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Everything posted by Jorcus
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Yes the skating issue is a big problem. He never was very fast but post injury he is even slower than he was. He only has 53 speed bursts above 20 mph. Most top 6 forwards have twice as many for the amount of games he has played. His one real asset is his shot but in order to get it off he has to be in the clear and that just does not happen all that often. He is a hesitant pick a spot shooter to often the lane closes on him as he is aiming on the goal. He needs to one time more shots. The other issue is he does nothing else to help the team. No penalty kill time, no face offs, low hit counts. If your only asset is your ability to score you better be scoring. There are a number Rochester guys aiming for his spot. If any of them were right handed shots they might have taken it already.
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I was going to point this out somewhere I guess this thread is as good as any about player development and time. Maybe this is all BS and it has more to do with point production but there is a point here about player progression. https://dobberhockey.com/2022/06/30/breakout-threshold-bt-using-career-games-played-to-determine-breakout-potential/ The main claim of this article are as follows. Average-sized forwards (between 5-10 and 6-2, or between 171 and 214 pounds) need 200 NHL regular season games to figure it out. At that point, they should show what they will be when fully developed. The player is comfortable with the pace of the game and the power of opposing players and it starts to show in his production. The uptick in production is sharp and noticeable. Generally speaking, with lots of leeway and exceptions, of course, look for 25% or higher year-over-year increase. That doesn’t mean these players have peaked. Once they hit that breakout threshold (BT), these players should continue to improve for several more years and should hit the pinnacle of production between the ages of 25 and 28. Forwards then play at or near this level until approximately 32 years of age (unless they are generational players such as Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin, who could keep producing at an incredible rate well into their late 30s). At this point, when it generally comes to average-sized players, they begin to decline. Some skilled defensemen of average size may also use this 200-game BT as well. Bigger defensemen and exceptionally-sized forwards need 400 NHL regular-season games. We define 'exceptional' here as 5-9, or 170 pounds or less, on the small side, while on the bigger end we use 6-3, 215 pounds, or more. For monster forwards, this is due to simple physics. It takes longer to adapt to your body. A lot of these kids were 5-11 at age 16 and suddenly at age 18, they are 6-4 and weigh an additional 30 pounds. They need a bit more time for their hands and feet to catch up to what they were doing as a teenager and they take time to figure out that they can use their size and strength to their advantage. For diminutive forwards, they take longer to adapt to the new speed. They dominated junior hockey with quickness and fancy moves and some adjustments need to be made (and some never make them). These smaller forwards also take longer to earn more opportunities from coaches who tend to lean on the bigger players. Defensemen take longer to learn the defensive side of the game and earn the coach's trust. Our Current team in terms of games played excluding rookies. Benson 137 Docker 135 Bryson 251 Byram 237 Clifton 375 Dahlin 500 Greenway 435 Lafferty 340 Malenstyn 174 McLeod 289 Norris 239 Peterka 229 Power 236 Quinn 169 Samuelsson 203 Tage 439 Tuch 527 Zucker 761 Krebs 287 It makes you wonder what the future holds for NHL careers for a number of these players. Power, Byram and even Samuelsson would be on the path you would expect a jump out of them. Malenstyn is an interesting candidate to break out. The hope is we have not seen the best of Peterka and Norris yet. Well we have not even seen Norris. Some of the other guys need more games or have enough that we pretty much know what they can do.
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The Total Irrelevance of the Buffalo Sabres
Jorcus replied to CallawaySabres's topic in The Aud Club
Dahlin is very important but I do remember when that was said about Samuelsson. Dahlin was not going to win us the Flyer game if UPL is not going to stop pucks. It's not just an if then logic. He certainly helps our chances but the Sabres don't win for other reasons as well. -
GDT: Sabres @ Washington Capitals 3/30/25 3:00 PM ET; MSG/MNMT, ESPN+
Jorcus replied to DarthEbriate's topic in The Aud Club
The way I look at this game I am just going to take the 24 hours and enjoy it. I am not going to pick on the scabs of this team after they drop a snow man on the first place caps. I know Santa clause is not real but I still enjoy Christmas. This years Sabres are the best last place team I can remember following. -
Novikov can defend close to the net. A skill that is lacking on the Sabres. Bryson is puck mover, not a people mover. I am not worried about the Bryson contract. They can bail out on that with no problem. At the end of the day Komorov may end up being a better defender. He is faster and he can lower a boom. Being a right shot does not hurt his chances. He needs another year though.
