GASabresIUFAN

Let’s say for arguments sake that Ana is actually interested in trading their top pick from a couple of years ago after a difficult injury affected season. Buffalo’s need for a player like Zegras is obvious. The Sabres need a top 6 forward and need a playmaker of his skill to replace the lost playmaking from trading Mitts. The biggest hurdle to a deal is Ana is only 1.28 million above the cap floor. Moving Zegras (and I assume his full salary of $5.75 million) without taking a contract or two back, would put Ana about $4.5 million under the cap. Ana is also a surprisingly old team. They have 5 forwards 30+, their top goalie is 31 and their top 3 D are also 32+. The Sabres also have 13 forwards under contract once Krebs is signed. If Ana trades Zegras, they are going to want at least one or two roster players, preferably someone who can become part of their core. My guess is Benson is at the top of their list. I also think they are going to want 4 pieces in total. If we use the Eichel deal as a reference, the Sabres gave up Eichel and a 2023 3rd for Tuch (a good, but injured vet with term), Krebs (a young highly touted near ready prospect), a 2022 1st and a 2023 2nd. Honestly, I’m having a problem making the pieces work. Greenway is likely to be one of pieces heading the other way. Krebs? Rosen? Kulich? Our first in 2025? Thoughts?

https://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/after-trade-to-move-up-sabres-possess-mature-prospect-in-brodie-ziemer/ Good read. This kid will be a Sabres someday and a good one.

They probably did, but it takes two to tango.

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/buffalo-sabres/latest-news/sabres-have-serious-interest-in-ducks-star This is the only "credible" place I've seen it, but there may be others. This is from late June.

A follow-up note on differential. Of the teams since 2005, 61% of the teams with a positive differential of +1 to +10 made the playoffs (30 of 49), and 83% of the teams with a positive differential of +11 to +20 made the playoffs (50/60). If the Sabres have at least +20 differential in 24/25 they will make the playoffs.

Actually he is the complete opposite of what they have in droves. He is a pass first playmaker. We have no one like him on the team. Tuch is the closest, but he is a more balanced mix of shooting and passing. JJP, TNT, Cozens, and Quinn are all shoot first players. Benson is an unknown, but seems to be more in the Tuch mold, just smaller and slower. As to Beck, it’s a fair deal given his one year in the NHL. If he can repeat with 20+ points, while hitting and playing PK, the deal will look good from a cap $ standpoint.

Here is a good stat Sabres fans. Only one team since the NHL returned from the lock-out in 2005 has missed the playoffs with a +20 differential (strike and Covid seasons exempted). That was the Avs in 06/07 with a +21 and they missed the playoffs by 1 pt (they still had 95 pts). Only 5 other teams missed the playoffs with a +15 or better differential. The Sabres of last season are tied with Minn of 05/06 with the lowest point total (84) for a team with a +differential. The Sabres also managed to miss the playoffs with a +13 in 07/08 and + 16 in 08/09.

Yes you are wrong. When the parties to a lawsuit or arbitration agree to a conclusion prior to a judge or arbiter reaching a decision it’s called a settlement.

