GASabresIUFAN

Here is the break down Games 1-10 - 6-3-1 record - .889 save %. If you remove the two bad performances to start the year he had an .910 save % Games 11-20 - 7-2-1 record - .909 save%. UPL got off to a slow start last season as well. He was 1-2-1 in the first 4 games with a .846 save %. That was a pretty big hole stats wise, but then went 12-3-1 over the next 16 games with a .911 save %. Then as I posted earlier the wheels came mostly came off. In his next 12 start (he had one relief appearance), he went 4-5-2 with a lousy 874 save %. His worst start was getting pulled 12 minutes in a game after allowing 4 goals on 10 shots.

Who?

You are wrong. In his first 10 starts last year the Sabres went 6-3-1 and UPL gave up 3 or less in 6 of the games and was .897 or better in 6 of the games (he had 2 terrible games very early in the year) in the next 10 starts the Sabres went 7-2-1 and had 900 or better in 6 games and gave up 3 or less in 8 of the 10 games. His worst game in that stretch was an .875. He was also getting shelled most night as the Sabres gave up 35 to 45 shots in 5 of those games.

@Thorny Agreed. There are 60 games left in the season. Do we really trust UPL to give us quality starts in 40 of them? Do we trust anyone else with the other 20 or with the ability to step up and be the starter if UPL gets hurt or goes into the tank like he did last season after 20 games? If UPL manages to play at or near this elite level for the remainder of the season, it would be the most shocking development in the NHL this season given his substandard NHL and AHL track record. Frankly, our moribund franchise deserves a little luck.

So far. UPL gave us quality goaltending for much of his first 20 games last year and then the wheels came off over the next 13 starts.

This is a fair statement given how UPL has played of late. He has 4 straight starts (plus a replacement appearance) with a .923 save % or better. He had a similar run last year in starts 8-11 with no start under a .903 save % and another very good run in starts 15-20 with a record of 4-1-1 and only one start under 900 and that was only an 893. He was 13-5-2 in his 1st 20 starts last year with a 900 save % or better in 11 of those games. Then the wheels came off. In his next 13 starts, he had only 3 900 or better games and was 4-7-2.

Correct. That's why teams with competent management lock up their good goalies. What a crazy idea.

https://www.nhl.com/sabres/news/buffalo-sabres-loan-goaltender-devon-levi-rochester-americans See u in a few days when Comrie gets hurt again.

I'm not sure that's true. I think we have enough talent to play with anybody if we give the effort we saw last night.

The last 4 Sabres games encompass the Sabres' season to date. Blow a 2-0 and 3-2 lead against the Caps and lose in OT. Then get embarrassed and booed off the ice after 2 periods against Pitt, then come out like a house on fire, score 3 in the 3rd, and win the game 3-2. Coming off that high, they played their worst game of the year (and that is saying something) against the Devils losing 7-2 (and getting outshot 37 -12 with only 6 shots in the 1st 2 periods). Following that embarrassment, they dominated the leading team in the NHL and won 5-1. Will the real Sabres please stand up?

Yep. Looks like a different player. It still hate the 7-11 lineup.

Yes. This is not the same goaltender we have seen the last 3 years.

So we now we know they have a complete game in them. Of course it was on the road. Mitts now has 20 points and is the team’s leading scorer. Best defensive play of Skinner’s career. VO has another 2 point game. 4th 2pt game in his last 7 games. UPL was fantastic tonight. His paddle save was the best save of the year and probably secured the victory. Now can they sustain this effort for the next 3 games?

Marty complimenting UPL. That’s a change. 5-2 HDC for the Rags that period. UPL the difference. Skinner, Tuch and Mitts playing well. VO having a nice game. Ryan Johnson needs to take Clifton’s minutes.

Reid had similar issues McD is having when with the Eagles. https://www.profootballnetwork.com/why-did-the-philadelphia-eagles-fire-andy-reid/

I don't think Beane is the issue. His drafting (Elam aside) has been very good over the last 4 years. We have 2 starters already from 2023 (Kincaid and Torrence), 3 + from 2022 despite drafting Elam (Cook, Benard, Shakir, and Benford), 2 starters from 2021 (Rousseau and Brown), and 4 key contributors from 2020 (Epenesa, Davis, Bass and Dane Jackson. He also was very solid this past off-season and at the deadline adding Floyd, McGovern, Edwards, Rapp, and Douglas amongst others. Yes, Harty is a disappointment. You can rightly criticize some of the contracts (Knox and Miller for example). The only real complaint I have is not investing properly in WRs (David and Shakir are 4th and 5th rd picks) and not investing enough in the OL high in the draft. In fact, Kincaid was the first offensive player taken by Beane in the 1st rd since 2018. I also don't think MCD is getting fired, but a 8-9 or 7-10 season could easily change that thought, especially if the team quits on him.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2023/11/27/sean-mcdermott-josh-allen-bills-eagles/71715583007/ USAToday is ready to fire McD.

