GASabresIUFAN

So you want to talk numbers. (Seattle only has 2 years of draft history.) 12 teams, besides the Sabres, drafted more than their allotment of 21 picks (aka 22 or more picks) over the last 3 years. Those 12 teams averaged 8 D drafted during that period. We drafted 5 on 27 picks. Only the NYR drafted less with 3 D selected on 23 picks. 18 teams drafted 20 or less players during that period. Even these teams averaged 6+ D selected during that period. In fact, only 2 teams in this category drafted less D than the Sabres and they were Edm who took 3 D on 16 picks and Colorado who also took 3 D on 11 picks. Furthermore, there were 13 teams with an above allotment in 1 and 2 round picks (7 or more), besides the Sabres (The Sabres had 10 such picks). Of this group, all but one took more D in the first 2 rounds than the Sabres (Wpg also drafted just 1, but on 7 picks and they still managed to tie our 5 overall on their 15 picks overall). The average number of D taken by these 13 teams was 3. Ana took 5, NJ 4 and Ott 4. @dudacek There are no % or numbers that support the idea that KA has drafted enough D overall or in the 1st two rounds of the draft. He has simply not done enough to stock the pipeline with D. Had he signed a few college UFAs to supplement the pipeline, I wouldn't be belabouring the point, but he hasn't done that either. You also asked about the opportunity to draft D when we drafted (and I'll add Goalies as well since that is another area of weakness). The facts are that he has excellent opportunities. D like Seamus Casey and Mattias Havelid, who had 1st rd grades by most analysts were still available when he reached for the goalie in the 2nd. When he reached for Rosen in 2021, 2 top-flight goalies were still available. Wallstadt had a top 10 grade. Savoie's teammate Lambos was also available. On the 2 2nd rd picks, why did both have to be forwards? There were 5 D taken in the next 7 picks after Poltapov and another 5 in the next 8 picks after Kisakov. 2 of the players drafted after Kisakov are in the NHL including JJ Moser who already has 107 games under his belt. I give him a pass for 2020 because of the lack of picks, but there is no excuse for taking only 4 D in 22 picks in 2021 and 2022.

I said that he was the wrong hire the day he was hired. That doesn’t change the fact that he do make an effort to build a good D group including 3/4 of our top 4 and our top D prospect.

Jbot? 4/6 of our D were acquired or drafted by Jbot. Dahlin, Samuelsson and Bryson were Jbot’s picks. Our only legit prospect, Johnson, was a Jbot pick. He also traded a prospect for Jokiharju. Basically Jbot invested 3 high round picks on defense in his 3 drafts compared to KA’s 1. He also acquired Montour and Miller to supplement his prospect pool. Montour is a good player who was wasted here and Miller was mediocre at best. What more was he supposed to do?

Because he’s an NHL player and is only the 3rd of 6 we need to field a good D group. The question remains how do will fill the other 3 slots longterm. Anyone who brings up Lindgren and the other late rounds picks is asking to hit the lottery. Players like those have a 15% chance of playing 100 games in the NHL and you mostly get guys like Bryson for your trouble. KA has used only 18% of his draft capital on D. The league average is 33% during KA’s tenure. Only perennial playoff teams (read teams with limited No of picks) have spent less than KA’s 18%. For teams with a similar number of picks that last three years all have drafted more D in numbers and/or more during the first 2 rounds. If my memory serves most of the teams with 25 plus picks have drafted at least 3 D in the first 2 rounds over that period. KA drafted one. If this team misses the playoffs, every post mortem for the season will focus on the inadequate D and goaltending and wonder what will be done to fix them because there is no immediate help coming from the prospect pile line.

Why do other team’s inadequate pipeline’s even matter? The fact is we don’t have enough to fill our needs over the next several years. Other than Johnson, Komarov is the closest and he is a 5th rd pick, who may not be ready for another 3 year if at all. Depth on D has been a major weakness of rebuild 3.0 and won’t be fixed until the very stubborn GM chooses to fix it. Band-aids like Lyubushkin and Stillman won’t cut it any longer. His attempt to get Chychrun is a hopeful sign that he realizes that this is an urgent problem and can only be repaired by a trade such as Chychrun or committing to a FA. KA also needs to fix the pipeline. Drafting some in the first 2 rounds would help. Possibly trading a F prospect for a D prospect would also be nice. The LA Kings have some to spare. Signing a college UFA should also be considered. I’d like to wake up in the Fall and see the Amerks with 3 legit prospects playing for them. KA has 8 current NHL players under contract or control. A minimum of two need to be upgraded starting with Power’s partner.

The thing that should scare our opponents is what do they do when JJP and Quinn mature? Then the next wave is Savoie and Kulich. Last year we had one scoring line. This year we have two. Next year we’ll have 3 and hopefully a strong checking line that can contribute. Last season we had 4 20 goal scorers, 4 others with 10-13 and only scored 229 goals. This season, Vinnie and KO have fallen back with diminished roles, yet now we already have 5 20 goal scorers, plus 3 10-14 and another 4 guys likely to reach double figures before the season ends. With 19 games left we have already scored 233 goals. This year’s team might even reach 300 goals by year’s end. So what should happen next year? Who knows, but I fully believe that Cozens can be a 35 goal scorer with Quinn 25, JJP and Mitts 20 and Krebs 15. What’s Power upside? How many will we score then as a team? If KA gets a goaltender and a partner for Power this off-season, this team can easily be the next TB Lightning.