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He is playing center on the Amerks. Long term who knows? He is getting bigger. Had an injury in late October and worked on fitness during the down time. In this interview video he looks more physically mature than he was.
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He now plus 20 on +/- leads all Amerk forwards. And all AHL rookies.
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Detroit lives and dies by their power play. Its no wonder they like to take dives. 5 on 5 they are not a very good but the power play is great. They are another team that does not have good goal tending. That problem kills a lot of best laid plans. Overall I don't think they are a bad team.
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Mitts with Pasta last night was a disaster -5 for both of them. Bad goaltending contributed.
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Keep in mind that since Cozens was traded to Ottawa the first 4 games were against teams outside of the playoffs. After that they beat Toronto and then lost to Montreal and Colorado. They Beat NJ but lost to the Sabres. Lucky for them they only play 4 games of the last 12 against teams in the playoffs. Cozens showed up at a very good time for Ottawa and it may shade his impact somewhat in the near term.
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Peterka’s next contract; trade, bridge or lock-up long-term?
Jorcus replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
I would still focus on our 2 weak points which is 2nd line right wing and top 4 right handed D. Would Washington give up Aliaksei Protus and Trevor Van Riemsdyk for Byram? Maybe not alone but it would be a place to start. Get those two you have the money to resign Peterka and McCloud and 2 big holes are filled in for now. -
Well he has hit something. He has committed 7 penalties in 5 games. He does have those 4 goals and a helper though.
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Peterka’s next contract; trade, bridge or lock-up long-term?
Jorcus replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
I really hope the Sabres have some back up plans in case this happens. My guess is Byram would attract a higher price on the open market. It's a harder position to fill than a wing and If Calgary is going to to do it I think Byram is the target. The last thing the Sabres need right now is a bunch of middle round picks in 2026. They have to have some trades to counter act the move. JJ might draw interest but giving him a large long term deal seems to carry more risk. Our "pipeline" may be able to recover from losing him if the price gets too high but it will hurt in the short term. McCloud is going to be of interest as well. He could certainly get a mid tier offer sheet. This offer sheet system sucks because the NHL does not differentiate the difference between the 1st pick in the draft and the 32nd pick in the draft. They have to find a better way to compensate teams for losing players. -
Peterka’s next contract; trade, bridge or lock-up long-term?
Jorcus replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
I don't think that would work. A team would not give up a 1st and 3rd for 1 year and a promise that can be broken if the player does not like what's going on after the year is up. We could match 6.8 for one year without a problem. -
Comparing Dahlin to Makar is like comparing Messier to Gretzky. Both great but in different ways. Dahlin has more power and 2 way play. He will fight you and throw you on the ice. Makar is better with his stick. He is quicker and handles the puck with speed. Both exceptional talents. I think most people around here under rate Byram. He is only 23 years old and has played 232 NHL games. Dahlin started earlier but he really started to blossom after he played 200 games. Byram is fast, He carries the puck well, he is a very good passer. Considering he is on the 2nd power play unit he plays a lot of minutes. At 30 years old you could say Devon Towes is better than Byram right now. Towes never even started playing in the NHL hockey until he was 24 years old. He is about as good as he will ever be. In the long run If Byram stays healthy he will have a way better career. I am pretty convinced we are going to lose Byram. Adams or whomever better get something really good in return. We can't give him up for draft picks. He is worth a lot.
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Best Pizza City Rankings: Buffalo #4 Cool... ROC #1 WHAT?!?!
