LGR4GM

He's on a 2 game goal streak and has 10pts in 29games this season.

Have we talked about Tynan Lawrence enough yet? Dude is healthy and make the USHL look like his own personal beer league. Lawrence has an August bday so he is very young for the class, in fact he is almost exactly 10 months younger than Stenberg. Lawrence right now is running at a 1.86ppg pace in the USHL which puts him in 1st by .19 and the 3rd place guy only has 1.35ppg. He's literally running that league after 7 games. (5th in the USHL in ppg is the Sabres Ryan Rucinski). He is a center, he has playmaking, is a natural checker, his skating his very very good. Really the only issue I have right now is that he needs a higher level of competition imo. That all said he has all the pro habits needed and I think when he goes to college next year (Boston Univ) he will integrate really well. He is currently listed as 6' 185lbs but again with an Aug bday, he might be 6'1" 190lbs at the combine.

I am on the draft Stenberg train. I think McKenna will produce more offense in the NHL and has a higher ceiling but Stenberg is bigger Benson or more talented Doan. He is also NHL ready to a degree, he is almost a ppg player in the SHL which at 18 (he's old for his class and if he was in a lower league I would be less high on him) is the best in SHL history going all the back into the 80s I think. Only Sedin was close to his ppg rate. Maybe my mind will change, we still have WJC and the entire 2nd half of the season. McKenna can absolutely change my mind with his toolbox but I can't convince my brain to draft any more high ceiling offensive minded wingers with limited 2way ability. yes, sorry. I will edit it.

Keep (either because I like them, think it is better than a trade, or their contract makes them hard to trade) Norris, McLeod, Benson, Zucker, Doan, Kulich, Kozak, Östlund (I think Thompson will ask out) Dahlin, Kesselring, Samuelsson, and Power (I would trade him but we need bodies) Lyon and 1 of Ellis or UPL That means Tuch, Thompson, Greenway, Quinn, Krebs, Byram, Timmins, Bryson, and either Ellis or UPL are all traded or not signed. You gotta add enough defenders to keep Mrtka in Rochester next year. He's gonna be really good but he isn't ready yet.

I just feel so sad and defeated as a fan.

Idk if start it over is where I am at, but I think they need another rebuild. How much of a tear down is open to debate but this team is a spent force.

Benson deserves no more than a bridge at this point. I too love him but agree with everything said here. I think Tuch gets moved before the deadline, they are barreling towards another rebuild.

What!? It can't be! No one could have seen that coming. I thought for sure a below replacement level player would thrive on an nhl top line.

Taking out your testicular cancer just to put it into your head, seems counter productive.

I'd take Greentree.

That's not what's happening.

Because Terry is stupid and the org is dysfunctional. Nothing will change as long as Terrance thinks he's smart. You'd think 15yrs of ***** up would convince him but nahhh

Other goalies, save those sometimes, most times even.

We all know Adams needs to go. Lindy hinting at dysfunction doesn't change that.

Well that's good, Buffalo is such a position right now that using 2-3 games to figure out Greenway on the top line can't work long term won't really change much.

This is inaccurate and also doesn't show an understanding of what is happening in the rest of the league. Some of the advanced models do take into account pre-shot puck movement as well as screens, shot type, nearest defender, you could really add any trackable variable to this formula. The other part is you assume that no other team is allowing a cross ice pass for a shot, or a breakaway, or a backdoor look. Most of these models are looking at shots over a 3 year rolling average. These types of plays happen EVERYWHERE on ALL teams. Buffalo's goalies save less of them than the rest of the league. Go ahead and defend UPL or whatever, the fact remains in all metrics that get tracked for goalies in the modern era, he is anywhere from below average to bad. Sure his numbers would improve with a better defense but some of these tracking numbers would not. If he sees an extra 1xG more a start than an average goalie with a bad defense and only sees .5xG more with a good one, that washes out in numbers. Basically if he sees 10 hard shots and saves 8 versus 5 hard shots and saves 4, it's the same.

So many plays are going to die on Greenway's stick in the offensive zone.

Welcome to another excited edition of Sabres hockey. Todays questions are simple but important. WHY THE ^**($#)%&)(#&$)(*#& is Greenway on the first line? Which goalies name will be picked from the helmet and get the start tonight? Does Noah Östlund enjoy free flights from Calgary to Rochester? Did he get miles? What if Zach Benson scores a goal that isn't disallowed? Will the Universe end? What would happen if Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch both decided to drag this team into the playoffs? Would we give them a key to the city? If a goalie makes a saves in Calgary but no one is watching, is it goalie interference? Find out tonight on Sabres after dark, the show where the lines are made up and the defensive zone doesn't matter. That's right the defensive zone is like Kevyn Adams haircut, no one cares.

GSAx works like this. The league tracks every shot on the ice and they get assigned a shot percentage, which means they also have a corresponding sv%. This tells us that compared to league average (shooters and goalies) the Sabres goalies give up the most goals or they are the worst in the league. A lot of us focus on defensive breakdowns. "Of course Sabres Goalie (I won't pick on anyone specifically) allowed a goal there, the shooter was left alone on at the dot!" Ok but let's chart all the shots from that spot without a defender within 5ft (they can do this now). Let's say that it goes in 500 out of 1,000 times. That's a .5xGF if you stop it as a goalie you get +.5xGA but if it goes in you get -.5xGA. Some of you are like, "well doesn't that just add goals against!?" and no. You have to remember the majority of shots are saved. Also the majority of shots have a like a .1xGF with stuff like breakaways up around .3xGF so to get up to 10 full goals within 2 months isn't great. That means each game the Sabres goalies are allowing an extra .3goals which doesn't seem like much but image if we swung that in the opposite direction and we were saving .3 more. That means the Sabres goalies are giving up a half goal more per game than the inverse goalies. The bottom line is the Sabres are inexperienced and yes there are defensive breakdowns. All teams have defensive breakdowns. Our goalies however are the worst in the league at making saves. We aren't particularly high on the list of giving up HD chances (someone can look at exactly where we are) so my conclusion is 2 things. First is the defense unit (forwards and defenders) are mediocre in their coverages, when a breakdown occurs, they take forever to cover it up. Second, our goalies are not good. Ellis and UPL have not been steady at all and Lyon was good until Lindy decided he should sit for a couple of weeks. The 3 goalie rotation doesn't work and Buffalo should move 1. I favor moving UPL due to the cost of his deal.

Statistics is how. It's a reflection of shots faced and league averages.

I agree, I think it's a transition year.

Some ppl believe the earth is flat but we don't need to mention them when talking about things. I don't think anyone left cares much about the pipeline which has players years away.