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Everything posted by Jorcus
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I don't know if you ment to imply that Florida is a fast team. They are strong and disciplined but about average when it comes to team speed. Certainly not as fast as the Oilers. Just wonder if the the goaltenders were swapped would the narrative be different where people pointing toward speed and skill is the formula and not puck possession teams who just grind on you. I think either or can work. We just can't under estimate how good Bobrovsky has been when it has mattered the most.
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Cozens was below average shooting. Krebs and Quinn were average. I believe both scored more goals away from Benson than with him. But the opposite is also true because Benson did not convert goals at a high rate his line mates assist rate was also impacted. I expect his goal scoring average to go up. It has to if he is to be a prominent forward. It's long way from where he was last year to being a #1 left wing. I just wish I knew what the plan for that position was because I don't see a good one right now.
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I don't agree with blaming Zach Bensons numbers on other players on the team. Just about every other player scored at or above expected goals last year according to Money Puck. Who was the worst? Zach Benson. https://moneypuck.com/player.htm?p=8484145 0.98 Expected Goals Per 60 Minutes Played in 2024 10 Goals From 18.08 Expected Goals During 1,111 Minutes Played 12.68 Expected Goals After Adjusting For Shooting Talent Predicted Shooting Talent is 29.9% Below Average for 2024 Not only is that the lowest predicted shooting talent on the team as far as I can tell it was the lowest in the NHL. If not it is pretty close. You can't blame that on other players and if anything you could turn around and say some of the others scoring was depressed because of it.
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It seems odd that top 6 is a distinction for a forward and not top 3. There are a number of lower scoring forwards on what would be the group between 4 and 6 but few on good teams between 1 and 3. The more I think about how many goals Tage Thompson scored with sub optimal line mates I can't help but be impressed with what he did. Although he started the year with Tuch and Peterka after the second line failed and Tuch was moved off he spent a Lot of time with Kulich and or Benson. No other high goal scoring forward had less qualified help than he did. Some examples. Draisaitl / Arvidson, Podkolzin or almost equal with McDavid and Hyman. Nylander/ Pacioretty, Tavares Ovechkin/ Strome, Protas Pasternack/ Zacha, Geekie Point/ Kucherov, Gentzel Connor/ Scheifele, Vilardi I could keep going but you should get the idea by now. Thompson must be going out of his mind. I don't know how he felt about Skinner but the guy could put pucks in the net. The same goes for Peterka. What now for a left wing on the first line? Thompson plays better when he plays with guys he trusts at his skill level. If he does not trust what the other guy is doing he plays a very individual game. I don't see the trust with Benson or Kulich that I would like to see with Thompson on a regular basis. Those guys have a lot of development ahead before they should be on the top line.
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The information is there on NHL edge. Just select by team, scroll down to shot location, then select goals. Then you can chose high danger, mid range and long range to break down the areas they define. High danger is in the crease or directly in front of the net. Mid range is between the dots to just outside the top of the circles. Long range is everything else except shots from the deep wings, behind the net or past the blue line. Not sure why they don't count shots from the deep wings. Thompson had 5 goals from those areas last year that would not show up in the other categories.
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I think the Mid and long range scoring is sustainable given the types of shooters we have on the team in general. We were above 90% in every category of shot speed and if anything we just added more with Kesselring.
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I see a lot of people putting Quinn on the left wing. He has enough trouble defending on his right to make me think that is not a good idea. My guess is that for now Zucker, Benson, Greenway, Krebs and Kulich are going to rotate up and down the left wing spots. The chances of the opening night line up lasting more than a few games with Ruff is pretty slim.
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Sabres sign Connor Timmins to a 2 year 2.2 Million Dollar AAV contract
Jorcus replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
AFP analytics on cap wages had Timmins at 2x2.67M projected. Not sure why it was that much. Pretty far off of what he got. -
He crossed my mind last night. Now that I think of it Madden would be another.