Jorcus replied to JoeSchmoe's topic in The Aud Club
When you look at the criteria used for the rankings it rewards the cities that have the most pizza places, the cheapest prices and how many on line searches there are. So too me that indicates we are lazy and cheap. Kind of like our hockey team at the moment. -
Checkers played a very good defensive game. As soon as a puck got to an Amerk someone was on them. Amerks eventually got pressure on the Checkers but much like the Sabres they just can not get a good power play going. The one goal the Checkers scored on Levi was as a result of a 2 on 1 when the player was sprung at the end of a penalty. I think the Amerks were caught unaware the power play was over. I don't think Levi was banging his stick loud enough if at all. Rathbone punched old friend Rasmus Asplund in the face.
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There are some rumors around the internet that the Penguins and the Black Hawks may be willing to go up to 8.5 Million for Peterka on an offer sheet. The return would be a 1st a 2nd and a 3rd in 2026. As I have said before even though the offer sheet has been seldom used, I think it is becoming too compelling to ignore. The return for getting someone taken is not enough and it takes too long to recoup the return. In other words it will keep the bottom teams on the bottom. Whether this happens remains to be seen but with McCloud, Byram, and Levi vulnerable as well it's might be a big problem for the Sabres.
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I did not advocate sending him down. I think he can play a third line role and play on the PK where it is more of a half court game. I just can't see him scoring a lot of goals unless there is physical improvement. I don't think the role model thing is going to change how anyone else plays on this team.
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I counted 7 times he was off his skates in the 1st period of the Las Vegas game. You just can't play in the NHL on your knees or your ass. He is willing to go to the net but he gets tossed around a lot. I would say his lack of physicality is holding him back among other things like being slow going end to end and having one of the slowest shots in the NHL. There are some positives he good on his edges and can dog pucks. He plays a smart game. He can play a good half ice game. Going end to end he gets caught on break a ways or seems to trail on 2 on 1 breaks unless he has a big head start. Can he develop a harder shot? Maybe. Can he get faster? That's a lot harder to do.
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Like most players there are good and bad parts to his game. In physical terms he is certainly capable. He is fast enough, strong on the boards and a good fore check. He certainly puts forth effort on most nights. He will attack players in the D zone instead of just waiting for a puck to come to him. The main problem is his passing seems to be pretty bad. He plays erratically in the offensive zone. It's like the other players seem to have no idea what he is going to do with the puck. He does not shoot enough when he has open looks. I am not sure how well he sees the ice. It's like he has to calm his offensive game down just a little in order to make better plays. He could turn out to be a pretty good player if he can settle the offensive game down some.
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A lot of this is mechanics. You make your decisions with the final roster cut down and then if you have players that have to clear waivers you are kind of stuck with what you have until post trade deadline. To replace Quinn you have to do something with him. Then if you bring up a veteran Amerk you have to keep him or waive him. Sure it's frustrating for the coach to keep playing guys who don't produce. If your GM is not going to help the situation it gets worse. They keep bringing up Kozak and Rosen because they can clear waivers. Or GM is scared of losing anyone or getting ripped off so there were very few moves. I think Rousek would have helped this team more than Kozak because he is a good puck distributor. He would have to clear waivers so we get Kozak. I mean if we lose Rousek then we lose him. I don't see a plan for him anyway. When thinking about setting up the team in the summer having rotational parts are important. I don't think we started the year with anyone that could go back to the Amerks. Kulich got up due to injuries. Well Benson could go to Jr's but they were not going to do that. The competition takes place in the summer. After that you are patching holes. I think it comes down to dealing with you problems via trade or replacement as opposed to waking a player up with competition. If it ain't working you just have to move on.
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Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power named to Athletic u25 team.
Jorcus replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
The Ottawa Senators. -
Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power named to Athletic u25 team.
Jorcus replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
I don't know what they based this on. But since Aliaksei Protus is not on this list I don't agree with it. I could Argue Connor McMichael should be on the list as well but left wings are always deeper than right wings so could let that slide.