GASabresIUFAN

Easy come easy go!

https://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/40520257/nhl-grades-2024-free-agency-draft-trades-report-cards-offseason#buf "Buffalo Sabres Key players added: F Sam Lafferty, F Beck Malenstyn, F Jason Zucker, G James Reimer Key players lost: F Zemgus Girgensons, F Victor Olofsson, F Jeff Skinner Remaining cap space: $14.55 million Coach status: Lindy Ruff is back behind the bench in Buffalo to replace the fired Don Granato. It's Ruff's second go-around with the Sabres after he coached there from 1997-2013, taking Buffalo to the playoffs nine times in that 14-year stretch. Given the Sabres remain in the longest postseason drought in pro sports since he left, it might not be a coincidence GM Kevyn Adams brought him back into the fold. Buffalo is desperate to be a playoff contender again, and Ruff could have the secret recipe to get them back in the mix. Overall grade: C. Buffalo hasn't done anything to make its top-six better. In fact, the Sabres arguably got worse by buying out Skinner. Even if Skinner had a down year production-wise and questionable defensive habits, he was a superior option to the the other additions Adams has made to help bolster the Sabres up front. Zucker and Lafferty are fine depth signings, no doubt. Malenstyn should contribute in the bottom six. But Adams offered up a second-round pick to Washington for him, after Malenstyn's (career-high) 21-point 2023-24? It's difficult to gauge if Buffalo is truly improved now, or just counting on its well-paid core to be more of what they showed in 2022-23 than in 2023-24. Ruff obviously had a say in how the Sabres have conducted themselves too. Perhaps the Sabres aren't done tinkering this summer." This was written before UPL was re-signed.

Who knows, I'm just glad I beat @Brawndo posting it.

Zadina, 24, was drafted 6th overall in 2018 by Det. Had 13g 10a in 72 games with a -44 for SJ last season. KA does love to shop in the clearance bin at Walmart.

You forgot McLeod’s career high 12 goals last season. I’ve mentioned the gap between the top 2 lines and the bottom 2 lines on numerous occasions. It’s one of the primary reasons I have been harping on getting another top 6 so we can force down some of the current top 6 fire power to strengthen the 3rd line. It’s also one of the reasons I’ve been so critical of KA’s plan. How much more depth offense would the Sabres have with Skinner and Mitts vs McLeod and Zucker. There is still time and money to salvage the problem. I don’t know if the answer is Zegras, Farabee or (insert name here), but finding some additional offense somewhere would help.

The best thing about the Krebs situation is that it highlights that no young vet or prospect is guaranteed a roster spot anymore. Krebs, Levi, Johnson, Kulich and Rosen will have to fight a more experienced vet for a job with the Sabres this fall. Call it prospect blocking if you will, but this is a long overdue development. Jobs must be earned going forward. As outlined above Krebs is competing with everyone in the bottom six for a job. His best “hope” for this coming season is that someone gets hurt and he runs with the opportunity. If he doesn’t, Kulich or Rosen could surpass him on the depth chart. I actually expect Kulich to take off this season and force his way onto the Sabres by mid-season. Levi is in competition with UPL and Reimer. Camp should be interesting. By re-sign Joki, Bryson and signing Gilbert, the Sabres put a pile a players between Johnson and the NHL. Personally, I think Johnson has the potential to be better than any of them, but he of going to have an uphill battle to prove it.

and then there is Curtis Lazar. Drafted 17th overall in 2013 by Ott after a stellar WHL career (sound familiar). Had 20 pts at 19 in the NHL and then worked his way to the minors and has been bouncing around the NHL ever since with stops Calg, Buffalo, Boston, Van and NJ. Tyson Jost. Drafted 10th overall by Colorado in 2016. He peaked with 26 pts at 20 with the Avs and since then has worked his way to 13th work for Minn, Buffalo and now with the Canes. Lias Andersson. Drafted 7th by the Rags in 2017. He has never been able to keep an NHL job and spent the last two years in the AHL. Krebs is very close to turning into Lazar or Jost.

Who is Krebs going to beat out for a starting job? At center he isn’t beating out McLeod or Lafferty who were two of KA’s key acquisitions this summer. At wing he isn’t beating Greenway and Zucker on the 3rd line two other big key KA acquisition. That leaves Krebs to battle it out with two other new acquisitions in Malenstyn and Aube-Kubel. Krebs is solid defensively, but was one of worst offensive forwards in the NHL last season. He also isn’t as fast or physical as Aube-Kubel or Malenstyn. I give his chances of beating either of them out in camp at about zero!