This thread asks the fundamental question, what needs to happen for this team to make the playoffs. 1) There are internal questions Offense: A) EV offense. Two seasons ago our EV offense was the among the best in the NHL but it wasn’t enough to get the team into the playoffs. Last season, the EV offense fell off significantly and we fell further away from the playoffs. For this team to make the playoffs the EV offense must get better get back closer to the 22/23 offense. I’m relatively confident that the top 6 will show some rebound, but I’m not sure the bottom 6 will give us more. Still any rebound will get us closer to the playoffs. B) PP. In 22/23 the PP was extremely effective for half a season (23% for the season). After that and through 23/24, the PP was boring predictable and ineffective (16% in 23/24). Over the last 2 years, teams that execute at 22-23% or better nearly always make the playoffs. Buffalo in 22/23 is one the exceptions. Defense: A) EV Defense. In 22/23, despite one of the best offenses in the NHL, the team’s defense was horrendous. The teams’ defense was so bad, the team had a negative differential. HDCA was among the worst in the NHL. The 23/24 team was marginally better, but still one of the worst in NHL in HDCA. B) PK. Again it was terrible in 22/23. At 73% it was in the bottom 5 in the NHL. In 23/24 it was improved. It went from terrible to middle of the road at just under 80% dropping from 61 ga to 49 ga. Having at least a middle of the road PK would be nice. Goaltending: This is the real area of improvement for the Sabres last year which lead to the huge drop in GA both EV and PK. Sadly, it wasn’t great to start last season which dug a Sabres a hole they couldn’t get out of. However, UPL ending up having an excellent year and marginally kept the Sabres in playoff contention through February. However the entire goaltending still was just league average for the season. In 22/23 the Sabres save% was .890 (league ave .899). EV save% was .911 (league ave .920). In 23/24 the Sabres save% was .899 (league ave .898). EV save% was .920 (league ave .920). 2) External questions? Will any of last year’s playoff teams take a step back? Will any of last year’s bottom feeders, besides Buffalo, take a step forward? In the East over the last 2 seasons there hasn’t been much movement. In the East, 6 of 8 playoffs teams repeated from 21/22 to 22/23 and 7/8 repeated from 22/23 to 23/24. So what will it take for the Sabres to make the leap. The Offense, both at EV and PP, must get back to the above average performance. It doesn’t have to be top 5 in the NHL, but 265+ goals will go along way to securing a playoff spot, assuming everything else, such as the goaltending, EZ defense, and PK, remain league average or better. We are looking for a differential of at least 20+ to break the 13 year playoff drought. It would also be helpful if teams like the NYI, Car, TB and Wash take a step back.

So Benson is slow and small. Are those the reasons he slipped to 13th ? I noticed how little offense is generated by our new speedsters. Also surprised by how comparatively well Mule faired on these charts and how relatively poorly Joki faired.

Size matters. As much as we all like Benson, he does get knocked off the puck and that will continue. Also no one wants a team full of 5-9 to 5-11 guys. They wouldn’t fair very well. Still this is kind of an argument about interior vs perimeter play. So far, the Sabres have been a perimeter team with few guys, including big guys like TNT, willing to drove the net and even fewer forwards willing to embrace back checking. This is a question of heart. Benson has the heart to do what’s necessary. I question whether many of his teammates have the same commitment.

You could have said that about their best all-around forward. I’m not saying they shouldn’t re-sign UPL. All I’m saying is that they are in a much better position to weather the loss if UPL isn’t re-signed than they were when Ullmark walked. There are two other truths here as well. UPL isn’t going anywhere. He’ll either be re-signed through the arbitration process or an extension will be reached. Second, UPL has one good pro season to his name and even last season had extended periods of lousy play. He isn’t a proven NHL netminder. Let’s not act as if he is Ullmark 2.0. There is a very good chance that Levi outplays him next season.

At Ameris Bank Amphitheater seeing John Waite, Foreigner (or the cover band allowed to call themselves Foreigner) and Styx.

That's a better comparison.

Actually they can. When Ullmark left there wasn’t another remotely qualified goalie in the organization. That’s no longer the case. Levi is ready for a substantial role. Reimer has hundreds of games of NHL experience and was solid last year for Detroit in a backup role. Even Sandstrom has 30 games of NHL experience. I’m not saying losing UPL wouldn’t be a disappointment, but unlike when Ullmark left, Adams actually executed a plan B when he signed Reimer and Sandstrom.

