # of players now making between $700k and $800k is 16, counting Rochester and Cy Hgsn; eight if you limit it to the NHL roster, IR, and covid. Bruins paid $5Mx4 years. The Sabres would have had to pay him a fortune and term to stay, which would hamstring us with UPL's expected money and playing time. Not saying KA has managed the goalies well, but they were getting much better value out of Anderson than Ullmark during a rebuilding year. Correct. They know their job isn't to make excuses, it's to improve the team. And their frustrations mirror ours, but they're all-in on the long term development. As Hoppe wrote just this morning:

Devils advocate, only because the longer term effects are unknown: professional sports franchise values have tracked better than most index funds over the past decades, and allowing passive investors to cash in on rising franchise values in professional sports while giving cash-strapped majority owners financial flexibility to maintain expensive operations during revenue-tight covid years is a win-win-win-win for majority owners, passive minority investors, the continuity of the on-ice product, and the value for the fans of the franchises. It's ok to not give a ***** about anything but the on-ice results, but from an owner's perspective, it's likely beneficial to have increased financial flexibility and what will probably end up being an overall increase in franchise values that stems from the increased liquidity of a formerly restricted market. Now that a new market has emerged for minority ownership, the demand for minority shares could float the overall franchise values, including the majority shares.

Hypothetically, Houser should perform as well as Tokarski, which is mid-level backup-ish, and will very likely be better than Subban or Dell.

Fair enough. https://sports.yahoo.com/mls-private-equity-rules-500m-050137968.html https://www.foxbusiness.com/sports/mlb-ownership-rule-change-private-equity

US sports leagues, including the NHL, that allow private equity minority owners have rules that require the minority stake be passively owned. No day-to-day control of the team, and certainly no influence on personnel movement. https://www.ft.com/content/252d8eb0-9478-41c3-a521-8c4c9b34c179 So, none of this: === Yes. No.

I'm on this train. With 26 point in 20 AHL GP, Quinn's NHLe is 52 points right now. Sabres have 48 games left to play and Quinn has 30 points to score to be on that hypothetical pace. He could pop off a threefer just about anytime.

Absolutely true, although resigning instead of firing is a little unique. I'd even go so far to say that if somebody tracked teams "causing" midseason coach changes over the past 25 years, Sabres would be the number one perpetrator by far.

Well, maybe he'd be alright, played pretty well in Dallas two years ago... Dear lord baby 6lb 9oz goaltending Jesus, please spare us from Dobber. Our Lady of Blessed U's and K's, don't fail us now!

It would make sense if they did, as you pointed out, for three lines of 2F 1D. But it's the NHL, so who knows.

Last year: 7F 2D Atlantic 5F 4D Metro 7F 2D Central 7F 2D Pac 2019: 7F 2D Atlantic 6F 3D Metro 7F 2D Central 6F 3D Pac So maybe.

None of the Sabres will win the division voting. The league will pick the Buffalo player. It'll be Okposo or Dahlin unless Okposo is injured or Thompson somehow goes on a tear before they announce. The Atlantic will be: F Pastrnak (BOS) F Larkin (DET) F Huberdeau (FLA) F Tkachuk (OTT) F Toffoli (MTL) F Stamkos (TBL) F Mathews (TOR) D Dahlin (BUF) D Hedman (TBL) G Bobrovsky (FLA) G Campbell (TOR) If they go with Okposo, Dahlin won't go, Ekblad would be included as the 2nd D, and then that bumps Bob in favor of Vasilevsky (because no team gets three+ unless they're hosting), then Stamkos won't go (same reason). This is if everyone agrees to go, which doesn't happen; Rask sat out last year, Mathews went but didn't play.

Rangers are cheap hacks.

Hard agree. It's tradition for the best defensemen on this team to be the target of an undue amount of derision. It's always been this way. Dahlin, Risto, Myers, Ehrhoff, Campbell, Kalinin, Zhitnik, Galley, Smehlik, Bodger... toss in Regehr... all have been relentlessly ***** on at some point or another. It's usually one D and one forward getting the brunt of the flak in good times and bad. (Skinner, Okposo, Moulson, Hodgson, Stafford, Hecht, Connolly, Pyatt, Grosek, Audette...) The targets are never the actual worst player(s) on the team, it's always whoever is perceived to be falling most short of the imaginary fan-set expectation, even if it was 200% on the GM and coaches for forcing awful player usage to either set up awful expectations or awful opportunities to succeed. Player names and anecdotal plays are more visible and easier for fans to call out than rosters, systems, and usage. And damn is it tiresome. I literally muttered, 'oh look, Risto's gone, so it's Dahlin's turn now' about a month ago. Nevermind Dahlin leading D in points, 2nd most in 5v5 GF/60, 2nd least in 5v5 GA/60. Also, in before anyone puts words in my mouth to strawman me that these players shouldn't receive any criticism.

Then why ask the question in bad faith?

In xGA/60. But if you really want to be a snide wanker without putting your own work in to answer your own question, here you go. What you're describing would be recorded more specifically as a "high danger" corsi or goal allowed. Sabres are 12th (about league median) in HDCA/60 at 11.71, and 3rd worst at 1.76 HDGA/60. The defense is limiting high danger chances to about what the league average is. The goalies are letting those chances in at a bottom-of-the-league rate. Again, it's the goalies. Full stop.

Thread.

Collectively, the goalies are worse than the defense and it's not remotely close. Look at the difference between 5v5 xGA/60 and actual GA/60 compared to league averages: xGA/60 is based on actual shot metrics, so the defense is keeping us about average in what goals we should be allowing based on real shots and chances. But we're disastrously bad based on what we're actually allowing as goals scored. That is 100% on the goalies, full stop. And it's not all of the goalies' individual fault. Andersson played above replacement level (not great, but okay). Tokarski played replacement level (not good). Dell played sub-replacement level (very bad). Subban should have been an improvement over Dell (and allow UPL to stay in Rochester).