mjd1001

At least at recently, thing don't look all that good for Players drafted in the 7, 8, or 9 overall position by the Sabres in recent memory: -Ristolainen #8: turned out to be a pretty bad defender. -Alex Nylander #8: Bust -Mitts #8: demoted for now, maybe less than what Colorodo expected, 2 goals in his last 36 games. -Cozens #7: Overrated based on goal totals for one season. A pretty bad 2 way player. -Quinn #8: I guess maybe coming around this year, but an awful year so far up until the last week. -Savoie #9: Jury's still out, but hasn't take any steps up in camp or in his limited NHL chances so far. If you could choose only one of the following to have on the Sabres right now and not the other: Mitts or Cozens?

OK, not that it is likely to happen. But lets suppose its possible: Why are they unhappy with him? what is it about his play that caused them to demote of the 2nd line, and that they are willing to trade him (meaning they must not think his play is immediatly 'fixable'). I haven't really followed him a lot recently, and haven't watched a lot of Colorado games. So to those that have, what is wrong with his play or just why do the want to move him?

That was my impression. When the Sabres are up by a goal, and the other team pulls the goalie. When the Sabres are 5v6 (other team pulls their goalie), they have allowed 6 goales (Toronto is the worst with allowing 9, Vancouver and C-bus at 7....Buffalo is tied for 4th worst with 6). On the other side of the spectrum, when the Sabres pull their goalie because they are behind, (6v5), the Sabres are 4th worse also by allowing 12 empty netters against. Here is the 'net' of it. When a goalie is pulled, either on, in a game the Sabres are involved in, they have allowed 18 goals scored against them. In the same situations, they have scored 12. So when either team pulls a goalie, Buffalo is a net -6 on the year. Not good, but not as dismal as I thought.

I'm thinking McLeod is fine long term as a #3 guy. The problem is the lack of a #2 guy. The immediate short term solution to the center issue to me is to have Krebs and McLeod be your middle 6 centers. Cozens should be moved out or moved to wing on the 3rd line. McLeod and Krebs will give you less 'goals' than Cozens, but will more than make up for that with much better play without the puck and Krebs has the POTENTIAL to help line makes score more. That is not the long term solution though. Medium term solution would be to aquire a veteran Center that is decent in the middle 6. Good luck with that though....75% of the rest of the league wants a middle-6 center. I was listening to 590 out of Toronto the last few days, and they are so desperate for a center talk is they would be willing to move their 1st AND one of their top prospects. Other teams would be willing to do the same, and even if you can match that or beat it, the guy you have has to want to come here instead of to a playoff contender. Long term I'm still fine with McLeod and/or Krebs in the #3 center spot, but you have to hope one of your prospects steps up to be a possible #2 guy, or you move heaven-and-earth in the offseason to trade for/sign one. You might need to identify the "Zucker" version of a Center on the offseason and basically overpay him to the tune of $2m per year than what anyone else is willing to (Would Pegula be willing to do that though?) I don't think you are 'fixing' the #2 center spot right now, too much competition for guys (unless you make a HUGE move for Pettersson). So I think the only 'fix' for now is to have Krebs and McLeod as your middle 2 guys with Cozens moving to wing or out the door.

My anti-Cozens comment of the day incoming. But before I say that, I will say even though I missed more than half the game last night, Cozens did score and I did NOT see any obvious mental mistakes by him. So unless I missed something, Cozens had an above-average game. Back to my Cozens-bashing. That xGF list, especially for forwards, doens't seem to include a players shooting percentage as a factor. So if someone is lower on the list, they may have more of a positive impact on the team if they have a higher shooting percentage (Thompson, Zucker, and Tuch are all in the 14%+ range). Cozens on the other hand, has the lowest shooting percentage of any forward on the team who has taken more than 25 shots for the entire year. So his low spot on this list is actually worse than it appears because he doesn't convert on as many of his chances, even his 'high danger' chances. As far as McLeod goes, Ilike him. He went really cold for a while, going over 20 games without scoring a goal. But he is what he is, a guy that can score 16-22 goals for you. To me thats pretty good for him, and when a guy scores in that range, it isn't terribly uncommon to have very long stretches without a goal.

