LGR4GM

JJP had a good year. He went from 12g and 20a to 28g and 22a at the ripe old age of 22. He was durable playing all 82 games this season, the only Sabre to do so followed closely by Dahlin with 81gp. Lets take a look at his GF%, xGF%, HDCF%, and xGF/60 (goals for %, expected goals for %, high danger corsi for %, and expected goals per 60mins of toi) At 5v5: 57.01gf% (2nd), 51.46xGF% (2nd), 48.84hdcf% (3rd), and 2.75xGF/60 (2nd). JJP was one of the best forwards on the team this past season and outside of Quinn having a higher xGF/60 the other players above him are gone (Mitts and Okposo). While ever Sabre needs to better at hdcf% and should be under Ruff, JJP took advantage of his opportunities and we see that reflected in his 28goals this season. PP stats: 68.75GF% (8th), 81.63xGF% (8th), 75.76HDCF% (8th), and 5.1xGF/60 (8th). Once again we find one of our better producers just turning into muck on the pp. There is so much evidence the pp is just total ***** and should be burned and never spoken of again that the fact they did nothing all year to address it is... something. Why did this happen to JJP and Benson? Hard to say but it could be that the 2nd pp unit was just nowhere near as good as Tuch, Thompson, Cozens, Skinner and Okposo all come out looking better. I think for me it says that like Benson there is more scoring to unlock here and we should be able to next season. Final thought on the numbers is that once the line of JJP - Tage - Tuch was put in place they managed 156min toi and in that time managed a 72.22GF% while only having an xGF of 43.95. Interestingly that xGF goes over 50% when it is JJP with just Tage and when it is JJP with just Tuch in the limited minutes those players were paired together. I think there could be a case that the xGF% is low because they used their really good shooting skills more than relying on HD chances which would have pumped up the xGF more. It is a time when talent is beating out chances and to be honest, that might continue. JJP only shot at 12.4% so he isn't some crazy sniper with an unsustainable number (Reinhart shot 24.5% on a career avg of 13.6% for example, buyer beware). Peterka had about as good of a second season under the circumstances as we could have hoped for. He was solid defensively while being quite good offensively to the point he replaced Jeff Skinner. I think there is still more though and getting more pucks to HD areas will help some of the imbalance we see between actual and expected goals. Yes good shooters will outperform their xGF regularly but in JJP case, I want to see the uptick in assists I think he can generate. Still it appears as though JJP himself can get to the good shooting areas and convert. I hope it continues and I hope he continues to improve. He added 18 more points this past season, 16 of those goals, so there is a good chance that with more scoring and a better system his assists totals rocket up as well. I don't think looking at him as a 25g, 35a guy is too crazy. What a great 2nd round pick he is and what a great move up to get him (traded 38 and 100 to get up to 34).

Sidenote: Benson had a 11.22sh% this season which is higher than I thought. do I mean the poster or Briere?!?!?!????

I don't have a comparable, that's for sure. 18yr olds at his size, but with his game, in the NHL already and holding their own? That's gotta be a massively short list but I will say that in his draft year, Mitch Marner was a comparable I saw. I think they play different though.

I mean... they did draft Zach Benson which was something I would have done... so maybe he does. Let's try something. Dear Kevyn Adams, don't ever draft a Leinonen with a 2nd round pick again, thanks. ... now we wait.

I went with "whatever" in the poll. I think Ruff can work, his Marty interview was great yesterday and much better than his presser. That said, my issue goes back to process. They wanted Ruff and they got Ruff, that doesn't mean they are wrong but it also calls into question their ability to objectively judge the coaches available. With all that said, I think I feel whatever because until the team under any coach shows us they get what it takes to win at this level consistently, it is all just window dressing to me. Lindy can only do so much and the players have to realize they are to blame for the state of the franchise just as much as any coach.

