
mjd1001
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Jack Quinn, what is your expectation for his 2024 season?
mjd1001 replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
26 goals, 65 points, if he is healthy the entire year. Possibly more if he becomes a fixture on the 1st PP unit all the time. -
The Sabres will make the playoffs this season if ___________
mjd1001 replied to #freejame's topic in The Aud Club
Biggest thing, yes -Tage gets back close to 45-50 goals.....likely imo. -UPL plays like he did at the end of last season...IMO likely. -Defense takes another slight step up ..imo likely. -besides Tage, the get 3-4 other 20-25 goal scorers ...imo iffy. -they have some luck with several other Eastern Conference teams having injury issues or starting to show age...imo Iffy. -
I just read a post this morning before mine on this very thread where someone advocated for it, and at least 2-3 times in the past week or two in other threads I have seen people suggest it.
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A lot of people have Tuch going down to the 2nd line away from Thompson. That is one thing I do not want to see. I see their games working well together. Tuch is probably the best forchecker on the team, might be one of the best in the league and he has the speed to do it. I think he works well with Thompson because Tage doesn't do that (or want to do that) as much. Cozens on the other hand is very aggressive, kinda like Tuch but in an even more 'all gas/no brakes' type of way. I just think Tuch works well with Thompson, and would not work as well with Cozens. Quinn and Peterka (especially Quinn) aren't the full speed ahead-all the time type players, so that works better with Cozens.
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Last year New Jersey was mid pack in goals scored (despite being ruined by injuries to their top players). The year before that when they were healthy with Ruff, they were 4th in the league in goals. Over the last 2 years they have outscored the Sabres. I think when you say "Jersey clone", you aren't referring to the Devils now, but maybe the team they haven't been for years and years and years. Now if you would have said the Islanders, that would make more sense, but Jersey? Not really.
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The 'new' NY state thruway rest stops. It seems the Millions and millions of dollars spent on rebuilding the rest areas on the thuway, well, they made them WORSE. Some of them only have a handful of stalls in the restrooms. The new rest stops have LESS than the old ones (5 or more people in the restroom, you are waiting in line.) And, I'm personally not driving an EV, but at a couple we stopped at they installed EV chargers, but I think I counted 4 chargers at one and 6 at another. If you are going to spend the money to install them, how about installing enough of them so that if EV's are a lot more popular in a few years, there won't be a line waiting to use them. But yeah, the restroom thing really gets to me. How do you have LESS than before? At a place that that majority of people driving who stop there do so to use the restroom?
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Grit Rankings 2: The 4th Line Strikes Back (2024 Ed.)
mjd1001 replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
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You can look at how he deployed guys in NJ 2 years ago (his last full season there with a 112 point team). And yes, some here will argue the success they had was less Ruff and more his assistants. I personally disagree with that but even if it is true, its likely Ruff had more input into ice time when behind the bench: His top pair D had about 21 minutes per game. Dougie Hamilton, his best D-man, was averaging in the mid 21 min range. 2nd pair guys around 19 minutes. 3rd pair guys (Ryan Graves and Brendan Smith) still typically 15-18 minutes per game. He spread his D-minutes out. As a reminder, Dahlin last year got almost 25 and a half minutes per game, Power was over 22 per game. Forwards? Jack Hughes was clearly at the top of the list. 43 goals, 99 points (would have had over 100 had he not missed a few games), yet he averaged under 20 minutes per game. Hischier also just above 19 minutes. Timo Meier? just over 17 minutes. He seemed to have spread it out better than what we have been used to here for a while now.
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I'm not sure if it is going to work, but the plan for this team long term might be to have a 'decent' forward group, but to have the best D-group in the league, at least top 2 pairings that can be out there close to 75% of the time and in virtually all critical situations. I think it was the 2014 Olympics, Canada played 6 games I think and allowed a total of 3 or 4 goals over that entire time. Yes, they had good goaltending and yes, they had great forwards, but they won because the d-pairings were suffocating. They played the game the right way, hardly made mistakes, and most importantly, once they got the puck on their stick in their own zone they skated or passed it out easily. My guess is the team's vision for when the Sabres will be really good is to have them play that way, total control of the game from the blue line. I'm not saying it will WORK, but that seems to be the play.
