GASabresIUFAN

Well here is the first Preview of the upcoming season. Sorry it's from the Athletic and it predicts we'll be the 4th worst team in the NHL. Don't worry the pitchforks are already out. Dom Luszczyzsyn believes that Sabres will finish with 76 pts next season and actually be worse than the Flyers, Sens and Red Wings among 28 others. Only Chicago, Mon and AZ project lower. He doesn't even list JJP as a possible Sabres next season. He is even using player data which includes data points from the RK era to make his projections. Obviously is much easier to predict the performance using analytic tools with veteran players coached by veteran coaches, and he is correct in that the Sabres have so many young players that you don't know how they will grow and develop. Still one needs a little common sense when the data doesn't match the eye test. This team turned the corner last year. If this team fails to score 250+ and move into the mid 80's pt wise, I'll be very disappointed and so will management and the players. This is his one saving grace: HIs best case scenario IMHO has about a 75% chance of occurring. His worst case 5%. https://theathletic.com/3606971/2022/09/20/buffalo-sabres-2022-23-season-preview/ Anyway, If you find other previews please post them here so that we can bash them as well.

I’m also surprised that Kozak is making the jump. Not many 7th rounders jump to the A in their D2 year.

"I would think I'm coaching him soon," Appert finished. Appert talking about Kozak after the 3rd prospects game.

Well, that looked like Georgia against Oregon. Still how in h-e-l-l does a team like this fail to convert on 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1 6 times. I don't get it. Don't go in the shot gun. Lineup with 2 TE's and either run Josh up the middle, run Moss behind Gilliam, or let Josh bootleg it. Enough. It's just not that hard. Do we have any confidence in Casey Keenum?

Pronman said his skating was an issue. Oops!

How are the Amerks fans feeling about the forward group after watching the prospect challenge? Kozak, Kisakov, Rousek, Rosen, Kulich and Cederqvist all have had some really nice moments. Add them to Mersch, Murray, Biro, Weissbach, Malone and possibly Bjork and Sheahan and you have a really nice blend of new players, veterans and mid level prospects.

That was one chippy game.

All “prospect” lists are all different based on the restrictions they use to define a prospect. All use an age limit of some kind. Many use 22 or 23 and under saying that guys older than that aren’t really “developing” any longer. Others also an NHL games qualifier to kick guys off the list saying if you have played “x” number of games you have either proven your an NHLer or your not. I think what we have seen with Tage Thompson, that both of those qualifiers maybe overly restrictive. I use an expansive definition of 24 and under and the player must be waiver exempt. Tage and Mitts being sent down after 100+ NHL games and growing from the experience taught me to use a broader approach. This broader approach is why Krebs and Samuelsson are still on my list and not on the list sited above. It also varies by what criterion the writer utilizes to rank the player. Are they using upside only, or are they using years to the NHL as a factor or in what round the player was drafted. Do they look at a players skill set to see if it will translate to the NHL or not. How this plays out really affects how a writer would view certain players. For example lets look at forwards Rosen, Poltapov, Kisakov, Bloom, Nadeau and Kozak all taken in the 2021 draft. If you rank them by where they were drafted, then you’d rank them in the order I listed them. On the draft day that might work because that pick is a representation of the organization view of their talent, but at D+1, are those perceptions still valid? Take CHLers Nadeau, Bloom and Kozak. 3rd rd pick Bloom had 30g 31a for 61 pts in 67 games in the OHL 4th rd pick Nadeau had 35g 43a for 78 pts in 65 games in the Q 7th rd pick Kozak had 32g 37a for 69 pts in 62 games in the WHL Looking at these numbers alone who would rank higher? Now add in the Bloom was off for a year and played on a bad team, Nadeau isn’t the best skater and Kozak is the only one AHL eligible even though he is only a few weeks older than Bloom and Nadeau. What about the praise Kozak received from Amerks Ast Mike Peca? Does that additional information help or hurt their rankings? Now how does their performance stack up against the 3 Euros drafted ahead of them? When I did my list post draft, I discounted Poltapov because it could be another 2-3 years before he comes to NA, but left Kisakov ahead of the 3 CHL players because he is already in NA and likely to suit up for the Amerks in the fall. IMHO, when a player is going to impact the Sabres can be a deciding factor on where they are ranked.