My current Sabres prospects ranking. 1. Benson (LW) – 19 – 30 pts in 71 NHL games. 2nd Year in the NHL next fall 2. Levi (G) – 22 – .899 save % & 3.10 GAA in 23 NHL games. 2.42 & .927 in 26 AHL games. NHL in the fall. 3. Helenius (C) – 18 – 36 pts in 51 Liiga games. Will he come to NA in the fall? 4. Kulich (C/W) – 20 – 45 pts in 57 AHL games including 27 goals. 3rd season in Rochester upcoming 5. Östlund (C) – 22 – 23 pts in 38 SHL games. 1st full season in Rochester in the fall. 6. Rosen (RW) – 21 - 50 pts in 67 AHL games. 3rd season in Rochester upcoming 7. Novikov (LD) – 20 - 23 pts in 65 AHL games. 2nd season in Rochester upcoming 8. Wahlberg (C) – 19 – 10 pts in 43 SHL games plus 4 pts in 9 AHL games. 1st full AHL season in the fall. 9. Johnson (LD) – 22 - 7 pts in 41 NHL games, plus 9 in 27 AHL games. Can he earn a spot with the Sabres? Should he be higher on this list? 10. Komarov (RD) – 20 - 69 pts in 60 Q games plus 15 in 19 playoffs games. AHL rookie season upcoming. 11. Neuchev (LW) – 20 – 28 pts in 57 AHL games. 2nd season in Rochester upcoming. 12. Strbak (RD) – 19 – 9 pts in 32 NCAA games. Remains at MSU. 13. Ziemer (RW) – 18 –94 pts in 88 games for the USNTDP – 12 pts in 7 WJ U-18 games – Captain. Starts U of Minn in the fall. 14. Kleber (RD) – 18 – 26 pts in 56 USHL games. Starts Minn-Duluth in the fall. 15. Poltapov (LW) – 21 – 13 pts in 56 KHL games. One more KHL season before coming over? 16. Kisakov (LW) – 21 – 13 pts in 32 AHL games. 3rd season in Rochester upcoming 17. Tullio (RW)- 22 – 21 pts in 54 AHL games. 3rd AHL season upcoming, but new to the Amerks 18. McCarthy (RD) - 19 - 5 pts in 38 NCAA games. Remains at BU 19. Richard (F) – 19 – 18 pts in 36 NCAA games. Remains at UConn 20. Osburn (LD) – 17 – 23 pts in 60 USHL games. Starts Wisconsin in the fall. 21. Leenders (G) – 18 - .909 save % & 3.12 GAA in 46 OHL games with a 24-17-4 record. Made Canada U-18 team 22. Ratzlaff (G) – 19 - .905 save % & 3.33 GAA in 52 WHL games with a 21-26-2 record. 23. Sardarian (RW) – 21 – 14 pts in 32 NCAA games. Entered the transfer portal. 24. Leinonen (G) - 21 - .844 save % & 4.14 GAA in 6 Liiga games. Moving to Sweden next season. 25. Costantini (C ) - 22(aug) – 31 pts in 38 NCAA games. Currently at W. Michigan.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5612279/2024/07/16/nhl-prospects-ranking-celebrini-michkov/ Wheeler's Top 100 drafted NHL prospects (SJS, CBJ & Mon have 6 each. 8 teams have 5 prospects listed. The Sabres have 4). 20. Zack Benson "Benson’s a driver in every sense. He’s a multi-dimensional forward who has quick acceleration (I never understood how some called his skating average), can handle the puck at speed and change tempos in control, can shape play by opening up his hips to go heel to heel, thrives in traffic, is a triple shot-deke-pass threat, plays one step ahead of the game in possession, supports the play effectively, problem-solves incredibly well, works hard off the puck to keep his energy up (he plays heavier and scrappier than he looks, too), and sets the pace (whether by picking it up or slowing it down to use his creativity) and effort level for his line." 22. Konsta Helenius "Helenius is a joy to watch navigate, manipulate and pass the puck with his smarts and intuition. He's got an ability to find his teammates in space and then get pucks to them with the perfect weight and timing, even while he’s well covered. He also stirs the drink through his effort level, regularly coming up with pucks when you don’t expect him to while quietly and efficiently impacting play at both ends of the rink and coming up with a ton of steals and lifts. He’s both a driver and a playmaker. He does such a good job identifying lanes and taking what the defense gives him. He’ll look for his own look when it’s there or play in a quick give-and-go when spacing tightens up. He seems to create constantly. He’s a good though not great skater. " 40. Jiri Kulich "Kulich is a sturdy, hard-shooting player who can morph his game to his role. He can function as the off-puck guy who makes quick plays/decisions with the puck and can play off of talented linemates to free his extremely dangerous shooting arsenal up. He can carry the puck and function as the primary handler on a line. I like his positioning and timing off the puck. I like the strength, balance and control of his skating stride. I like how quickly and hard shots come off of his stick (not just with his world-class one-timer but through a deceptive early release point in stride, too). I’ve seen him come up big in big moments." 42. Matt Savoie 78. Noah Östlund "Östlund’s calling card is his airy, agile skating stride, excellent hands, cleverness and committed two-way game. The skating and defensive aptitude (including on faceoffs) make him an able penalty killer and the rest give him clear tools of creation at five-on-five and on the power play. He wins a ton of short races, creates quickly as soon as he’s in possession, and darts around the ice in control to get into scoring areas or facilitate from the perimeter. His lack of size and strength (he’s a lean 5-foot-11 and 160-something pounds) are likely going to be impediments as he tries to progress into the NHL, but I thought they’d make his jump to the SHL last year a little more challenging than it was and he basically looked exactly like himself. "

