GASabresIUFAN

Z has 2 goals this season and zero assists in 20 games. That’s an 8 pt pace for a full season and half his normal production. That’s not even close to adequate production from any NHL forward even a 4th liner.

My email on Monday says my helmet will arrive Dec 11th.

Rosen, Biro, Kulich, and Rousek, do any of them make the Sabres materially better right now?

The only place that depth is really improved is on defense. Johnson & Johnson have been a serious upgrade on Bryson, Stillman, Lyubushkin, and Clague etc.. Clifton hasn’t been the positive we hoped, but there is a great deal of time left for him to turn it around. The goaltending is the same, but if UPL continues to play well, then there is hope for improvement there as well. If Levi can find his game in Rochester and return as a capable backup, then things will be substantially better. Last season the D depth was tested by injuries and was found wanting. This season is the reverse as the injury bug has hit the forwards, and the forward depth is failing the test. Things feel a little better because KO and VO have finally started to contribute on offense. VO has 8 points in his last 7 games (courtesy of 4 2 pt games) and KO has scored a goal in 3 straight. However Krebs still only has 1 pt for the season. Z has 2 goals this season and nothing in his last 13 games. Greenway, before he went on IR had 0 pts in his last 7 and Jost has 1 pt in his last 11 games. Cozens has 2 pts in his last 12 games. Tuch, Mitts, JJP and Skinner are carrying this forward group. Getting Thompson will help. However, if this team is going to work offensively Cozens is going to have to find his game. I’m still in the camp that one or two outside forwards are needed. Kids who can’t be trusted to play more than 6 minutes isn’t real depth.

He is listed as IR - NR (Non-Roster) according to capfriendly.

Translation: it wasn’t doing Devon any good sitting on the bench in Buffalo, but since I can’t admit I was wrong for dumping the weight of the franchise on a kid with 7 games of NHL experience, this is the solution I came up with.

Here is the break down Games 1-10 - 6-3-1 record - .889 save %. If you remove the two bad performances to start the year he had an .910 save % Games 11-20 - 7-2-1 record - .909 save%. UPL got off to a slow start last season as well. He was 1-2-1 in the first 4 games with a .846 save %. That was a pretty big hole stats wise, but then went 12-3-1 over the next 16 games with a .911 save %. Then as I posted earlier the wheels came mostly came off. In his next 12 start (he had one relief appearance), he went 4-5-2 with a lousy 874 save %. His worst start was getting pulled 12 minutes in a game after allowing 4 goals on 10 shots.

Who?

You are wrong. In his first 10 starts last year the Sabres went 6-3-1 and UPL gave up 3 or less in 6 of the games and was .897 or better in 6 of the games (he had 2 terrible games very early in the year) in the next 10 starts the Sabres went 7-2-1 and had 900 or better in 6 games and gave up 3 or less in 8 of the 10 games. His worst game in that stretch was an .875. He was also getting shelled most night as the Sabres gave up 35 to 45 shots in 5 of those games.

@Thorny Agreed. There are 60 games left in the season. Do we really trust UPL to give us quality starts in 40 of them? Do we trust anyone else with the other 20 or with the ability to step up and be the starter if UPL gets hurt or goes into the tank like he did last season after 20 games? If UPL manages to play at or near this elite level for the remainder of the season, it would be the most shocking development in the NHL this season given his substandard NHL and AHL track record. Frankly, our moribund franchise deserves a little luck.

So far. UPL gave us quality goaltending for much of his first 20 games last year and then the wheels came off over the next 13 starts.

This is a fair statement given how UPL has played of late. He has 4 straight starts (plus a replacement appearance) with a .923 save % or better. He had a similar run last year in starts 8-11 with no start under a .903 save % and another very good run in starts 15-20 with a record of 4-1-1 and only one start under 900 and that was only an 893. He was 13-5-2 in his 1st 20 starts last year with a 900 save % or better in 11 of those games. Then the wheels came off. In his next 13 starts, he had only 3 900 or better games and was 4-7-2.

Correct. That's why teams with competent management lock up their good goalies. What a crazy idea.

https://www.nhl.com/sabres/news/buffalo-sabres-loan-goaltender-devon-levi-rochester-americans See u in a few days when Comrie gets hurt again.

I'm not sure that's true. I think we have enough talent to play with anybody if we give the effort we saw last night.

The last 4 Sabres games encompass the Sabres' season to date. Blow a 2-0 and 3-2 lead against the Caps and lose in OT. Then get embarrassed and booed off the ice after 2 periods against Pitt, then come out like a house on fire, score 3 in the 3rd, and win the game 3-2. Coming off that high, they played their worst game of the year (and that is saying something) against the Devils losing 7-2 (and getting outshot 37 -12 with only 6 shots in the 1st 2 periods). Following that embarrassment, they dominated the leading team in the NHL and won 5-1. Will the real Sabres please stand up?