I would imagine it might be the #1 used one (at least a version of it) across all forums for all teams in all leagues. I can't think of anything that might/could be used more.

I was thinking of this very thing this morning. I went to the NHL web site to see how many goals they allowed when the other team brought on the extra skater. I was sure they would be leading the league. They actually aren't. It still seems like they are really bad at defending it, but there are a few teams worse.

Getting emails from companies or political organizations that I never signed up for Yeah, I know sometimes you'll answer a survey online, make a purchase from someplace new, and deep in their fine print there might be something about selling your info, or sharing it with their partners. But I'm usually very careful about that. And in the past couple months, I have not signed up for any new social media sites or apps...not downloaded any new games or apps to my phone,....not given my email or phone number at all to anyone to 'get a coupon code for my first purchase'. Nothing like that. Yet over the past 30 days, my email is getting flooded...mostly from companies I never heard of, but as I said above from politial groups. I unsubscribe, day after day, email after email, yet they keep coming. Today was the worst morning of all of them. Worst offenders are companies trying to sell me medical equipment or drugs (for ailments I have never had), or telling me about benefits I can receive as a Senior Citizen (I'm not one), or for some reason sites and blogs about Tesla...Sign a petition to defend Elon musk from his evil enemies! Come to our site to read why Tesla is going to be the biggest company in the world in 6 months! Enough. Stop. And another minor complaing...when I do unsubscribe, the web page usually confirms that. The reason I am unsubscribing is I want my email inbox to be CLEAN of stuff I don't want. Yet every one in a while, I'll unsubscribe from a email, and then IMMEDIATELY get another email from them telling me that I unsubscribed. You already confirmed it on your page...the very thing I am doing is tryhing to NOT get another single email from you and yet you send me an email to tell me I won't get any more emails.

Bryum has been averaging a few seconds short of 25 minutes per game over the last 4 games (yes, OT games in there but still alot). Dahlin in close games frequently gets 25 minutes or more. I just thought it was of note that usually one of those 2 leads in ice time. With Dahlin I guess, like Thompson, we don't know if he is still playing injured or not.

No its not enough. Columbus in the last spot in terms of point percentage at .545. IF the Sabres win the next 10 in a row, they check in at .546. So win 10 in a row and you are 'right there'. Funny how for the last few weeks, even now after winning 6 of the last 10, the numbers always point toward a 9-12 game winning streak being required to get them into that last playoff spot.

I'm not going to say he is doing great, because doing great would mean he is taking these players and turning them into something a lot better than the have been. But with the team being 'not good' again, I can't say he's doing bad either, as no one seems to be able to take this organization and coach them up to even a playoff team. You've promoted coaches from within, brought in former coaches of the team, brought in former cup winners, brought in guys who are 'almost' total outsiders, up-and-coming assistants from other teams. Many of them with apparently different styles. NONE of that has even gotten you to the playoffs. To me that means there is something else VERY rotten in the organization, and firing the coach and replacing him, without making major other changes, will likely do nothing. Sure, you COULD move on from Lindy AND Make those other changes, but if it is the other changes that are important, I'd rather keep Lindy and just make the other required changes at the same time.

I only watched a little bit of the game, I missed the ending. Looking at time on ice..... Thompson with 15 minutes exactly, about 3.5 minutes below his average (I know he is playing hurt) Cozens with only 13:38. Almost 4 minutes less than his average for the season. Malenstyn, Zucker, Tuch, and McLeod all with more ice time than either Thompson or Cozens. On Defense, Power led with just over 23 minutes....more than both Dahlin and Byrum who both were in the 21 minute range. For sure some changes in how he gave out ice time. I can see with a lead for most of the game and Thompson playing hurt again to cut down on his ice time, but the Cozens, Dahlin and Byrum are interesting.

For me, he has the same impact as Don Cherry had: Fun for a little while, then after a while becoming 'tolerable' , now just annoying.

Thanks. At times I think the Advanced stats go too deep and we try to make too much of them, but the link you gave was interesting. I looked at this year, along with the last 2 years combined, and then over their entire careers. I also used the comparison with Cozens and Dahlin (instead of Thompson), and did that over different points in their career. It also looks like the PP with Dahlin is actually more effective without Cozens than with him in terms of goal production per minute.