We got a good glimpse last night why Peca and Appert are so high on Kozak. I get the feeling from them that he is likely Rochester bound for next season.

Just compared the Prospects roster to the Development camp roster and outside of our drafted and signed kids, there are 4 returnees. At forward McDonald, Olischefski and Passolt return. (Both Olischeski and Passolt played for our affiliates last year after their college seasons ended). On Defense Buteau returns. I remember McDonald and Buteau standing out during the development camp.

Amen brother. The Sabres moving up in the standings is all that really matters. FYI, NHL.com has Tage 131 on their fantasy list. Nurse is in no way better than Dahlin.

Many of these guys have longer track records of success like Teravainen. Others, like Verhaege, have shown consistent develop. Tage not being rated is more likely a reaction to the surprise nature of his season. If (when?) he does it again this year, that doubt will dissipate.

How many Sabres would you expect? On average your talking about 3 players per NHL team. Good teams with more and "rebuilding" teams with less. Objectively you are probably looking at a list of 63-65 forwards, 30-32 D and 5 or 6 Goalies before even starting to dive into the analytics and stats. So is Dahlin one of the top 30 D in the NHL? I'd agree with that, but probably in the 21-30 range. Obviously we don't have one of the top 5 or 6 goalies. At forward Thompson finished 49th last year in forward scoring. Skinner was 65th. Thompson finished 19th in forward goal scoring and Skinner was tied for 33rd. I think there is a plausible argument that Tage and even Skinner are arguably in the top 65 forwards in the NHL based on last year's performance. However, I can also understand leaving Skinner and Tage out given their performance in recent prior seasons. I do think if Tage has another great year, he'll easily make next years list. Not that any list really matters.

What were the lines at the end of last season? I think they were something like this. Skinner Tnt Tuch Krebs Cozens VO Asplund Mitts KO Vinnie Girgensons Bjork but also we saw late last year some VO Mitts Cozens One other note, I think the only "pair" that is probably written in ink is TNT with Tuch. 28 of Tage's 38 goals came once Alex was put on his line. Threading the nettle on line pairs with this many talented yet mostly unproven forwards, is going to be nearly impossible coming out of camp. It may 20 or so games to actually bare fruit. Finding the right usage for Krebs, Quinn and JJP is going to be a real challenge.

Someone mentioned up thread that this will be a very competitive camp. Maybe for who plays with who, but not who actually makes the roster. Baring injuries, 21 players on the roster are already pretty much set in stone. Goalie: Comrie, Anderson Defense: Dahlin, Power, Bryson, Jokiharju, Samuelsson and Lyubushkin Forwards: Skinner, TNT, Tuch, VO, Mitts, Cozens, Krebs, Asplund, Girgensons, KO, Quinn, JJP and Vinnie. That doesn’t really leave much room for someone to take a roster spot. There will be a roster spot for at least one D. I assume Pilut, Clague and Fitz will be competing for the 7th D slot. The only real roster question is will the Sabres carry 14 forwards or 8 D or stay at 22 players. Personally, I’m betting on 14 forwards. If we carry 14 forwards Sheahan or Bjork could earn a spot. If they carry 8 D then 2 of Pilut, Clague or Fitz will make the squad.

I had him at 18g 13a last year. I’m thrilled to have been so low on my projection. I’m hoping I’m low again this season with a 27g 25a season.

VO gets traded at the deadline for 2 2nds and a medium prospect. KA use these assets to acquire a goaltender and a defenseman to help a team fighting for a playoff spot. This trade happens because Quinn and JJP’s play demands more ice time coupled with breakout seasons by Cozens and Mitts.

I went and plowed through all 32 teams last year and the East is so much deeper and more balanced The average team in the East has at least 10 10+ scorers on the roster including 1.5 D. The West averages less than 9 (8.875) and less than 1 D per team (.875). The West also relies more on their better finishers averaging 4.25+ vs 4 20+ goal scorers, although Stl 9+ 20 goal scorers skews the data slightly. Ultimately the average playoff team has at least 10 10+ goal scorers including 1 to 2 with 10+ and has 5 20 goal scorers. 265+ seems to the number to score to get and stay in contention. Only 2 teams (LV and CBJ) scored 260+ and missed the playoffs and only two teams (Dal and the NYR) made the playoffs without reaching 260. CBJ missed because of terrible goaltending and defense and LV missed because of way to many key injuries. The Rags made it because of top goaltending and defense, not sure how Dallas snuck in. After looking at these numbers, I think more than ever that we are finally on the right track offensively. We have 10+ forwards who can reach 10+ goals and easily 5 or more guys who can score 20. We also have 2 D in Dahlin and Power who can add 10+.