Yep. Looks like a different player. It still hate the 7-11 lineup.

Yes. This is not the same goaltender we have seen the last 3 years.

So we now we know they have a complete game in them. Of course it was on the road. Mitts now has 20 points and is the team’s leading scorer. Best defensive play of Skinner’s career. VO has another 2 point game. 4th 2pt game in his last 7 games. UPL was fantastic tonight. His paddle save was the best save of the year and probably secured the victory. Now can they sustain this effort for the next 3 games?

Marty complimenting UPL. That’s a change. 5-2 HDC for the Rags that period. UPL the difference. Skinner, Tuch and Mitts playing well. VO having a nice game. Ryan Johnson needs to take Clifton’s minutes.

Reid had similar issues McD is having when with the Eagles. https://www.profootballnetwork.com/why-did-the-philadelphia-eagles-fire-andy-reid/

I don't think Beane is the issue. His drafting (Elam aside) has been very good over the last 4 years. We have 2 starters already from 2023 (Kincaid and Torrence), 3 + from 2022 despite drafting Elam (Cook, Benard, Shakir, and Benford), 2 starters from 2021 (Rousseau and Brown), and 4 key contributors from 2020 (Epenesa, Davis, Bass and Dane Jackson. He also was very solid this past off-season and at the deadline adding Floyd, McGovern, Edwards, Rapp, and Douglas amongst others. Yes, Harty is a disappointment. You can rightly criticize some of the contracts (Knox and Miller for example). The only real complaint I have is not investing properly in WRs (David and Shakir are 4th and 5th rd picks) and not investing enough in the OL high in the draft. In fact, Kincaid was the first offensive player taken by Beane in the 1st rd since 2018. I also don't think MCD is getting fired, but a 8-9 or 7-10 season could easily change that thought, especially if the team quits on him.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2023/11/27/sean-mcdermott-josh-allen-bills-eagles/71715583007/ USAToday is ready to fire McD.

While that's great standard, the AFC has had much deeper competition over the last 3+ years. There are 5 teams in the AFC that have won 30+ games in the last 3 full seasons lead by KC (42) and Buffalo (37). In the NFC, only 3 teams have had 30+ lead by GB's 34. 3 AFC teams have had 3 straight winning seasons, while none of have accomplished it in the NFC.

My problem with most fancy stats is that they are so often team-dependent. Good teams have good fancy stats and bad teams don't. For example, take our friend Eichel. In Buffalo, his advanced numbers were lousy, just like the team. Put him on LV and his stats are now wonderful. What I find more intriguing when I look at hockey stats is finding positive and negative anomalies. For example, when Ullmark played here, the Sabres played at a playoff level and when any other goalie was in the net, the Sabres were awful. It illustrated how vital Ullmark was to the team. Too bad management didn't see it that way. Hockey is pretty simple. The more shots you get on the net, especially in HD areas, the more likely to win most nights. Have a goalie who can consistently stop 90% of the shots he faces and you'll win most nights. Help the goalie by having a defense that limits shots and limits shots from HD areas, the better your chances are. The Sabres are 29th in shots per game at 27.8. The Sabres are 17th in shots allowed at 30.4. Our differential of -2.6 is 25th in the NHL. (Stats from NHL.com) The Sabres are 19th in HDCF at 178 and 24th in HDCA at 199. Our HDCF% of 47.21% is 23rd in the NHL. (Stats from Natural stat trick) Goaltending stats - 5 on 5 Save % - Buffalo .904 (NHL average .918); overall save % - Buffalo .890 (NHL average .897) (Stats from Hockey-reference.com) I don't need too many advanced stats to show us that the Sabres don't shoot enough, do a mediocre job of getting shots off from high-danger areas, and do a lousy job of suppressing shots and high-danger shots. Now add that to the Sabres below-average goaltending and terrible PP, it's amazing this team is even close to 500. The anomalies are Mitts and JJP who are contributing at both ends of the ice. Ryan Johnson who has been a positive upgrade on defense. UPL vs Comrie and Levi. UPL has a .914 save % while Levi (.876) and Comrie (.877). This is just like Ullmark vs anyone else during his time here. On the bad are Krebs and Clifton (no fancy stats needed) A real GM would be working hard to fix these obvious issues. Levi would be sent down. Clifton would be in the pressbox. Ryan Johnson would be playing a regular shift. Krebs would be sent down as well. The GM would waive Comrie and find a veteran backup to play with UPL for the remainder of the season. The GM would also acquire a center to replace Krebs and Jost and at least one winger to upgrade KO and or Z.