If you sign Toffoli for 2x3.5mil I think that is perfectly reasonable and not a hinderance at all to Levi, Quinn, or JJP. At worst it only overlaps those new deals by one year and Levi isn't going to break the bank. JJP probably needs to be signed this summer and Quinn, you might want to see what he looks like healthy but I would expect an absolute explosion from him next year. Still, I think you can manage the 1 year overlap on those contracts, especially if you move on from Skinner via trade this offseason or via buyout next offseason. You buy him out next offseason and you save roughly 6-7ish mil against the cap that first year which is all you need to get to the other side of Toffoli.

Brugler of the Athletic has the Bills trading up to 17 and taking Brian Thomas Jr. That was/is his final Mock before tonight.

Well, he proved me wrong. I consistently said we should send him back but by March, he was turning into one of our top 6 forwards. Let's take a look at how he did as a rookie 18yr old in the NHL. We will look at xGF, GF%, HDCF% and xGF/60 (expected goals for %, actual GF%, high danger corsi for, and expected goals per 60min of toi) Let's start at 5v5. Zach Benson finished the year with an xGF of 51.25% and an actual GF% of 47.95% in 886mins of ice time. His HDCF% was 48.62%. At 5v5 on the Sabres that would rank him: 4th in xGF, 21st in GF%, 8th in HDCF%. One last stat is xGF/60 (lead by Jack Quinn with 2.96, so expect a massive year from him next season) where expected goals are adjusted for TOI. Benson is 10th on the team at 2.57 xGF/60. Now these stats are for alllllll the players we have and even though we might be a bit down on this team, we have some really good defenders. Next let's look at the same comparison but just forwards at 5v5: 3rd in xGF, 9th in GF%, 4th in HDCF% and 7th in xGF/60. So what do I think this means? Well, he knows how to generate chances but could be more efficient using his TOI to do it, that said, he's already really good at this. Second, he needs to better at finishing chances himself and also he will greatly benefit from a linemate like Quinn who can finish the chances Benson creates. That actual GF% shows IMPO a lack of finish and the need for better linemates, something he got as the season wound down. Finally, while his high danger corsi is 4th on the team (actually 2nd because Okposo and Mitts were above him, JJP is the other) his rate of finishing those chances and preventing HDCA drops to 8th, showing again there is work to be down both in limiting chances against better and finishing his chances better. Next, the PP. Benson got 75mins of PP time which ranks him 8th out of 9 forwards that got at least 50min of PP time. That said and this is really really important, 78min for Okposo, 70min for Olofsson, and 157min for Mitts are all up for grabs now. I suppose we can just take all of Okposo's and hand that directly to Quinn. Again we see the same issue with his actual GF% which is 50% meaning that the pp was bad for young Benson. He is last in GF%, xGF, HDCF%, and 2nd in HDCA/60.... so he is generating chances really well but I am going to guess that there are several PP where his unit ain't great. Now the good news is that I think a better coach will easily rectify that and his high danger generation is just a hair below Thompson per 60mins. Also the on ice sv% is abysmal at 66.67% which is over 12% lower than the next guy... so not great at all. Could be that Benson's game needs some work on the PP to help get these numbers back up or it could be that he was the victim of some truly questionable tending. What is the takeaway from all of this? At 5v5, Zach Benson is a borderline 2nd line winger already and there is good indication he is well on his way to 1st line winger levels of play. His shot needs to be improved and probably some of his passing but with better linemates such as Quinn and Cozens, I think we will see him adapt rapidly (anecdotally we did see this in the last bit of the season). That line only played 67mins together at 5v5 and while their actual goals ended up 4for and 5against, their xGF was 54.14 so they were tilting their ice in their teams favor. I would expect their actual goals to catch up. At the very least we have a small glimpse into the ability of Benson to be a 2nd line winger and the results aren't bad at all. Further we can see a player that consistently can title the ice in his teams favor 5v5 but wasn't perfect. I am not sure how to take his PP numbers but perhaps he just wasn't that good there. The PP will look completely different this season so that will be a something to look at. For a kid who played his rookie season as a true 18yr old in the NHL, being 3rd, 9th, 4th, and 7th on your team for forwards in xGF, GF%, HDCF% and xGF/60 is a great starting point. Skating and shooting need improvements but the underlying metrics are there and I feel as he gets stronger and faster, the actual metrics will start to climb up towards the predictive metrics. Hell of a year for a kid that went 13th overall and won't be 19 until May. Next up, we will look at JJ Peterka.

