Drag0nDan

I think they do the cap year to year. You can project a lot of it out with escalating TV contracts, but there's other pieces of revenue that is shared between all teams. There's also a certain revenue share - well say 50/50 to be easy. The cap is a reflection of that 50/50 revenue share, so 100M cap would in that scenario be 320M of shared league revenue with the players. You then factor in... NHLPA pensions, benefits, NHLPA employees etc. and that's all probably factored in as well on a year to year basis as per the current CBA.

This is like getting mad about gordon bombay for playing for the hawks when he was 10.

I'm liking seeing tuch and mcleod looking for tip ins more frequently. If team's are forcing you to shoot from the perimeter then make it harder to see, get some tips and rebounds. I feel like every line needs that, and every d-pair needs a shooter.

He's definitely still a young goalie in his age 23 season. 6 goalies have played in games this year in the NHL age 22 or under. 4 of those 6 have started 2 or fewer games. 2 of them (cossa and wallstedt) are former first round picks, and at least 2 of those players only appeared because the starter was pulled. 16 goalies 23 or under (age year for levi this year) have started games this year, 8 have started more than 10 games, and only 2 have started more than 20 games. One is a first round pick in Spencer Knight, and the other is Dustin Wolf. Wolf is actually smaller than Levi, and was also drafted in the 7th round (albeit in 2019 vs. 2020). Feels like a marathon, not a sprint - but I do think that after 150 games its pretty clear to me that UPL is not going to carry this team. If Levi doesn't need to clear waivers it makes him the easy candidate to spend time in the AHL again next year, but I think it'd be stupid to give UPL another 50 games. I don't think they're going to be able to get anyone particularly notable unless they want to try and make a run at demko, and if they do that i hope they send UPL back in the trade. And even then, Demko's only on a 1 year deal. Free agency is full of reimer types, and the trade market doesn't really have a ton of players on it that make sense to trade.

They've definitely been outshot in every one of those games considerably so the corsi makes sense. I'm not sure exactly how xGF% is calculated but i know being closer to the net tends to result in a higher xGF%, and i'd imagine more shots in general tilts that statistic.

I mean... you can't plan to use him for 50 games when he hasn't even started 40 total in his career. But it's also short-sighted to say he should be in the AHL. Just put the guys out there who give you the best chance to win. He's hovering around 100 professional games now between AHL and NHL, and while his NHL season this year was a failure he bounced back in the AHL. Not sure how that goes with other goalies in development, but it feels about right? UPL this season has played 1 month of hockey where his sv% was above .900, and in 15 games in february and march he has a save % of .850. I know we gave him a contract, and seeing guys like swayman struggle behind a bad team makes you know it isn't all on him. But man... he freaking sucks sometimes. He's all over the place and never looks comfortable. Still struggles with the shortside crap that drives me insane, especially at his size angles are so important and he's so not disciplined. Rebound control. He's lost out there with the PK. Like if anyone needs some time in the AHL to work on their game its probably UPL tbh. He's worse now than at the start of the year, like he's been spending time at the carter hutton academy of blind goaltending.

Miller had 8 in 04-05 FWIW, it just wasn't the outright league lead.

He was also the 4th center on the oilers behind mcdavid draisaitl and RNH. His linemates were likely some of the weaker wings on the team. I'm not sure how that factors into shooting percentage, shot selection, or just generally how many shots you generate in that scenario. Derek Ryan is by probably every analytic not generating a lot of scoring chances. Ditto for Janmark. Connor Brown. 2nd year Holloway (also what a great offer sheet that turned out to be for St. Louis). I don't know for sure who his common linemates were, but i'd assume some combination of all of these guys. So i always think shooting percentage raw is tough to evaluate - and how much of a drag on his numbers these might have been.

No one. Factoring in trade clauses, its less than no one. They are either a legit #1 and the team is in it, or they probably just re-upped. Oettinger, Hill, Saros, Vejmelka, Swayman, Blackwood, Thompson/Lindgren, and Daccord all extended. I can't see any of those teams wanting to swap contracts for UPL - even with solid sweeteners in there. I'm not sure there's anyone even available that's worth trading for. I think the entire list is just Demko, but he's on an expiring deal and has been battling injuries all season since the playoffs a year ago. I'm not saying he's washed, i just doubt he'd re-up here. They will need to get lucky in free agency, hope UPL plays considerably better, or Levi wins the crease by playing well.

Good question... He'll be 23 and he signed and played in 22-23. His entry-level 3 year deal is expired. He's played fewer than 60 NHL games, so i think he has one more year of waiver exemption. https://puckpedia.com/salary-cap/waivers Once a player 20+ Age plays 1 Professional Game, that is considered the first year (Levi was 21) The chart on there says he signed at 21, and has not exceeded 60 NHL starts, so by that measure he should be exempt for 4 years.

