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Everything posted by RochesterExpat
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The Sabres will make the playoffs this season if ___________
RochesterExpat replied to #freejame's topic in The Aud Club
The most Buffalo thing would be to finally make the playoffs, Armageddon happens before the first game is played, and the playoffs are cancelled. -
Realistically It’s Zucker or Greenway. A Rochester call up slots in on the bottom six (likely Rousek).
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On the topic of our need for a top-6 upgrade
RochesterExpat replied to Archie Lee's topic in The Aud Club
Did you read my post? I addressed my top 6 issue in my post. It’s a lack of depth. Moving Benson in a trade to upgrade his position doesn’t fix the depth problem. -
I can see a sophomore slump from the coaching change, but I also think Lindy is going to appreciate Benson’s drive and I think Benson is a coachable player. It just might be a tough start for him. I expect him to really come into his game once the adjustment period (or sophomore slump) ends. Buffalo can’t send him to Rochester though so he’s going to need to figure it out fast. I’m going to say he has 68GP with 13G and 24A for 37P. He has a slow start, an extended stretch around Thanksgiving without production, and sits in the press box for a bit on at least two occasions. Then he turns it on in the latter half of the season. So his first 30 games will be something like 2 goals and 7 assists. The next 38 will be 11 goals and 17 assists.
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On the topic of our need for a top-6 upgrade
RochesterExpat replied to Archie Lee's topic in The Aud Club
I don’t understand why you’re so down on Quinn who is likely a 60 point player this season. That aside, the issue with the Top 6 isn’t with the current players on the roster, but the lack of proven depth (“proven” because players like Kulich don’t count). Yes, Greenway can come in and play a few games if a short-term injury happens, but the team is in trouble if either Quinn or Peterka regress, the other forwards (Cozens in particular) don’t return to form, or someone is out long term. Quinn was at a 27 goal pace last season despite injury. Peterka scored 28. While there is argument to be made Quinn is injury prone, the reality is he isn’t having recurring issues. It’s just a run of bad luck similar to Ullmark being “injury prone” when he was with Buffalo. You want to upgrade the top 6 which is fine. Most people here will agree to that; however, you’re discussing trading Benson or Quinn for a top 6 player. Assuming you find an upgrade over Benson on the market (Quinn will reasonably hit 30g this season and there just isn’t anyone available who replaces that, sorry), you’re now trading a player who could play in the top six for another top six player. That doesn’t solve the bigger issue of depth. It’s fine to add to the top six with the goal to bump Benson down the lineup, but, again, trading Benson away doesn’t solve the fundamental weakness of depth. You’re going to need to move a bottom six player like Krebs, prospects and picks to actually improve the roster. -
On the topic of our need for a top-6 upgrade
RochesterExpat replied to Archie Lee's topic in The Aud Club
Gotcha. I don’t see the lines as set in stone either, but Tuch pairs well with Thompson because the play styles so I expect them to be kept together. That being said, I’m a big fan of trying a top six of: JJP - Thompson - Quinn Benson - Cozens - Tuch Your first line has the high motor guy (Peterka) with a serious secondary scoring threat of Quinn—who also happens to be a criminally underrated playmaker. JJP is also a scoring threat, but his goals tend to be less finesse than either Thompson or Quinn. But having Quinn with Thompson will take pressure off Tage and give him more opportunities. I just don’t see how you move Quinn to RW1 without JJP as well. Unless you’re trading for a high motor top line left wing. Plus now your second line is set with two guys who can “shelter” Benson (not that he really needs it). It also takes some two-way pressure off Cozens by adding Tuch. Tuch and Cozens were both 30 goal scorers two season ago. Let Benson use his IQ and playmaking to the fullest by giving him two heavy forechecking targets. -
On the topic of our need for a top-6 upgrade
RochesterExpat replied to Archie Lee's topic in The Aud Club
For clarity, are you saying Quinn is a lock for the first line or that he’s at the caliber of a first line winger? The latter I agree with. The former I don’t see happening if Tuch and Thompson are kept together which I expect to happen. I think Quinn on the right is better than shifting him to left so pairing him with Cozens is a better utilization. -
Trade: C Ryan McLeod - Oilers for Matt Savoie
RochesterExpat replied to tom webster's topic in The Aud Club
The biggest issue I see at this point is any injury in the top six is going to create one massive glaring hole in the roster. -
Trade: C Ryan McLeod - Oilers for Matt Savoie
RochesterExpat replied to tom webster's topic in The Aud Club
That’s because the Oilers only played McDrai for most of the second and all of the third. It was wild. -
Like Zucker, we overpaid, but it’s for one year so the net impact is minimal as it’s just opportunity cost and it isn’t like we’re spending to the cap anyway.