I had a typo. Fla had 13. (Thus 2 of the 8 I looked at).

25% of the 8 I looked at. 10-11 seems to be the most common result. Most teams should expect their top 9 forwards to score at least 10 goals and then add one D who QB’s the PP and you get to 10 pretty easily. The more I delve into this projection the question isn’t the how many players, but how balanced the 10-12 guys are if you plan to roll 4 lines like Ruff did in 2005/6. For example are you like TB with only 10 guys but 8 of which potted 17 to 28 (plus Stamkos’ 40) or are you a top heavy team like Washington who also had 10 guys score in double digits, but most were in the middle to low teens. If the Sabres are going to take the next step, I’d like to see 12 guys score 10+, but I’d rather have 10 guys reach 10+ if 7 of them score 20+ .

I went and looked at a few team, all 8 I looked at had at least 10. Pitt had 12, and Edm 13. I also look at us, LV, TB, Car, Det, and Edm.

Here is a quick team goal projection top scorers - TNT 28, Skinner 27, VO 24, Tuch 23, Cozens 21 Potential for more - Mitts 18, Quinn 17 Solid contributions - KO 15, Krebs 14, JJP 13, Asplund 13 Depth - Z 9, Vinnie 9 Others - 8 (last season Caggulia, Murray, R2, and Jankowski gave us 74 games and 8 goals). With depth of Bjork, Malone, Murray, Biro and others, I don’t think 8 goals is an unreasonable guess. Defense 26 - Dahlin 11, Power 8 and 7 from everyone else. (We had 26 goals by D last year) That’s 265 goals up from 232 last season. This may seem like a huge increase, but it really isn’t. Last year Eakin, Hayden and Bjork played 182 games scoring only 11 goals. We also basically only received half seasons from Tuch, Mitts and Krebs (138 games with 25g). Add full seasons from Tuch, Mitts and Krebs plus the additions of JJP and Quinn and we easily have the potential to add 30-35 goals. Now if we can cut 25 goals against, we’ll reach a 0 goal differential and become a playoff contender.

As I’ve said before, this is the deepest and most talented forward group Buffalo will field since 2005-2007. Like that team, they are 4 lines deep and will have scoring threats throughout the lineup. With a little luck in the health department, all 13 forwards have the ability to score 10+ goals and 9 guys have the skill to put up 20 or more (KO, VO, TnT, Coz, JJP, Quinn, Tuch, Skinner and even Mitts). I’m expecting at least 260 goals this coming season and at least 10 guys in double digits and 5-6 guys with 20 or more.

Lets look at this from lazy journalist point of view. 1) Sabres haven’t made the playoffs in over a decade 2) They made no headline moves in the off-season. Their biggest “splashes” were on a depth defenseman and a goalie with only 19 games of NHL experience 3) Their rivals, in Ottawa, and Det, added extremely well known talent and finished about the same as the Sabres in the standings last year. 4) The Sabres biggest moves are really the addition of 3 touted but unproven rookies in Power, Quinn and JJP and re-signing long-term a player with only one year of good play in Thompson. 5) Their goaltending on paper maybe the worst in the division with a 41 year old and the previously mentioned goalie with 19 games of experience. 6) The team plays in the hardest division in the harder conference. TB, Tor and Fla are almost certainly playoff teams. Ultimately this team is a series of what if’s to the journalist. Will Skinner and KO continue their good play? Can Comrie handle being a starter? How much will the 3 rookies really give next season? Will Thompson and Dahlin continue their high level of player? What will youngsters like Cozens, Mitts, Krebs and Samuelsson bring? We are bullish, but with this much uncertainty it’s easy to understand that in “impartial” observer may not agree.

Prince Daemon or Prince Philip