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I am not a big fan of Sabbath or Metal but Paranoid is one of the catchiest songs ever written. I think you could also look at some early Sabbath and make a case for proto punk as well as Grunge with the detuned guitars. One thing about Ozzy is that he is one of the few human beings who I think has reached cartoon status. I don't mean this in a negative way. To reach human cartoon status you have to be instantly recognizable, be totally unique and be well liked in spite of any flaws they may have. Some people have actually been turned into cartoons like Mike Tyson. I think Mr T might have been a cartoon. Hulk Hogan was a manufactured character but he certainly sells it. Muhammed Ali could have been one. There are not many individual musicians you could point to and say they are cartoon status. Maybe Elton John because he is very famous and had the costumes. It's hard to put my finger on another one. Alice Cooper would be in the same mold as Ozzy just not sure if as many people would recognize him. Anyway Rock on Ozzy.
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I wonder why the return is so little?
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I like the signing. I like watching Byram play. I think he is going to improve going forward. One thing keeps crossing my mind. Now that Power has his RHD to play with what if he is the same guy as last year? I hope he is not but if we off loaded Byram and we are still disappointed with Powers play what would our next move be? With Byram we still have the option of trading Power if it came to that. At least we have another year or so to find out unless a great trade comes along.
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I don't think Levi is eligible for an offer sheet. Some qualifier about number of NHL games played.
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I don't think they want JBD now that they have Timmins. Someone has to go If Byram and Muel are staying.
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This is the last year you can take advantage of that LTIR loophole I think.
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Radim Mrtka, 6'6" RHD drafted 9th overall by Sabres
Jorcus replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
So safe to assume we would have taken him at 7. No lottery regrets? -
So your Trading Tuch, Thompson or Dahlin over Benson?
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I think Dallas will want either Kulich or Benson in a trade package because they are cost controlled and can play a role now. The bigger issue is being able to sign Robertson. You can't give stuff away unless you are sure that you are getting some years out of him. If he is willing then I think it is a deal you have to make.
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Chad D: expect a Byram trade at or around the draft
Jorcus replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
On the Byram points. The only argument against the metrics point I have is that it is a big challenge to play with Byrson and Clifton or even Power and help carry them. Maybe the metrics are right but there a lot of permutations that I question about using them to write a player off. In the D zone he is better at defending the rush, (makes good use of his speed to get back and drive attackers wide) than playing in a box and pushing out or blocking shots. A lot of times the results of defending around the net depend on the communication with the other players on the ice. The Sabres in general had a problem with this. It could be a Lindy thing but not knowing what the other player is going to do will have you make mistakes or make you cover for theirs. If nothing else Byram seems more than willing to work on his flaws and certainly has the skill set to improve. In the O zone I don't think he is a better pure shooter than Power or Dahlin but I might be the best passer on the team, especially on the breakouts. Playing next to Dahlin he was expected to be more stay at home guy which limits his chances to score. He did not rotate down behind the net very often. He also had limited power play time limiting his scoring. At 246 games he is right in the zone to take a big step forward. Where ever he ends up playing I am pretty confident he will be very good. -
Marty Biron had commented a few times that if Peterka were to hold out during camp or into the season that it would have been bad for this team who is needs to get off to a good start. The Sabres were in no position to go though that this year so away he goes. We often talk about extending players with contracts that did not work out. I remember Adams talking about extensions last summer but nothing happened. Peterka because of his 2nd round contract was the lowest paid player on the team. We certainly could have signed him for what he left for so it's safe to say he really did not want to be here. It seems as if there were a lot of discussions so this trade was not a knee jerk reaction trade. I think a lot of the other players thrown around were probably Peterka plus something or did not fit into Adams plan for roster construction. He was a fun player to watch but if we win more games this year then we did the right thing.
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Do You Like The JJP for Kesselring/Doan Trade RIGHT NOW?
Jorcus replied to bob_sauve28's topic in The Aud Club
I voted yes because we were not good last year. I like Peterka but I want the team to win so getting better on defense is certainly what is needed. Now we need a 1st line left wing and a decent backup goaltender and just maybe we can put a good season together.