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Florida, Boston, Toronto, Carolina, Rangers. I think most think those 5 teams are a lock for 5 of the 8 spots. Tampa finished 14 points ahead of the Sabres. Did the Sabres do enough to pass them, PROBALY not. So there is 6. 2 spots left. Detroit finished 7 points ahead last year, they added. Washington, Pittsburgh, Philly, the Islanders also finished ahead of the Sabres. Can the Sabres finish ahead of all of them except for one? Then you look behind them. I personally think New Jersey is up there with the top 5. They were ravaged by injuries last year, and they might have the best maturing core. Ottawa is improving. Montreal also, but I think Montreal has farther to go. It could be this year, it might take 96-98 points to make the playoffs.
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Trade: C Ryan McLeod - Oilers for Matt Savoie
mjd1001 replied to tom webster's topic in The Aud Club
You disagree that he SHOULD be gone? or that he MIGHT be gone? I didn't intend my post to say he SHOULD be gone, I'm at the very least for an open position in camp....my post was intended to say regardless of whether, myself, you, the fanbase wants him here, he might be the odd man out. -
I understand your view, and I go back and forth, but I'd rather give UPL a longer deal. If you overpay Cozens or Power and they turn out to be 'average', its a MUCH bigger financial penalty than if you UPL turns out to be 'average' and not your starter. My thinking is you aren't going to pay UPL a 7 year deal for 7-9 million. If you give him 3 years for 4.5....that is hurting you a lot less. Its a gamble, but I'd think..risking 4.5 million for the potential reward/failure is a much less risk than spending long term on the other deals. Goalie is the ONE area I would take a risk, especially if its likely to be half the length of a deal and maybe 60% the money of those other guys. UPL reaching his potential helps you just as much, if not more, than those other guys for likely less of a cost.
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Trade: C Ryan McLeod - Oilers for Matt Savoie
mjd1001 replied to tom webster's topic in The Aud Club
I agree there. When they were healthy, the Sabres PK of Tage and him up front, Samuelsson in the back end worked well. Put the tall guys out there with a lot of reach. They can pretty much stand in their spot and not 'chase' the puck that much because they covered so much ground with their reach and stick. I actually like that method of PK. When you have too much movement on the PK, when you chase the puck (my personal issue with Cozens), you leave areas open and that is when teams take advantage of you. Now the question is...does Ruff want the same kind of PK? Big guys, don't move around too much to let the other team get you out of position? Or does he want a pressure based PK (where someone like Cozens might excel and guys like Tage and Greenway might not be as good?) -
Trade: C Ryan McLeod - Oilers for Matt Savoie
mjd1001 replied to tom webster's topic in The Aud Club
He was better there, but still not 'fast'. But even if the Sabres 'system' was slow, he still ranks toward the bottom on the team of players that played in the same system. Its not just skating speed as I said above. He clearly isn't as fast as most of guys they are bringing in for the 3rd and 4th line. But for those bottom 6 spots, it is becoming a numbers game, and someone may have to go. Greenway was brought in as someone who played for Granato in the past, he doesn't have that history with Ruff. I'm not saying he is gone for sure, I'm just saying it won't surprise me if he is gone..or at least spending more time in the press box. -
Trade: C Ryan McLeod - Oilers for Matt Savoie
mjd1001 replied to tom webster's topic in The Aud Club
According to NHL edge, he is one of the very slowest players in the league for top speed and speed bursts over 20. If you look at the previous year, he was closer to average, but he is no where near the guys they are putting together right now. -
Trade: C Ryan McLeod - Oilers for Matt Savoie
mjd1001 replied to tom webster's topic in The Aud Club
I know many disagree with me, but I think Greenway may be the odd man out. They obviously want guys who are fast, VERY fast on those bottom 2 lines (all are except for Zucker and Zucker is "OK"). Greenway doesn't fit. Also, I know its not the main reason Skinner is gone, but he was one of the slower forwards on the team (Skinner) and he's gone. There is just a chance Adams/Ruff for some reason want to put together one of the fastest skating teams in the league, at least the bottom 2 lines, and Greenway doesn't fit.. Plus he was brought in as one of 'Granato's guys'. Again, he has a role and he has some good qualities, and I know a lot of people here like him....just to me it wouldn't be surprising if he isn't on the 3rd line, or even a regular on the 4th once the regular season starts. I think he is going to have to have one of the best training camps ever to convince Ruff to be a regular in the lineup. -
