LGR4GM

It will only be getting worse. Portfolio is down 6.75% compared to 2 months ago now. My complaint is that there is nothing I can do and it sucks.

jfc.

I think the issue is when Tage or JJP are getting stopped we don't have a backup way of scoring goals regularly. All shooters go through cold periods and we've seen that. Buffalo is a one dimension offensive team still.

xGF% is the division of xgf and xga. To answer your question, yes more shots against would raise the xGA and since Buffalo is not shooting as much you get that discrepancy. The way expected goals work, is each spot on the ice has a sh% more or less. So what is the average sh% from this spot in the ice over the entire league. This, as has been debated here, doesn't take individual skill into account so Thompson shooting from 10ft out is the same as Benson in the metrics. It helps to normalize and adjust for shots. The better models look at shot type, speed, and they are starting to examine pre-puck movement. xGF is basically better corsi because it doesn't treat all shots the same. Teams that are -xGF% (so they are below 50%) are the teams that don't make the playoffs and lose more games. That is the general correlation and takeaway.

I firmly believe this board as delved more greedily and more deeply into the Sabres issues and remedies than the Sabres own front office has.

They'll win the lottery this year or next.

If it drags on long enough, I do believe the Sabres will be in jeopardy of leaving.

I suppose we're talking Martone versus... everyone not named Desnoyers and Frondell? So there is a good list.

Side note, 5th or 8th isn't making or breaking this team.

You know how I know you're a Bruins fan?

Sadly, the Sabres front office ignores inconvenient information.

Yea, the team isn't good enough. I think we need to be open to moving a top 6 forward and 2 defenders or we're gonna be outside again looking in.

No I'm saying using "single digits" and "over 12%" was a deliberate attempt to obfuscate the numbers. I generally feel typing 15 instead of 14 is just a mistake.

The Canadians have spoken.

Nashville might have jumped over us for a minute but I don't think so? That would have been it. We have been in 4th for quite awhile. Boston imploding is something to see though, 9 straight losses.

This bothers me a ton. The Sabres mantra is just "we should sneak into the playoffs" as opposed to "let's win the GD league"

Why didn't use the actual numbers? Why did you make it sound vastly different? Don't call me a schill when you deliberately obfuscated the numbers in order to attempt at strengthening your point. Zach Benson has .7 primary assists per 60 compared to .2 2nd assists. Kulich is .3 and .2 in the same categories all while playing with better linemates much of the year. Lets take out 2nd assists. That would put Kulich at 1.4pts/60 and Benson at 1.3pts/60. Kulich's most TOI: Thompson and Peterka at 137 and Thompson and Benson at 58 Benson's most TOI: Krebs and Quinn at 87 and Cozens and Quinn at 63.. followed closely by Kulich and Thompson Kulich has 3 gwg to Benson's 0. I didn't look at all the GWG to see if Benson had any fun assists in there. FTR, I don't think Benson is worlds better than Kulich. Kulich could 100% end up the better player long term.

Also I am calling this out for being deliberately misleading and the type of ***** we shouldn't do. "Is shooting single digits" acting like it is some type of massive gap and OMG! when in reality if you had used the actual numbers... Kulich: 12.0%... not over, at. And he only has 14goals from everywhere I have looked so I think you accidently gave him an extra one. Benson: 9.7% They are 2.3% different in their sh% and you deliberately made it sound like a vast gulf. It was lazy and I dislike the subterfuge. It is a 2.7 goal difference for Kulich if he shot at Benson's level.

No it isn't. His goal scorer is much better. Their production is about the exact same per 60mins of ice time. 1.6 Kulich and 1.5 Benson.

We were never at pick 3 though. We went from pick 4 to pick 6.

But they wouldn't be to start next season. Tage, Peterka, Tuch, Zucker, McLeod... one of those guys gets into the top 6 and the other 2 end up on your 3rd line until injuries happen. I agree we need another top 6 forward but it has more to do with depth than anything. That is not what you said. "But this year, among all the guys you listed (Even Cozens) I think he has clearly been the best overall player to me." He has not been the best overall player, best goal scorer, yes. Best overall, no.

Should now note that since Jan 17, Noah Östlund has 17g, 16a, for 33pts and only 4 of those are PP goals. That is 33pts in 29games or 1.14ppg which if he had done the entire season, would put him in 9th overall in the AHL for ppg. If you adjust for age, that would put him in 4th for players 24 and under in the AHL. Note, I am saying if he had played at this pace all season, which he did not.

Depends on if Levi can adjust his positioning for NHL shooters and read plays at NHL speed.

This is not correct. He has been the best goal scorer which is not the same as best overall player. That distinction would fall to Benson. Kulich is running a -5.1 xGF and is primarily using his excellent shot while being, mediocre defensively. He scores at 1.1gp/60 and 1.6pt/60 Benson is running a +1.5xGF and is primarily being shuffled all over the lineup and into different roles while being above average defensively. He scores at .6gp/60 and 1.5pt/60. So you get less goals but about the same offense with Benson while getting better overall play driving metrics. You are drastically overrating Kulich based on his great shot while missing out on his otherwise "just ok" play outside of that shot. That said, both Benson and Kulich will have to be better in all facets of the game.

I think the reason ppl are okay with the forwards is because overall the team has produced enough offense to be a playoff team. I don't disagree with what you wrote about but Cozens is gone and Norris is in his place. Kulich and Benson getting better is highly likely just because of their ages, personally I want them to be better defensively as again, there is enough team offense. You are right though, Krebs, Benson, and Kulich are all similar in offense but that is what a 3rd line looks like even on a playoff team. It is probably a bit low as those guys should be in that 35pt range but that's what a 3rd line does. Ottawa's 10-12th scorers at forward are in that range for example. Again, my issue isn't we need to find more scoring, it is that we allow too many goals and chances against. I could see an argument where we don't produce enough chances for but the problem comes down to sloppy defense and bad goaltending. I need Kulich, Benson, Norris, and Quinn to be good defensively for this to go anywhere. I am fully open to replacing one of them with a more proven commodity.