I guess it could be similar to when Granato was an assistant under Ralph Kruger... But when he took over he seemed to be a totally different coach than Krueger was. I just go back to my initial feeling though, even if somebody is different than Adams, how much are they going to be allowed to do if they have to follow the 'Pegula plan' If everything has to get run by Terry... Terry acts like a fan and he has his favorite players that he doesn't want to move and he still wants input on decisions.... Just how much can anyone do unless the owner steps back?

We don't know just how many teams are interested in him, and if they are, what is his value to them? You may have a lot of teams interested in him for a 2nd round pick or a mid level prospect. What I believe is teams are not falling over themselves to give up a legit NHL play or a top draft pick for someone who's production isn't all that good/reliable and makes costly mistake after costly mental mistake on the ice. Fans may see the scoresheet and want a guy like that...but when front office people watch the game film, I think they are going to say "no thanks" or "we'll take a flyer on him and see if we can coach him up", but for a pretty low return.

I don't think you are going to get a good return for him. Twitter post I saw today by someone who is pretty reliable with Leafs info said the Leafs have no interest in all in Cozens. I think that opinion may be true with many other teams around the league when you look at his underlying metrics and the scouts see with their own eyes the multiple hockey-dumb plays he makes, almost on a nightly basis. I'd be happy with him just moving on. He can be 'part' of a package. Or get a middle-six guy, I don't care give me anything of value. What I think will happen is what you are eluding to.....the Sabres might move him for REAL fair value (which won't be all that much, and certainly a LOT less than what some people expect)....and that might be a good move for the Sabres, it might be the BEST deal out there from any team....yet there will be complaint after complaint that the sabres got 'fleeced' when that really isn't the case based on what Cozens true value actually is around the league..

And be replaced with someone just like him, and Pegula will likely only hire someone who will do his bidding and not disagree with him.

And if that happens, the team will be run pretty much the same. Especially since Karmanos and Forton are already in on the decision making/player evaluation right now, and the roster composition has some of their fingerprints on it.

As much as I personally think Cozens brings down this team more than any other player, I think there is a path to keeping him here (its just no coach, GM or the owner seems interested in implementing it): -He becomes a winger, on the 3rd line or MAYBE the 2nd. I don't care if he has more 'raw talent' than whoever his center is, he is a winger....And if its not working right away...stick with it. Give him time to get used to his new center and more importantly, give his center time to get used to Cozens. -He does not step foot on the ice on the PP. If you have 2 or 3 injuries, then MAYBE he goes out on the 2nd unit, but no PP time for him anymore. -You DO put him out there on the PK, but with specific instructions to not chase the puck in his own zone. Hes on my first PK unit, but you have to get through his head that his position, not leaving an open spot on the ice by chasing the puck, is of paramount importance. You draw a diagram on the ice into 4 quadrants....and if he DOES chase the puck he never, ever leaves his quadrant and goes into another one that one of his teammates is already occupying.

The more I think about it, the more I want Pettersson here if it can be done. Yeah the drop in production, whatever it is going on with Miller, and the contract are all issues to think about. But if those things weren't there, there is no chance he would be on the market. I always perceived him as a player I liked. I know its only one game, but I watched in vs the Leafs on Saturday and he played really hard, he hustled, he got in the way of shots, he made some really good defensive plays. He does not look at all like a perimeter player and he does hustle on plays. That alleviates most of my concerns.

I never thought he was a bust. I DID think his ceiling was 35 goals. He would be good on the PP, but not someone I would want out there short handed due to...what I percieved as lack of being a good skater. So yeah, not a bust, but I WAY underestimated the ceiling on his production.

