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IKnowPhysics

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Everything posted by IKnowPhysics

  1. Collectively, the goalies are worse than the defense and it's not remotely close. Look at the difference between 5v5 xGA/60 and actual GA/60 compared to league averages: xGA/60 is based on actual shot metrics, so the defense is keeping us about average in what goals we should be allowing based on real shots and chances. But we're disastrously bad based on what we're actually allowing as goals scored. That is 100% on the goalies, full stop. And it's not all of the goalies' individual fault. Andersson played above replacement level (not great, but okay). Tokarski played replacement level (not good). Dell played sub-replacement level (very bad). Subban should have been an improvement over Dell (and allow UPL to stay in Rochester).
  2. PegulaJet getting 6K to Sunrise on time so they don't have to start Dell.
  3. Ahh, that's why. We didn't want Dell and UPL, we wanted Subban and UPL. Dell and UPL would have been a disaster. Also, good on KA for executing the trade before announcing Tokarski.
  4. So close. 1 year left on contract (this year) at $850k AAV. But his salary ($950k) prorated for 60 games left is $695, even closer! Anyways, here's a bit of work about what we're looking for from Subban. He keeps Dell out of the net and UPL in Rochester. That's it. Definitions: GSAA = Goals Saved Above Average = (League Sv% * SA) – GA; GSAx = Goals Saved Above Expected = xGA – GA; each projected to an equivalent 82 games for comparison. Positive is good, negative is bad. Narration: In his six games this season, Anderson was playing about as well as Ullmark did last year (losing Ullmark, btw, was quietly a big damn deal). Tokarski's performance has probably improved this year (he's saving more of what's expected), but his outcomes haven't been as good as last year (he and the team are giving up way more goals when he's in net). We've kicked the tires on Dell, but pretty much everyone knows he's not performing. Subban isn't a starting goalie and he may never be one, but he performed measurably better last year than Tokarksi and definitely Dell have this year. Granato said last week that they don't like what they see with Anderson's lingering injury, so we'll take anything that improves upon the Tokarski/Dell combo, especially if it's free. If we don't want goaltending to be a net negative, we either need Anderson healthy or UPL promoted, but we should probably let UPL work in Rochester. Subban buys us the luxury of keeping UPL in Rochester while Anderson's out.
  5. Krueger's system sapped any goal scoring our talent could muster, which then sapped any point-based stats. Just getting out of that system should (seriously) gain us 80 goals, even with replacement players. Sabres GF/GP this year is 3.00. In 2018-19 it was 2.70. Under Krueger last year it was 2.07. 80 ***** goals.
  6. Power now has 18P in 12GP, which has a ridiculous NHLe of 41P in 82 NHL GP. Dahlin's NHLe projecting his rookie year was 27P (he would actually produce 44P in 82GP).
  7. Searching for scenarios where Kane works out favorably for BUF.
  8. No, no that'll never work. Hire him to head coach.
  9. No, you're right. Sabres should fire Matt Ellis and hire Tyler Bertuzzi as an assistant coach.
  10. Not only is Dahlin self-aware about what he needs to work on without being coached on it, he's taking initiative and putting the work in to improve.
  11. Both Krebs and Cozens were dominant players in the WJC for Team Canada. WJC highlights are a gold mine for Krebs. Krebs played on Cozens' line, not all the time, but here and there in the U20 in 2020-21 and U18 in 2018-19. Here's some bits where they connected: U20: Krebs from a Cozens setup: (FWIW, Peterka was in on both Germany goals in this game) U18: Newhook finishes a Krebs-Cozens setup: Krebs sets up Cozens:
  12. We're not trading Eichel to be lucky to get a Reinhart. We're trading Eichel for a developing Eichel and the risk mitigation of that player not developing into Eichel. Hold the line.
  13. I think that was the jumbotron game too. And it seemed like half of Southbay was in attendance, because I couldn't go to a bar without being recognized for about a year after that. It got to be comical how frequently randos would walk up to me and ask me about it, so much so that my friends would just shake their heads and laugh every time it happened. Even a local Kings fan, who incidentally happened to be a little person, bought me a beer about a month after that simply because he liked the cut of my jib on the 'tron; super nice guy. I was the *****in' California Sabres mascot for a while. Not the only time I've been on the broadcast though. And not the only team I've been regularly featured on the jumbotron for. Good times. I was consistently on the broadcast last night too, but to my knowledge, it was only the back of my head. Sunday... might be different.
  14. ANYONE WANNA GUESS WHAT WOLANIN'S SALARY IS? YOU ALREADY KNOW WHAT IT IS, BUT I'MA TELL YA ANYWAYS.
  15. Well gee whiz. I guess Granato was right to dismiss fictitious "reports" regarding an idea that had zero merit. But by all means, someone here wants to die on a hill defending this. Raise your hand if you want to defend this idea.
  16. This. Separately, an Eichel trade should maximize long term return. Period.
  17. lol, the Dahlin-sucks-at-defense-and-should-play-forward thread got deleted.
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