bob_sauve28

Great! You are going to be having us bounce too close to a super nova, that will end our trip real quick!

https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/10/20/some-things-to-know-about-one-goal-games/ Some Things to Know about One-Goal Games October 20, 2015Nick Emptage NHL League-Wide Analysis One of these teams will probably win by one goal. Last season, as hockey analysts struggled to explain how a possession-dominant Kings team failed to make the playoffs while Anaheim and Vancouver topped 100 points, there was a lot of discussion surrounding the role of one-goal games in the standings. LA’s disappointing season was largely dismissed as bad luck, with an argument that went something like this: the outcome of a one-goal game is effectively random, and the Kings’ 13-9-15 record in these games (against the 33-1-7 and 22-4-5 performances of the Ducks and Canucks, respectively) was the difference in keeping them out of the postseason. I wasn’t entirely convinced by this, but it got me thinking about the randomness of close contests. How random are one-goal games, and how significant a problem is this for people trying to use numbers to understand why some teams win and others don’t? Primarily using WAR on Ice, I gathered game-level data from the nine 82-game NHL seasons from 2005-06 to 2014-15 (because I wanted to look at single-season counts of one-goal games, I excluded the short 2012-13 season), and characterized games as non-1GGs, regulation one-goal games, and OT/SO games. Except in unusual cases where they turned out to be game-winners, I dropped empty-net goals from final scores and characterized the game accordingly. So, for example, a 4-2 game where Team A’s fourth goal was an ENG would still be considered a regulation 1GG. In no particular order, here are five things I found out about one-goal games. 1. One-goal games are increasingly common. There are a lot of reasons for it (the Bettman Point and decreased scoring league-wide are two big ones), but the NHL of today has more close games than ever. Back in 2006-07 and 2007-08, NHL fans were treated to 667 and 668 one-goal games, respectively; in 2013-14, we were up to 709 such games, and last season, there were 730. If you’re not a fan of increasingly random factors determining who gets into the NHL playoffs, this is something that should bother you. 2. Stronger teams win non-one-goal games pretty consistently, but regulation one-goal games aren’t entirely random. If you’re the sort of person that enjoys using numbers to understand the results you see in the NHL (or, you know, you just gamble a lot), you should love non-one-goal games. For one thing, the year-on-year correlation in an NHL team’s non-1GG winning percentage is 0.5; put another way, about 25% of the variation in teams’ win % in non-close games can be explained by last year’s win %. And, as the following scatterplots show, that win % correlates closely to most measures of “this team gets good results”. (Note: These are full-season measures of GF%, CF% and PDO.) The GF% result isn’t surprising (the best way to end up with a big positive goal differential is winning a lot of blowout games, and vice versa), but possession and PDO each have a strong role in driving these outcomes. Now, if one-goal games are random, you’d expect zero autocorrelation from season to season, and you’d expect the graphs below to look like clouds with a flat trend line. And when you look at overtime and shootout games, that’s exactly what you see. But one-goal games ending in regulation fall somewhere between random and predictable. The autocorrelation in teams’ win percentages in these games is about 0.22; not terribly strong, obviously, but also pretty far from zero. What this all suggests is that 5v5-based hockey analytics are awesome in games that aren’t close, useless in OT/SO situations, and marginally useful in regulation one-goal games. It also suggests an interesting endogeneity question (how much of observed shot differentials is attributable to inferior teams playing conservatively to force overtime?) that I’ll let go for now. Given that non-close games are becoming less common, of course, none of this is great news for analytic game prediction. 3. In a lopsided match-up, the stronger team still has an excellent chance of winning a close game. While the above graphs imply that the outcome of a regulation one-goal game is fairly unpredictable, there are situations where analytics still have considerable explanatory power. When one team’s score-adjusted Corsi % is 5 percentage points or more higher than their opponent’s, they win 68% of non-one-goal games, but they also win 60% of regulation 1GGs. When one team’s large-sample even-strength GF% is 5 percentage points or more better than their opponent’s, they win 71% of non-close games and 60% of regulation one-goal contests. In other words, so long as you have a strong sense of the relative underlying strengths of each team, you can be fairly certain that a much stronger team will win any game that doesn’t go to overtime. 4. Home ice advantage and back-to-back games don’t really matter in close games. For someone who’s spent a ton of time writing about home-ice advantage and back-to-back effects, I was a little surprised to see that these effects are almost entirely confined to non-close games. That is, home teams win 59% of all non-1GGs, and teams on a back-to-back win just 40% of the time. In regulation one-goal games, however, the home-ice advantage is just 53% (close to coin-flip territory), and teams on back-to-backs win 48% of the time (both factors are irrelevant in OT and shootout games). 5. It’s largely impossible to guess how many one-goal games a team will play each season. Of course, all of this would be super-useful information if there was a way to predict which games were likely to be one-goal and non-one-goal games. Unfortunately, this isn’t the case. On average, about 42.5% of games are non-1GGs; the only scenario in which the probability of a non-1GG differs much from this is a back-to-back situation, when about 45% of games are non-1GGs. More generally, as shown in the graphs below, teams that drive either a very good or a very bad goal differential will tend to play more non-one-goal games, but the effect is not as strong as you might think. So, what are we left with? On one hand, hockey games are a lot less predictable when the score is tight, and close games are becoming more and more common, but it’s largely impossible to anticipate which games will be close and which teams might play a lot of them. On the other hand, it looks like regulation one-goal contests are less random than some people think. (Shootouts are either a crapshoot, or they’re not.) These results can help us to make educated guesses about how often specific teams might face each type of game scenario, and how they might fare. For example, non-one-goal games might be more common in the Eastern Conference, where back-to-backs are more frequent. And, to the extent that forecasts of teams’ possession differential and 5-on-5 goal differential are becoming increasingly refined, this information may help in guessing how specific match-ups might play out. And, on the assumption that PDO will tend to regress strongly to average for most teams, it stands to reason that teams getting crushed in possession might find themselves on the wrong end of a lot of non-1GGs. Still, more work needs to be done before these can be much more than guesses.