Trade: C Ryan McLeod - Oilers for Matt Savoie
mjd1001 replied to tom webster's topic in The Aud Club
Not really. One group was clamoring for a trade and they made their voices heard in the past. Another group was quiet then, they were happy because there was no over pay. Now the group that wanted the trade is quiet (they got what they want) but the group that doesn't like overpaying is sounding off. Schizophrenice not really....just different people speaking up when they do/don't get what 'their side' wants. -
I sure am. Again, we know he had an arm/wrist injury last year, that was admitted to, and again, the drop in production mirrors what Matthews did a couple years ago. Its not 'coping'. Its taking data that is given, applying a similar data set to it and drawing a logical conclusion. That may be correct, it may be incorrect, but to me it seems most of the 'coping' being done on this board is by the perma-negatives that just want to make fun of anything they don't agree with.
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That might be true, but I look at his shooting percentage. Since he moved to center, for 2 years it was close to 15%. Last year it dropped quite a bit....and there is a reason for it...a possible/likely injury. I did a huge write up a few months ago how Austin Matthews had a similar injury for a season, and that was the season his production dropped. The percentage his production dropped, his shooting percentage drop, almost EXACTLY mirrored what Tage went through for one year with a similar injury. Tage didn't get less shots last year, it was just the first time in 2 seasons (not one season of sample size like with Cozens), that there was a difference. So, I could be wrong of course but that is why I think Tage is back to his form of the previous 2 years, not what you got last year.
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I'm still on my thinking if Tage is healthy, you are getting around 50 goals from him this year.
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It will be interesting to see. Skinner is good at scoring 2 ways...off the rush, and garbage goals right in front of the net. That seems to be most of his scoring. PP, not really. Cycling the puck around in a controlled way in the Offensive zone, he's not all that dangerous there. So, you would think with fast guys like in Edmonton, he will thrive off the rush. But, can he keep up? Skinner is a decent skater, but he as hardly any speed. Skinner doesn't even have average top end speed, he is SLOW. McDavid strength is he plays at full speed almost all the time with the puck. Will Skinner be able to keep up, or in order to do so will he have to 'cheat' even more away from the D-zone?
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OT: Things (mostly sports related) that you think are overrated
mjd1001 replied to mjd1001's topic in The Aud Club
As a kid, I snuck a small radio into my room at night so I could listen to Baseball games that started at 10 or 10:30 pm when my parents didn't want me to. In my teens and 20's, I watched baseball almost every night. In my early 30's, I may have been so busy that I couldn't watch every game with full attention, but it was on the TV, at least as background noise, 140-150 nights per year. I'm in my later 40's now, and just in the last 5-7 years, I have totally, 100% stopped. I like sports and watch sports, but all of a sudden have have zero interest in it. If I even see a game on TV, I might (once or twice a month) try to watch it and I can't even last 2-3 minutes and I think it is so awful and boring. I have some theories, but I don't know why 100%. I was a huge baseball fan, I collected baseball cards, sticker books, played strat-o-matic baseball with anyone who would play as a kid, did all the video games....now...nothing. -
OT: Things (mostly sports related) that you think are overrated
mjd1001 replied to mjd1001's topic in The Aud Club
100% agree. There seems to be more hype around it than the winter games. I personally enjoy many of the sports in the winter games, but I can't even really think of one event in the Summer games I watch. As a kid I used to like track and field events..but now...ehh. -
OT: Things (mostly sports related) that you think are overrated
mjd1001 replied to mjd1001's topic in The Aud Club
I agree with that for sure. On one hand it make it less of a 'farmers market'. On the other hand, it is more to look at and try....to me there are only so many people you can by a pint of tomatoes from.