3.5 for 3 years works

He said while watching the playoffs, he felt about 50% of the goals being scored involved a tip, screen, or scrum in front. It was really good to hear and he indicated he's already talking to the remaining coaches on what the Sabres need to and shouldn't do. Mentioned going over video.

Lots of ppl thought Power would be a physical player, hits are but one part, and that's never been his game.

No I don't. That's idiotic and stupid. Adams has no idea who I even am.

Don't be so small. It isn't about me, just like the fan salute thing was bigger than that. I hope Ruff rights the ship

You want me to say deliberately deceived his audience instead? Adams knowingly and purposely made it sound like he conducted a more extensive search than he clearly did. They wanted Ruff and they got Ruff.

He lied. Didn't need to.

Called it. Again, I don't like being lied too.

Nothing in the post you're responding to says "hit stuff". Power needs to learn to use his size better. You're trying to pick a fight. It's boring, I'm bored now.

I agree, size can't be taught. Maybe they can teach him to use his size better, Quinn and Benson would be good teachers.

"No one has ever said this!" Very next post talks about Chara and Hedman, 2 players being used because of their size and... physicality. Lots of ppl think Power will be more physical because of his size. It's never really been his profile but hey @PerreaultForever you keep on keeping on.

Lindy sounds infinitely better today in this interview with Biron. Make me feel a bit better but that roster surgery is gonna make or break it.

Adams needs to look at Rosen, Kulich, Östlund, and Savoie this offseason and decide which two he is keeping and then use the other two to improve the actual NHL roster while they are still young high end prospects. There is no future roster that makes sense with Tage, Quinn, JJP, Benson, Cozens, and then all 4 of the listed guys above. The time to make a decision on them is now, Östlund I could stand waiting a full NA year on before deciding anything but Kulich, Rosen, and Savoie we have a pretty good idea of what they are. The GM needs to project out who he wants and then package the spare to improve the actual NHL talent on the team. My pick is Rosen as a part of a package.

You're not the first to suggest this but there is no spot for that player currently on this team. JJP - Tage - Tuch Benson - Cozens - Quinn where are you putting that player and who are you displacing to do it keeping in mind Jeff Skinner will be on the team next year as far as we know to this point? Novikov is not going to earn one at camp because he simply will not beat out one of the 5 other better LHD we currently have. Let's look at it, Dahlin, no chance. Power, no chance. Byram, no chance. Muel, no chance. Johnson, tiny chance but Johnson was really good and completely misused by Granato and I disagree that Novikov is overall better. Okay so what if we put him on the other side, while he just failed to beat out 5 guys and he isn't beating out Clifton. So he is now the 7th defender at best and you aren't putting Novikov in Buffalo to sit in the press box. Further Adams should be looking to make it even harder for Novikov to make the team. 2025, sure I will be more than interested in Novikov making the Sabres, but not now. Idc that he is a rookie, I care that he literally isn't better than 5 other LHD and at minimum 6 other defenders. Furthermore you are advocating for them to add to the right side. Lets say they dump Joker and add a better RHD. Now you have the following, Dahlin, Byram, Power, Samuelsson, Clifton and new RHD... none of which Novikov is beating out in 6 months.

I don't think all of them were truly interviewed. They wanted Ruff and got Ruff.

Stillman makes 1.35million. Jost makes 2million. I don't understand your point at all, this meant basically nothing for Buffalo this year. Adams shouldn't have signed such low value players, yes, but them playing in Rochester is basically irrelevant. You know there were more of them, like who?