Here are the 8 guys who played mostly 3rd and 4th line minutes for the Sabres last season - Krebs, Girgensons, Greenway, Jost, Olofsson, Robinson, Okposo & Benson. They scored 55 goals last season. These are the expected 7 guys who will populate the 3rd and 4th lines for the Sabres this coming season - Krebs, Greenway, Zucker, McLeod, Aube-Kubel, Malenstyn and Lafferty - They scored 57 goals last season. Not exactly a huge increase in offense.

All drafts don’t have the same talent level or depth of talent. Helenius and Rosen were both drafted 14th but Helenius is the more talented player. Helenius’ upside is that of a 2nd line center. He is the guy who will push Cozens to the wing where he belongs. Many scouts have said Helenius maybe NHL ready now. Kulich and Rosen are also close to NHL but neither has Helenius’ upside although Kulich is close, but two years older Östlund, IMHO has 2/3 line potential, is discounted to Helenius because he’s older but wasn’t as affective in his Euro senior league as Helenius last season. He was .6 pts per game in the SHL while Helenius, at only 18, was .7 pts per game in the Liiga and dominated in the playoffs. A near Barkov level performance.

While I agree it’s possible to get 270 out if the current roster, it’s not likely. We need another top 6 forward. If the goal is to play fast, you bring in a top 6 forward to replace Skinner’s lost offense, push Benson to the 3rd line and trade Greenway (our slowest player).

I am also worried that some may slip, but considering how low in production that new bottom six was last year, i’m not looking for to much regression there or from JJP after his breakout year.. I also believe most of top guys lost production partially from the stagnant PP. Any uptick in the PP should help list most of the boats in the top 6 forwards. I have looked at how we get to 265-270 a few times this offseason. I wrote this yesterday in the big picture thread. I also posted a similar analysis to yours in another @dudacek thread earlier this offseason. Ultimately, the road map to 265-270 is going fall on rebounds from Tage and Cozens, a healthy and productive Quinn and continued improvement from Benson. The key to a Tage rebound is the PP. His PP goals feel from 20 to 9 last season. As to the rest of the roster, I think we could see increase from Byram (who needs to play a full season) and Tuch, but also decreases from Zucker and McLeod who won’t be playing with Draistal this season. I’m not expecting anymore than 60 to 65 goals from our bottom 7 forwards.

What site did you use? Hockey-reference has Lafferty at 10.3%, Tuch at 11.4, Zucker at 12.2 etc..

Byram. 0.116. 75. 8.70 @LGR4GM These numbers seem low. Hockey-reference has his career shooting % at 11.9% He has also taken 219 shots on net for his career in 164 games. That’s about 110 shots per season. That actually projects to 13 goals next season. Considering he has 10 in 42 games 2 years ago and 11 in 53 games last season. We should expect a higher total than you projected over a full season.

There is allegedly a photo from his recent wedding where he is lifting his wife. If true, I can see why the Flyers may feel that the injury can’t be that bad if he can lift his wife off the ground.

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/40929830/flyers-waive-ryan-johansen-claim-breach-contract https://www.tricitynews.com/local-news/this-port-moody-nhler-just-got-married-now-he-could-be-out-of-a-job-9374802 Johansen and his agent claim he has a major hip injury that requires surgery. He has been out with that injury since acquired by the Flyers last season.

Here is an optimistic post about the possible upside for the offense. I wrote in my earlier post that the Sabres would need to score about 265-270 goals to reasonably expect to make the playoffs. When we scored 300+ a few years ago we had a poor defense and terrible goaltending. The defense is marginally better, but the goaltending should be a strength, so I’m going to assume we keep our GA to 250 or less. The projected 21 skater lineup scored 227 goals last season. The forwards scored 180 and our defenders chipped in another 47. So where should we look for another 40 goals? 1) Quinn - Quinn scored 9 goals in 27 games last season - If he stays healthy I think 27 goals is a fair but possibly low estimate (+18) 2) Benson - Assuming he plays on the 2nd line, his production should jump in year 2 from 11g 19a to reasonably 18g 25a. (+7). To show what’s possible, JJP went from 12g 20a in year 1 to 28g 22a in year 2. I don’t think Benson is a JJP level goal scorer, but he is probably a much better playmaker. 3) TNT - Tage has averaged 38 goals the last 3 seasons, last year he scored 29, but came on after being hurt early. I don’t expect him to shoot 15%+ like he did in 21/22 or 22/23, but a rebound to closer to that number seems reasonable, thus about 35 goals as a projection. (+6) 4) Cozens - He isn’t as good as his career year (31 goals), but he isn’t as bad as last season (18 goals) split the difference for 25 goals (+7) That’s 38 additional goals from 4 players. Any improvement from Tuch or JJP would add to that projection. I don’t expect much if any increase in production from the 3rd (34 goals - Zucker, McLeod, Greenway) or 4th (29 goals - Kubel, Krebs, Lafferty, Malenstyn) lines or really from the defense. I can see Dahlin slipping a little from 20, but possible increases from Power (6) and Byram (11) to offset any decrease from Dahlin. The rest of the defense is a goal scoring void. The biggest issue is health. Keeping the majority of our top 6 forward and top 3 D healthy this season will go along way toward getting to the playoffs. The drop off in talent from our top 6 forwards and top 3 defenders is huge.