Instead of two semi-decent vets, a draft pick and a thank you note from Owen after he wins the Cup somewhere else?

You want to trade away another top end young guy before he gets anywhere near his prime? Why?

It's cold here in Western New York, and will be for a while, but I'll take it over what they are seeing in poor California. Can't even imagine https://www.cnn.com/weather/live-news/los-angeles-pacific-palisades-eaton-wildfires-01-08-25/index.html Life-threatening fires are spreading rapidly across the nation’s most populous county, destroying homes and forcing tens of thousands of Los Angeles County residents to flee, as strong and unpredictable winds fan the flames. Los Angeles County boasts the largest population of any county in the nation, with about 10 million residents. By early Wednesday, more than 50,000 in the Los Angeles area had been told to evacuate due to the wildfire threat. First responders are working hard to help the most vulnerable of those residents. Video from Tuesday night shows fire officials helping residents evacuate a Palisades assisted living facility, some clutching walkers, many being pushed in wheelchairs. The fires have burned thousands of acres, and firefighters are not yet to be able to contain them.

That's on the team chemistry and focus. They do not possess a tenacious shut down mind set to say the least.

Seriously. What next, Krebs on a shootout?

i rode my motorcycle in the rain

It's just so hard to win! Thank goodness we got one, that was dramatic!

And if he "doesn't" I say he was cheated, we need more goals counted in certain areas, the goal counting machines are corrupt, dead goalies making saves! Stop the goal steal now!

If they have any hope of joining the playoff chase, they must rattle off some wins. As of Sunday afternoon, they trailed the Ottawa Senators, who held the second wild card spot, by seven points. They also must pass seven teams – the Columbus Blue Jackets and Pittsburgh Penguins had 40 points, the same total as Ottawa – to reach that final playoff spot. That second wild card spot might be easier to snag than in past seasons. Washington earned it with just 91 points in 2023-24. Entering Sunday’s schedule, Ottawa was on an 86-point pace. The Sabres finished with 84 points last season and 91 in 2022-23. https://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/with-final-playoff-spot-there-for-taking-sabres-struggling-at-halfway-point/

He had some super nice passes and was really good on the PP. How many assists has he had in those three games? Quinn on the wall on the PP might just be the thing that gets the PP moving in right direction.

Quinn looks really good coming off the wall on the PP. 2025 will be a nice year if Quinn is the solution to our PP ills

??

Glass half full take: They got a point where most teams wouldn't have, in order to collapse they actually do have to play really well to get a lead before a collaspe, so there is that, and Quinn actually might be the answer on the PP, he is really good operating off the wall.