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Trade: C Ryan McLeod - Oilers for Matt Savoie
RochesterExpat replied to tom webster's topic in The Aud Club
I don’t think Savoie is a better prospect over Östlund. Östlund projects to be a center. Savoie is going to be a winger. I just think Savoie is held higher because he played in North America and we hear more about him. -
It’s a pretty standard practice. I don’t know why we make such a big deal out of it. Only one or two players a year actually go to arbitration. In some years it’s none. And when I say “we” I mean the people on Twitter and Reddit having a meltdown that UPL filed
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Trade: C Ryan McLeod - Oilers for Matt Savoie
RochesterExpat replied to tom webster's topic in The Aud Club
This is my take as well. I guess my personal valuation of Savoie was substantially lower than the seemingly generally accepted value. Malenstyn was a big overpay. This one is a lot closer to even. How often do just-entering-prime bona fide 3C players who are under team control at a low AAV come on the market? Certainly not often enough to gauge a concrete trade value. -
OT: Things (mostly sports related) that you think are overrated
RochesterExpat replied to mjd1001's topic in The Aud Club
Paris is worth visiting once. It’s the rest of France that’s worth visiting again and again. -
OT: Things (mostly sports related) that you think are overrated
RochesterExpat replied to mjd1001's topic in The Aud Club
The WNBA. The product just isn’t good, I’m sorry. I understand people are hyped about new personalities, but it’s still terrible to watch. -
OT: Things (mostly sports related) that you think are overrated
RochesterExpat replied to mjd1001's topic in The Aud Club
We don’t even bother selling at farmer markets anymore. Booth prices are too high for low margin items. The math only works if you’re doing a value add (i.e. making hot sauce instead of selling peppers, etc). -
Can you explain to me where exactly during the last 13 seasons the Sabres have had "fair weather" under which you think these "fair weather fans" must have come from? I'm genuinely curious. Are we going to continue to sit and pretend the fans are the issue? How patient do fans need to be? Are fans not allowed to be upset at an organization that can't even accidentally stumble its way into the playoffs once during 13 seasons--a post-season with 50% league participation? This is the same organization that gives knockoff jerseys to alumni with misspelled names, players who refuse to salute the fans because the fans booed a coach who is fired a few months later anyway, and who have a self-imposed salary cap 13 years after the owner promised to spend to the cap to win a Stanley cup. How many years of, 'trust in the process' and 'next year is our year' do you have to endure before you realize you're just Sisyphus, destined to eternal 'the future is bright in Buffalo' optimism? It's not an accomplishment to win consecutive titles for "best prospect pool." There is no participation trophy. I'm a Pittsburgh Pirates fan. The Pirates didn't make the playoffs from the time of my third birthday until after I could legally buy a drink while I watched them lose. While Bob Nutting will easily give Pegula a run for his money as the worst franchise owner in professional sports, at least I've never felt like the Pirates organization, particularly the players, actively hate the fans. More importantly, I've never had a conversation with a Pirates fan where I said, "I'm tired of giving this Bob Nutting guy my money" met with accusations of fair weather fandom or the equivalent claim of not being a "true fan." The response is always, "I don't blame you. We suck." I can't say that's true for the Sabres. It's not just this forum. Reddit is the same way. People seem to take pride in their commitment to supporting an organization that doesn't return even the smallest amount of respect to them. Are you actually proud that you are a fan of a franchise that hasn't been relevant for over a decade? Do you want a medal for your bravery? Should we raise a banner for your sacrifice? Is this Stockholm Syndrome? Is this a coping mechanism for being the laughing stock of a league that espouses parity? If people are finally fed up enough to stop spending their money on the Sabres, can you really blame them?
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Well, I think it's actually a true statement that the team is "harder to play against" in the literal sense if we're only looking at the 4th line. That line is improved. The rest of the roster isn't. We lost Mitts who had the highest points pace on the team and we bought out the guy who finished third in scoring during a year the whole team regressed. We've done nothing to actually replace that lost production. To the core of your point though: we've lost the arms race in the east. It doesn't matter if Buffalo really is "harder to play against" when all the other teams are harder to play against as well. If you're in a race against someone else and you're behind them, you can't catch them by running at their pace. Even worse, at least relative to the Atlantic Division, Buffalo isn't even running at the pace of the teams ahead of them and they're going slower than teams behind them (Ottawa specifically). When we look at the whole conference, the Penguins and Devils are certainly more improved. I don't see Buffalo as being a playoff team without further moves made or the current roster having a statistically unlikely major outlier of a season in terms of production.