I just don't know why they kept riding UPL. Levi struggled out of the gate in a backup role, they got reimer back and sent levi down (i think he spot started somewhere during the losing streak). But as the season wore on and you were pretty much getting consistent AHL goaltending at the NHL level, they never felt like trying something different? Reimer or even Levi for that matter. Reimer finishes back to back games during the losing streak after UPL gets pulled. Obviously gets the 3rd start on the back to back with the starter essentially melting down. Reimer then starts 3 games in january and february - and puts up a greater than .900 sv% in all 4 appearances (UPL was pulled against carolina). UPL started 15 games - 9 of which his sv% was under .900%. The team went 9-6-1 during these starts but every time they lost they gave up 5 or more goals. UPL is 3-7 in december. His fall-off from November through the rest of the year is just... brutal (https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/luukkuk01/splits/2025). It's impossible to win with these numbers. Consistently inconsistent.

December was something else though, killed the entire season before 2025 even started.

They never say in hockey, but i feel like they wouldn't have said it wasn't a shoulder if it was. My guess is some type of core muscle type of thing that probably needs offseason surgery.

RE: Norris - supposedly not his shoulder but its an upper body injury they claim he picked up, but others claim he had when he was traded and was playing through. Its hockey so, we'll probably never know. I'd imagine since the season is completely lost that they're just being careful with an asset. They just traded for him and I'm not sure he's locked in on this team for 2025-2026. RE: UPL - Yes, Reimer is playing better than him and deserves majority of starts here on out. UPL Last 5

Seems pretty spot on to me. Better skating can get him into better positions to win some puck battles that drive possession as well, being late puts less pressure on the opponent. Felt like line with cozens was always bogged down turning it over behind the net, then having to hustle back on defense.

Probably the most frustrating aspect of this season. It was totally do-able, but Buffalo lost 14 straight games. You really can't make that up unless you win like 10 in a row.

He's the top RHD in the org at the moment on day one, which is pretty sad.

Oh of course, rosters are considerably longer. I just mean... the "lets see the young players because we are out of the playoffs" isn't really a fair solution.

Yeah... during the bills playoff drought people similarly want to see young guys play and i think a lot of what changed under McDermott was that you needed to earn your stripes. And if someone else is outplaying you, you lose playing time as a result. Where you were drafted does not matter once the pads go on.

I think not wanting draft compensation in trades is part of why the deadline was quieter than it probably should have been.

Why wouldn't buffalo just match any offer sheets? Or negotiate rights trades for players instead of future picks? Anything over 9.1M comes with a price - 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd and you have to have the 1/2/3 for 2026.

We also lost 14 straight games and he was in for... a lot of them. The team has certainly not helped him on goals this year, but he has been a hectic mess back there. Rebound control, Angles, puck tracking, etc. All of it is messy. It's his net to lose for next year, and he's currently in the process of losing it. Outside of one strong stretch, the guy has not performed well really at any level here including the AHL.

If you're going after Pettersson, i would have to think you'd move norris. They get a center who's cheaper (but still overpaid) and gets them out of that pettersson contract, and he gets a change of scenery. Buffalo would have to add in some stuff to make it work, maybe quinn or rosen. I'd have to think free agency plays out first, but i expect most of the centers stay pretty far from buffalo. Anyone of value in their 30s is probably chasing a cup, so they probably don't answer the phone when Buffalo calls.

They're definitely teetering in a tough spot, they're like the same team they were last year when they looked really good so its hard to want to change "too" much. But Lafreniere is getting a huge raise, as is shesterkin, even borgen is getting a raise - then you have Miller and Cuylle as RFA's and not a lot of cap room. Interested to see how they manuever this mess with NMC's on panarin, mika and JT miller.

I don't think Bernard-docker is going to light the world on fire by any means, but he's probably the best RHD in the organization now. By far the best RHD from an upside perspective, as cliftons at his ceiling and it's... not great. From a trade chip perspective you have: Byram - RFA - LHD when we have too many, top 5 pick pedigree, probably would score more with PP time. Power - already extended LHD, top overall pick, still working on his game. He'd probably net more than byram in a trade, but i don't see how you keep both with Dahlin running PP1. Tuch - 1 year remaining on his deal, and its very affordable. Would be a target of pretty much anyone in the league. Norris - Fairly large contract, but he's a center who can shoot. He was probably hurt when we got here, and they're either being careful because we suck and there's no point in re-injury, or they don't want him to be hurt during the offseason. JJP - RFA - Probably the biggest chip, steadily improving point totals and passes the eye test. Moving him would want to net a really good return. Quinn - RFA - Worst season of his career and also struggled to stay healthy at times. Skating and conditioning haven't been great, and he's just not a physical puck battler. If you move him you're likely getting little in return, or a bad contract for a decent player. Rosen - Winger whos approaching 200 games in the AHL, and will be 23 next season. Either move him, or move someone above and put him on the ice. Another year in the AHL and he's pretty much jost. Östlund - Still learning the NA game, former first rounder, not sure how much value he has, i'd put it at less than the pick he was used for though. I don't expect them to move all of these players. The team needs a 1C (especially if you want to continue using thompson on the wing), and players who can help keep the puck out of the net. They have a number of RFAs and 22M in cap space on the projected cap. If they extended byram, JJP, Quinn, levi, and bernard docker they would still likely have a good amount of space to play in free agency as well. I do think 2 of the players above move and byram seems like the likely candidate over power. I'm just not sure who the trade targets could be that improve the team today. The team really needs to hit on a big free agent.