No. They don’t have the talent to play with our top players. Especially when you consider that better players, Quinn and JJP, only scored 30+ points total as rookies.

My feelings about Adams are the same as always; he never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity. For the 3rd offseason in a row he had an opportunity to make a couple significant upgrades to his roster to get the team over the hump. Instead he continue to play on the margins. When we needed legit goaltending he failed to keep Ullmark, failed to acquire a legit starter but instead gave us fringe players like Anderson, Subban, Tokarski, and Comrie. We have needed partners for Dahlin and Power for years as well as defensively strong D. Instead he gave us Lyubushkin, Johnson, Clague, Gilbert, Stillman and Clifton. None of which were suitable partners for our top guys and none were better than 3rd pairing players and most were just roster filler. This offseason is more of the same. He has still failed to acquire any good defensive D who can play in our top 4. Instead he acquired a 3rd high skill offensive D, whose early returns show him as an ill fit with Dahlin or Power and suspect defensively. He also downgraded the skill level of the forward group. He shipped out Skinner and Mitts sending away 40-50 goals and 100-120 points. They were replaced with McLeod and Zucker who scored about 25 goals and 60 points last season. His arguably positive change was to remake the 4th line to a faster more physical group, unfortunately with only a marginal upgrade in scoring. This offseason so far, IMHO, will be remembered, unless the team makes the playoffs, for KAs continued inability to attract good talent to Buffalo. The same excuses for failure echoed all offseason. The price was too high, the player wouldn’t wave his NTC, the player wouldn’t sign an extension etc…. All that said there is a chance this team can make the playoffs. Despite being in the bottom 5 again HDCA, UPL’s good season helped the Sabres give up around 240 goals against. If he and his backup (Levi or Reimer) can repeat that performance then the team has a chance. However, they will need to stay healthy, and get rebounds in performance from Tuch, Tage and Cozens plus further development from Benson, JJP and Quinn. They also need to get the PP going. Ultimately they will need to score 265-270 goals. Not impossible, but everything will have to go right.

But it’s clearly not Adams calling Avs and asking what they want for Byram.

This seems to imply that the Avs knew Mitts was on the market and inquired at what it would cost to acquire him.

This is not how it happened. It’s pretty clear KA never intended to re-sign Mitts. Once the Sabres were reasonably out of the playoff chance he put Mitts on the trade market and took what he believed was the best offer. Whether he turned down offers for forwards, defensive D, goalies, or picks/prospects we’ll never know, but I find it hard to believe his priority was to acquire a 3rd high offense defenseman. It seems much more likely he was looking for a talented young player under contract/control and he didn’t care if the player was a winger, center, defensive D or offensive D. Colorado made the best offer of a former 4th overall pick who was under contract for this season and then an arbitration eligible RFA (which is control for another year to 2 years depending on the arbitration result - if not extended first). KA would have been happy with a center as well. After all he traded a former 9th overall center prospect (Savoie) for a 24 year old 3rd line center with one year left on his contract and then, like Byram, is an arbitration eligible RFA. This move was about saving money, not about making the Sabres better.

Byram - Pts/Game played 21/22 .57 22/23 .48 23/24 .40 Quinn - pts/game player 22/23 .31 23/24 .70 - This is what has people so excited. The team's biggest need was a top 4 D who played good defense and had a complimentary skill set at Dahlin and Power. This is not Byram. I'm also a little bearish on Bryam as his defense and production have decreased each season in the NHL. He is still young enough to rebound, but the trend is not going to in the right direction.

Give up Thorny. He doesn't understand. He's ok with the status quo. We have been on the giving end of the "big trade" so many times in recent years that we have forgotten what one really looks like coming the other way. Trading away ROR, Eichel, Kane and Reinhart are examples of what we have been clamoring for KA to finally do in reverse. Go get an establish good to excellent veteran in his prime for picks and prospects. Other GM gets these deals done all the time, why can't Adams? Mitts for Byram isn't the "big trade" because the "big trade" is supposed to improve your NHL roster without depleting other areas of your NHL roster. Trading your best playmaker for a 3rd offensive defenseman doesn't qualify as the big trade because it depleted the forward group with no adequate replacement on the roster or in the system. It also didn't fill an area of need on the defense since this new offensive D isn't good defensively and the Sabres have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL for the last few years.

How do you judge a coaching change until you see how the team plays under the new coach?