I think TNT At the point might be related to his injury. He can't take faceoffs, and I think they are moving him off the wing due to that also. Not only is his one timer great on the side, but even if the other team covers it up, to do that they open up the ice for the other 4 guys out there on the PP. I too would rather see him back on the wing. Back to Cozens....The other stat I never looked up until now...PP goals for per 60 on ice (not PP goals per 60, that is individual, the goals FOR is about when you are on the ice). Meaning, how many goals does your team score on the PP when you are on the ice, whether you score it , you have an assist, or are just on the ice creating havoc in front of the net. Now the key thing with this stat is, since you are sharing the ice with the same teamates a lot of time the numbers should be close with other players on your team. But that is good for evaluation. Even a SLIGHT increase or decrease in your numbers will say that the few times you are out there with 'other guys' you are potentially helping, or hurting them more than other players on the team. For his career heas at 7.55. Behind Tuch, Thompson, Skinner, and Mitts. If when they share the ice their numbers are the same, that means in games where Cozens is out (injury) or where the are on different units, those guys perform better with him NOT on the ice with him. (I am only looking at forwads here, BTW Tuch's numbers on the PP have droped SIGNIFICANTLY in the past 1.5 years, something to watch.) Now, him, and some of those guys were different players if you go back 4-5 years ago, so how about recently? This year he is at 6.17. Thompson is 8.79, Zucker 9.12, Peterka 10.14, Quinn 7.63... only Tuch has fallen behind him this year. My math may be a bit 'wonky'...but let say him and Thompson are on the PP together 50% of the time. Their numbers would be the same for that time on that ice. That means the other 50% of the time, the differnece between the 2 would double. I don't know the exact time they share on the PP together, but whatver the numbers are, those guys perform better statistically with him not on the ice with him as they do when he is out there with him. So yeah, I get I'm the president of the "Cozens needs to go" fanclub. But how can a guy score 1 goal every 29 games on the PP.....have his numbers be worse than most other forwards in terms of Total goals for per 60 ont he PP (meaning he brings down the other guys when he is on the ice, both this year and for his career?) How can he still be getting PP minutes? Oh, and the thing I posted about his games missed last year after he got hurt against philly. Small sample size, but in the 3 games before he got hurt with him on every PP, sabres didn't score a single PP goal. 2 games he missed they scored a PP goal in both games. 3 or 4 games after he got back with him on the PP, they team didn't score a single PP goal again. Here is one other stat...Over the time he has been in the NHL, he is one of 103 forwards that have recorded more than 700 minutes of ice time on the Powerplay. He is last of those 103 players in PP goals scored. 103 guys, he is 103rd in goals. In points, he is 101st out of 103, but the two guys behind him have less assists but a lot more goals.

They made a mistake. He had 18 Power play POINTS that year, but only 5 power play goals. For his career, he has 11 power play goals. Whoever wrote that article must have looked at the stats for that year and mistaked PP points for goals. Part of my not being a fan of Cozens is being perplexed why he is on the PP. He has been on virtually every single powerplay over the past 3-4 years, being 2nd or 3rd in PP minutes among forwards (at one point a few weeks ago he was first this year). The Stats don't support it. If he plays just about every single PP, why does he have 1 Powerplay goal every 29-30 games.....those are his stats. Now watch him on the PP. He doesn't have the ability to get the puck and look around and make a great pass. When he gets the puck in a 'high danger' area its almost always a shot.....even if that shot needs to go through 2 defenders forming a wall in front the goalie or the goalie is perfectly set for the shot. I like to say he's a "black hole"...the puck goes in to him but it hardly ever comes back out....He'll take the shot and get credit for that 'high danger chance' that analytic guys so much like even if in reality he's rushing a shot and a teamate is open for a better chance. He lacks the ability to think, or react other than just that, a reaction. Its why not only is he not good at scoring on the PP, but he doesn't often set up other guys and help his teammates perform better on the PP.

Thats sure part of it. Tuch would be a very good 2nd line winger. He's OK as a first line winger. Thompson is perpetually playing through injuries. Benson, Peterka, and Quinn are up and down young guys, sometimes more 'down' than up. Krebs is finding his spot in the NHL, but only good enough as a 3rd/4th liner. Your entire 2nd line (Cozens, Quinn, and whoever else) are barely playing good enough to be an average 3rd line, let alone a 2nd. Cozens is way over his head as a 2C, he should be at most a 3rd line winger. On Defense, Byram is skilled but has a limited game. Power looks to be a couple years away from being a steady reliable guy. UPL has flashes of being great, but he really only has been an average NHL goalie. Even 'average' guys stand on their head every once in a while, while having bad games mixed in. That is exactly what he has been the last 2 seasons.