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Sabres Sign Jason Zucker to a One Year 5 Million AAV Deal
RochesterExpat replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
In a vacuum this move is a good move. Zucker is fine as a middle six guy and is probably going to love playing under Lindy. He's overpaid, but we signed him to a one year deal to lower the risk to the organization and that was going to come at a higher cost. It's not like we're utilizing cap space for anything else this year (apparently). So if treat Pegula Bucks as free money, this is fine. The problem is we aren't in a vacuum. There is an opportunity cost to overpaying players (even on a one year deal). More importantly, he's not a Jeff Skinner replacement in terms of production. He's just another piece to retooling the middle six of the lineup. We haven't replaced Skinner's production. We still haven't replaced Casey's production either for that matter. I actually like Zucker. He needs to stay healthy which is something he has struggled with, but he is the kind of player teams want in the playoffs. The problem in Buffalo is that he isn't enough to get us to the playoffs. The good news is we should get a decent return when we trade him at the deadline at 50% retained. -
I think he had a plan for the draft--and why he traded down--but it didn't materialize because he thought it was set in stone when it wasn't. I think the same was true for the Skinner buyout. I think they were in talks with someone to bring in through the free agency, GMKA thought it was going to happen, cleared the cap space, and then the player went elsewhere. Now I think he's lost. He looks and sounds tired. Look at his pre-draft presser, the "We want to be harder to play against" presser, and today's "we need to take that step this year" presser. His body language and enthusiasm are completely different from pre-draft through to today.
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I don't think they're prospects, but if we're talking about "drafting small players" they should be included even if they've graduated to the NHL.
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I have to be pedantic about this, sorry. They were first round draft picks. Not #1 draft picks. There is a huge difference. And I'm not sure how you're evaluating our drafting to conclude that our drafting hasn't been very good. Kulich was drafted 28th in 2022. He has played 119 AHL games and 1 NHL game. 21 players from this draft have played in the NHL, 8 of whom only played one game including the aforementioned Kulich as well as Savoie. The 2021 28th pick has played 102 games in the AHL and 2 games in the NHL. Isak Rosen has played more games in the NHL at 7. 38 members of this class have seen NHL action. Rosen is 29th. The 2020 28th pick played 46 games in the AHL and is at 92 games in the NHL (Ridly Greig). He played part of two seasons ago in the NHL and all of last season. This development track would be the same as Kulich if Kulich gets a 20 game look this season which is entirely possible with injuries. For what it's worth, six picks later is JJP who has 161 NHL games. Peterka is 9th in his draft class by games played in the NHL. Quinn, despite injury, is at 18th. The 2019 28th has 161 AHL games and no NHL games. For what it's worth, three picks later is Ryan Johnson who now has 41 NHL games. The 2018 28th has 34 AHL games and 144 NHL games. He played three seasons in Sweden after his draft and then came to the US where he played half a season in the AHL before getting promoted. Mattias Samuelsson was drafted 4 picks later and, despite his injuries, has played in six more NHL games. For this draft class, the #2 spot in games played is Dahlin--not that this surprises anyone. The 2017 28th overall has played in 9 NHL games and 217 AHL games. The 2016 28th overall has 257 AHL games and 9 NHL games under his belt. He is no longer under contract with an NHL club. Not that I would expect differently, but last years 28th overall pick is still in the OHL. Because that's expected for a 28th overall pick. Jumping straight into the AHL is very, very uncommon for a late first. Of the entire 2023 draft class, Zach Benson has played the most NHL games and he was drafted 13th. Only picks 1, 2, and 3 played meaningful numbers of games (and only two more played in one game). We did not have 90 picks in the last 5 years. We made 43 selections. 2024 - 8 picks 2023 - 8 picks 2022 - 11 picks 2021 - 11 picks 2020 - 5 picks You're also ignoring the realities that these players are not all the same "type" of player. Kulich is not remotely the same player as Krebs (who wasn't our draft pick) or Rosen. Östlund plays a completely different game from Savoie. Even that aside, are you seriously suggesting we the team has "no NHLers" at all from the most recent drafts? I guess Quinn and Peterka aren't NHLers. Or Cozens (drafted 5 years ago). Or Johnson or Power. And Benson leading his draft class in games played isn't enough to qualify as an NHL player. Also the idea that we haven't drafted any "forecheckers" is simply untrue. Helenius is a "forechecker" and we just picked him this season at 14th. #39 from last season, Anton Wahlberg, is the "forechecker" to a T. We had hopes for Kozak, but he's unlikely to make the NHL at this point. I'm not sure why you think draft picks instantly jump into the NHL after 2-3 years removed from the draft. That doesn't happen. This isn't the NFL.
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If it happens--emphasis on 'if'--I think you're right that it will be a cap-related trade. I see Adams pursuing a trade for an RFA on a cap crunch team or an RFA who is openly unhappy (e.g. Shane Pinto). Partly because Adams pursues younger players, but mostly because they're not going to have trade protections.