Who knew that goaltending matters? Certainly not Kevyn Adams.

Quinn is the story of the Sabres the last few years. Key injuries have derailed promising seasons. 2 years ago it was injuries on defense. If I remember correctly we were down to 3 regulars early in the season. Last year it was the forwards. Quinn was the first to go down, but many others missed time. We simply don’t have the depth and experience to overcome. Quinn has the potential to be a pt a game player in the NHL. Perhaps a better version of Alex Tuch if he can stay healthy. His pace last season was 27g 30a. A healthy Quinn goes 32g 40a next season.

GM’s do tend to fire coaches instead of looking inward and admitting bad roster and depth decisions.

Using the 7 recent players I mentioned in the OP, there is good reason to believe that he might not produce more points in year 2. Kotkaniemi and Sillinger regressed in year 2. Kakko and Pastrnak were flat in year 2. Barkov increase slightly from 24/54 (.44 pt/gm) to 36/71 (.5 pt/gm). Only Hughes (50% increase) and Stutzle (100% increase) jumped significantly. Obviously 7 comparables is a relatively small sample size, but it’s still illustrative of the 4 possible outcomes (Regression, flat, modest increase, large increase). I believe Benson falls into category 3 - modest increase. I’m placing Zack here to start because of a suspected 3rd line role to start the season. My current prediction is 15g 25a for 40 pts or a 33% increase.

I had 17 ranking on my board, only Button and Pronman had Benson outside the top 10. His average ranking was 7.65 which was the 6th best average, but only 4 of the 17 had Benson in the top5. 8 of the 17 had him in the top 6

He's not. He has crossed the 160 game threshold to be waiver exempt. Therefore he can't be sent down other than a conditioning assignment. I typically use a broad definition for prospects. I use 24 and under age wise and still waivers exempt. Mitts and TNT being sent down after 100+ NHL games taught me that some guys take a little longer to find their NHL sea legs. I find using an artificial number like 100 NHL games or one full NHL season to be to restrictive and does not take into account the real development curve for some players. I also find using an age like 22 or 23 also to be to restrictive, especially with goalies. UPL finally established himself in the NHL at age 24. To me Levi (22) with 30 NHL games and Benson (19) with 71 NHL games are still prospects.

There are going to be some interesting camp questions, such as how high or low does Zucker play in the lineup. Your Rufferized lineup brings back the question of how does Ruff like to create lines. My impression was always a playmaker coupled with a grinder and a goal scorer/sniper. For that reason, and noted that KA mentioned playing Krebs on the wing, I can see Krebs as the 4th line playmaker based upon the current roster. Not sure the current roster is ideal for that type of line creation with Benson and Tuch probably our best playmakers on the current roster. Go and get Zegras and our playmaking jumps significantly.

https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/team-resets/buffalo-sabres-roster-changes-for-2024-25-season NHL.Com's review of the Sabres off-season so far.