...if not impossible

I posted a preview before that was out of bizzaro world, saying we had just played the Red Wings. This one is better https://www.nhl.com/avalanche/news/game-preview-01-02-25 Buffalo Sabres (14-20-4) @ Colorado Avalanche (23-15-0) 7 p.m. MT | Ball Arena | Watch: Altitude, My20, Altitude+ | Listen: Altitude Sports Radio (92.5 FM) Winners of their last five games, the Avalanche begin 2025 with a matchup against the Buffalo Sabres. This is the final meeting between the teams this season, as the Avs came back from down 4-0 to beat the Sabres 5-4 in Buffalo on December 3. Thursday’s matchup features two teams with defensemen that produce offensively. Colorado leads the league with 100 points (18g/82a) from blueliners while Buffalo is fifth with 88 points (18g/70a). Latest Result (COL): WPG 2, COL 5 Latest Result (BUF): BUF 2, DAL 4 Closing Out 2024 with a Win The Avalanche beat the Winnipeg Jets 5-2 at Ball Arena on Tuesday to win their fifth-straight game and improve to 23-15-0. Jonathan Drouin posted two assists in his return to the lineup and Casey Mittelstadt scored the game-winning goal. Artturi Lehkonen opened the scoring with his 11th goal of the season at 11:51 of the first period via a net-front deflection. At 10:20 of the second period, Rasmus Kupari tied the game for Winnipeg off the rush. Scoring his second goal of the season, Devon Toews gave the Avs a 2-1 lead at 16:37 of middle frame with a shot from the left doorstep. Less than two minutes later, Gabriel Vilardi tied the game at 18:32 with a shot from the doorstep. At 7:22 of the third, Mittelstadt deflected Manson’s right-point shot for his eighth goal of the season. With the Jets pushing to tie the game, Mikko Rantanen tallied his 21st goal of the season with an empty-net goal at 18:31. The Avs took a 5-2 lead at 19:53 of the third with Ross Colton’s 11th of the year via an empty-netter. In net for the Avs, Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 20 of the 22 shots he faced and improved to 5-1-0 with Colorado. New Year, Same Stars Nate the Great Nathan MacKinnon leads the NHL in points (61) and assists (47). He was named the NHL’s First Star of the Month of December after posting 25 points (8g/17) in 13 games. All Hail Cale Cale Makar leads NHL defensemen in points (46) and assists (35) while being tied for first among that group in goals (11). Among all NHL skaters, he’s sixth in assists. Moose Crossing Mikko Rantanen is tied for third in points (54), eighth in goals (21) and tied for eighth in assists (33). He’s posted 19 points (6g/13a) during his current 11-game point streak. History In 42 previous regular-season matchups, the Avalanche are 26-12-4 against the Sabres, including 11-3-0 since the start of the 2017-18 season. Thursday’s game will mark Bowen Byram’s first game at Ball Arena since being traded by the Avs on March 6, 2024. Byram won the 2022 Stanley Cup with Colorado and posted 63 points (23g/40a) in 146 regular-season games with the Burgundy and Blue. Defeat in Dallas The Sabres lost 4-2 to the Dallas Stars at American Airlines Center on Tuesday. Dallas’ Roope Hintz opened the scoring at 9:49 of the first before Buffalo’s Jason Zucker tied the game 31 seconds later at 10:20. After a scoreless second period, Jason Robertson gave the Stars a 2-1 lead at 2:35 before Buffalo’s Beck Malenstyn tied the game at 4:57 of the third. The Stars would take the lead when Wyatt Johnston scored at 11:32 and doubled their advantage after an Esa Lindell empty-net goal at 18:23. Scoring Against the Sabres In 17 games against the Sabres, MacKinnon has posted 26 points (11g/15a), including two goals and an assist when they met earlier this season. In nine contests against Buffalo, Makar has registered seven assists. Rantanen has posted 19 points (7g/12a) in 14 meetings with the Sabres. Sabres’ Scoring Leaders Tage Thompson leads the Sabres in goals (18) and points (30). Alex Tuch is second on the Sabres in goals (12) and points (28). Rasmus Dahlin leads the team in assists (20) and is tied for third in points (26). A Numbers Game 43 MacKinnon’s 43 even-strength points are the most in the NHL this season. 3.39 Colorado’s 3.39 goals per game are tied for the sixth most in the NHL. 10 Lehkonen’s 10 goals in December were tied for the most in the league. Quote That Left a Mark "You could tell [there was] a little extra giddy up in his step today, right away. Just hanging on to the puck, counterflowing, skating, trying to make plays." -- Avalanche Head Coach Jared Bednar on Casey Mittelstadt’s performance on Tuesday

Go Sabres!

Winning now is why I'd like him to stay, but if he doesn't want to sign an extension then I don't see why the regular rules of hockey gravity would fail to apply, of course you get as much for him as you can. I don't see just holding him for no good reason. That isn't prioritizing winning.

Not good asset management. Offer him a deal and if he declines trade him. Why keep a guy around who will be playing for another team next year? Don't really see a huge upside there. Trade him, get the pick and sign a different vet next year if he won't sign. IBut first, I'd offer him a multi-year deal to see if he stays. He has been the really only effective player on the PP. How do we not try and keep him for next year?

In this scenario are we in the running for playoffs? If so, only if we reach some deal to sign him for next year. I mean, a second round pick can be very good. Just look at JJP

What about those people that don't even know what icing is? But they watch because their friends and family watch, they don't care much about winning and losing except that it makes their friends and family happy or unhappy. That's not bad, it just is what it is So literally winning will create more fans that don't care about winning!

Heck ya!!!