While that's great standard, the AFC has had much deeper competition over the last 3+ years. There are 5 teams in the AFC that have won 30+ games in the last 3 full seasons lead by KC (42) and Buffalo (37). In the NFC, only 3 teams have had 30+ lead by GB's 34. 3 AFC teams have had 3 straight winning seasons, while none of have accomplished it in the NFC.

My problem with most fancy stats is that they are so often team-dependent. Good teams have good fancy stats and bad teams don't. For example, take our friend Eichel. In Buffalo, his advanced numbers were lousy, just like the team. Put him on LV and his stats are now wonderful. What I find more intriguing when I look at hockey stats is finding positive and negative anomalies. For example, when Ullmark played here, the Sabres played at a playoff level and when any other goalie was in the net, the Sabres were awful. It illustrated how vital Ullmark was to the team. Too bad management didn't see it that way. Hockey is pretty simple. The more shots you get on the net, especially in HD areas, the more likely to win most nights. Have a goalie who can consistently stop 90% of the shots he faces and you'll win most nights. Help the goalie by having a defense that limits shots and limits shots from HD areas, the better your chances are. The Sabres are 29th in shots per game at 27.8. The Sabres are 17th in shots allowed at 30.4. Our differential of -2.6 is 25th in the NHL. (Stats from NHL.com) The Sabres are 19th in HDCF at 178 and 24th in HDCA at 199. Our HDCF% of 47.21% is 23rd in the NHL. (Stats from Natural stat trick) Goaltending stats - 5 on 5 Save % - Buffalo .904 (NHL average .918); overall save % - Buffalo .890 (NHL average .897) (Stats from Hockey-reference.com) I don't need too many advanced stats to show us that the Sabres don't shoot enough, do a mediocre job of getting shots off from high-danger areas, and do a lousy job of suppressing shots and high-danger shots. Now add that to the Sabres below-average goaltending and terrible PP, it's amazing this team is even close to 500. The anomalies are Mitts and JJP who are contributing at both ends of the ice. Ryan Johnson who has been a positive upgrade on defense. UPL vs Comrie and Levi. UPL has a .914 save % while Levi (.876) and Comrie (.877). This is just like Ullmark vs anyone else during his time here. On the bad are Krebs and Clifton (no fancy stats needed) A real GM would be working hard to fix these obvious issues. Levi would be sent down. Clifton would be in the pressbox. Ryan Johnson would be playing a regular shift. Krebs would be sent down as well. The GM would waive Comrie and find a veteran backup to play with UPL for the remainder of the season. The GM would also acquire a center to replace Krebs and Jost and at least one winger to upgrade KO and or Z.

How about with the players who failed to tackle or the GM who failed to build proper depth? Lots of blame to go around.

Let's say the Bills go for it in the bad conditions at the end of the 1st half and someone fumbles or Josh forces a throw and it gets intercepted and run back. What would everyone be saying then? The Bills were up 10 heading into the half. No reason to risk a F'up. Had it been 40 or 50 seconds I might agree with you, but just 20 in those conditions would have been a mistake.

So what end-of-game plays would you or any of your friends have called differently and with what assets on the Bills would you have accomplished that goal tonight? McD can't make the guys execute. Take Poyer's play near the end of regulation. He punched it out therefore stopping the clock for a 59 yard kick in the rain. What if he just tackles the guy right there in bounds and Philly has to rush the kick? Do they still make it? Regardless the Bills forced them to kick a near impossible field goal in the rain and they made it. That was great execution on the kicker, but it was bad luck for the Bills because they played it well. Did MCD make Bass miss two kicks? Was it McD's fault that Cook dropped a sure TD or that Davis didn't look back for the ball or the officials purposefully taking the Bills out of 2nd and goal at the 5 with impossibly terrible calls? I get people are frustrated with both teams right now. I'm more pissed at the Sabres than the Bills. I see a Bills team battling despite crippling injuries on defense and a terrible offensive scheme for much of the season. Brady has fixed the offense and the defense is what it is until people get healthy or next season.

The Bills are not moving on from Diggs. They have to much invested in him and the cap hit, unless restructured, is way to much. They also don't have anyone close to him on the roster as a replacement. Given the other critical needs facing this team, I also doubt they draft a WR in the 1st rd.

Like I said, I don't disagree but maybe Brady will help him become more aggressive if can get back to trusting Josh not to make stupid plays.

I'm not sure why people think EJ is a problem. He's only -2 and only has 6 giveaways in 21 games. Power has 17 (with only 5 takeaways). Dahlin has 15, Mule 11, Joki 10, and Clifton 9. EJ, who was often paired with Clifton, must be doing something right if his +/- is -2 compared to Clifton's -9. He is second on the teams with blocked shots (37) and is 6th on the team with 26 hits. He is also a stalwart on the PK. So far he is doing exactly what he was hired to do. Anyone who wants to start a thread on how disappointing Clifton has been, I'm right there with you, but EJ has passed the eye test regardless of what the often useless fancy stats say.