We don’t need him to be Kelce. His job, at first, will be to block, help protect Josh, lead out runs, free Knox into the pattern, and give Josh an outlet and huge red zone/3rd down target. Over time he’ll get more involved in the passing game.

Chad Ruhwedel has carved out a solid career from such a signing, but that is the type of player we should expect from a college UFA signing.

it's been that way since opening night. The 8-game losing streak was primarily caused by losing 3 D to injury. We don't have enough good people in lower roles who can elevate when injuries occur. At forward that's going to change and soon. On defense and in goal, I still don't see the necessary depth and this has been an issue that KA has needed to address for two years and hasn't done the job adequately.

Losing Tuch, Mule and even Stillman couldn't have come at a worse time. Also getting nearly zero production from KO, Z, JJP and VO doesn't help either.

He is at the top of my list as well.

DG took Mitts away from VO and his production dried up. That is not a coincidence.

Better late than never. The D is simply not good enough, although the Fasching goal was BS.

As soon as they pull me back in they push me out again. As disappointment sets in, one knows they'll win 3 straight to get everyone back in it and then they lay 2 eggs again. Rollercoaster to the end.

Are you and TageMVP brothers? The assists question has been raised many times. The goal scorers that can score off of feeds but also can create opportunities for themselves, like TnT and Quinn are the most valuable of all, but if you ask me if I want a guy like Casey over a guy like VO, I'd take Casey in a second. Ask Ovie how valuable Kuznetsov is. Ask the guys who played with Adam Oates how valuable he was.

I was laughing at the part of the comment that there will always be someone to take minutes away from. That's funny and true.

Great nickname. 2 thumbs up.

Are you implying that I just like to argue by taking the contrary position to many of the board? Ok, you got me.

No. My faith in him, and it has been tested at times (Thanks RK), stems from the player I saw at the World Jrs and the player that emerged when RK finally got fired. My fear was we'd give up on him too soon and he'd explode with his next team. Fortunately, DG has a way of seeing a player's potential and experimenting until he finds that player's highest and best use. The list is getting near endless, Thompson, Tuch, Skinner, Dahlin, Jost, Krebs, and now Casey. There are guys who haven't taken a step forward like Asplund and Bryson, but those may be cases of not enough there to unlock. I'm so looking forward to how he unlocks Greenway's potential.

I'd be more worried about a back slide caused by injuries. I thought last off-season that Thompson might regress due to his historically high shooting %, but the truth was that he finally matured into his body and DG's offense gave him the freedom to unlock his skill set. He is going to be a threat to score 50 annually for 5 or more year to come. Casey and Cozens are forming a very dangerous partnership. Together they have another level in them. Cozens is only 22. Dahlin is only 22. The only issues here are health and whether the team gives the improving Power more PP pt. We honestly could see them play together at times soon and won't that be scary for our opponents The two who could trail off are Skinner, age 30, and Tuch, but I doubt it for next year. Tuch is only 26 and is in his prime. Skinner at 30 plays the kind of game that translates to longevity in production. He almost never sits out more than a few games a year and seems to have a nack for finding open ice around the net. He might be able to pot 30 at 35. He's a winger version of Pavelski.

Turns out I was correct. 🙂 It's so nice not to have to fight with everyone over him any longer.

The cap isn't an issue now. We are at about 65 million for next season and may not be an issue for years to come if the projected cap increase happens as predicted. Let's say for example that Casey hits 70 points next year and you trade him before 2024-25, what kind of production would you expect from a 20-year-old Kulich and/or Savoie? 20-year-old Cozens had 38 pts in 79 games. 21-year-old Quinn has 29 in 55 games. 20-year-old JJP has 21 in 59 games. 20-year-old Casey had 25 pts in 77 games. So even if they are exceptional as rookies, we are unlikely to replace Casey's production and strength along the boards. For team looking to compete in the playoffs, isn't that arguably a step backward if we can afford to keep him?

@TRIP65 I was joking. I'm one of Casey's biggest supporters here. I think he has the potential to be a pt-a-game player in the NHL. I think we are seeing much of that potential unlocked as he has formed excellent chemistry with his buddy Cozens. That said, I am also a realist. Due to our forward depth and the development of guys like JPP, Kulich, and Savoie, the odds of us not being able to afford to keep Casey increase with his improved production. Fortunately, he is under contract for one more season and I'm pretty confident he'll be back next fall. Still, as I pointed out up thread if the price to get a quality player to partner with Power is Casey, KA would have to consider it.

I think you are interpreting my use of evaluation as a negative. I’m not. I’m talking about giving KA another year to decide if he needs to make a long-term commitment to those players. Jost is an RFA and Casey has one more year. If Casey builds on this season next year there will be a strong argument to retain him long-term. However if he doesn’t then giving his job to Kulich/Savoie etc becomes easier. KA might have to cut Casey loose anyway, but at least he’ll have more info to make that hard decision.

.and best suited for 3rd pairing duty, but KA has invested in two significantly more physical D for the 3rd pair in Stillman and Lyubishkin. I think Joki has value and would bring a decent asset in return. I don't mind if he comes back as a 3rd pair player, but priority No 2. this off-season, after fixing the goaltending, is a better partner for Power. As to the forwards, I posted these stats in the "Who Sits" thread. JJP will back because he is so talented and I'm not worried about him improving year over year. The other 3, we probably can do better.